2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[sethlad]

The push for Brigatin has to have been on the back of the talk for the Dunaden camp - maybe they are trying to get a better price.
One thing's for sure - if Brigatin win's on Wednesday, he'll be $6 cup favourite come Thursday morning.

Yet in the same article there was some love for TDB & he's drifted?

seth

 

[Deliverance]

Attrition is usually brutal in the last week but he cant improve his position & the Lexus winner
will jump over him & Shahwardi (possibly Brigantin if he doesnt win @ Geelong)

seth

Cheers mate, trying to learn a bit about it all.

 

[Ilike2play]

Updated Melbourne Cup OOE

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/as... Elimination Order 1st Acceptances Oct 22.pdf

seth

Manighar is 3rd on OOE but not in any betting markets?? I'm guessing it's not running ?? Should it still be in the OOE ??

 

[half_back_flank]

He's out for the Spring.

http://www.smh.com.au/sport/horseracing/manighar-tops-list-of-early-casualties-20121011-27fqi.html

It happened a couple of days after first acceptances, he won't be there when the second acceptances come out next Monday.

 

[Ilike2play]

Ok mate cheers

 

[half_back_flank]

The push for Brigatin has to have been on the back of the talk for the Dunaden camp - maybe they are trying to get a better price.

One thing's for sure - if Brigatin win's on Wednesday, he'll be $6 cup favourite come Thursday morning.

His form looks to be franked, beating Shahwardi, convincingly beating Americain plus the beating of Dunaden 18 months ago.

However Americain (with a decent trainer) and Dudaden are obviously different propositions in Australia, they thrive here like few other internationals have. Shahwardi looks like he enjoys Australia too, however with a half decent run Gatewood would have won the HP.

He'd want to come out and blitz them on Wednesday to justify his price at the moment, let alone what they make him if he actually wins.

 

[Mobythepom]

Trying to work out where the cut will come. We know Manighar and Seville are out but info on the others is hard to find. Out of the top 35 I have the following as likely nons: Southern Speed, Midas Touch, Niwot, Precedence, Moudre and Prairie Star. That would mean Brigantin may just nick the last spot once the Lexus winner is inserted. Trouble is there's next to no info on some of these. Can anyone shed any light on whether I've missed out any likely nons or whether any of my list are actually likely to run?
Impressed with Dunaden but surely the weight will mean it's a place only bet. For me, Mount Athos has a lot in hand on this field. The position will become a lot clearer after Wednesday, hopefully.

 

[iluvparis]

Yet in the same article there was some love for TDB & he's drifted?

seth

On TVN on Sunday morning he basically said - if Brigatin brings his best form he will smash Dunaden at the weights.

 

[mayhem]

Trying to work out where the cut will come. We know Manighar and Seville are out but info on the others is hard to find. Out of the top 35 I have the following as likely nons: Southern Speed, Midas Touch, Niwot, Precedence, Moudre and Prairie Star. That would mean Brigantin may just nick the last spot once the Lexus winner is inserted. Trouble is there's next to no info on some of these. Can anyone shed any light on whether I've missed out any likely nons or whether any of my list are actually likely to run?
Impressed with Dunaden but surely the weight will mean it's a place only bet. For me, Mount Athos has a lot in hand on this field. The position will become a lot clearer after Wednesday, hopefully.

Question is how good is Mount Athos?

"He's as good a chance as I've had," Cumani said.

 

[sethlad]

Trying to work out where the cut will come. We know Manighar and Seville are out but info on the others is hard to find. Out of the top 35 I have the following as likely nons: Southern Speed, Midas Touch, Niwot, Precedence, Moudre and Prairie Star. That would mean Brigantin may just nick the last spot once the Lexus winner is inserted.

You have better info than me if you think any of these 4 wont be there.
M Touch runs in MV Cup & should press on,Niwot a certain runner,Bart runs everything & Moudre
should be there

seth

 

[the good maggot]

Trying to work out where the cut will come. We know Manighar and Seville are out but info on the others is hard to find. Out of the top 35 I have the following as likely nons: Southern Speed, Midas Touch, Niwot, Precedence, Moudre and Prairie Star. That would mean Brigantin may just nick the last spot once the Lexus winner is inserted. Trouble is there's next to no info on some of these. Can anyone shed any light on whether I've missed out any likely nons or whether any of my list are actually likely to run?
Impressed with Dunaden but surely the weight will mean it's a place only bet. For me, Mount Athos has a lot in hand on this field. The position will become a lot clearer after Wednesday, hopefully.

I would have thought all these I have bolded are still on track for the Cup.
The ones I can see not running from the top 35 are Manighar, Southern Speed, Ethiopia, Seville, Glencadam Gold.

Seth - do you have any insight on possible ins and outs?
Is Voila Ici definitely pressing on at this stage?
Thoughts on Glencadam Gold pressing on?

 

[the good maggot]

Ha sorry Seth, as I was typing my post you read my mind and replied first!!!

 

[sethlad]

Seth - do you have any insight on possible ins and outs?
Is Voila Ici definitely pressing on at this stage?
Thoughts on Glencadam Gold pressing on?

Incredibly I hear they are both definitely pressing on,GG absolutely no doubt,some doubt on VI?

seth

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Incredibly I hear they are both definitely pressing on,GG absolutely no doubt,some doubt on VI?

seth

You're kidding?! Why?

 

[sethlad]

Just the facts,explanations cost extra:

http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/gle...bourne-cup/tabid/83/newsid/10344/default.aspx

seth

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Just the facts,explanations cost extra:

http://www.racingnetwork.com.au/gle...bourne-cup/tabid/83/newsid/10344/default.aspx

seth

Maybe the Europeans are giving him a sling to act as pacemaker?

 

[sethlad]

Maybe the Europeans are giving him a sling to act as pacemaker?

Certainly not the worst thing to have pace in the race,to the 800m point at least.
Not good for a few in the low 30's in the OOE though

seth

 

[PieBeast]

Francesca is on SEN in few minutes to talk about European entries and to make us all worked up.

 

[mayhem]

Francesca is on SEN in few minutes to talk about European entries and to make us all worked up.

Video link up ?

 

[iluvparis]

You're kidding?! Why?

Because Gai has proven multiple times she has NFI when it comes to the cups.

 

[Ari]

Francesca is even hot on the radio. It's bizarre.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Francesca is even hot on the radio. It's bizarre.

Rooster Cogburn likes this.

This yellow card is annoying.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I got you Brah.

 

[half_back_flank]

Here are Gai's excuses for him:

http://www.gaiwaterhouse.com.au/news/detail.asp?iNews=10507&iType=29

One thing I learnt as a trainer long ago is that in this caper, you need an outer skin. Otherwise you won't cope with the naysayers, the I told you so people or any of the other palaver that goes on after a horse loses. But like any good team should in any aspect of sport or life, we have put our heads together to figure out how we can improve; how we can get better in the future?
Rob opened Glencadam Gold (Refused to Bend x Sandrella) at $5.00 and he told me, it was backed into $4.00. Now I read in the paper that our English import is out to 40/1 in the Melbourne Cup! It is simply amazing how a horse can blow in the market as a result of one race. Was Glencadam Gold's form leading up to the Caulfield Cup weak? I don't think so. He was running good time and winning very convincingly. Yet on one below average run he has drifted to huge odds in the Melbourne Cup.
It is just remarkable the records outside barriers have in big Cups. The outside alley certainly did not hinder the winner yesterday. A prominent trainer told me that Jimmy used too much petrol in getting to the lead, but I don't think he did. I though he rode a good race. The pressure was on from the start and there was no furlong where Jimmy could give his charge a breather. By Cup time, the fence was also starting to get a bit chewed up. In a staying race, when a Sydney horse hits the hill at Caulfield and their stride changes, your betting ticket is in grave danger. This certainly happened to Glencadam Gold yesterday. When a front runner changes stride, they lose all momentum and rhythm and cannot win; again, Glencadam Gold was a victim of these circumstances yesterday.
I would like to remind everyone that the prices are based on the public's opinion. Nothing else. Glencadam Gold was a clear favourite yesterday and it was because the public, both at the track and in the pubs and clubs, felt he was the best chance in the race. Straight after the race, the questions started. Has he come to the end of his preparation? I don't know. I am a great believer in letting the dust settle. Once we all get over the run, that is the horse, the owners, the trainer, we will have a discussion. You can't judge the immediate future straight after the race.

 

[iluvparis]

A few points

1 - Glencadam Gold ran almost exactly the same time at Caulfield on Saturday as he did in winning the Metrolplitan
2 - Jimmy said he in fact did get a couple of cheap sectionals during the race in his post race interview
3 - Mrs Onassis basically won the last race right up against the fence

But by all means throw him into the Melbourne Cup field Gai - at least you'll ensure a genuince pace for the first 2000m or so.