2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[PieBeast]

Only if you've played the early markets.

Thanks Ben

 

[sethlad]

Trading Alert: 1st Order of entry is out tomorrow (Wed).

seth

 

[sethlad]

Apologies for raising the Cox Plate but Afsare at $50 on betfair for the Cox Plate seems like overs to me. He's in quarantine and booked for the first plane.

Apparently raced on Lasix in the US,major concern for me

seth

 

[KardiniaPark]

Only if you've played the early markets.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Shutup jerkface!

 

[KardiniaPark]

Shutup jerkface!

*Shut up. Two words

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

*Shut up. Two words

It's the new lingo (language), the kids (children) are using these days.

 

[the good maggot]

Seth - in your opinion what at the chances of each of Goldolphin's 4 horses coming?
I know they generally bring 2...

 

[sethlad]

Seth - in your opinion what at the chances of each of Goldolphin's 4 horses coming?
I know they generally bring 2...

Preface this by saying these are guesses,Godolphin give no info til they are on the plane.
I wouldnt bother bringing Cavalryman & Colour Vision is too dour now IMO.
LITM was very good last year running 6th on the worst part of the track but not many win at their 2nd try
Which leaves Willing Foe,he's the right type,lightly raced & on the up but will need serious carnage to get in the race with 52.5

seth

 

[half_back_flank]

1st Order of entry:

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/as...s Melbourne Cup Elimination Order Sept 19.pdf

 

[sethlad]

Ok so what do we know from the OOE?
Of the Top 40:

Definite outs:Jukebox Jury has been retired & Tullamore is out of Spring already

Must be a doubt:Southern Speed,Ethiopia,Colour Vision,Efficient,Lights Of Heaven,Mawingo,Drunken Sailor,
Polish Knight,Cavalryman,Maluckyday,Zabeelionaire,Sapphire,Fiorente,Linton,Lamasery,Lost In The Moment,
Any of Lloyds

seth

 

[half_back_flank]

Seth do you know what the cut off was last year from the first order of entry to the final field?

Seems like the drop out is easily in the double figures within the top 50 or so.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

I just read that elsewhere, the lowest ranked starter was Saptapadi at 56th.

 

[sethlad]

Seth do you know what the cut off was last year from the first order of entry to the final field?
Seems like the drop out is easily in the double figures within the top 50 or so.

Yep it was 56 Saptapadi but it was a brutal year for attrition,especially in the last week.
Theres 7/8 definites from the 1st flight this year who will be there unless they get injured or dont settle in.
Add the horses who will win a spot & jump up the order & I dont think you want to be 50+ this year

seth

 

[half_back_flank]

Ok, thanks for that.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Still think about 11-12 internationals to go around Seth?

 

[sethlad]

Still think about 11-12 internationals to go around Seth?

Probably depends on Godolphin, theyve got 2 in the race already & another likely but not sure they'll bother bringing the 2 up in the weights?
Its quite possible that the only local bred horses in the field are Niwot & Moudre

seth

 

[iluvparis]

If you account for Seth's definitie and maybe's then the lost spots should be between those carrying 7kg's under WFA (which interestingly includes Willing Foe).

Note I have not excluded any of Lloyd's in that calculation - he has a further 4 that could pull out outside Efficient.

 

[KardiniaPark]

So Saptapadi came from 56th but does that include the ones that had auto qualifying like winning the lexus? How many races have the auto qualifying? Or can you just scrap the last two pages of the OOE? (I am a cuban sunday fan who is 104th, I assume the lexus would be his go?)

 

[sethlad]

Theres 2 options to rise in the rankings,win a race that makes you exempt from the ballot:
- 2012 VRC The Lexus Stakes
- 2012 VRC AAMI Victoria Derby
- 2012 VRC Mackinnon Stakes
- 2012 MVRC Cox Plate
- 2012 MRC Caulfield Cup

Or win a race through which the performance will attract a penalty like Geelong Cup,Metrop etc.

I believe that if horses are equal on the ballot against WFA,it comes down to prizemoney won since 1 Aug 2010.Thats how Saptapadi got in over Bauer last year,by $900

seth

 

[foxtrot36]

Probably depends on Godolphin, theyve got 2 in the race already & another likely but not sure they'll bother bringing the 2 up in the weights?
Its quite possible that the only local bred horses in the field are Niwot & Moudre

seth

Hey Seth at this stage what would your top 3 be in the big 3 races now that ooe are out.
And i know that norsqui is guarenteed a run in cc , but is it a chance ?

 

[foxtrot36]

Theres 2 options to rise in the rankings,win a race that makes you exempt from the ballot:
- 2012 VRC The Lexus Stakes
- 2012 VRC AAMI Victoria Derby
- 2012 VRC Mackinnon Stakes
- 2012 MVRC Cox Plate
- 2012 MRC Caulfield Cup

Or win a race through which the performance will attract a penalty like Geelong Cup,Metrop etc.

I believe that if horses are equal on the ballot against WFA,it comes down to prizemoney won since 1 Aug 2010.Thats how Saptapadi got in over Bauer last year,by $900

seth

why is zurella behind quintessential ? both 4yom given 50.0kgs ?

 

[sethlad]

why is zurella behind quintessential ? both 4yom given 50.0kgs ?

As best as I can work out its something to do with their international ratings.

Bensley reporting that Godolphin are leaning toward LITM & Cavalryman...no idea where he got this from? Want to bring Willing Foe but think he's too far down the order

seth

 

[foxtrot36]

As best as I can work out its something to do with their international ratings.

Bensley reporting that Godolphin are leaning toward LITM & Cavalryman...no idea where he got this from? Want to bring Willing Foe but think he's too far down the order

seth

Do you rate Zurella ? reminds me abit of ethearal ? maybe

 

[sethlad]

Do you rate Zurella ? reminds me abit of ethearal ? maybe

Please never mention that name again,still not over it.......
IMO 4yo mares dont win Melbourne Cups nowadays,Caulfield Cup possibly.

For our Avienus punter,she's been retired

seth