2013 AFL Power Rankings

[The Prosecutor]

Finals are in September. This week is still June and therefore different. You'll get there... maybe.

So a 7-goal loss is as good as a win here for the Suns?

 

[floki]

DHRD/Haddo aliases of Roby? Can't be....

I'm no alias son, i just understand and respect the complex calculations young Roby puts into the rankings calculus.

 

[daniel_4tw]

It is somewhat amusing that people criticised Roby earlier this year for underrating Port, Essendon and North while overrating Hawks. That criticism seems to have dissipated.

 

[Roby]

Five discrepancies found this round again, ironically the only one that was not significant enough was the Dons vs Suns line, expected margin is now 36 points only three off the betting markets.

Carlton v Hawthorn – Handicap (-25.5) – $2 @ $1.94 Betfair

Fremantle v Brisbane Lions –Handicap (-45.5) – $2 @ $1.92 Luxbet

GWS v Port Adelaide–Handicap (+30.5) – $2 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond v Adelaide –Handicap (+20.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Collingwod v Western Bulldogs –Handicap (+38.5) – $1.5 @ $1.91 Centrebet

All the favourites are expected to come up this week, although Richmond is only expected to win 7 points and Port by 15 points so there could still be some upsets.

Hawks
Tigers
Freo
Port
Pies

Tips: 68/96

 

[Marklar_33]

Five discrepancies found this round again, ironically the only one that was not significant enough was the Dons vs Suns line, expected margin is now 36 points only three off the betting markets.

Carlton v Hawthorn – Handicap (-25.5) – $2 @ $1.94 Betfair

Fremantle v Brisbane Lions –Handicap (-45.5) – $2 @ $1.92 Luxbet

GWS v Port Adelaide–Handicap (+30.5) – $2 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond v Adelaide –Handicap (+20.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Collingwod v Western Bulldogs –Handicap (+38.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Centrebet

All the favourites are expected to come up this week, although Richmond is only expected to win 7 points and Port by 15 points so there could still be some upsets.

Hawks
Tigers
Freo
Port
Pies

Tips: 68/96

Something's not quite right...I mean, other than the usual...

 

[Lensen]

Collingwod v Western Bulldogs –Handicap (+38.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Centrebet

Hi Roby,

Being an experienced punter I was surprised by this bet. In all my time betting with Sportingbet (who have swallowed Centrebet and now share the same odds) they've never had $1.92 lines, always $1.91. A quick glance at their website confirms this.

Are you embellishing the odds you are getting?

 

[SuperSub17]

Roby,

When you say discrepancies are found, what exactly does that mean? How far off the betting line does the predicted margin have to be for you to place a bet on the game?

 

[Roby]

Hi Roby,

Being an experienced punter I was surprised by this bet. In all my time betting with Sportingbet (who have swallowed Centrebet and now share the same odds) they've never had $1.92 lines, always $1.91. A quick glance at their website confirms this.

Are you embellishing the odds you are getting?

That's right, Centrebet always offer $1.91. It has been adjusted.

Roby,

When you say discrepancies are found, what exactly does that mean? How far off the betting line does the predicted margin have to be for you to place a bet on the game?

Depends, but usually has to be 10 points or more for it to be considered a significant discrepancy.

 

[RobbieK]

Looks like another good betting week, 0/3 at this point.

 

[GuzzLG]

Roby you have staked $8 this round yet your current kitty is only $7.89.

If your other 2 bets don't come up its game over.

 

[doppleganger]

0 from 4

Just another 'unlucky' week again ay Robyn!

Never mind, 'lucky' Rd 13 coming up...

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

If the Pies win by 39 or more, Roby is in the red for his betting I believe.

 

[Old_Man_James]

Appears Roby was already in debt...
Staked $9 - 2,2,2,1.5,1.5
With only $7.82 in the kitty.


Mods must act to shut Roby down for trading while insolvent!

 

[swansfan51]

Collingwood on track to win by more than 38.5, giving 0/5 bets for the week

 

[year of the cat]

Only reason Hawks got over the line was the Blues being crucified by the umps - assume this will be reflected in the new ratings..

 

[Marklar_33]

Hawks
Tigers
Freo
Port
Pies

Going well when you decide to disregard tipping certain games altogether

 

[The Swans Blog]

Carlton v Hawthorn – Handicap (-25.5) – $2 @ $1.94 Betfair

Fremantle v Brisbane Lions –Handicap (-45.5) – $2 @ $1.92 Luxbet

GWS v Port Adelaide–Handicap (+30.5) – $2 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond v Adelaide –Handicap (+20.5) – $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Collingwod v Western Bulldogs –Handicap (+38.5) – $1.5 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Looks like most of your line bets aren't coming to fruition. Again.

 

[RobbieK]

Looks like most all of your line bets aren't coming to fruition. Again.

Fixed that for you.

 

[Furn2]

 

[telsor]

Only reason Hawks got over the line was the Blues being crucified by the umps - assume this will be reflected in the new ratings..

Clearly, this is a good thing for the hawks when viewed through the transmogrifier, and will put them even more firmly in the no1 spot

 

[eth-dog]

The fact that the roof was closed clearly helped Carlton so that should place Hawthorn further in front of everybody else

 

[Marklar_33]

I believe Hawks will be equal 1st with themselves, moving the next best team down to 3rd

 

[DrEvil]

Only reason Hawks got over the line was the Blues being crucified by the umps - assume this will be reflected in the new ratings..

I'm sure after Roby's full review of the game the truth that we were the ones crucified will come out.

 

[Roby]

Power Rankings Round 12 - Freo loses her virginity


Thanks to this man.

This is the first time in history that Fremantle are on top of the rankings. Even before published days. They were ruthless in getting Lyon and now as a playing group they have become ruthless themselves. Lyon has been on top of the rankings before, back in 09' he had the Saints no.1 for nearly the whole year despite not winning the premiership. Fremantle rank 2nd on the OCT behind the Hawks (2nd), which shows how much more competitive they have become. Last they year they finished 9th on the OCT, a marked improvement. They rank 4th on the UT, due to hefty key players been out for so long. When they get them back… it’s why the rankings have them first.

The streak ends

Hawks may be happy that their team is on a ten game win streak but nothing is more important the rankings. Hawks had the longest ever streak on top of the rankings, 26 weeks, which started coincidentally back in round thirteen (again that number) last year. It has now ended and it may be difficult to get back. Regardless of the win streak, the Hawks are losing ranking momentum and the last thing they want to do is lose late in the year, like in a final. The best thing that could happen to the Hawks is a loss, fortunately for them they play the Cats (3rd) in round 15.

Don’t get angry, get rankings!

Blues fans and Mick might be annoyed they were hard done by on Friday night, but remember Mick you said it yourself: it’s about process not wins. Carlton (9th) move up two spots this week and join the rat pack of teams ranked Pies (6th) to Suns (10th).

See the Tigers fly up, up (sorry Bombers fans)

Richmond’s (5th) excellent performance on the weekend showed again this year that they are good consistent team. They are unlikely to make top four this year but the “projection formula” currently has Tigers finishing top four for 2014, with Sydney (4th) dropping out. Richmond are 4th on the OCT, but also importantly 3rd on the WCT (Wins Competitiveness Table) which shows they can put teams to the sword when they take the lead.

Biggest Losers

After been in the top four ranked teams for four weeks, Adelaide (8th) drop to their original position from the start of the season. They still rank second on the Umpire Table but because they've been largely uncompetitive, ranking 13th on the UCT, they have dropped.

The Suns (10th) also dropped two spots, but you could see them back up just as quick. They rank 1st on the UCT and they 1st on the TIT, so much so that they have been one goal worse off per game than the next ranked team the Eagles when calculating total injuries.

Rankings Round 12:

1 Fremantle (+1)
2 Hawthorn (-1)
3 Geelong (-)
4 Sydney (-)
5 Richmond (-)
6 Collingwood (+1)
7 Essendon (+2)
8 Adelaide (-2)
9 Carlton (+2)
10 Gold Coast (-2)
11 West Coast (-1)
12 Kangaroos (-)
13 Bulldogs (-)
14 Brisbane (-)
15 St Kilda (-)
16 Port Adelaide (-)
17 GWS (-)
18 Melbourne (-)

Less than three dollars

The last five weeks in betting have been the worst in rankings history. Only one of those weeks has made profit, with betting line tips only coming up 39% of the time. So the profits from round 9 are gone and the PR are down to $2.76 and at 78% loss for the year. Last week was the worst ever tipping in terms of the ratio with only one tip coming up out of five. Of course the PR can be back in the black in a few weeks time.

Also putting $1 on the Dockers for the premiership with Bet365 who are still offering $10. Most bookies will give you only $9 now. They were $17 just a few weeks ago.

Round 13 looks like a stinker, maybe the worst of the year but unenthusiastically still doing predicted best matches.


Predicted Best Matches

Match of the round

St Kilda (15th ) vs Melbourne (18th)

The rankings predict this to be the closest game, Saints by five goals. It may seem surprising but the Saints have won one game in their last eight matches, which is no better than the Dees. If Melbourne don’t win this week they are likely to finish the season with only one win. I believe this has only happened eight times, with the Dees already having done it twice, 1951 and 1981. The last team to finish with one win was Fitzroy in 1996, and that was their last year before they merged with the Brisbane Bears.


Hawthorn (2nd) vs West Coast (11th)

It appears the rankings weekly predictions might be off a fair bit, maybe the reason why the tips are not coming up. Hawthorn is expected to win by 125 points. If the Hawks don’t win they are likely to drop down to fifth. It does look like to be the best match of the round, but the rankings say the opposite. We’ll see.


Interesting encounters

Fremantle (1st) vs Kangaroos (12th)

It’s always an interesting game when Brad Scott is in the box. It’s also interesting how Fremantle will handle the tag of the number one ranked team in the AFL. The rankings are predicting a thrashing even if this probably presents the last chance for the Roos trying to go back-to-back finals this year.

Bulldogs (13th) vs Tigers (5th)

Don’t worry Tigers fans, no more danger games for you guys, maybe once every blue moon but that’s about it. They will thrash the Dogs, which is unfortunate for them as they've had a very tough fixture so far. It’s all about 2015 and beyond.

Brisbane (14th) vs Geelong (3rd)

Geelong struggled against GWS last week, and Chris Scott said he would rather be playing well than winning, I agree. Expected margin is 45 points but if they continually play in patches they will eventually lose games. They rank 13th on the WCT and seldom do they close out a game before three quarter time.

Last week's rankings.

 

[timtamWB]

Hawks not on top?? Roby this is sacrilege!