2013 Draft - Overrated and Underrated

[DivideandMultiply]

Dom Sheed. How could he POSSIBLY last past pick 10? Definitely underrated.

Smooth mover, brilliant decision maker and can play both midfield roles (inside and outside).

I have said it plenty of times, people fall in love with what a player could be, more often than what a player is.

They see height, athleticism, or the player executes nicely and extrapolate. They then rate players based on their own imagined trajectory, or possibility of what the guy could become.

That's often why less trendy options like Sheed get talked down and are described as not having standout attributes, or being vanilla, despite displaying any number of characteristics you want, including genuine demonstrated footballing ability.

 

[Colin D'Cops]

Yeah, Bontempelli has fallen victim to that mindset on this forum.

KK fair enough, can see him getting picked up well inside top 10, can't see it with Bontempelli. Skills appear average first and foremost, which immediately puts him behind Scharenberg and KK IMO.

 

[Richo83]

I have said it plenty of times, people fall in love with what a player could be, more often than what a player is.

They see height, athleticism, or the player executes nicely and extrapolate. They then rate players based on their own imagined trajectory, or possibility of what the guy could become.

That's often why less trendy options like Sheed get talked down and are described as not having standout attributes, or being vanilla, despite displaying any number of characteristics you want, including genuine demonstrated footballing ability.

People say Sheed has no standout attributes, just does everything generally well, but that's what most major midfielders do anyway. It's almost as if they want the player to hide a bit so they can fantasize about what they might become, Sheed's form is there to see, so everyone talks him down.

 

[Richo83]

Yeah, Bontempelli has fallen victim to that mindset on this forum.

KK fair enough, can see him getting picked up well inside top 10, can't see it with Bontempelli. Skills appear average first and foremost, which immediately puts him behind Scharenberg and KK IMO.

Yeah, Bontempelli is being talked up because he's one of the youngest draftees, is 192cm and developed late. And that's fine, but he's a bit of a gamble. Almost purely outside. Knightmare tells me he's got good genes of being a cousin to Dal Santo, but I'm not sure genes are an iron clad guarantee of being good. Boomer Harvey's brother was a dud for instance.

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[DivideandMultiply]

People say Sheed has no standout attributes, just does everything generally well, but that's what most major midfielders do anyway. It's almost as if they want the player to hide a bit so they can fantasize about what they might become, Sheed's form is there to see, so everyone talks him down.

Nicely put.

Navigates traffic well, solid stoppage work as a primary ball winner but better as the first receiver, great workrate and solid fitness base, very good decision making especially running off the flanks in space, equal utility inside/out and likes to kick the odd goal. Just screams driven player with a great footy brain. Can't see the knocks on him, apart from people talking down a known quantity.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Yeah, Bontempelli is being talked up because he's one of the youngest draftees, is 192cm and developed late. And that's fine, but he's a bit of a gamble. Almost purely outside. Knightmare tells me he's got good genes of being a cousin to Dal Santo, but I'm not sure genes are an iron clad guarantee of being good. Boomer Harvey's brother was a dud for instance.

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Hahahaha I love the way "genes" has been incorporated into the football lexicon and misused.

 

[Richo83]

Hahahaha I love the way "genes" has been incorporated into the football lexicon and misused.

Yeah Bontempelli's genes have been used as some sort of positive, I don't know that much about biology, or Bontempelli's family history but I don't think it's enough to say "hey, Bontempelli has talented relatives, that must count right?" Like Scott Pendlebury is elite, but what about his brother Ryan? The other problem is the talk of youth, well, Sheed was as good, in many ways better than Bontempelli at 17 years of age anyway. I think the age of draftees is kinda meaningless, we often compare players only in their last year, ignoring the fact that often the guys who have "hit their peak early" are coasting because they know they're good and lack challenges until they get into the system, and yet are often better at the age of say 17 than these late bloomers and 17 year olds. It's nice when a player is a gun and underaged, but Cotchin wasn't a great prospect because he was younger, he was a great prospect because, well... he was a great prospect.

The other thing about Bontempelli is that, if this draft is really as shallow as they claim, then you'd probably want a safe bet in the first round, especially if there's nothing left in the second and later rounds. Bontempelli is fine for a club like the Gold Coast or GWS who have a stack of draft picks, or Collingwood who have two first round picks, but I'd worry if Richmond took Bontempelli, just because I'd be worried that if he failed, then it's likely that Richmond would get nothing from the 2013 draft, and given Richmond still need a lot of pieces, that's not good.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Yeah Bontempelli's genes have been used as some sort of positive, I don't know that much about biology, or Bontempelli's family history but I don't think it's enough to say "hey, Bontempelli has talented relatives, that must count right?" Like Scott Pendlebury is elite, but what about his brother Ryan? The other problem is the talk of youth, well, Sheed was as good, in many ways better than Bontempelli at 17 years of age anyway.

The other thing about Bontempelli is that, if this draft is really as shallow as they claim, then you'd probably want a safe bet in the first round, especially if there's nothing left in the second and later rounds. Bontempelli is fine for a club like the Gold Coast or GWS who have a stack of draft picks, or Collingwood who have two first round picks, but I'd worry if Richmond took Bontempelli, just because I'd be worried that if he failed, then it's likely that Richmond would get nothing from the 2013 draft, and given Richmond still need a lot of pieces, that's not good.

Bontempelli is a higher risk than Sheed, no doubt.

 

[DivideandMultiply]

Yeah Bontempelli's genes have been used as some sort of positive, I don't know that much about biology, or Bontempelli's family history but I don't think it's enough to say "hey, Bontempelli has talented relatives, that must count right?"

Don't worry, you are on the right track. We still don't know what allelic variations (if any) are responsible for the vast majority of athletic attributes, how various phenotypic traits may interact, let alone their mode of heritability. The safe assumption is that nurture, moreso than nature dominates.

So yeah, people being vaguely or even directly related is just one of those things, the popular fallacy that "bloodlines" or a name matters.

 

[eaglespremiers]

The safe assumption is that nurture, moreso than nature dominates.

The amount that the TAC Cup charges (as well as private schools) I think wealth has a thing or two to say about a kid's chances of being drafted.
But maybe I'm just a cynic.

 

[Lockyer24]

I have said it plenty of times, people fall in love with what a player could be, more often than what a player is.

They see height, athleticism, or the player executes nicely and extrapolate. They then rate players based on their own imagined trajectory, or possibility of what the guy could become.

That's often why less trendy options like Sheed get talked down and are described as not having standout attributes, or being vanilla, despite displaying any number of characteristics you want, including genuine demonstrated footballing ability.

Conversely you can say clubs draft for what players will be when they are 25 though and not 18.

E.G Daniel Rich type or Nat Fyfe

 

[Captain Diggz]

Underrated - Jake Kolodjashnij

Fan of JK - He will definitely go between 20 - 40 Inside Football paper suggests Gold Coast may pick him up at 27 if they get Kade. But they may have to beat Port Adelaide and Brisbane who I have heard are interested too and pick him at 20 instead

 

[Cotchinsastar]

Luke Dunstan seems underrated to me. I know he has been injured recently, but he seems like a ready made good quality player. Tough, good skills, takes the game on and looks like he wants to learn. Plays similar to Sam Mitchell but taller, I actually want Richmond to take him with pick 12.

 

[TerryWallet]

Luke Dunstan seems underrated to me. I know he has been injured recently, but he seems like a ready made good quality player. Tough, good skills, takes the game on and looks like he wants to learn. Plays similar to Sam Mitchell but taller, I actually want Richmond to take him with pick 12.

I agree about Luke Dunstan.

I can't possibly see how he could get past StKilda at 18/19.

I would be quite happy if my team picks him up at #13 and interesting to see a Tiger keen at #12 too.

Dunstan offers a lot. Has game and has leadership qualities.

The knock seems to be his speed. Well, he mightn't be athletically quick but he looks footy quick enough to my eye. He or the ball exits the area nicely and quickly when he gets it.

 

[boncer34]

So yeah, people being vaguely or even directly related is just one of those things, the popular fallacy that "bloodlines" or a name matters.

Pretty much this. Father son selections that turned into stars didn't do so because their old man was good.

They did it because they worked hard and because they grew up in an environment where they had multiple people helping them develop their skills at a high standard.

 

[Richo83]

Pretty much this. Father son selections that turned into stars didn't do so because their old man was good.

They did it because they worked hard and because they grew up in an environment where they had multiple people helping them develop their skills at a high standard.

Yeah, having a parent who knows what it takes to make it professionally is a massive help. And even then, there are some busts. Just look at the Cloke sons, one of them is good, the other two were duds.

 

[Footyking123]

Overrated Freeman, Billings.
Freeman just isn't as good as everyone talks him up to be doesn't get a lot of the ball and doesn't have that good of a kick. Don't see him being able to break away so easily in the AFL.
Billings is a small forward not a midfielder. Everyone talks about how he is going to be an elite midfielder at the AFL but at junior level he is yet to show it so I don't understand how people think it is automatic that he will transition into the midfield.

Underrated: Heavyside. Gets a lot of the ball and is very good 1v1 in contests. Had two games over 40 touches and can kick goals. Good on the outside and inside everything you want in a mid. Fast, good endurance, good mark for his size and not a bad kick.
Matt Crouch: Gets more of the ball than anyone else in the draft and does it with a very average fitness base. Imagining him with a big tank is a scary prospect. Expect him to be one of the top 5 players to come out of this draft.

 

[Zach Package]

good to see people climbing on the Heavyside bandwagon, he's little, but a hardworker and a ballwinner.​

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I think Billings has the makings of an excellent medium forward, maybe a more explosive Monfries with a bigger bag of tricks. But i'm not sold on him as a midfielder, and that begs the question, do you take a small-medium forward in the top 5-6?​

 

[aussierulesrules]

I believe there are plenty who have seen Billings play very good footy in the midfield, but he wouldn't have played much there last year in the TAC Cup, or at the champs, because he was underage and could be just as effective and damaging in the forward line, I would imagine. (Who would he have knocked out of Vic Metro's midfield last year, for instance, as an "underager", especially when he could kick goals up forward?) And then this year he's been carrying a knee injury all year, so he probably didn't have the fitness to play much in the midfield and again, being so damaging in the forward line, there was probably little need for him too.

Just because there are some on here who haven't seen him play outstanding footy in the midfield doesn't mean he is "unproven in the midfield", I wouldn't have thought.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Overrated Ben Stiller - his acting is rubbish

Do you hear someone disagreeing?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Just because there are some on here who haven't seen him play outstanding footy in the midfield doesn't mean he is "unproven in the midfield", I wouldn't have thought.

No, simply means there are better midfield options available.

 

[WAFLfan1969]

Do you hear someone disagreeing?

Not a single person has shot me down yet

 

[Footyking123]

Not a single person has shot me down yet

I really liked Zoolander

 

[eaglespremiers]

I really liked Zoolander

Were you as amazed as I was when Ben was snubbed for an Oscar nomination for his performance?

 

[eaglespremiers]

Perhaps even more surprising was the lack of appreciation for Will Ferrell's role.
It was as if a blind artist had thought his character into being.