2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[sethlad]

Most corporates have reacted to the quarantine news by firming up those on the 1st flight
TDB is $51 to $21 @ Sportingbet although you can get $41 @ TAB

seth

 

[uptheblues]

Most corporates have reacted to the quarantine news by firming up those on the 1st flight
TDB is $51 to $21 @ Sportingbet although you can get $41 @ TAB

seth

Pretty sure I saw on twitter there was a bet of $5000 on TDB at $51 on Sportingbet yesterday

 

[half_back_flank]

Most corporates have reacted to the quarantine news by firming up those on the 1st flight
TDB is $51 to $21 @ Sportingbet although you can get $41 @ TAB

seth

And Bet365.

 

[sethlad]

Pretty sure I saw on twitter there was a bet of $5000 on TDB at $51 on Sportingbet yesterday

$5k e/w @ $41 apparently,not sure how long the $41 @ TAB will last with Betfair at mid 30's

seth

 

[sethlad]

Godolphin's Colour Vision missed a place in the Doncaster Cup last night so I doubt he's coming.
Willing Foe runs in France tomorrow night in a strong race & would need to win or go very close.
Lost In The Moment was nomd in French race & Irish St Leger & didnt accept in either,not sure what that means?

seth

 

[sethlad]

Appears Soumillon is keen to ride TDB:

Tac continues to thrive

Tac de Boistron continues to please us with his work in the UK, settling well into quarantine and keeping good company next to Dunaden.
Tac de Boistron will be reunited with Christophe Soumillon for his upcoming Melbourne Cup campaign - the champion European rider a big fan of the horse.
"As soon as we bought him he rang me to tell me how much he loved the horse and how keen he was to stick with him," Michael Kent said.
A lead-up to the Melbourne Cup is yet to be decided - the Geelong Cup and Caulfield Cup the options, with a crack at the latter likely if there happens to be a bit of rain about at the time.

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

Apologies for raising the Cox Plate but Afsare at $50 on betfair for the Cox Plate seems like overs to me. He's in quarantine and booked for the first plane.

Trained by Cumani and his last run was a second in the Arlington Million at Group 1. I've heard it wasn't the strongest edition of that race but this isn't an epic Cox Plate either.

We don't have much of a guide on internationals in the cox plate, Grandera, Silvano and Greys Inn are the only ones to come to mind. But Cumani's an astute trainer, he's aware of the tight nature of Moonee Valley and he thinks this horse has the right attributes (good acceleration).

 

[KardiniaPark]

Will Pierro & MJ go to the Cox? That already makes it pretty tough to win.

 

[sethlad]

Ebor runner up Royal Diamond last night won a strong Irish St Leger.
Winner wont be coming but franks Ebor form of Willing Foe who runs in France tonight.
Third was Brown Panther who chased home Mount Athos last time.



seth

 

[sethlad]

Apologies for raising the Cox Plate but Afsare at $50 on betfair for the Cox Plate seems like overs to me. He's in quarantine and booked for the first plane.

IMO he's probably @25/1 chance depending on who turns up but there's so many unknowns.
Wonder if they figured they were coming anyway so it didnt hurt to put him on the plane?
Handy horse but no star

seth

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

IMO he's probably @25/1 chance depending on who turns up but there's so many unknowns.
Wonder if they figured they were coming anyway so it didnt hurt to put him on the plane?
Handy horse but no star

seth

Can he lead? Rail will surely be out +2 or +3 for the Cox this year.

 

[sethlad]

Can he lead? Rail will surely be out +2 or +3 for the Cox this year.

Never seen him lead,can get a bit fizzy & miss the start

seth

 

[sethlad]

Gatewood is going to Herbert Power in an attempt to force his way into C Cup
Corey Brown booked

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

Can he lead? Rail will surely be out +2 or +3 for the Cox this year.

Cumani says he has good tactical speed. Apparently Fallon wanted to ride him closer to the speed in the Arlington Million but that didn't happen because he botched the start.

Here's the link to the race on YouTube:

 

[sethlad]

Cumani says he has good tactical speed. Apparently Fallon wanted to ride him closer to the speed in the Arlington Million but that didn't happen because he botched the start.

Yep I agree he has tactical speed but I doubt hes ever seen a track like MV or the 200m dash down the straight to find a position thats brings so many undone if they step slowly....
Elvis,G Harmonium are a couple off the top of my head

seth

 

[sethlad]

Godolphin's Willing Foe ran 3rd last night in a Gp race in France,settled midfield & ran on ok.
He looks the most progressive of their likely visitors but it will depend on weight.
Ebor win would have got him into C Cup,not so at Flemington

seth

 

[Cupper]

Does anybody know what a horse like Moudre needs to do to qualify for the cup? After his extended layoff does it make it harder for him?

 

[sethlad]

Does anybody know what a horse like Moudre needs to do to qualify for the cup? After his extended layoff does it make it harder for him?

He's high 30's in CC OOE off his M Diva placing but not sure that will help in the M Cup OOE?
Weights are out tomorrow so OOE should follow this week

seth

 

[sethlad]

Interesting piece by Steve Moran on Mick Kent & re TDB & Unusual Suspect.
Also some general racing points of interest

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/news/RVL/n_An_insight_into_Mick_Kent.aspx

seth

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Interesting piece by Steve Moran on Mick Kent & re TDB & Unusual Suspect.
Also some general racing points of interest

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/news/RVL/n_An_insight_into_Mick_Kent.aspx

seth

Great point on being able to declare overweight.

Geeez, I hope TDB doesn't jag the Geelong Cup. He'll be sent out silly unders on Cup Day if so!

 

[sethlad]

Weights are out for the 2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/as... 2012/2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup Weights.pdf

This is NOT the Order of Entry,that should be out this week sometime

seth

 

[sethlad]

Summation of weights with some relevant historical stats

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/news/rvl/n_French_heroes_top_Cup_weights.aspx

seth

 

[PieBeast]

Great point on being able to declare overweight.

Geeez, I hope TDB doesn't jag the Geelong Cup. He'll be sent out silly unders on Cup Day if so!

Couldn't care less if he steps out at ten to one on to be honest

 

[sethlad]

Couldn't care less if he steps out at ten to one on to be honest

Yep wouldnt be too upset to see him go to Flemington off a Geelong Cup win.
Especially with some moisture around.......

seth

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Couldn't care less if he steps out at ten to one on to be honest

Only if you've played the early markets.