Position 2014 SC Defenders

[karaoke]

I don't entirely agree with this considering a player who selected value picks (and gotten them right) and the correct rookies will be able to trade McVeigh in at a depreciated price. A selected player in your team is relevant against every other player who happened to pick that player at a reduced price (or indeed a player that paid overs compared to you). If you paid for a 106 avg player and only get 95 ppg for him for the rest of the season, a player that has paid a 95ppg price for 95 ppg from the moment he has bought him until the end of the season has won out. Whilst it is impossible to not lose value on premiums (they all depreciate even if they maintain their starting price value), they don't equally lose value. McVeigh given his history, is prone to having low scoring games which may hit his price negatively compared to a more consistent performer with a lower std dev.

?

IIRC-

Steve Johnson started 2013 @ 515k, ended at 552k

Todd Goldstein started 2013 @ 498k, ended at 549k

Will Minson started 2013 @ 505k, ended at 544k

There will be those whose ave increases at a rate that more than offsets the decrease in the 'magical number',

So not impossible, but agree 'majority' do end up on a lower price comapred to their starting price,

 

[TheOz]

?

IIRC-

Steve Johnson started 2013 @ 515k, ended at 552k

Todd Goldstein started 2013 @ 498k, ended at 549k

Will Minson started 2013 @ 505k, ended at 544k

There will be those whose ave increases at a rate that more than offsets the decrease in the 'magical number',

So not impossible, but agree 'majority' do end up on a lower price comapred to their starting price,

And I have no doubt that players will increase their averages this year and gain in value above what they started with again and this is in fact the crux of my argument here, that finding these "value" players are key, players who are cheaper than what they should be (in terms of Goldstein for example, a former top end premium who had a down 2012 due to North's ruck situation whose circumstances changed due to Hamish McIntosh's departure).

The set and forget premiums like Pendlebury or Ablett who provide C/VC options weekly could be viewed as a class of their own, and it is impossible to not start with these players, but with someone like McVeigh who has never averaged above 100 until late in his career, it is worth investigating as to why he managed to average 106 last season and what might change this year (if anything) and to investigate cheaper options.

Impossible was probably the wrong word to use.

 

[Krujan]

Absolutely, I am not disputing this contention at all. All we can do is work with the data we have of past performances and evaluate situational changes that may or may not occur currently to deduce if indeed, a player like McVeigh has a good chance of replicating his scoring of last season, or whether a player such as a Pearce Hanley, Kade Simpson or even a much cheaper option such as a Jack Grimes, David Swallow, Sam Fisher, Sam Gilbert, Matthew Broadbent etc etc. can provide the same scoring output for a diminished outlay.

There are many reasons as to why a $500k player might be a $500k player and not a $600k player or $400k player and that goes back to both analysing past data and assessing any situational changes that may turn that player to a $550k player. For example, and not specific to defenders here but someone like a Marc Murphy is only a $500k player. Any reasonable sueprcoach player knows that Marc Murphy has averaged well above a $500k price before. It is therefore prudent to understand the causes of his price drop and determine what situation has changed from last season to now. It is also worthwhile to assess why a $572k player who is turning 30 this season has never averaged above $530k until the past season and the circumstances behind this scoring change. I think ubeaut summed McVeigh's circumstances last year well and how these may change.

Are you serious? I'll give you Hanley who theoratically could average 106 but most of those other players have next to no chance of averaging 100 let alone 106.

Murphy is a terrible example to use to make your point since he has averaged 111+ 4 times in his career already.

Out of ALL the 2014 Def listed players, only Mitchell, Bartel, Walker, McVeigh, H Shaw, Hodge & Scotland have averaged 106 or better and Hodge & Scotland are both past it. 106 is just about mid premo, so I would take that in a heartbeat from a def listed player. Speculating which players Def players could average 106+ who have never done so previously is just that, specualtion. Where as the players I have listed have done it before, even if only once. But most recent form is the best formline for me to make my selection decisions from.

Others like yourself prefer to pick speculative un-proven super premo Defs in initial teams, which is also fine, but not the way I go about playing the game.

 

[TheOz]

Are you serious? I'll give you Hanley who theoratically could average 106 but most of those other players have next to no chance of averaging 100 let alone 106.

Murphy is a terrible example to use to make your point since he has averaged 111+ 4 times in his career already.

Out of ALL the 2014 Def listed players, only Mitchell, Bartel, Walker, McVeigh, H Shaw, Hodge & Scotland have averaged 106 or better and Hodge & Scotland are both past it. 106 is just about mid premo, so I would take that in a heartbeat from a def listed player. Speculating which players Def players could average 106+ who have never done so previously is just that, specualtion. Where as the players I have listed have done it before, even if only once. But most recent form is the best formline for me to make my selection decisions from.

Others like yourself prefer to pick speculative un-proven super premo Defs in initial teams, which is also fine, but not the way I go about playing the game.

You don't need them to average 106, you need them to average the same as what a $572k player will average this season and you've come out on top.

Recent formline is not established in a vacuum, there needs to be a reason why a player who is turning 30 this year has only averaged 100+ once in his entire career.

 

[Krujan]

You don't need them to average 106, you need them to average the same as what a $572k player will average this season and you've come out on top.

Recent formline is not established in a vacuum, there needs to be a reason why a player who is turning 30 this year has only averaged 100+ once in his entire career.

Firstly he's only 28 turning 29 in April. Secondly not every player goes downhill at 30 anyway.

Why is that 100 point mark is such a barrier for you when he's averaged 99, 99, 99, 98 before. Surely that is as close to a consistant 100 average as you're going to get?

In fact he's averaged 98.31 from the last 6 seasons hardly missing a game in the process. Have you even stopped to think that he may in fact be peaking in his career at 29-30? Not all players peak at 24-28 some age like a fine wine. Plus he is his clubs captain, which makes a big difference as he leads from the front and by example.

Also the first part of your post makes no sense if the 572k player averages 106 again this year and your 500k player stagnated at 95

 

[5 GB USB]

Out of ALL the 2014 Def listed players, only Mitchell, Bartel, Walker, McVeigh, H Shaw, Hodge & Scotland have averaged 106 or better and Hodge & Scotland are both past it. 106 is just about mid premo, so I would take that in a heartbeat from a def listed player. Speculating which players Def players could average 106+ who have never done so previously is just that, specualtion. Where as the players I have listed have done it before, even if only once. But most recent form is the best formline for me to make my selection decisions from.
.

Why is Hodge Past it?

 

[TheOz]

Firstly he's only 28 turning 29 in April. Secondly not every player goes downhill at 30 anyway.

Why is that 100 point mark is such a barrier for you when he's averaged 99, 99, 99, 98 before. Surely that is as close to a consistant 100 average as you're going to get?

In fact he's averaged 98.31 from the last 6 seasons hardly missing a game in the process. Have you even stopped to think that he may in fact be peaking in his career at 29-30? Not all players peak at 24-28 some age like a fine wine. Plus he is his clubs captain, which makes a big difference as he leads from the front and by example.

Also the first part of your post makes no sense if the 572k player averages 106 again this year and your 500k player stagnated at 95

I am more inclined to give credence to the position he was played in last season due to the circumstances of his team relative to the role he has played prior to his sudden jump in scoring. I can also see how due to change circumstances (the addition and/or regaining of certain players), his average will regress back to his previous mean. I don't want a player whose value is 106ppg to be scoring 8 to 10 points less than that per game.

 

[Krujan]

Why is Hodge Past it?

Past his best IMHO. Reckon this will be his last year. Some guys were just not designed to play past 30/31. Injuries have cruelled him over the years and will ultimately cut his career slightly short. Can't see him playing much if any midfield time this year and has way too many quiet games when he plays defensive roles.

 

[Super Hans]

Why is Hodge Past it?

Hodge will average at least 100 this year IMO, the bloke is a jet.

 

[5 GB USB]

Past his best IMHO. Reckon this will be his last year. Some guys were just not designed to play past 30/31. Injuries have cruelled him over the years and will ultimately cut his career slightly short. Can't see him playing much if any midfield time this year and has way too many quiet games when he plays defensive roles.

i disagree to a degree (see what i did there)
Hodge has had a full preseason this year, the last time he did that he got close to winning the Brownlow. I don't think he has slowed down like people suggest, his a beast and will continue to be in season 2014.

 

[Krujan]

I am more inclined to give credence to the position he was played in last season due to the circumstances of his team relative to the role he has played prior to his sudden jump in scoring. I can also see how due to change circumstances (the addition and/or regaining of certain players), his average will regress back to his previous mean. I don't want a player whose value is 106ppg to be scoring 8 to 10 points less than that per game.

Well don't pick him then. Just back your own insincts and choose a speculative/break out contender who you think will be a top 3 Def instead and save money in the process. No need to try and justify your decision by trying to talk everyone else into agreeing with your negative prognosis for his upcoming season. I'll back him to back up and score similar to what he did last year.

 

[Krujan]

i disagree to a degree (see what i did there)
Hodge has had a full preseason this year, the last time he did that he got close to winning the Brownlow. I don't think he has slowed down like people suggest, his a beast and will continue to be in season 2014.

It's just my opinion. Good luck to him and anyone who picks him, was/is a gun when at his best.

 

[LSRU]

I think the jump in Mcveighs scoring last year, was not so much due to the role change but the emergence of Kennedy, Hannebery and continued improvement of Jack. The years Mcveigh averaged high 90's he was always the copping the number one tag. As of last year this isnt the case, hence the improvement.

 

[TheOz]

Well don't pick him then. Just back your own insincts and choose a speculative/break out contender who you think will be a top 3 Def instead and save money in the process. No need to try and justify your decision by trying to talk everyone else into agreeing with your negative prognosis for his upcoming season. I'll back him to back up and score similar to what he did last year.

I'm not trying to talk anyone into anything, just putting it out there that perhaps last season was an outlier.

 

[Jiska]

Why is that 100 point mark is such a barrier for you when he's averaged 99, 99, 99, 98 before. Surely that is as close to a consistant 100 average as you're going to get?

'cause he's crap. Can't average 100 points.

It's like giving Richo a kick at goal from the goal square.. FAIL..

 

[karaoke]

'cause he's crap. Can't average 100 points.

It's like giving Richo a kick at goal from the goal square.. FAIL..

Like Warney's 99 v NZ,

close, but no cigar,

 

[Krujan]

I'm not trying to talk anyone into anything, just putting it out there that perhaps last season was an outlier.

It was only a 5% increase on his usual average so not that much of a jump.

 

[thetradesman]

Matt Suckling would be the value pick in defence for mine.

 

[Jiska]

Matt Suckling would be the value pick in defence for mine.

Really? What do you estimate his average to be by years end and what role does he play now with Birchall?

 

[karaoke]

Really? What do you estimate his average to be by years end and what role does he play now with Birchall?

IMO-

Suckling - 85

Birchall - 100

 

[thetradesman]

Really? What do you estimate his average to be by years end and what role does he play now with Birchall?

He plays the same role he did when he was playing with BIrchall.

Average of 90 - 100 if fit

 

[thetradesman]

Suckling has more potential than BIrchall IMO, picking up both ATM.

 

[Jiska]

He plays the same role he did when he was playing with BIrchall.

Average of 90 - 100 if fit

But Birchall played that role in a Premiership year when Suckling was injured. What happens to Birchall now? Do they leave Birchall in that role and find a different role for Suckling given their success? These are the million dollar questions, really need to see what happens in the pre-season - not that that's much of a guide these days.

 

[thetradesman]

But Birchall played that role in a Premiership year when Suckling was injured. What happens to Birchall now? Do they leave Birchall in that role and find a different role for Suckling given their success? These are the million dollar questions, really need to see what happens in the pre-season - not that that's much of a guide these days.

When both were fit they both played exactly the same role and didn't take points off each other.

 

[SureBuddy]

With the retirement of Guerra, Suckling will be the main avenue out of defence again. He will average 85-90.