AFL 2017 - AFL Round 18

[LukeParkerno1]

How on earth are the Crows $1.50 compared to Geelong $2.70...the line to Geelong has to be close to the bet of the year!

Gold Coast and Collingwood are great bets too. WC are hopeless at the MCG.

This round is a lottery.

 

[langdon19]

Gold Coast and Collingwood are great bets too. WC are hopeless at the MCG.

It's at Etihad

 

[LukeParkerno1]

It's at Etihad

Arrh my mistake there. Assumed it was at the MCG.

 

[Boxhead182]

To start the weekend:
Essendon/Port double $300 at $2.10

 

[JuddyBuddy]

How on earth are the Crows $1.50 compared to Geelong $2.70...the line to Geelong has to be close to the bet of the year!

I'd agree if Dangerfield wasn't in doubt.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I'd agree if Dangerfield wasn't in doubt.

Even without Dangerfield those odds are ridiculous. I'd take the 4 goal start or whatever they are giving.

 

[Djoker]

For those small time punters out there playing the promos (like me) ladbrokes betblast (crows $2) and crownbet points pileup can be used together for a free shot at a bonus bet or small profit
Example:
$20 @ 2.7 for cats at crown and $34 @ 2 for crows at lads
Cats win you get a bonus bet or crows win you get $14
I'll combine crown, lads and sportsbet with the hope that one side (cats) get up early for the payout then the other (crows) comeback for a decent win but could still switch it around depending on teams

Also liking Tiges and Bris for value this week, think Ess (-24.5) could also blow out kangas seeing as they're resting Ziebell and possibly debuting more kids

 

[Jimmy69r]

Does it need to be said that if you are throwing hail mary multis to chase your losses you need to take a break?

This kind of behavior is why all of the books can offer such insanely good deals like the 24 point payout, yet still be a money printing factory. If we all bet sensibly, these deals wouldn't exist because the bookies would get cleaned out too often.

Don't be the guy who loses far more than he can afford just so the patient punters can clean up.

Do you really believe that the bookies are losing money with their 24pt payout offer??

 

[Russian Demon]

Do you really believe that the bookies are losing money with their 24pt payout offer??

Thats not what I said.

However, with the 24 point payout there is one of two options:

1) They are making less money than they would otherwise

2) The promo is bringing in so many new punters who punt impulsively that any reduction in profits is more than made up for in either the short or long term.


Pokie machines don't make their coin from the person chucking in $50 once a week when they go to the pub. They make the majority of their money form people who siphon nearly every dollar they have due to addiction.

Sports betting is going the same way, but instead of affecting pensioners, its hitting younger men.

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

How on earth are the Crows $1.50 compared to Geelong $2.70...the line to Geelong has to be close to the bet of the year!

Gold Coast and Collingwood are great bets too. WC are hopeless at the MCG.

This round is a lottery.

Really? I understand the psychological side of the game is for mugs but I see Adelaide being switched on against Dangerfield, on a Friday night, where a loss would lose them top spot.

Adelaide will try here and that alone should be enough for it not to be bet of the year.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Really? I understand the psychological side of the game is for mugs but I see Adelaide being switched on against Dangerfield, on a Friday night, where a loss would lose them top spot.

Adelaide will try here and that alone should be enough for it not to be bet of the year.

Hasn't happened the last 10 times...

They aren't $1.50 favourites for mine. Might win but closer to $1.80. Taking Geelong to win and Geelong at the line.

 

[hedgedhog]

Do you really believe that the bookies are losing money with their 24pt payout offer??

Yes, larger punters with bowlers are redirecting their funds from other bookies to SB or bet365. They don't necessarily have the best odds but you would take 2.10 and the payout offer over 2.12 that Ubet etc. is offering + no limit on the offers.

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

Hasn't happened the last 10 times...

They aren't $1.50 favourites for mine. Might win but closer to $1.80. Taking Geelong to win and Geelong at the line.

What do you mean it "hasn't happened the last 10 times"?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

What do you mean it "hasn't happened the last 10 times"?

Geelong have won 11 out of the past 12 haven't they against Adelaide...

 

[wizzard400]

Off topic - anyone here punt on the NRL at all? I'm thinking of putting some coin down on the Broncos to beat the Bulldogs tonight but would like a 2nd opinion....

 

[iluvparis]

Off topic - anyone here punt on the NRL at all? I'm thinking of putting some coin down on the Broncos to beat the Bulldogs tonight but would like a 2nd opinion....

From my promo whoring experience this season the Dogs are absolutely soft as garbage

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Off topic - anyone here punt on the NRL at all? I'm thinking of putting some coin down on the Broncos to beat the Bulldogs tonight but would like a 2nd opinion....

Brisbane will win comfortably

 

[hedgedhog]

Off topic - anyone here punt on the NRL at all? I'm thinking of putting some coin down on the Broncos to beat the Bulldogs tonight but would like a 2nd opinion....

As a Dogs supporter, watching us is painful. We can't score tries for shit and struggled to put any past even the Knights

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

Geelong have won 11 out of the past 12 haven't they against Adelaide...

Yeah bet of the year. Stuff that happened 5 years ago proves it.

 

[Watts4Dinner]

Even without Dangerfield those odds are ridiculous. I'd take the 4 goal start or whatever they are giving.

Mackie, Stewart, Selwood most likely in as well. Possibly Cockatoo...Dangers not playing but they are fair ins. I'd be shocked if Sloane played.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Yeah bet of the year. Stuff that happened 5 years ago proves it.

They belted them this season already. Plus I'm assuming Sloane is out as well as Lever. That cancels Dangerfield missing

 

[Watts4Dinner]

They belted them this season already. Plus I'm assuming Sloane is out as well as Talia. That cancels Dangerfield missing

Lever.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Lever.

Yep sorry was doing it quick on my phone

 

[Spacedog]

Im liking the kittens, melbourne, and the tiges this week as underdogs. Although ill take us at the line to save double dissapointment when we go down by a goal

 

[Mazza12346]

Off topic - anyone here punt on the NRL at all? I'm thinking of putting some coin down on the Broncos to beat the Bulldogs tonight but would like a 2nd opinion....

Broncs will trounce them at suncorp
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