2013 AFL Power Rankings

[Richo83]

Roby, thoughts on sportsbet's -35.5 line for Richmond @ $1.92?

 

[Roby]

Roby, thoughts on sportsbet's -35.5 line for Richmond @ $1.92?

Not a bad bet, almost taken but the rankings predicted 45 points to the Tigers and only 9.5 points difference, needs to be 10.

 

[Richo83]

Not a bad bet, almost taken but the rankings predicted 45 points to the Tigers and only 9.5 points difference, needs to be 10.

So your model expects a 45 point win to Richmond?

 

[Roby]

So your model expects a 45 point win to Richmond?

Yes.

 

[floki]

I'm still living in the 70's

good times

 

[Syd]

good times

DY-NO-MITE even.

 

[whiteoak]

DY-NO-MITE even.

Reminiscing about Michigan carparks and nefarious paid for services?

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

A quick question for you Roby - given the last 2-3 seasons has seen teams very much focusing on the bigger picture, resting players week to week, and (more importantly for this question) in game, moving their premium players to the flanks/pockets to allow others exposure in the prime positions....is this taken into account in your rankings?

For example, at Hawthorn Mitchell has played most of the year at HB, with 5 minutes a quarter on ball. Yet when we have been put under pressure (Blues game), Mitchell has played his usual 70 minutes onball. Clearly this is still his primary (finals) role - but instead we have given a string of other players exposure.

I understand your ranking points is all based on predicting the most likely premiership.

Does your ranking look at who plays where on the field (and for how long), or only the team lists as named?

Is Hawthorn underperforming by your rankings as key players are playing out of position? Sub-optimal as an individual game, but potentially better for the season as a whole.

Given a key part of winning the premiership is a healthy, deep list - shouldn't the "over-exposure" of younger players increase the ratings, rather than (through lesser scoreboard results) reduce it?

 

[floki]

Reminiscing about Michigan carparks and nefarious paid for services?

dirty deeds done dirt cheap

 

[Matt Stevic]

Pfft St Kilda never topped the list when Lyon was there.
He should humbly accept footy's greatest honour and be thankful.

Sydney came 2nd in last years ranking, what I wouldn't give to trade the 2012 AFL Premiership Cup for 1st place in Roby's Power Rankings.

Mate Hawthorn winning the 2012 Power Rankings Premiership was the greatest moment of my life. I'm shattered that it looks like we're not going to back it up, better let the boys tank the next few to get ourselves back up there

 

[Syd]

Reminiscing about Michigan carparks and nefarious paid for services?

What happens in unlit suburban Detroit car parks, stays in unlit suburban Detroit car parks

dirty deeds done dirt cheap

$30 if I recall correctly.
There was a lot of alcohol involved

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Roby's bets don't look too bad at all this week. Only one that may cause trouble would be an Eagles team desperate to save their season, but the smart money is on the Hawks.

 

[barmy44]

Great Moments in Mathematics History​

​

• Circa 450 BC - Zenogave a number of problems which were based on the infinite. For example he argued that motion is impossible: 'If a body moves from A to B then before it reaches B it passes through the mid-point, say B1 of AB. Now to move to B1 it must first reach the mid-point B2 of AB1 . Continue this argument to see that A must move through an infinite number of distances and so cannot move.'
• Circa 225BC - Archimedes made one of the most significant of the Greek contributions. His first important advance was to show that the area of a segment of a parabola is 4/3 the area of a triangle with the same base and vertex and 2/3 of the area of the circumscribed parallelogram.
• 14th century - the 'merton mean speed theorem' - that a uniformly accelerated body travels the same distance as a body with uniform speed whose speed is half the final velocity of the accelerated body.
• By 1675 - Leibniz had settled on the notation (∫ y dy = y2/2) written exactly as it would be today. His results on the integral calculus were published in 1684 and 1686 under the name 'calculus summatorius'.
• In the 17th century - European mathematicians Isaac Barrow, René Descartes, Pierre de Fermat, Blaise Pascal, John Wallis and others discussed the idea of a derivative. In particular, in Methodus ad disquirendam maximam et minima and in De tangentibus linearum curvarum, Fermat developed an adequality method for determining maxima, minima, and tangents to various curves that was equivalent to differentiation. Isaac Newton would later write that his own early ideas about calculus came directly from 'Fermat's way of drawing tangents.'
• 2013 - roby uses his unparallelled genius in the field of calculus to formulate a power ranking, enabling him to turn a massive 'staked so far amount' of about $13 into $2.76 at a 78% loss for the year. the long sought after alchemy of turning lead into gold has been cracked. a peer noted of this formula: 'it is effectively a "licence to print money"'.

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

I think you spelled "burn" wrong.

 

[Holy Rioli]

Roby's bets don't look too bad at all this week. Only one that may cause trouble would be an Eagles team desperate to save their season, but the smart money is on the Hawks.

Hawks were meant to win by 125 but only won by 20, but luckily the umpiring was that bad that it should have been about a 90 point win anyway!

 

[SuperSub17]

Looking forward to Hawthorn dropping out of the top four after failing to clear the line by 80 points. Has there been a bigger difference between the expected and actual margin all year?

 

[Holy Rioli]

Looking forward to Hawthorn dropping out of the top four after failing to clear the line by 80 points. Has there been a bigger difference between the expected and actual margin all year?

did you watch the game? The umpiring cost Hawthorn 10 goals we'll be sweet!

 

[Substance]

Hawthorn were quite below par tonight. Surely they will return to #1 in the robyrankings?

 

[SuperSub17]

did you watch the game? The umpiring cost Hawthorn 10 goals we'll be sweet!

Umpiring was terrible both ways I thought...

But then again Roby is a Hawthorn supporter. So you are right.

 

[Spectore]

Hawks were meant to win by 125 but only won by 20, but luckily the umpiring was that bad that it should have been about a 90 point win anyway!

I don't think the umpiring was quite worth 110 points.

 

[Sometimes]

Galileo was wrong. The universe revolves around the power rankings.

 

[TerryWallet]

I have only read p48 and 49 of this thread but i get the feeling that both this thread and Roby are genius.

 

[floki]

Umpiring was terrible both ways I thought...

But then again Roby is a Hawthorn supporter. So you are right.

Your cynicism is unjustifiable, young Roby is true to his methods and Freo have ascended to the top of the rankings and after they dispatch North it'll be daylight second, it would take an act of Goldspink proportions to get the hawks back within spitting distance.

Roby have you considered an indices to reflect the "human factor" ie dickhead acts like Embley's and their effects on match outcomes as his match day output dropped significantly after the act.

 

[DHRD]

Four discrepancies found this round and should be an improved performance over last week which was the worst in rankings history. With the dwindled fund it means adding some from the vault.

Hawthorn v West Coast – Handicap (-30.5) – $2 @ $1.91 Betfair

Fremantlev North Melbourne –Handicap (-21.5) – $2 @ $1.92 Luxbet

Port Adelaide v Sydney –Handicap (-35.5) – $1 @ $1.885 Pinnacle

St Kilda v Melbourne –Handicap (+40.5) – $1 @ $1.91 Sportsbet

All favourites expected to come up for the second consecutive week, although Geelong's match against the Lions is now seen as a danger game. Hawks are only now expected to win by 100 points on Friday night.

Hawks
Swans
Saints
Tigers
Freo
Cats

Tips: 74/102

I've worked out Roby's winning formula. Each week just bet the complete opposite of what he suggests.

 

[GuzzLG]

0/2

Bankrupt

LOL