Footypie32
especias secreto
Remembering we had our worst year ever as a club last season and we only missed the finals by 3 games and percentage! If we can win maybe 4 more games and kick a few more goals, that should see us in the 8.
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Yer But....................................................
Project yourself forward in time and look back from the end of the season - what will we be saying.
Most likely* we'll be saying that we had a bad season cos we turned over 1/3 of our list and had a heap of new faces and they take time to gel
We brought in a new coach and the players take time to adapt to the new game plan
We have an inexperienced list in age and games.
Those three are the mainy's, we might also say
We only have a small core of good experienced players and they cant carry all the load
Our veterans were getting on and cant reach the levels they used to
We dont have durable players and we've had our third season of bad injuries in a row - we mustnt have worked out what's causing them yet.
*likely is a probability thing, it doesnt mean its guaranteed........
I think the most likely way for to us to get a good result is for us to have our experienced players on the park all season. If that dont happen, the position we are likely to be on the ladder will drop rapidly.
The part where I imply that needing experience to be successful applies to Port as well (and they have less existing experience than us).
To me, the best thing for both teams to do, to improve their prospects for the forthcoming season is to try to get gameday experience into their squads as fast as they can. It should be Port V Crows once a week in the preseason in game simulation training (aka scratch matches)............
Project yourself forward in time and look back from the end of the season - what will we be saying.
Most likely* we'll be saying that we had a bad season cos we turned over 1/3 of our list and had a heap of new faces and they take time to gel
We brought in a new coach and the players take time to adapt to the new game plan
We have an inexperienced list in age and games.
Those three are the mainy's, we might also say
We only have a small core of good experienced players and they cant carry all the load
Our veterans were getting on and cant reach the levels they used to
We dont have durable players and we've had our third season of bad injuries in a row - we mustnt have worked out what's causing them yet.
*likely is a probability thing, it doesnt mean its guaranteed........
I think the most likely way for to us to get a good result is for us to have our experienced players on the park all season. If that dont happen, the position we are likely to be on the ladder will drop rapidly.
The part where I imply that needing experience to be successful applies to Port as well (and they have less existing experience than us).
To me, the best thing for both teams to do, to improve their prospects for the forthcoming season is to try to get gameday experience into their squads as fast as they can. It should be Port V Crows once a week in the preseason in game simulation training (aka scratch matches)............
I'm as optimistic as anyone about the Crows' fortunes next year. However its important to take a step back and assess our aspirations in contrast to those of other teams. Next year, I see a multitude of teams possibly pushing for the last three positions in the eight. They are:
Essendon - Made the eight this year of course, played some great games against top four sides, but almost lost to Port (better than actually losing to Port I guess). Have reasonable depth across the ground, though midfield is below average. Have reason to back themselves in Hird's second year.
Footscray - Written off, but don't underestimate this lot. You didn't play in three prelims in a row without some talent. Their key bookend in Lake could make all the difference, all they need now is for one or two of their young key forwards to kick on. McCartney sounds like the breath of fresh air they needed from that senile old bloke Eade, Cordy, Roughead and Minson are nothing to laugh at, their young midfielders (Liberatore, Wallis, Tutt) showed some promise; Boyd, Griffen, Cross and a fit Cooney could make all the difference.
Fremantle - Late run with injuries crippled their finals chances, however some of their performances when they still had a reasonable list were hardly inspiring. Have all the potential in the world, but I fear many of their players are nothing more than soft front runners. Don't think Ross fits. Several key players are recovering more slowly than is ideal, cue interrupted pre seasons. Still, a strong list is a strong list.
Melbourne - After signing Neeld, I can't say Melbourne have really have done anything to suggest they will be any more competitive than in the past. Getting Sellar, Clark (and Craig) are fine if you're a challenger looking for some solid depth, but they don't really cut it in a developing side trying to force its way out of mediocrity. Great, Clark can now cover Gawn, but I can't really see this side going anywhere soon (though Trengove will be a star).
North Melbourne - If West Coast can pull top four finish from a wooden spoon with a soft draw, imagine what North could do with their cake walk. I tip them as being a real surprise package, with reasonable depth across the ground, arguably the best midfield of the developing teams, and strong rucks. Great opportunity for them to place in the eight, hell, even push the four.
Richmond - Pumped up by their supporters every year, only for them to be bitterly disappointed - but soon to be justified I believe. You don't get much better than Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt and Deledio. Will need another year for Conca, Astbury, Vickery, Browne to improve and Maric to settle. Morris and some of their other recruits could potentially provide just enough for them to squeeze into the eight.
St Kilda - Again, often written off but not to be underestimated. I personally don't rate Lyon (or Dawson, or their recently delisted spuds), and I think bringing in Watters, those assistants, and Wilkes, Saad, Milera as well as those they drafted could make a monumental difference. Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Montagna, Goddard, Steven, Gram, Gilbert possibly Milne, Hayes and Koschitzke all still have something to offer. Now just to shore up that depth and beat the teams below them.
Sydney - Ah, the team that should have dropped out of the top eight years ago to rebuild, but continually refuses to bite the bullet. Being outside of the regular footy heartlands, we don't get much of an idea of how their players are tracking. If Goodes, Shaw, Mumford and O'Keefe remain fit, then then the young brigade of Hannebery, Rohan, Armstrong, Grundy, A Johnston, JP Kennedy, Reid should be capable of driving them into the eight. Need another KPF and KPB in my opinion though.
So, with all these teams around the mark, it anyone's guess which three complete the eight. While we could be anything next year, I see us being pipped at the post by the Roos, Saints and Bulldogs. Injuries, break out players, form drops will of course change all that.
Essendon - Made the eight this year of course, played some great games against top four sides, but almost lost to Port (better than actually losing to Port I guess). Have reasonable depth across the ground, though midfield is below average. Have reason to back themselves in Hird's second year.
Footscray - Written off, but don't underestimate this lot. You didn't play in three prelims in a row without some talent. Their key bookend in Lake could make all the difference, all they need now is for one or two of their young key forwards to kick on. McCartney sounds like the breath of fresh air they needed from that senile old bloke Eade, Cordy, Roughead and Minson are nothing to laugh at, their young midfielders (Liberatore, Wallis, Tutt) showed some promise; Boyd, Griffen, Cross and a fit Cooney could make all the difference.
Fremantle - Late run with injuries crippled their finals chances, however some of their performances when they still had a reasonable list were hardly inspiring. Have all the potential in the world, but I fear many of their players are nothing more than soft front runners. Don't think Ross fits. Several key players are recovering more slowly than is ideal, cue interrupted pre seasons. Still, a strong list is a strong list.
Melbourne - After signing Neeld, I can't say Melbourne have really have done anything to suggest they will be any more competitive than in the past. Getting Sellar, Clark (and Craig) are fine if you're a challenger looking for some solid depth, but they don't really cut it in a developing side trying to force its way out of mediocrity. Great, Clark can now cover Gawn, but I can't really see this side going anywhere soon (though Trengove will be a star).
North Melbourne - If West Coast can pull top four finish from a wooden spoon with a soft draw, imagine what North could do with their cake walk. I tip them as being a real surprise package, with reasonable depth across the ground, arguably the best midfield of the developing teams, and strong rucks. Great opportunity for them to place in the eight, hell, even push the four.
Richmond - Pumped up by their supporters every year, only for them to be bitterly disappointed - but soon to be justified I believe. You don't get much better than Cotchin, Martin, Riewoldt and Deledio. Will need another year for Conca, Astbury, Vickery, Browne to improve and Maric to settle. Morris and some of their other recruits could potentially provide just enough for them to squeeze into the eight.
St Kilda - Again, often written off but not to be underestimated. I personally don't rate Lyon (or Dawson, or their recently delisted spuds), and I think bringing in Watters, those assistants, and Wilkes, Saad, Milera as well as those they drafted could make a monumental difference. Riewoldt, Dal Santo, Montagna, Goddard, Steven, Gram, Gilbert possibly Milne, Hayes and Koschitzke all still have something to offer. Now just to shore up that depth and beat the teams below them.
Sydney - Ah, the team that should have dropped out of the top eight years ago to rebuild, but continually refuses to bite the bullet. Being outside of the regular footy heartlands, we don't get much of an idea of how their players are tracking. If Goodes, Shaw, Mumford and O'Keefe remain fit, then then the young brigade of Hannebery, Rohan, Armstrong, Grundy, A Johnston, JP Kennedy, Reid should be capable of driving them into the eight. Need another KPF and KPB in my opinion though.
So, with all these teams around the mark, it anyone's guess which three complete the eight. While we could be anything next year, I see us being pipped at the post by the Roos, Saints and Bulldogs. Injuries, break out players, form drops will of course change all that.
Add Jacobs to that list.
He had a great year and should get better again. If he goes down long term then we're in strife!
If he plays out the season and continues his progression, giving our midfield first use (our weakest area) we should be able to hold our own against all but the top tier sides. Couple that with the friendly draw and I think we're a good chance to make the 8, provided we have a good run with injury.
O.k, lets assume that 12 wins will give us a Top 8 spot.
Here's our full draw, and some conservative predictions:
1) Gold Coast (Away) - Win
2) Footscray (Home) - Win
3) Hawthorn (Away) - Loss
4) GWS (Home) - Win
5) Port (Home) - Win
6) Sydney (Away) - Loss
7) Geelong (Home) - Loss
8) Carlton (Away) - Loss
9) Collingwood (Home) - Loss
10) Freo (Away) - Loss
11) BYE
12) St Kilda (Home) - Win
13) North (Away) - Loss
14) Richmond (Home) - Win
15) Port (Home) - Win
16) GWS (Away) - Win
17) West Coast (Home) - Loss
18) Geelong (Away) - Loss
19) Essendon (Home) - Win
20) Freo (Home) - Loss
21) Brisbane (Away) - Loss
22) Melbourne (Away) - Loss
23) Gold Coast (Home) - Win
That's 10 wins, based mainly on this season's form for all clubs, weighted a bit by past history/how the teams match up, and of course home ground advantage. I know that Port - even this year - is far from a given, while there's a strong chance that we'd drop at least one of the Essendon/Footscray/Saints games at home. Still, for the sake of early predictions I think that's a pretty fair start.
So, if we're going to make the 8 where can we pinch the other two games?
Sydney in Rd 6 is a great chance. We have matched up well against them for the best part of 10 years and even at our lowest point this season we managed to beat them. Certainly not one that you would probably expect to win, but you'd go in feeling like we're a chance.
Brisbane in Rd 21? They'd expect to improve this year and the Gabba has never been a good venue for us. For that matter Brisbane has been a problem for us historically. Still, any game against a bottom 4 side is one that you have to look at as an opportunity.
We have Home games against West Coast in Rd 17 and Freo in Rd 20. On paper you'd expect both to be better sides than us this year over the course of the season, but with the home ground advantage you'd have to pencil them in as possible wins - albeit optimistic ones. At this stage of the year some luck with injuries might come into play here. A full squad for us and a few key players missing for them might see us over the line.
Those are the best 4 chances that i see to win the two remaining games that we need to make the 8.
Beyond that we're looking at other chances here:
13) North (Away)
22) Melbourne (Away)
That leaves these other games where we have nothing to lose:
3) Hawthorn (Away)
7) Geelong (Home)
8) Carlton (Away)
9) Collingwood (Home)
10) Freo (Away)
18) Geelong (Away)
Taking the more optimistic route you could argue that we only have those last 6 games as automatic losses. It's not even out of the question to jag one of them. That would leave us having to win 12 of the other 16 games.
Here's our full draw, and some conservative predictions:
1) Gold Coast (Away) - Win
2) Footscray (Home) - Win
3) Hawthorn (Away) - Loss
4) GWS (Home) - Win
5) Port (Home) - Win
6) Sydney (Away) - Loss
7) Geelong (Home) - Loss
8) Carlton (Away) - Loss
9) Collingwood (Home) - Loss
10) Freo (Away) - Loss
11) BYE
12) St Kilda (Home) - Win
13) North (Away) - Loss
14) Richmond (Home) - Win
15) Port (Home) - Win
16) GWS (Away) - Win
17) West Coast (Home) - Loss
18) Geelong (Away) - Loss
19) Essendon (Home) - Win
20) Freo (Home) - Loss
21) Brisbane (Away) - Loss
22) Melbourne (Away) - Loss
23) Gold Coast (Home) - Win
That's 10 wins, based mainly on this season's form for all clubs, weighted a bit by past history/how the teams match up, and of course home ground advantage. I know that Port - even this year - is far from a given, while there's a strong chance that we'd drop at least one of the Essendon/Footscray/Saints games at home. Still, for the sake of early predictions I think that's a pretty fair start.
So, if we're going to make the 8 where can we pinch the other two games?
Sydney in Rd 6 is a great chance. We have matched up well against them for the best part of 10 years and even at our lowest point this season we managed to beat them. Certainly not one that you would probably expect to win, but you'd go in feeling like we're a chance.
Brisbane in Rd 21? They'd expect to improve this year and the Gabba has never been a good venue for us. For that matter Brisbane has been a problem for us historically. Still, any game against a bottom 4 side is one that you have to look at as an opportunity.
We have Home games against West Coast in Rd 17 and Freo in Rd 20. On paper you'd expect both to be better sides than us this year over the course of the season, but with the home ground advantage you'd have to pencil them in as possible wins - albeit optimistic ones. At this stage of the year some luck with injuries might come into play here. A full squad for us and a few key players missing for them might see us over the line.
Those are the best 4 chances that i see to win the two remaining games that we need to make the 8.
Beyond that we're looking at other chances here:
13) North (Away)
22) Melbourne (Away)
That leaves these other games where we have nothing to lose:
3) Hawthorn (Away)
7) Geelong (Home)
8) Carlton (Away)
9) Collingwood (Home)
10) Freo (Away)
18) Geelong (Away)
Taking the more optimistic route you could argue that we only have those last 6 games as automatic losses. It's not even out of the question to jag one of them. That would leave us having to win 12 of the other 16 games.
average in terms of what?
an average amount of injuries.
not the motherload like the last however many years i can remember.
If our good players play most games we will easily make the 8 with our draw.
1) Gold Coast (Away) - Win
2) Footscray (Home) - Win
3) Hawthorn (Away) - Loss
4) GWS (Home) - Win
5) Port (Home) - Win
6) Sydney (Away) - Loss
7) Geelong (Home) - 50/50
8) Carlton (Away) - Loss
9) Collingwood (Home) - 50/50
10) Freo (Away) - Loss
11) BYE
12) St Kilda (Home) - Win
13) North (Away) - 50/50
14) Richmond (Home) - Win
15) Port (Home) - Win
16) GWS (Away) - Win
17) West Coast (Home) - Win
18) Geelong (Away) - Loss
19) Essendon (Home) - Win
20) Freo (Home) - Win
21) Brisbane (Away) - 50/50
22) Melbourne (Away) - 50/50
23) Gold Coast (Home) - Win
I have us with 12 wins 5 Losses and 5 50/50's
Obviously we will drop a couple of those i have marked as wins but we will win some of those 50/50 games and may even pick up a game or 2 pencilled in as a loss. Eg. Carl and Syd away are by no means impossible i would give us a good chance in both those games. We nearly beat Carl away last year with the devil as coach and were leading Coll at 3/4 time. Another year into the young guns and a healthy squad with Sando injecting much needed hardness and confidence i wouldn't be suprised if we push the top 6. Need a good start to the year and key players firing and on the park. Yes i can remember how bad we were at times last year but we were very good on occasion as well.
Im tipping 13 wins
Need to make footy park a fortress again. I have never seen us beaten at home like we were in 2011. In previous years if we were beaten it was always a contest and game in the balance right until the death. When the bottom side (bris) came over and smashed us at home and we didn't give a yelp is when Craigy lost me.
Heafy83
Premiership Player
Top Four
Hawthorn- Were unlucky not be there on the last saturday last year
Collingwood- List is very talented and runs very deep
West Coast- As long as the oldies can stay fit. Have some very promising youngsters
Geelong- The slide starts
Bottom half of the 8
Carlton- A Key forward and backman away from top 4
Adelaide- A rejuvinated squad with a new hardness about them
Essendon- Have enough talent to make the 8 again
Richmond- Midfield starting to look leathal. Strong forward line as Vickery will be freed up. Look suspect down back
The Rest
Melbourne- Neeld and Craigy will bring a new professionalism to the club. Will miss Scully
Fremantle- Have some talent but rely on Pav too much
North- Always there abouts. Forward line is a worry
Sydney- Goodes is another year older and to me have no out and out superstars
Saint- Club is a mess
Bulldogs- Will show some promise but depth not there
Gold Coast- Those kids are a little bigger and a little stronger this year
Brissy- Probably a year or two away from top 8
Port- Club in despair
GWS- Can't see them winning a game
Hawthorn- Were unlucky not be there on the last saturday last year
Collingwood- List is very talented and runs very deep
West Coast- As long as the oldies can stay fit. Have some very promising youngsters
Geelong- The slide starts
Bottom half of the 8
Carlton- A Key forward and backman away from top 4
Adelaide- A rejuvinated squad with a new hardness about them
Essendon- Have enough talent to make the 8 again
Richmond- Midfield starting to look leathal. Strong forward line as Vickery will be freed up. Look suspect down back
The Rest
Melbourne- Neeld and Craigy will bring a new professionalism to the club. Will miss Scully
Fremantle- Have some talent but rely on Pav too much
North- Always there abouts. Forward line is a worry
Sydney- Goodes is another year older and to me have no out and out superstars
Saint- Club is a mess
Bulldogs- Will show some promise but depth not there
Gold Coast- Those kids are a little bigger and a little stronger this year
Brissy- Probably a year or two away from top 8
Port- Club in despair
GWS- Can't see them winning a game
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Bump.
With one round to go its fair to say that this season has far exceeded what any could have even dreamed about.
Now the "soft draw" is the throw away line that fires us up and while it has helped we have still (you would think) have a 17-5 H/A record after Saturday.
Its interesting to look back and see how close some very cluey posters got their top 8 and the ones down the bottom.
With one round to go its fair to say that this season has far exceeded what any could have even dreamed about.
Now the "soft draw" is the throw away line that fires us up and while it has helped we have still (you would think) have a 17-5 H/A record after Saturday.
Its interesting to look back and see how close some very cluey posters got their top 8 and the ones down the bottom.
Crows4Eva
Club Legend
When you look at this, you realize just how far we have exceeded expectations this season. Most had us somewhere between 6th and 10th on the ladder saying we'd be lucky to scrape into the 8 and here we are possibly finishing top 2 after this weekend.
Deaneus!
We Await Silent Tristero's Empire
I didn't originally post in this thread but somewhere else I'm on record saying we'll finish 10th I think. Egg, meet my face.
funny lots of people thought Carlton would be top four... which I'd have agreed with, but they've sucked instead.
funny lots of people thought Carlton would be top four... which I'd have agreed with, but they've sucked instead.
A couple of people picked 7 of the top 8, a pretty good performance. Obviously, Carlton was the pretender. One of them had St Kilda 9th for good measure (and Adelaide 10th).
Most people had a pretty good handle on the bottom teams - many had the bottom six right.
Footypie32
especias secreto
Ouch! Thanks Shultzy.
Might need to get my crystal ball shined before next years predictions!
Some of my most notable blunders were obviously Carlton, Us, Melbourne and Sydney. At least I picked West Coast to finish 4th! Also pleased to say I picked Essendon to miss the finals.
The Big Sauce
Brownlow Medallist
Meh, if Hawthorn beat WCE I'll get both of their positions correct. I have been bullish about Freo all year, they have charged home. Was too conservative about Adelaide and I plain misread Sydney.
My bottom six is pretty accurate if you swapped Port & Melbourne round.
Drugs Are Bad Mackay?
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jenny61_99
Premium Platinum
Captain Dangerfield had us as dead men walking. all Trigg and Craigs fault apparently.
all Trigg and Craigs fault apparently.
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Hard to predict so early given potential pre-season injuries could kill clubs chances of making top 8, but i'll give it a go:
1.Collingwood - Too many A-Grade Players. With a new coaching structure i expect them to make the GF;
2.Hawthorn - If they can avoid injuries to key players i think they have the 2nd best squad;
3.Carlton - Some gun players, cant see them winning th GF withought a KF stading up, maybe Kruzer is the answer. Anything less that a top 4 and Roos will be the next coach;
4.Sydney - Cant believe how well they have refreshed their squad. I think they will be underated, but if they can implement a more attacking style of play it would not surprise me if they made the GF;
5.Geelong - Great List but not as good as the last 3-4 years. Some Aging players and important retirements cant see them winning it in 2012;
6.Fremantle - Good young list with some A-Grade players. With Ross adding structure i can see them making a GF in the next 3 years;
7.Essendon - Continue to build impressive list. Not top 4 yet;
8. Adelaide - Injury prevention/management and structure is key. Our List is young and impressive. Could climb to as high as 6th;
9.Richmond - Like there young list. This team is going places. Wouldnt surprise me if the made top 8;
10.West Coast - No chance of having the type of year they had in 2011. Almost everything went right fo them;
11.North Melbourne - Like their list and midf group is real impressive. KPPs are a concern. Doubt they are ready for top 8;
12.St Kilda - Who knows
13.Melbourne - Will take time. Trying to make these players stronger physically and mentally. No finals this year;
14.Brisbane - Highly competitive this year, but lacked class. Same story next season;
15.Western Bulldogs - Worried big time for them. Their list is in trouble;
16.Port Adelaide - I think they will be more competitive but not enough class to compete for top 8;
17.Gold Coast - Continue to improve;
18.GWS - To Quote Matt Rendell 'Shocking'
Not too bad.....
7 of the top 8 right and had North in 9th, I'll take that! But lulz to the Butcher comment...
FR0GGY
From a cartel villa in Tuscany
Make it a point for every position the team is away from there finishing position. Ie brisbane will finish 13th so if you had them 8th thats five points. Do it for each team, add up your points and see who has the lowest and hence was most accurate.
obviously will need to be done after the weekend.
obviously will need to be done after the weekend.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
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