2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[PieBeast]

TDB already out to 38's, won't be long before he gets out to his rightful price of 50's

Have it backed for thousands but you blokes are deluding yourself if you still think he's some sort of a chance unless they race on a swamp track.

 

[sethlad]

A post race veterinary examination of Tac De Boistron (FR) revealed the gelding had sustained abrasions to both front bumpers.

seth

 

[iluvparis]

This is the same market that bet $20 Dunaden on Saturday

seth

They're not always right - I was against them on that occasion.

Find it very hard to believe you could say that run was on expectations - he was beaten over 7 lengths!

 

[iluvparis]

TDB already out to 38's, won't be long before he gets out to his rightful price of 50's

Have it backed for thousands but you blokes are deluding yourself if you still think he's some sort of a chance unless they race on a swamp track.

My sentiments exactly PB.

I will clarify I have zero total exposure to TDB or Brigantin.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Not sure what people were expecting?
If Soumillon makes the trip then be prepared,total forgive run.Probably needs some give in the track.

Gatewood will get 1.5kg IMO because he deserves a spot on his profile,not on his win today.
Maluckyday fantastic,locals best hope with Green Moon.
Brigantin,hold your breath if you bet early.

seth

I would have to think Lights of Heaven is in the discussion for best local hope.

 

[iluvparis]

Distance query maybe? (Even though she's a Zabeel).

Think the best local hope is running on Saturday though. Unless Bart gets his import to jump out of the ground.

 

[The_Doctor]

I wont be backing TDB in the race either but my opinion of him hasnt changed and if you liked him before the Geelong Cup i dont see why you would do a 360 on the back of the run. He was always going to finish in the last couple

 

[iluvparis]

Hmmm for mine there is a touch of revisionist history going on about this race/run.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Distance query maybe? (Even though she's a Zabeel).

Think the best local hope is running on Saturday though. Unless Bart gets his import to jump out of the ground.

Always going to be the case but it hit the line hard in the CC. I'll be sticking with her.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Hmmm for mine there is a touch of revisionist history going on about this race/run.

I think it's relying on what you were expecting.

 

[iluvparis]

I can't believe those that were reasonably bullish TDB before the race expected him to be beat that far and in that manor for mine.

 

[mayhem]

Anyone know if the Gondophin horses arrived yet?

 

[sethlad]

ok final TDB post from me until race day:

Horse had nil 2400m form
Horse had no good track form
Trainer declared it was a "prep run"
No pace whatsoever in the race
Horse sustained abrasions in the race
I virtually declared Gatewood

This was here for all to see in thread so Im comfortable with the result,clearly some arent,thats ok too.

seth

 

[sethlad]

Anyone know if the Gondophin horses arrived yet?

Yep theyve been here since Saturday

http://www.racingandsports.com.au/racing/rsnewsart.asp?NID=263112

seth

 

[plays tall 1]

As I understand the OOE, horses on the same weight (if equal vis a vis WFA scale) are placed in order of prizemoney. I can't find details of the prizemoney for Brigantin and Gatewood yesterday but if Brigantin won $35k it seems likely he jumps over Moudre and Lost in the Moment from 30 to 28. Then there's Manighar and Seville as confirmed non-runners. That makes him no.26. There are doubts over Southern Speed and a few others but nothing confirmed.

If Gatewood gets 1.5kg penalty it seems he would have needed over $150 k in prizemoney yesterday to move ahead of Brigantin.

Tanby and Ironstein only need a half kilo penalty to move ahead of Brigantin. They'd need to run again and win to get a penalty.

 

[KardiniaPark]

I think it goes on how far below WFA they are before prizemoney?

Seth , is there any chance of Gatewood/Brigantin going to the Lexus or do they just sit and hope?

 

[mayhem]

Just seen some pics of Brigantin through work, must have sustained a slight injury during yesterdays Geelong cup as his back leg is bandaged.

 

[Lensen]

Isn't the Geelong cup an automatic qualification race? Why does gatewood need a sufficient penalty to get a start?

 

[iluvparis]

Nah - its only a race that can get you a penalty through winning.

I think the Lexus and MacKinnon (maybe) are the only automatic qualification races left.

 

[Saggynuts]

What`s the go with the Bendigo Cup? They advertise its a qualifier.

 

[iluvparis]

Definitely not an auto qualifier - can only get you a penalty.

FYI - here are the rules for those interested:

http://www.racingvictoria.net.au/asset/cms/SRC12 site/Melbourne Cup 2012.pdf

Only the Lexus and MacKinnon are left as auto qualifiers.

 

[the good maggot]

Does the VRC have discretionary powers to delete a horse from the field?

i.e. If Unusual Suspect doesn't show something this week can they pull him from the field at final acceptances and the next highest horse take his place in the final 24?

 

[iluvparis]

From memory - they have never used it to elevate a horse over another horse into the field. So if Unusual Suspect is well up in the ballot order and accepts - there is no way they will chuck him out.

 

[plays tall 1]

Gatewood got a 1kg penalty. Rises from 41st to 36th

 

[iluvparis]

Yeeek - will be borderline now I'd reckon!