grimlock
Hall of Famer
Once you take the umpire bias out of it, it's clear as crystal
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
2013 AFL Power Rankings
- Thread starter Roby
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Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
Equal disposals, equal frees, equal clearances, equal contested possessions, Adelaide crowd louder in the 4th. Lol, and you think Sydney won? Tell Roby that! He'll laugh in your face.
Formulas need moor variables.
Another deplorable week of tipping. Seriously you could only pick Geelong beating GWS and Collingwood beating Melbourne? 
Most people would have got 5 out of 6 this week.
Most people would have got 5 out of 6 this week.
PieBeast
Brownlow Medallist
Ignore the haters Robby, I'm a huge fan of the comedy relief you provide at your own expense on the weekly basis 
The Sydney hate flows through him. But yeah, picking the Saints? Come on!Another deplorable week of tipping. Seriously you could only pick Geelong beating GWS and Collingwood beating Melbourne?
Most people would have got 5 out of 6 this week.
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It's taken into account by only slightly. Sydney beating Port in AAMI has more do with the fact Port has been poor recently. What has been the margins there for Sydney in respect to other games?
HGA has been proven and studied as a real advantage in the field of psychology. There is plenty on which you can read about it that from that perspective.
Check the records of different leagues and competitions around the world, including this one, and you will clear advantages over time.
Up until now this year has been unusual, teams have performed better overall away than home. Home wins are at 50% and interstate home wins are even less at 47%. Although this could be due to a couple of factors:
Adelaide and West Coast tend to have good HGA advantage but the Crows this year have lost four games at home already while the Eagles have lost three and almost could've been four against North.
Top ranked teams like Hawthorn have played Eagles and Adelaide interstate already. Fremantle used to be poor away from Perth but their only interstate loss this year was none other than the Hawks. The Cats have played the Swans, Port and GWS all interstate this year, their only interstate home game was against the Suns.
It will be interesting to see how HGA will end up this year. As the rankings weightings, Adelaide and West Coast have lost considerable HGA this year. On the other hand, the Suns have improved massively their HGA over last year.
Also to note, the HGA weightings help to make profit this week.
Failings of predicting player outs early in the week.
Nek minnut
Instincts? You just got trolled by Lance.
Don't derail the thread and stay on topic.
- Thread starter
- #1,033
Power Ranking Round 11 - Richmond become the new Fifthmond
You can still go up in the rankings without having played a game. Richmond (5th) move to their highest rankings position… ever. This is due to the Crows (6th) absolutely abysmal performance on the weekend. Subjectively speaking, this is as bad a performance as I’ve seen this year if you discount GWS (17th) or Melbourne (18th) games. The Dees are ranked so low right now that performances against them (bad or good) are worth almost nothing. This week despite Collingwood (7th) winning by 83 points there was zero points change for them.
The three amigos become the four musketeers… or something like that
After a month in the wilderness, Sydney (4th) move back into the top four and into some kind of premiership contention… for now. BUT, it will be hard for them to move at the top of the rankings until they get revenge on the top three ranked teams. We know that they are the MOLE, Andrew Demetriou. And in this case the MOLE stands for Marketing Obligations Lure Entitlement. Having said all that, I tippet my hat on last week's performance - one of the best performances in decades according to some.
Suns of Anarchy
The Suns (8th) who are almost on equal points with Collingwood, could possibly make the finals this year. They won’t win the premiership but they may cause some problems with Baldy and Jaegar running around in September. And if they don’t they’re are still proving to be no pushover this season as the most underrated team in the competition. They have beaten the betting lines eight times this season, the outright most in the AFL and could cause some hassle to teams to trying to get in the top eight. Should be fun to watch the chaos.
Last year a projection formula that equates the power rankings and natural progression of age and experience had Gold Coast on eight wins for 2013. It seems they are ahead of schedule. The formula now predicts that they will get 13-14 wins next year with a similar draw. If they don’t make finals this year they should next year if they can maintain a healthy list. Plus they have Martin in addition for 2014.
Split the middle
There is a considerable gap between Essendon (9th) and West Coast (10th) at the moment. This means that it is very likely that the top nine ranked teams will stay the same till the end of the year.
Interestingly the biggest gap right now is between the top four and the rest of the competition.
The 8 point bye
That is how much an advantage a team gets playing an opponent coming off the bye. It's considerable and something you should consider when putting your tips in for the next few weeks.
Rankings Round 11:
1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Sydney (+1)
5 Richmond (+1)
6 Adelaide (-2)
7 Collingwood (-)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Essendon (-)
10 West Coast (+1)
11 Carlton (-1)
12 Kangaroos (-)
13 Bulldogs (-)
14 Brisbane (-)
15 St Kilda (-)
16 Port Adelaide (-)
17 GWS (-)
18 Melbourne (-)
Finally some cash back
After three weeks of losses, last week three of the five lines came up and a tiny profit was made. Losses are at 36% for the year.
Staked so far: $12.34
Current Return: $7.89
Tips: 68/96
Predicted Best Matches
Match of the round
Richmond (5th) vs Adelaide (6th)
Tigers have a bit of an edge with the HGA but they are coming off the bye, so we could be in for a cracking match. The Tigers are still expected to win by a couple of goals but so were the Blues last week against the Dons. I don’t know which group of supporters this week will be more annoyed with the loss, so let’s just hope for a draw and controversial video reviews at the end so Bigfooty can meltdown with plenty of hits.
GWS (17th) vs Port Adelaide (16th)
Real danger game now for Port. They haven’t won a game since round five against the Eagles at home and that was with umpire assistance. A loss here will mean they are likely to drop down to 17th with only the Dees behind them. Ouch.
Interesting encounters:
Essendon (9th) vs Gold Coast (8th)
Can the Suns maintain their position over Essendon? If the margin does not blowout over eight goals then yes. No doubt Hird will like Brad Scott last week say that the Suns are a dangerous side and they will just try and get the four points. But the Dons will need to do a Mafia-style thrashing if they are to move up the rankings and get closer to the end-game.
Collingwood (7th) vs Bulldogs (13th)
Both teams are blooding a lot of new players due to their high casualty rates this year. Obviously Collingwood have more class and experience so don’t expect a close game even if the Dogs are on a roll. But also because the Dogs are coming off the bye. How “convenient” that one of the few times the Pies play late in the week they don’t get the shorter six day break. It actually works against them, an easier fixture means a worse and less harden team.
Carlton (11th) vs Hawthorn (1st)
As per usual the rankings are predicting another thrashing by the Hawks who like to bulldoze anything in their way. Although the rankings maybe wrong this week, Carlton rank 6th on the Losses Competitiveness Table. So the Blues may not be made of granite but they should be a mental test for the top ranked team none the less.
Last week's rankings.
You can still go up in the rankings without having played a game. Richmond (5th) move to their highest rankings position… ever. This is due to the Crows (6th) absolutely abysmal performance on the weekend. Subjectively speaking, this is as bad a performance as I’ve seen this year if you discount GWS (17th) or Melbourne (18th) games. The Dees are ranked so low right now that performances against them (bad or good) are worth almost nothing. This week despite Collingwood (7th) winning by 83 points there was zero points change for them.
The three amigos become the four musketeers… or something like that
After a month in the wilderness, Sydney (4th) move back into the top four and into some kind of premiership contention… for now. BUT, it will be hard for them to move at the top of the rankings until they get revenge on the top three ranked teams. We know that they are the MOLE, Andrew Demetriou. And in this case the MOLE stands for Marketing Obligations Lure Entitlement. Having said all that, I tippet my hat on last week's performance - one of the best performances in decades according to some.
Suns of Anarchy
The Suns (8th) who are almost on equal points with Collingwood, could possibly make the finals this year. They won’t win the premiership but they may cause some problems with Baldy and Jaegar running around in September. And if they don’t they’re are still proving to be no pushover this season as the most underrated team in the competition. They have beaten the betting lines eight times this season, the outright most in the AFL and could cause some hassle to teams to trying to get in the top eight. Should be fun to watch the chaos.
Last year a projection formula that equates the power rankings and natural progression of age and experience had Gold Coast on eight wins for 2013. It seems they are ahead of schedule. The formula now predicts that they will get 13-14 wins next year with a similar draw. If they don’t make finals this year they should next year if they can maintain a healthy list. Plus they have Martin in addition for 2014.
Split the middle
There is a considerable gap between Essendon (9th) and West Coast (10th) at the moment. This means that it is very likely that the top nine ranked teams will stay the same till the end of the year.
Interestingly the biggest gap right now is between the top four and the rest of the competition.
The 8 point bye
That is how much an advantage a team gets playing an opponent coming off the bye. It's considerable and something you should consider when putting your tips in for the next few weeks.
Rankings Round 11:
1 Hawthorn (-)
2 Fremantle (-)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Sydney (+1)
5 Richmond (+1)
6 Adelaide (-2)
7 Collingwood (-)
8 Gold Coast (-)
9 Essendon (-)
10 West Coast (+1)
11 Carlton (-1)
12 Kangaroos (-)
13 Bulldogs (-)
14 Brisbane (-)
15 St Kilda (-)
16 Port Adelaide (-)
17 GWS (-)
18 Melbourne (-)
Finally some cash back
After three weeks of losses, last week three of the five lines came up and a tiny profit was made. Losses are at 36% for the year.
Staked so far: $12.34
Current Return: $7.89
Tips: 68/96
Predicted Best Matches
Match of the round
Richmond (5th) vs Adelaide (6th)
Tigers have a bit of an edge with the HGA but they are coming off the bye, so we could be in for a cracking match. The Tigers are still expected to win by a couple of goals but so were the Blues last week against the Dons. I don’t know which group of supporters this week will be more annoyed with the loss, so let’s just hope for a draw and controversial video reviews at the end so Bigfooty can meltdown with plenty of hits.
GWS (17th) vs Port Adelaide (16th)
Real danger game now for Port. They haven’t won a game since round five against the Eagles at home and that was with umpire assistance. A loss here will mean they are likely to drop down to 17th with only the Dees behind them. Ouch.
Interesting encounters:
Essendon (9th) vs Gold Coast (8th)
Can the Suns maintain their position over Essendon? If the margin does not blowout over eight goals then yes. No doubt Hird will like Brad Scott last week say that the Suns are a dangerous side and they will just try and get the four points. But the Dons will need to do a Mafia-style thrashing if they are to move up the rankings and get closer to the end-game.
Collingwood (7th) vs Bulldogs (13th)
Both teams are blooding a lot of new players due to their high casualty rates this year. Obviously Collingwood have more class and experience so don’t expect a close game even if the Dogs are on a roll. But also because the Dogs are coming off the bye. How “convenient” that one of the few times the Pies play late in the week they don’t get the shorter six day break. It actually works against them, an easier fixture means a worse and less harden team.
Carlton (11th) vs Hawthorn (1st)
As per usual the rankings are predicting another thrashing by the Hawks who like to bulldoze anything in their way. Although the rankings maybe wrong this week, Carlton rank 6th on the Losses Competitiveness Table. So the Blues may not be made of granite but they should be a mental test for the top ranked team none the less.
Last week's rankings.
asanque
Premium Platinum
Awesome trolling
Richmond go up after having a bye.
Pies stay the same (zero point change) after thrashing the Demons.
Hird has just read the boys the riot act. A win will not do. An 8 goal thrashing must occur if we are to move up the rankings and threaten for the flag this yeah and boy, has he delivered the message
So you're justifying the additional penalties you apply against Sydney due to the fact that they have a 9.8% cap increase for living costs? Does that mean that you penalise then 9.8% of every score because it "balances" out?
What a crock.
First off.....congrats on not losing money this week, a pleasant departure from the 2013 norm!
Care to explain how you are sitting on 69 tips???
You were sitting on 66 after rd 10-
Tips for Round 11:
Blues
Cats
Crows
Roos
Saints
Pies
(non-favourites in red)
Tips: 66/90
You only snaffled TWO.....
DHRD
Senior List
- Apr 13, 2013
- 223
- 440
- AFL Club
- Essendon
I know being an Essendon supporter will probably sound like I'm moaning, but how can 4 teams (Richmond, Adelaide, Collingwood and Gold coast) with a lower win/rate than Essendon, be higher than Essendon? Of those Teams Essendon has: 2 more wins than Richmond, and beat Richmond, 1 more win than Collingwod, and beat Collingwood, 3 more wins than Adelaide, and beat Adelaide, and 3 more wins than Gold Coast. Doesn't that seem a little strange to anyone? Or does winning games not actually factor in to the rankings?
Do we need to win by 8 goals before or after umpire adjustments?
Hoffy95
Norm Smith Medallist
Welcome to Roby's Power Rankings young n00b.
Dirty Bird
Pokémon Master
What you need to understand is that he changes tips at the last minute when late exclusions occur.
DHRD
Senior List
- Apr 13, 2013
- 223
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- AFL Club
- Essendon
Haha I've been following them for quite a while, but this week I saw them and was just like, what? Generally I can see why Roby makes some of the statements he does, even though I rarely agree, but this week was just absolute rubbish. I just really want to see how he justifies that haha
Astro Bomber
Club Legend
- Mar 27, 2011
- 2,152
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- AFL Club
- Essendon
He has all bases covered
all the noobs say this, learn the symmetric matrix fluctuations inherent in the calculations if you seek enlightenment young padwan
This just doesn't make sense. Essendon are ahead on the ladder by 3 full games, are clearly a better team, yet according to you need to win by EIGHT goals to remain ahead of GC! I would have thought that it would have been the other way around - the GC would need to beat the Bombers by at least 8 goals to go ahead seeing they are so far behind on the ladder.
I'm looking forward to the Bombers winning by 7 goals, going 4 games clear of GC but still being behind in the mighty POWER RANKINGS.
DHRD
Senior List
- Apr 13, 2013
- 223
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- AFL Club
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Cheers I'll take that on board haha. I think I just have to accept Roby is quite a few bricks short of a wall and recognise I got trolled hard.
on the contrary son, Roby is the last brick atop cheops pyramid, read his works in awe and wonderment
I think he's just pushed a bit too far with this latest troll though. I love his method of making a enough of his workings plausible that you tend to overlook some of the more outlandish statements. But I reckon he's just pushed a little too hard now.
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