2012 Predictions Pt.II

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No he was just talking uninformed rubbish and as he backpeddled he just became more and more wrong, nothing new there.

As for our zones, well they couldn't be too good as we had more points kicked against us than any team in the 8 (+482) and even 4 sides outside the 8 had less kicked against them than us.

West Coast on the other hand were very good.

for the first 10 rounds your zone worked vv well hence i think what mad tiger was saying that ess was up and about early in the season then you got tired had injuries etc.
 
1) Carlton
2) Hawthorn
3) Fremantle
4) Geelong
5) Western Bulldogs
6) Collingwood
7) St kilda
8) West Coast

9) Port Adelaide
10) Adelaide
11) Richmond
12) Essendon
13) Gold Coast
14) Brisbane
15) Sydney
16) North Melbourne
17) Melbourne
18) GWS
 
for the first 10 rounds your zone worked vv well hence i think what mad tiger was saying that ess was up and about early in the season then you got tired had injuries etc.

Pretty sure what madtiger was trying to say is Richmond are going to finish above Essendon and he's desperately trying to base it on something.

I'll be happy to have a wager with him/her on Essendon finishing above Richmond this season.
 

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Pretty sure what madtiger was trying to say is Richmond are going to finish above Essendon and he's desperately trying to base it on something.

I'll be happy to have a wager with him/her on Essendon finishing above Richmond this season.

maybe but i guess its a prdiction thread and there is some way out 1's postered on this thread.
 
Gone a different approach, and leaving out my team (North) and ladder positions, so can't be accused of bias.

Collingwood - Same Pies of last two years, structurally and tactically very good, enough stars in Pendlebury/Swan/Cloke etc to finish top 4 no matter what

Hawthorn - Same with Collingwood, have a great combination of good structure/tactics/star power/depth. No doubts about them for me over the H&A season, whether some of their players can last the distance to the GF..have to wait and see (Rioli, Hodge, Gilham all always seem to have niggles)

Carlton - Confident that Jamison and Henderson will hold down FB and CHB, while Gibbs and Lucas step up to help Judd's game (as I predict he will struggle with his shoulder), and Walker/Garlett/Betts can kick 40+ goals each, a top 4 spot beckons. Prelim final at max though.

Geelong - Too old. Too slow. Too good? They still have the quality in Bartel/Selwood/Johnson/Enright etc, but the combo of Ling, Ottens, Mooney and Milburn were good for being the matchwinenrs 1 or 2 games a year, and that, combined with Scarlett, Chapman and Corey a year older and more prone to being rested, means they will drop more H&A games imo. Games such as round 3 vs North, where North will hopefully be firing and looking for a good start, whereas Geelong will just be easing their way looking at the big picture, are games that are now droppable for Geelong that haven't been in the past. Will still make prelim, possible GF.

Sydney - With their website home page containing articles such as 'Gaz putting setbacks behind him' 'Nipper setting the pace' 'Mumford fitter then ever' etc, they should be able to get the same quality out of the old folk (Goodes, McVeigh, O'Keefe), while also having what I predict to be top 10 B&F finishes by Rohan, Parker, Gordon and Lamb (Mumford to win), so will see stability and improvement. They have a good first 11 rounds up to their bye, with only games they may not start favourites in being vs Hawthorn in Tassie, and Essendon & St Kilda @ Etihad. If Essendon and St Kilda aren't playing well, they could be 10-1 at the halfway point. Think they may continue to lose to the top 4 teams, but 7 or 8 losses would be easy 5th, likely top 4.

Fremantle - Barlow. Mundy. Morabito. Sandilands. Those 4, with the exception of Morabito, are all proven quality players (Morabito hasn't much of a chance). Those 4, all also had injury riddled 2011s. If they don't make a serious jump up, with Lyon installing a defensive side to players such as Hill and Mayne while also being smart enough to have a game plan that suits Patersons, then there is something wrong imo. They have the players. They have a coach that took a team with 'duds' :rolleyes: (some on Bigfooty are incapable of seeing a role player for what they are, good players who top teams need) such as Dawson, Clarke, Dempster, McQualter, Eddy and Kosi to a replayed grand final. They have a good home ground advantage. They have an above average fixture in terms of onfield success. They have FYFE. Top 8 is a must. Top 6 is an expectation. Top 4 depends on injuries.

Essendon - Much the same as 2011, but drop less games to bottom 10 and win less vs top few. Continued improvement from Hurley, Zaharakis, Melksham, Carlisle and Crameri, the return of Winderlich and Dempsey, more games from Watson and Pears, and more consistency from Ryder, Stanton and Reimers. They are what Bombers fans should be pinning their hopes on. I just don't see if that will make the Bombers a chance for the top 4 in 2012. Don't rate Licka and Dempsey the same as many Dons fans do, don't see how Watson and Pears will both play 22 H&A games, and don't see how all the young guys will all transform into guns in the one year.
Much the same, in terms of wins, position, and positive statistics (very specific there... :eek: )

West Coast - Will drop a bit imo, no reason, just other teams will go past them while Glass/Embley/Cox are a year older, and waiting for the majority of their youth to get to 50+ and break out (Masten, Shuey, NicNat, Scooter, Mackenzie, Darling, Lycett etc) I'm aware some already have done 50+ or whatever, but the Eagles need for all of them too do it to take the weight of the old blokes shoulders. This will be the blip on the Eagles radar as they continue their way to a very open window come 2015ish.

Melbourne - Neeld will attempt to install a hard, professional edge, on this 'bruise-free' team. I don't know if he can do it. If for some peculiar reason Neeld reads this and actually cared what a keyboard warrior said, then that's a challenge. Pretty boys like Sylvia, Petterd and Watts (who Neeld has already challenged) sometimes seem to care more about their tans, abs and hair then their footy. Those 3 in particular have more talent in their little fingers then most do in their entire bodies, and sadly, I think only Watts will get the most out of himself. The other 2 just don't have the playing style for mine.
Green needs to give up the captaincy to either Trengove or Grimes. Grimes seems to be the chosen one, but he is atm injury prone and may have missed the boat. Gawn is gone for the season (I think) and so Martin will again have to play out of his skin if Jamar goes down. Can he do that? Moloney needs to develop consistency, but their defence I believe is super for the level of experience/age. Garland and Frawley FB and CHB (not respectively), Rivers can help chop out, then Grimes and Blease can provide accountable rebound, while Tapscott has a booming kick and Bartram can hold a small forward down. Unfortunately, in 2012 I predict the Demons mid and forward lines will let the defence down.

Adelaide - 6 games vs GWS, GC, Port (will drop 1 to Port you would think). That is surely enough to get them out of the bottom 4, but you never know. Maybe if Vince stayed indoors, Porplyzia stayed on the field, a CHB stayed in the club, Walker and Tippett stayed in the top 12 for the Coleman, and Rutten, Thompson and Johncock stayed the great players they are...they could finish close to the top 10. Not sure why I put them above St.Kilda, but it doesn't really matter. If the only thing wrong in my prediction was having to swap Adelaide and the Saints around...well, I would basically be Nostradamous?? himself. Expect Sloane to announce himself with a B&F, just ahead of Thompson and hopefully for Crows fans, Tippett or Walker.

St.Kilda - The hardest team to predict imo. Amazing top end talent, imo very poor depth. So they could realistically finish anywhere from 3rd to 14th imo. Settled for somewhere in between (closer to 14th, but anyway). The return of Gwilt will be mid season, Hayes is 30+ with a knee reco, surely not even Lenny himself could return to Norm Smith form, the departure of Dawson will hurt as it will mean Fisher has to be more accountable, while a youngster will have to be blooded down back. These are all negatives, as well as things such as Riewoldt/Kosi/Ray/Peake a year older and maybe a foot slower (Riewoldt won't, but it's possible).
The thing that makes the Saints hard to predict is the positives - Hayes returning, Gilbert and Riewoldt hopefully past 2010-11 summer fiasco, McEvoy, Armitage and Steven all continue to improve, new players such as Saad have immediate impact etc.
Time will tell :)

Brisbane - Underrated due to the recruiting of 'Crazy Vossy'..or should I say trading. I'm not sure if it was all under him, but they have Rich, Redden and Rockliff all guns recruited under Voss, as well as the unknown but extremely talented at AFL level Polec, Green and Bartlett. And that's just the midfield! Add in Leuy/Hudson for 2012 as ruckman, and Leuy/Longer as future, Black helping out, a very good defence and a trio up forward of Karnesiz/Brown/Cornelious who can provide 6-10 goals a game (preferably 10), that's got to get them out of the bottom 4.
Injuries will again be a big factor, as Merrett, Patfull, Maguire, Adcock, Drummond (basically their entire defence), Brown (CHF & captain) and Staker are all injury prone. If the majority of those play 20 games, then 8-10 wins easy, if the majority have injury riddled seasons, uh oh...

Port - Surprising maybe, but they were able to win 4 games and lost 3 close ones, where they had good leads late in the game (GC, Essendon, Brisbane-less so). So potentially, despite it being a rabble and a season from hell, it could've been a 7 win season. :eek: Add in better (less injuries, more games) performances from Hartlett, Salopek, Cassisi, Butcher, Pittard, Pearce and Ebert, the arrival of Ebert and Wingard for some extra depth and quality, and a more organised pre season with some new coaches, there has to be some improvement. A long way off the top 8 imo, but there are positives.

Richmond - My harsh prediction. Expecting to be swamped by Tigers supporters. Hopefully they don't give a shit, but if they do, well it's only a prediction. But I just don't see how 3 or 4 quality players will be able to do it all for the players 10-30, and JR hasn't had much of a preseason. Preseasons help a lot, look at Buddy 2009. Didn't have the best preseason, and while still good, wasn't at his best, so JR will struggle to be at his best.
And sometimes, you need to go backwards to go forwards. 2013 will be a top 8 year, 2012 will be a struggle. Predicting their injury toll to be ala Fremantle 2011. And yes, Cotchin will win the brownlow by polling 3 votes in all 6 Tiger wins, as well as 10 more from 5 other games.

Western Bulldogs - Again very harsh. How could a top 4 team from a couple of years back finish behind Port! Well, like I said before, Port won't be the rabble of 2011. And AFL is a surprising competition. And it's a prediction thread. So anyway, my main questions over the Dogs are:
Will Liam Jones be able to fill the hole left by Hall? My answer: Not until 2014.
Will Cooney and Lake specifically, as well as Higgins, Gilbee and Hargrave, able to return to close to best form? Lake-possible. Higgins-hasn't ever played to his potential, so yes. The others=no.
Will the Dogs be able to have a ruckman who is as able as Hudson was to bully the opposition around, as well as being quality? Not in 2012 for me.
+ they are a year older, and I think for the Doggies unfortunately it is a waiting game until their youth such as Wallis, Liberatore, Jones, Roughead, Cordy, Howard and Tutt are guns...window closed.

GC - Expecting a heap of improvement from the Suns, not just in terms of wins. Expecting percentage to be a lot better, expecting them to show the rest of the AFL how to play at Metricon with a couple of unexpected wins, expecting Swallow, Bennell and Caddy to be together a very formidable trio. But can't see much more then 5 wins from them, and I reckon they will also drop one to GWS. But Suns fans will see many positives after what will be seen in hindsight as a very successful Suns year.

GWS - Will be worse then GC of 2011 imo. Scully/Ward/Palmer/Davis are nowhere near Ablett/Rischitelli/Brennan/Bock, and players like McDonald, Cornes and Brogan will be not heavy contributors to winning games, only teaching the youngsters. Patton, the apparent superstar, won't have a preseason. Folau is unknown. Hard to see them get off the bottom.

That's my prediction without North in the ladder. (And yes they will complete the season for all trolls out there)

Premiers: Collingwood
Brownlow: Trent Cotchin
Coleman: Lance Franklin
Rising Star: Nathan Gordon
MVP: Scott Pendlebury
 
Gone a different approach, and leaving out my team (North) and ladder positions, so can't be accused of bias.


Richmond - My harsh prediction. Expecting to be swamped by Tigers supporters. Hopefully they don't give a shit, but if they do, well it's only a prediction. But I just don't see how 3 or 4 quality players will be able to do it all for the players 10-30, and JR hasn't had much of a preseason. Preseasons help a lot, look at Buddy 2009. Didn't have the best preseason, and while still good, wasn't at his best, so JR will struggle to be at his best.
And sometimes, you need to go backwards to go forwards. 2013 will be a top 8 year, 2012 will be a struggle. Predicting their injury toll to be ala Fremantle 2011. And yes, Cotchin will win the brownlow by polling 3 votes in all 6 Tiger wins, as well as 10 more from 5 other games.

Hmm, everybody seems to think that Richmond only has 3-4 players and the rest are absolute rubbish. That's really not the story. Whilst our depth is not as strong as most other teams, we have many players who do do their job.

Top Tier: Every team has their cream, this is ours, arguably stronger than other teams, but as the past has shown, top end talent has dragged the weight of lesser skilled players on their shoulders.

Cotchin
Martin
Deledio
Riewoldt
Newman


Very Good: These players are not necessarily elite, but they are all respected for their talent and would make most sides best 22.

Rance
Vickery
Houli
Nahas
Foley


Average-Good: All young developing teams around the 7-12 mark have these types of players, not every team can be like Geelong.

Tuck
Jackson
Edwards
Maric
Grigg
King
Post


Whilst the rest are your developing young players/untried who have shown that they can play footy.

Conca
Batchelor
Griffiths
Astbury
Dea
Ellis
Grimes
Helbig


I can understand how one can simply judge teams on performance instead of potential. However, Richmond is improving at a steadily rate. We were touted as potential finals performers last year. Remember that in our B&F, in our top 10, 6 were under 24 years of age. Natural development will increase us on the ladder alone.
 
1. Blues
2. Hawks
3. Cats
4. Magpies
5. West Coast
6. North
7. Richmond
8. Adelaide

9. Essendon
10. Fremantle
11. Melbourne
12. St Kilda
13. Brisbane
14. Sydney
15. Port
16. Bulldogs
17. Gold Coast
18. GWS

With the teams anywhere from 6th - 12th interchangeable.

GF: Hawthorn d. Carlton
Rising Star: Stephen Coniglio
Brownlow: Brett Deledio / Marc Murphy tied.
 

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  1. Hawthorn
  2. Carlton
  3. Collingwood
  4. Fremantle
  5. North
  6. Geelong
  7. Crows
  8. Richmond
  9. West Coast
  10. Sydney
  11. Demons
  12. Essendon
  13. St Kilda
  14. Brisbane
  15. Bulldogs
  16. Gold Coast
  17. Port
  18. GWS
IMO there are going to be quite a few surprises this year.
Though really the positions of any of the sides from about 7-13 are interchangeable.
 
Top Tier
1) Hawthorn
2) Collingwood
3) Geelong

Second Tier
4) West Coast
5) Carlton

Third Tier
6) North Melbourne
7) Richmond
8) St. Kilda

Fourth Tier
9) Fremantle
10)Sydney
11) Adelaide
12) Brisbane

May be competitive at times tier
13) Western Bulldogs
14) Melbourne
15) Essendon

Bottom Tier
16) Gold Coast
17) Port Adelaide
18) Greater Western Sydney
 
Top Tier
1) Hawthorn
2) Collingwood
3) Geelong

Second Tier
4) West Coast
5) Carlton

Third Tier
6) North Melbourne
7) Richmond
8) St. Kilda

Fourth Tier
9) Fremantle
10)Sydney
11) Adelaide
12) Brisbane

May be competitive at times tier
13) Western Bulldogs
14) Melbourne
15) Essendon

Bottom Tier
16) Gold Coast
17) Port Adelaide
18) Greater Western Sydney
I dont see how you can put Brisbane and Adelaide in the fourth tier and essendon in the lower
 
I dont see how you can put Brisbane and Adelaide in the fourth tier and essendon in the lower
I rate Brisbane and Adelaide higher than I rate Essendon whom I don't rate at all. I can see where Adelaide and Brisbane's improvement will come from however I cannot see where Essendon's improvement will come from, in fact if anything I see them detracting from what they achieved last year.

Sure you played some good footy in 2011 but your list is extremely overrated. Outside of Watson you lack serious power in the midfield. You don't really have genuine power to kick you a winning score and your backline is mediocre at best.
 
I rate Brisbane and Adelaide higher than I rate Essendon whom I don't rate at all. I can see where Adelaide and Brisbane's improvement will come from however I cannot see where Essendon's improvement will come from, in fact if anything I see them detracting from what they achieved last year.

Sure you played some good footy in 2011 but your list is extremely overrated. Outside of Watson you lack serious power in the midfield. You don't really have genuine power to kick you a winning score and your backline is mediocre at best.

Well I don't no what you mean by power to kick a winning score, if you mean power up forward theres plenty. We have Pears, Hooker, Carlisle as well as Hurley who can play down back, and expect improvement from guys like Melksham, Zaka, Heppell, Hurley, Carlisle, Pears, belly and basically our whole list bar the few that are over 25
 
Well I don't no what you mean by power to kick a winning score, if you mean power up forward theres plenty. We have Pears, Hooker, Carlisle as well as Hurley who can play down back, and expect improvement from guys like Melksham, Zaka, Heppell, Hurley, Carlisle, Pears, belly and basically our whole list bar the few that are over 25

No there really isn't anyone up forward for you capable of kicking you a winning score against a half-decent defence.

Melksham - highly overrated, has speed nothing much more

Zaka - Actually Zaka, I see improving.

Heppell - He has played 1 good year playing spare man in defence. May improve, or may plummet due to second year blues or any other undisclosed reason. However if I was to put a bet on it, I'd say he will maintain his output from last year - seems like the guy who can have an immediate impact in his first few years but will take a few years to really excel.

Hurley - Whilst he has an obvious abundance of talent it's a bold prediction to say he will improve this year. Everyone said it about him last year, he did improve however no way did he reach expectations.

Carlisle - I like the guy but again encouraging signs from late last year doesn't automatically mean he will improve enough to really effect an Essendon rise

Pears - One of the players that may go backwards.

Bellchamers - Severely overrated. Showed signs but is not near good enough against other first choice rucks and simply doesn't have enough variety in him to play as a second ruck.

The improvement in Adelaide and Brisbane's players should exceed the level of improvement in Essendon. Furthermore they both have more depth and won't have players who will halt or go backwards, which I can do see occuring at Essendon. You're still a couple of years off. While yes, you did show character last year there is still gaps which require fixing.
 

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2012 Predictions Pt.II

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