2015 Delistings

[Mike Smyth]

Retire: Pods, Siggins, Reilly

Delist: Either this year or the next you would think the following would be delisted or traded: Shaw, McKay, Martin, Wright, Otten, Lowden and Kerridge, Lyon or Grigg.

 

[Pugsley]

We're at a point where the list changes are starting to look a bit more obvious.

This isn't all my personal preference by any means, but to me it's looking like the following will happen:

Out:
Reilly (retired)
Podsiadly (retired)
Siggins (delisted)
Martin (delisted)
Kerridge (traded)
Osborn (delisted - Cat B rookie list)
Dangerfield (free agency / trade)

I believe the above are all somewhere between 90 and 100% certainties. Others will argue that Martin might be offered another contract and / or that Kerridge may be retained. Good luck with either of those things taking place. I don't see it. Oh, and I guess there's still some people in the 'Danger is staying' camp too. I don't see it.


Other possibilities include:
Grigg (traded - if Campo has his way, this seems likely)
Ellis-Yolmen (traded - hopefully not FFS)
M Crouch (traded - should only be considered if we're receiving crazy overs in return)
Wright (delisted / traded)
Shaw (delisted / traded)
Otten (delisted / traded)
Ramsey (delisted - rookie list)
Wilson (delisted - rookie list)
Lyons (traded)
Van Berlo (retired)
Henderson (traded)


Important to remember also, are the number of players coming in, or onto, the list next year. Currently, we know the following:

In:
Hampton (trade)
O'Brien (rookie upgrade)
Kelly (rookie upgrade)
Keath (Cat B rookie list)
Greenwood (Cat B rookie list)

Other possibilities (some likely, some remote):
T Menzel (trade - clearly a prime target for us and I'm feeling that it will happen)
Aish (trade - some rumblings but it's nowhere near over the line yet)
Bennell (trade - unlikely but who knows)
Carlisle (trade - unlikely but don't count us out completely just yet)
Redden (trade - hard to tell if we're even interested)
Seedsman (trade - yuck)
M Talia (trade - please don't)
Yarran (trade - you wouldn't think so but stranger things have happened)
No doubt there's 1 or 2 others that the club are sniffing around that we don't know about yet.

Plus you'd think we'd use 3-4 live picks in the draft (3 seems likely to me). 3-4 is also the number of players I expect us to acquire via trade. Something like Hampton, Menzel plus 1-2 players that nobody currently knows about is what I expect.



Just doing some quick maths, my money is therefore on precisely 3 of Kerridge (seems almost a given), Grigg, Wright, Ellis-Yolmen, M Crouch, Lyons, Shaw, Otten, VB and Henderson LEAVING this offseason (via trade, delisting or retirement). Room simply must be made for draftees, rookie upgrades and probably 3 trade acquisitions. It's very interesting because no doubt an argument could be made for retaining every one of these players for one reason or another (I will never understand anyone arguing in favour of keeping Wright, but he played a ridiculous number of games this season so he clearly has some fans within the club)

Kerridge is the only one of those that I'd put money on to leave, but it will be very interesting to see who the other departures are, because there inevitably will be a couple.


So to summarise I'll put my balls on the line and say there'll be 8 changes to our SENIOR list this offseason (for rookie changes, see above). Something resembling:

Out:
Dangerfield
Kerridge
Grigg
Reilly
Podsiadly
Siggins
Martin
Wright (call me an optimist)

In:
Hampton
T Menzel
J Kelly
O'Brien
M Talia (*sigh)
3 x draftees (hoping for 2 picks in the top 20)


Hopefully we can outperform my predictions. Wait and see.

You'd be a busy man if you were our list manager

 

[Scorpus]

It would be good to see our best 22 with what each of them cost us opposed to other clubs.

Here's ours

Backs
Brown (Partial Davis + 10) - Talia (13) - Lever (14)
Half Backs
Smith (14) - Hartigan (Rookie 14) - Laird (Rookie 5)
Center
Henderson (Rookie 10) - Sloane (44) - Douglas (16)
Half Forward
Knight (46) - Walker (Scholarship) - Lynch (Maric)
Forward
Betts (Free Agent) - Jenkins (Partial Gunston Pick Downgrade) - Cameron (Rookie 7)
Ruck
Jacobs (34 + 67) - Dangerfield (10) - B. Crouch (Partial Davis + 10)
Bench
Thompson (12) - M. Crouch (Vince) - Jaensch (Rookie 46) - Mackay (48)

 

[Croweater23]

Why do people keep saying Lyon will be delisted? On a list of 44 (?) players, he has just been called into one of the biggest games for the club in recent times. Doesn't make sense.

 

[Scorpus]

Port Adelaide's. I'm not super familiar with their team but here's a good guess.

Backs
Hombsch (Partial 28) - Carlile (Partial Pickett) - Jonas (Rookie 16)
Half Backs
Pittard (Partial Burgoyne) - Trengove (22) - Broadbent (38)
Center
Polec (1st + 2nd Round Pick Downgrade) - Ebert (2nd Round Pick Downgrade) - Hartlett (4)
Half Forward
Gray (55) - Westhoff (71) - Wingard (6)
Forward
Monfries (48) - Schulz (Farmer + 71) - White (Free Agent)
Ruck
Ryder (17 + 37) - Boak (5) - Wines (7)
Bench
Lobbe (16) - Krakouer (Rookie 16) - Impey (21 from Polec Downgrade) - Neade (Partial 28)

 

[spenze]

We're at a point where the list changes are starting to look a bit more obvious.

Lots of writing

More writing

Brief rant

Summary

.

Think you may be right on Ramsey, may need to bite the bullet so we can free up rookie spaces, the more the better

 

[Matman23]

Here's ours

Backs
Brown (Partial Davis + 10) - Talia (13) - Lever (14)
Half Backs
Smith (14) - Hartigan (Rookie 14) - Laird (Rookie 5)
Center
Henderson (Rookie 10) - Sloane (44) - Douglas (16)
Half Forward
Knight (46) - Walker (Scholarship) - Lynch (Maric)
Forward
Betts (Free Agent) - Jenkins (Partial Gunston Pick Downgrade) - Cameron (Rookie 7)
Ruck
Jacobs (34 + 67) - Dangerfield (10) - B. Crouch (Partial Davis + 10)
Bench
Thompson (12) - M. Crouch (Vince) - Jaensch (Rookie 46) - Mackay (48)

Thanks, we have done really well from pick 40 to the rookie draft.

Considering Jenkins and Jacobs started their careers as rookies it makes you wonder why early draft picks are valued so high.

 

[Vader]

Why do people keep saying Lyon will be delisted? On a list of 44 (?) players, he has just been called into one of the biggest games for the club in recent times. Doesn't make sense.

Because the Grigg fanbois can't accept that Lyons is now preferred and that means their boy is on the outer and could be on his way outer the door.

 

[Vader]

We're at a point where the list changes are starting to look a bit more obvious.

This isn't all my personal preference by any means, but to me it's looking like the following will happen:

Out:
Reilly (retired)
Podsiadly (retired)
Siggins (delisted)
Martin (delisted)
Kerridge (traded)
Osborn (delisted - Cat B rookie list)
Dangerfield (free agency / trade)

I believe the above are all somewhere between 90 and 100% certainties. Others will argue that Martin might be offered another contract and / or that Kerridge may be retained. Good luck with either of those things taking place. I don't see it. Oh, and I guess there's still some people in the 'Danger is staying' camp too. I don't see it.

Fantastic post. The only bit I would query is rating Kerridge's departure at 90-100% certainty. It's a strong possibility, but I wouldn't rate it any higher than Grigg or CEY being traded.

BTW, I agree with you - Dangerfield is definitely gone. I just hope we match his RFA offer and get a decent trade for him.

 

[Pugsley]

Why do people keep saying Lyon will be delisted? On a list of 44 (?) players, he has just been called into one of the biggest games for the club in recent times. Doesn't make sense.

I'd delist him from the Triple M commentary.

 

[Croweater23]

I'd delist him from the Triple M commentary.

Some would have delisted him from the Australian bowling attack a while ago too. Hasn't he shown them?!

 

[Pugsley]

Some would have delisted him from the Australian bowling attack a while ago too. Hasn't he shown them?!

He's been known to do his best work in Red Square.

 

[1970crow]

I think we'll hang onto Wilson; he seemed to improve over the last few rounds and Ogilvie said we had taken him a year early.

Given our serious need for pace remain it would seem foolish to cut him after openly stating we'd gone a bit early just to get him on our list.

Another year of development with a full AFL pre-season under his belt will give us a far clearer indication on whether he'll make it.

I'm struggling to see Wright being delisted but who knows what will happen this off-season.

I think Wright will remain. We'll need him for injury cover.

 

[Paladin]

I think Wright will remain. We'll need him for injury cover.

Are you taking the piss?
CEY, Grigg, Kerridge, Lyons all are better options with greater upside. Matty was a good clubman and handy footballer but surplus to our needs from now on.

 

[1970crow]

Are you taking the piss?
CEY, Grigg, Kerridge, Lyons all are better options with greater upside. Matty was a good clubman and handy footballer but surplus to our needs from now on.

I don't see any of those players at the club next year. Not a single one.

 

[Paladin]

I don't see any of those players at the club next year. Not a single one.

WE will keep at least 2 of the 4.

 

[1970crow]

WE will keep at least 2 of the 4.

That would be a good result, I'm doubtful.

 

[Vader]

Are you taking the piss?
CEY, Grigg, Kerridge, Lyons all are better options with greater upside. Matty was a good clubman and handy footballer but surplus to our needs from now on.

Though I'm not convinced that CEY, Grigg or Kerridge are better than Wright. Nor do they have significant upside to suggest that this is likely to change. All virtually equivalent in my eyes - mediocre players, taking up positions on the list which could be filled with more talented players.

I think Lyons is slightly ahead of this group, but only slightly. I think it's highly likely that he'll be on our team list in 2016, due to him having a contract already in place (which makes it difficult to trade him if he doesn't want to leave).

WE will keep at least 2 of the 4.

This, on the other hand, I think is fairly likely to be the case.

I just don't see us turning bringing enough new faces in to need to cut more than 2 players from this group.

 

[Pugsley]

Though I'm not convinced that CEY, Grigg or Kerridge are better than Wright. Nor do they have significant upside to suggest that this is likely to change. All virtually equivalent in my eyes - mediocre players, taking up positions on the list which could be filled with more talented players.

I think Lyons is slightly ahead of this group, but only slightly. I think it's highly likely that he'll be on our team list in 2016, due to him having a contract already in place (which makes it difficult to trade him if he doesn't want to leave).

This, on the other hand, I think is fairly likely to be the case.

Perhaps do a PlayStation trade ?

 

[Vader]

Perhaps do a PlayStation trade ?

Lets do some maths...

Assumption #1: We bring in 3 players during trade week. The most likely candidates are Hampton, Aish and Menzel, but it really doesn't matter who - it's the number that matters.
Assumption #2: Dangerfield is traded to Geelong, for 2 first round draft selections.
Assumption #3: We use 3 "live" selections at the National Draft.
Assumption #4: JPod retires and Brodie Martin is delisted.
Assumption #5: Atkins and M Crouch re-sign.

Fact #1 - Reilly has already retired and we know Siggins won't be around in 2016.
Fact #2 - ROB and Kelly will be promoted to the senior list.

The maths is therefore as follows...
We need to create 8 list vacancies - 3 for newly traded players, 3 for draftees, 2 for promoted rookies.
We currently have 5 list vacancies - Reilly, JPod, Siggins, Martin, Dangerfield.

This means that we need to create 3 more vacancies on the team list. I would like to see Shaw delisted, but our shortage of KPDs probably means that we're stuck with him for another year. The most likely players to depart are (in no particular order): CEY, Grigg, Kerridge and Wright. If those assumptions turn out to be correct, then it's highly likely that 3 of the 4 will be gone in just over a month's time. It's possible that some of those assumptions will not turn out to be correct, in which case 2-3 of them might survive instead of just the 1.

 

[Pugsley]

Lets do some maths...

Assumption #1: We bring in 3 players during trade week. The most likely candidates are Hampton, Aish and Menzel, but it really doesn't matter who - it's the number that matters.
Assumption #2: Dangerfield is traded to Geelong, for 2 first round draft selections.
Assumption #3: We use 3 "live" selections at the National Draft.
Assumption #4: JPod retires and Brodie Martin is delisted.
Assumption #5: Atkins and M Crouch re-sign.

Fact #1 - Reilly has already retired and we know Siggins won't be around in 2016.
Fact #2 - ROB and Kelly will be promoted to the senior list.

The maths is therefore as follows...
We need to create 8 list vacancies - 3 for newly traded players, 3 for draftees, 2 for promoted rookies.
We currently have 5 list vacancies - Reilly, JPod, Siggins, Martin, Dangerfield.

This means that we need to create 3 more vacancies on the team list. I would like to see Shaw delisted, but our shortage of KPDs probably means that we're stuck with him for another year. The most likely players to depart are (in no particular order): CEY, Grigg, Kerridge and Wright. If those assumptions turn out to be correct, then it's highly likely that 3 of the 4 will be gone in just over a month's time. It's possible that some of those assumptions will not turn out to be correct, in which case 2-3 of them might survive instead of just the 1.

I'm not disagreeing with you. Just extracting the urine.

 

[Paladin]

Though I'm not convinced that CEY, Grigg or Kerridge are better than Wright. Nor do they have significant upside to suggest that this is likely to change. All virtually equivalent in my eyes - mediocre players, taking up positions on the list which could be filled with more talented players.

I think Lyons is slightly ahead of this group, but only slightly. I think it's highly likely that he'll be on our team list in 2016, due to him having a contract already in place (which makes it difficult to trade him if he doesn't want to leave).

This, on the other hand, I think is fairly likely to be the case.

I just don't see us turning bringing enough new faces in to need to cut more than 2 players from this group.

CEY is a clearance machine has height and athleticism his best footy this year > Wright a lot less AFL experience so of course he has more upside.
GRIGG has a beautiful left foot kick, nice side step younger and less experience than Wright of course has more upside.
KERRIDGE is an running machine, excellent kick, has kicked bags of 6 and 4 goals at AFL level, less experienced and younger than Wright of course more upside
LYONS is a much better size than Wright, similar pace better clearance player is currently better than Wright despite playing less games.

None of these guys are getting delisted before Wright. I was a big Matty Wright fan but he cant kick over 30 metres and his footy smarts and team play cant make up for his lack of pace and size.

Just ask yourself who other teams would be after to poach or trade for? Hint Wright would be 5th on the list - no weapons. Gold Coast are sniffing around CEY, Port are into Grigg, Carlton want Kerridge and Melbourne have been trying to get Lyons for 2 years. Facts are we couldn't give Wright away if we wanted too. Really hope he dosent read this because he is a ripping team player and has given his all for the club.

 

[Vader]

I'm not trying to build Wright up - he is very much a known quantity by now and I agree that he is never going to be anything more than a mediocre footballer at AFL level. I'm suggesting that you're over-rating the younger players, by only looking at their positives and neglecting to look at their negatives. For example, Lyons lacks endurance and can't run out a full AFL game (which is why he makes a fantastic sub); Grigg is slow as treacle; Kerridge has no weapons to his game other than his endurance. If these players were as good as you make them out to be then they'd be playing every single week in the AFL, not spending the majority of their seasons playing in the SANFL.

Wright is on par with these players and any one (or two, or three) of them could be kicked to the kerbside in a months time. The only thing which differentiates Wright from the others is his age, which is not in his favour.

 

[Paladin]

I'm not trying to build Wright up - he is very much a known quantity by now and I agree that he is never going to be anything more than a mediocre footballer at AFL level. I'm suggesting that you're over-rating the younger players, by only looking at their positives and neglecting to look at their negatives. For example, Lyons lacks endurance and can't run out a full AFL game (which is why he makes a fantastic sub); Grigg is slow as treacle; Kerridge has no weapons to his game other than his endurance. If these players were as good as you make them out to be then they'd be playing every single week in the AFL, not spending the majority of their seasons playing in the SANFL.

Wright is on par with these players and any one (or two, or three) of them could be kicked to the kerbside in a months time. The only thing which differentiates Wright from the others is his age, which is not in his favour.

You are not acknowledging the weapons the other guys have. If you watched CEY earlier this year and weren't excited about his potential you weren't watching hard enough. The fact he currently isn't playing doesn't mean he isn't good enough or wont be a very good afl player! Ditto Grigg, Kegs and Lyons. Cant believe you haven't grasped this yet. We have just 2 injuries and some very good players are missing out every week. Do you think every player playing seconds for the Hawks or Freo wont make it?

Martin, Wright and the ilk are in a different boat.

 

[Vader]

You are not acknowledging the weapons the other guys have. If you watched CEY earlier this year and weren't excited about his potential you weren't watching hard enough. The fact he currently isn't playing doesn't mean he isn't good enough or wont be a very good afl player! Ditto Grigg, Kegs and Lyons. Cant believe you haven't grasped this yet. We have just 2 injuries and some very good players are missing out every week. Do you think every player playing seconds for the Hawks or Freo wont make it?

Martin, Wright and the ilk are in a different boat.

I'm well aware that they all have some limited weapons. Unfortunately, the weapons they do have aren't enough for them to make it at the senior level, given the weaker aspects of their game, which lets them down.

I'm well aware how good our injury list is at present. I posted what I considered to be our best 22 (plus 3 emergencies) a couple of days ago in the Possible Trades thread. Lyons was the only member of this group in the best 25 players. It is likely that all of these players will be moving further down the pecking order as a result of trade week and having multiple first round draft picks (courtesy of trading Dangerfield).

Any midfield player who has been at the club for 4+ years and still isn't inside the best 25 players is not a player with a long AFL future ahead of them. They are clearly depth players at best, and delistment fodder at worst.