2012 Predictions Pt.II

[00Stinger]

Wrong. In the western derbies of 2009 , 2010 and this years first derby, sandi absolutely monstered Cox in all.

NN is superior at tap rucking at the moment as is zac at mobility around the ground. You'll never see NN racking up possessions like zac.

The 2009 & 2010 derbies that Cox was playing on 1 leg?

Zac does not have the mobility that NN does, you are kidding yourself.

 

[Swanhotels]

Go and have a look at footywire.com and look up zac stats, you'll be surprised.
Zac is looking like being one of the steals of the 2008 draft (pick 36).

Using SuperCoach and DT stats to back your arguement, you are actually a moron.
Zac Clark is not in the same postcode as NicNat, Clark has played a handfull of good games. Im not saying he isnt a good player im just saying he is no where near as good as Natinui, NicNat will improve again this year as well.

 

[AG]

Nat is an impact player, doesn't need many touches to have an influence.

Same with Sandilands v Cox. Cox has always accumulated more of the ball, so simply using stats as a measurement is always dodgy.

 

[Swanhotels]

Pies will dominate again, Cloke will have a monster year.
Swans to finish top 4
Hawks to dud up again and finish 8th but whinge about injuries and being close to 08 form despite 08 being 4 years ago.
Freo to finish 6th
GC to finish 11th
GWS to be belted by 200+ points on at least 4 occasions.
Port to stink again
Ablett to win the Brownlow from Pendlebury
Tigers to finish 9th

 

[mufassa]

5. Essendon. Massivly underated around here. Have a very very talented list and Hurley will tear teams apart this year. Midfield is much better than people realise especially with Zaharakis and Melksham continuing to develop. Watson is absolutely elite and with a much better fitness base I expect my beloved Bombers to push the top four.

Around here?? You do know they at equal 9th in the betting to make the 8? The market is correct you are around the 8th,9th,10th best team. Your midfield is a huge concern.

 

[hank31]

I think 3/4 are locks for he top 4 in Geelong, Hawthorn and Collingwood

I agree we will be somewhere around that logjam, but with that group (WCE,FREO,ESS,NTH,SYD,STK,RICH) possibily even Carlton if they under achieve, so a top 4/5 spot wouldnt be out of reach for the teams that manage to have a good year out of that group. Even for your precious Nth Melb.

On exposed form from last year, out of that group i see the only 3 realisticaly having a dip at 4th,5th and 6th as Carlton, West Coast, Essendon and Freo.

And before you tell me im bias which i could well be, my reasons for Essendon improving are:
2nd year under a new coaching structure, things will start to click more.
Another (hopefully generally injury free) solid pre-season under new to the club fitness guru Dean Robinson
Natural improvement from youngsters like Melksham, Heppell, Zaharakis, Carlisle, Hurley, Pears, Hardingham, Myers, Bellchambers, Ryder etc.
We haven't lost anyone of note on or off-field accept B.Mcartney.

So why wont Essendon improve?

 

[hank31]

Around here?? You do know they at equal 9th in the betting to make the 8? The market is correct you are around the 8th,9th,10th best team. Your midfield is a huge concern.

As are your talls minus the ruck stocks. Petrie is the only forward or defender worth anything apart from H-Mac and Goldstien.

That exact same midfield managed to get us to the 8 this year. Couple that with natural improvement, I think we should be a-ok.

 

[Frank Steen]

12. Melbourne. Massive loosing culture that Neeld will take a while to turn around. Good talent just been very very poorly developed and need to spend a year learning how to play hard football.

I wouldn't quibble with your assessment of Melbourne (and I'm sure many Dee's supporters feel the same way) and Neeld himself has said that it will take some time to toughen the team up.
(Remember not that long ago Geelong were the handbags).
I'm hoping the team finishes around 10th or 11th!

FWIW Collingwood 1st, Hawthorn 2nd, Geelong 3rd and maybe West Coast 4th.

 

[AG]

Natural improvement from youngsters like Melksham, Heppell, Zaharakis, Carlisle, Hurley, Pears, Hardingham, Myers, Bellchambers, Ryder etc.

No such thing as natural improvement. Ryder is the perfect example. If there was such a thing as natural improvement he'd be a superstar now. Some of those guys might be delisted in two years for all we know. Too many variables in a football career to say improvement is natural.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

No such thing as natural improvement. Ryder is the perfect example. If there was such a thing as natural improvement he'd be a superstar now. Some of those guys might be delisted in two years for all we know. Too many variables in a football career to say improvement is natural.

of course there's natural improvement. It may not be a constant or something that will occur for every single player, but many players will improve the longer they are in the system. A perfect example is David Zaharakis. He has demonstrated natural improvement since he was drafted. I'd like to see how you disprove that.

 

[AG]

Of course some will show improvement. It's either improve, stagnate or not make it. Someone has to improve. Zaharakis has, but saying it's natural for a group all players is wrong.

Sydney will win the flag in 2013 because Reid, Rohan, Hannebery, Mitchell, Kennedy, Mumford, Johnson, Smith, Walsh, White, Parker will show natural improvement.

Am I right. No, because some could stagnate and some could be delisted. But like Zaharakis, some will improve.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Of course some will show improvement. It's either improve, stagnate or not make it. Someone has to improve. Zaharakis has, but saying it's natural for a group all players is wrong.

Sydney will win the flag in 2013 because Reid, Rohan, Hannebery, Mitchell, Kennedy, Mumford, Johnson, Smith, Walsh, White, Parker will show natural improvement.

Am I right. No, because some could stagnate and some could be delisted. But like Zaharakis, some will improve.

I would be quite frankly astonished if at least 8 of the 10 you've listed don't show improvement, and some of it dramatic.

That's not to say you'll win the flag, but I don't think the premise of young players improving is unreasonable. It's just a matter of how much they improve generally.

Some players won't, of course, but if your drafting and development is up to scratch, you should expect improvement.

For Essendon, we made the finals last year. We don't have too many players exiting the team or retiring, and hopefully won't have similar injuries that we had this year. We have a lot of players in the "young" category and not so many in the "experienced" category; therefore I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that we won't go backwards and that natural improvement in a number of younger players will ensure that.

Probably the only thing that would prevent that is if there's more natural improvement in a number of other teams tbh.

 

[mysainters]

Geelong to finish top of the ladder again, rounded out in some order by Saints, Hawks and Carlton.

Collingwood to finish bottom half of the eight with a strong finish to the season.

Brad Scott to come under fire when Roos miss the 8 again.

I will cop flack for this one, but I predict Justin Koschitzke will shine when played as a genuine utility rather than a bash and crash. Before you mock me, I said Dempster was going to surprise this year

 

[PTizzle]

Nice effort and I generally agree with some of them, but Melbourne's coach is Neeld, not Watters.

Sorry about that! So many coaching turnovers. Fixed it now.

 

[00Stinger]

And before you tell me im bias which i could well be, my reasons for Essendon improving are:
2nd year under a new coaching structure, things will start to click more.
Another (hopefully generally injury free) solid pre-season under new to the club fitness guru Dean Robinson
Natural improvement from youngsters like Melksham, Heppell, Zaharakis, Carlisle, Hurley, Pears, Hardingham, Myers, Bellchambers, Ryder etc.
We haven't lost anyone of note on or off-field accept B.Mcartney.

So why wont Essendon improve?

There are too many variable to just say they will improve naturally.

(a) Maybe teams will work out Hird's game plan in his 2nd season and you could stagnate or take a step back next year
(b) You could get killed with injuries, and your depth might be shown up
(c) Some of the mentioned players might stagnate, they may have reached their peak already. How many players burst on to the scene and never really improve a hell of alot more (Headland, Rich ext)
(d) The players may have played above themselves this year (ala Hawthorn 08)
(e) Didn't you lose an assistance coach? (betting on matches)

of course there's natural improvement. It may not be a constant or something that will occur for every single player, but many players will improve the longer they are in the system. A perfect example is David Zaharakis. He has demonstrated natural improvement since he was drafted. I'd like to see how you disprove that.

Lance, that is one player. For example next year he might become the player opposition teams tag and he may or may not be able to handle it. I hope he doesn't but he could do a knee and never reach the level he is at the moment.

I see can see why Essendon fans are so optimistic at this point in time. If I barracked for Essendon I would be, but to just say natural improvement will propel them forward is a simplistic way to look at it. The teams above and below could improve by a greater margin than you guys and that could cause you to slip.

 

[00Stinger]

=I will cop flack for this one, but I predict Justin Koschitzke will shine when played as a genuine utility rather than a bash and crash. Before you mock me, I said Dempster was going to surprise this year

Dempster wasn't 29 at the start of the season

 

[_Maximus_12]

My only prediction is that by the end of 2012, the perception of St.Kilda's lack of depth will be made a myth and plenty of young talent will only improve our chances.
Ross Lyon, was known for using role players over kids. Kids like, Cripps, Siposs, Ledger, Ross, Markworth and Newnes should all play some sort of role next year. With Stanley, Saad and Winmar finally delivering on the promise and potential they have shown.
I will admit, I won't be suprised either way, If we rise or if we fall. But I don't buy into the perception we have no depth. We just have 'Untried Youth'

 

[mufassa]

As are your talls minus the ruck stocks. Petrie is the only forward or defender worth anything apart from H-Mac and Goldstien.

That exact same midfield managed to get us to the 8 this year. Couple that with natural improvement, I think we should be a-ok.

Swings and round a bouts - power midfields are winning flags unlike when Carey was running around and Rock, Simpson and Stevens were kicking floaters to him. 2 big men made the AA squad V 0 for Essendon. Hurley is promising but your other big men - Pears Hooker and Gumby all break down a lot.

You managed to make the 8 in 2009 - did not lose much and finished bottom 4 the following year. You are as much chance to repeat 2010 than push into the top 4.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Swings and round a bouts - power midfields are winning flags unlike when Carey was running around and Rock, Simpson and Stevens were kicking floaters to him. 2 big men made the AA squad V 0 for Essendon. Hurley is promising but your other big men - Pears Hooker and Gumby all break down a lot.

You managed to make the 8 in 2009 - did not lose much and finished bottom 4 the following year. You are as much chance to repeat 2010 than push into the top 4.

no we're not. The last half of 2010 was an aberration. The club was in disarray and the playing group were not playing as a team. There's no chance of that repeating.

As for our midfield, it's a lot better than most people think. It's not the best in the comp, but it's not the worst, and it's developing a lot more class. It will be competitive.

As for big men who break down a lot: Petrie went alright this year, didn't he?

 

[TheOldXav]

Collingwood, Geelong, Hawthorn, Carlton, WC, Sydney, St. Kilda, Fremantle & Richmond having claims to have a better midfield than Essendon. Performance wise they have performed better but as far as 'natural improvement' goes, Melbourne will soon overtake Essendon in that regard too.

As far as a side in the same demographic as Essendon's midfield would be North Melbourne. Watson & Swallow are neck/neck, Hocking would be the next best at Essendon but an inferior player to North's 2nd best midfielder in Wells.

After that there wouldn't be much difference in the next bracket of midfielders.

 

[Swanhotels]

no we're not. The last half of 2010 was an aberration. The club was in disarray and the playing group were not playing as a team. There's no chance of that repeating.

As for our midfield, it's a lot better than most people think. It's not the best in the comp, but it's not the worst, and it's developing a lot more class. It will be competitive.

As for big men who break down a lot: Petrie went alright this year, didn't he?

I would say Bombers midfield is in the bottom 4 in the comp.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

I would say Bombers midfield is in the bottom 4 in the comp.

yeah, I saw your earlier post that got deleted.

Out of interest, who do you consider makes up Essendon's midfield? Which group of players do you rate so poorly?

 

[mufassa]

no we're not. The last half of 2010 was an aberration. The club was in disarray and the playing group were not playing as a team. There's no chance of that repeating.

As for our midfield, it's a lot better than most people think. It's not the best in the comp, but it's not the worst, and it's developing a lot more class. It will be competitive.

As for big men who break down a lot: Petrie went alright this year, didn't he?

Not sure how you can say that? How do you know the club again will not be in disarry and the playing group not playing as a team in 2012. History can repeat itself. It is a flip of the coin if you will have a good or bad year. Not sure how many midfields you could rank below Essendon.

Gumby's back will always be an issue as will Hookers hamstrings - he was not even in full stride when he pinged it against us - just a light jog and it went on him. Broken bones mend - like Drew's broken foot did. More hope for Pears than the other 2.

 

[Swanhotels]

yeah, I saw your earlier post that got deleted.

Out of interest, who do you consider makes up Essendon's midfield? Which group of players do you rate so poorly?

I dont know why it was deleted I wasn’t attacking anyone personally. Anyway I would think the Bombers midfield would consist of and no particular order

Watson - Elite
Melksham - Proven little and still developing
Stanton - Front runner and cant handle a tag
Prismall - Average
Zaharakis -Good player with a a lot to prove, Will be tested by taggers this year
Howlett - Average at best
Alwyn Davey - more in the forward line but pretty average
Heppell - more off half back, first year player obviously immensely talented
Hocking - very good tagger.

These are the guys I would expect to run through the midfield obviously with contrasting time.

You've got one elite player in there the rest are all pretty average, this is just my opinion but Id be interested for you to give me your take on these players, im not being smart I genuinely would like to know what you think.

 

[hank31]

There are too many variable to just say they will improve naturally.

(a) Maybe teams will work out Hird's game plan in his 2nd season and you could stagnate or take a step back next year
(b) You could get killed with injuries, and your depth might be shown up
(c) Some of the mentioned players might stagnate, they may have reached their peak already. How many players burst on to the scene and never really improve a hell of alot more (Headland, Rich ext)
(d) The players may have played above themselves this year (ala Hawthorn 08)
(e) Didn't you lose an assistance coach? (betting on matches)




Lance, that is one player. For example next year he might become the player opposition teams tag and he may or may not be able to handle it. I hope he doesn't but he could do a knee and never reach the level he is at the moment.

I see can see why Essendon fans are so optimistic at this point in time. If I barracked for Essendon I would be, but to just say natural improvement will propel them forward is a simplistic way to look at it. The teams above and below could improve by a greater margin than you guys and that could cause you to slip.

(a) I dont think the game plan is settled at all yet so im not sure how much there actually is to work out. TBH the words 'game plan' means shit, whats more important is pre planning for every opponent (the game plan will change week to week depending on the opposition) and its also about how quickly the coaching staff react to what is going on on match day.
(b)Ok so we could get hit by injuries (so can any club) and we had a few significant outs throughout the year this year.
(c) Some of them may also explode onto the scene, who really knows? Its something your list is relying on heavily also.
(d) How the F**K did you come up with that rubbish
(e) he wasn't even a match day coach, so try again. I also stated we lost nobody of note.

I did also say that I think that there is a significant log jam there, I just think out of that large group of teams, we have knocked off more contenders or top 8 teams than most of, if not all of those teams in the past 2 seasons.