2017 Rising Star Discussion

[Beer n Skittles]

Take a look at @AFLPlayerRating's Tweet:
The third picture shows just how consistent Burton has been. Whilst still being the highest scorer over the year as a whole. Which is what this award is for. Curnow freakish finish though

Gee they rate Curnow. If he kept that up he'd be 7th, and #1 for forwards

 

[KermitJagger]

Charlie Curnow has - he's spent considerable time in the midfield in the last 3 or 4 weeks. Most contested possessions in the game last week.

That's fantastic, they've put him where the ball is and he's got it. We tried to put Burton forward, which is more complicated considering we've been awful at getting the ball forward all year. I'm not talking down Curnow at all, as he's been a jet, but it's not a fair comparison.

 

[jake_h03]

LOL....

When you can't offer up any sound & reasonable arguments to the contrary then attack the man.

Feel free to argue on the merits of whom-ever it is you'd like to see win the award, or who you reckon deserves to win it.

But, please.....Save the adolescent ad hom for the Bay muchacho.

I think Burton will win the award. I just think you're missing the point. I don't think you've presented any sound & reasonable arguments. It's basically just, he has more possessions and supercoach, therefore no one else can be considered for the award.

 

[Beer n Skittles]

That's fantastic, they've put him where the ball is and he's got it. We tried to put Burton forward, which is more complicated considering we've been awful at getting the ball forward all year. I'm not talking down Curnow at all, as he's been a jet, but it's not a fair comparison.

However bad Hawthorn have been at getting the ball forward, Carlton have clearly been worse. That's a weird line of reasoning

 

[KermitJagger]

However bad Hawthorn have been at getting the ball forward, Carlton have clearly been worse. That's a weird line of reasoning

Curnow wasn't really doing too well as a forward either, he's played more midfield time lately and that honestly looks like where he should stay.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

That's fantastic, they've put him where the ball is and he's got it. We tried to put Burton forward, which is more complicated considering we've been awful at getting the ball forward all year. I'm not talking down Curnow at all, as he's been a jet, but it's not a fair comparison.

Yes - although I don't believe this award is a 'fair' award. It comes down to a few subjective votes, late in the year. So any discussion which seems to promote one player over another is valid as we don't know which way the voters are going to look and assess each eligible player. Plus the media has a notoriously short memory and consistency isn't 'sexy', can almost guarantee there will be some peanut who votes for Houston and another who votes for Ainsworth.
The winner of this award, like a few of the previous selections, will come as a shock to quite a few supporters. Especially if dipsticks like Barratt are on the voting panel again.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

To be fair it isn't just one way though mate, lets not pretend other clubs supporters aren't just as guilty of this. People have tried to downplay Burton's performances by claiming he never has an opponent and just gets cheap sideways kicks off the half back line (which is bullshit).

I would never claim it is one way, not entirely. But I offer you the same challenge I gave another Hawthorn poster who protested, I'll tally up the anti-Burton examples and you can tally up the anti-everyone else examples made by Hawthorn supporters. I guarantee you I'll finish first by a long way

 

[Lance Uppercut]

Yes - although I don't believe this award is a 'fair' award. It comes down to a few subjective votes, late in the year. So any discussion which seems to promote one player over another is valid as we don't know which way the voters are going to look and assess each eligible player. Plus the media has a notoriously short memory and consistency isn't 'sexy', can almost guarantee there will be some peanut who votes for Houston and another who votes for Ainsworth.
The winner of this award, like a few of the previous selections, will come as a shock to quite a few supporters. Especially if dipsticks like Barratt are on the voting panel again.

so true. Although I think you're dead wrong on Houston or Ainsworth. No way, it's all about what's sexy and sticks in the mind, and they only get to vote for 5 players.

And what's almost certain is that the "sexy" option is now overwhelmingly Curnow - because he's such a beast of a player and evokes so many comparisons to such amazing players. Not that it would be undeserving by any stretch, but if you judge on a full year you probably wouldn't think Curnow should win. But the recency bias and subjectivity you mention lead me to thinking more and more each day I wouldn't be surprised if Curnow pulls it out.

And, if he does, good on him frankly. A very worthy peer to McGrath, Burton, and SPP and SPS - who are the only other guys who will poll even a single vote IMO. Maybe there will be an outrider for Hipwood, but that's about it I would think

 

[Beer n Skittles]

Curnow wasn't really doing too well as a forward either, he's played more midfield time lately and that honestly looks like where he should stay.

Don't agree with that. He's gone into the middle on occasion while still spending most of his time playing at CHF, where he looks best imo

 

[Love the Drake]

LOL....There's no need to denigrate McGrath....Who is going to be an absolute champion.

But lets face facts Lance.....By almost all statistical comparisons in 2017, Burton has had a superior season.....And it's not even close.

Ok. You seem to have all these stats at your fingertips. Why don't you show everyone the contested stats. You seem to be reluctant to do so.

The conspiracy theorists would say you're hiding something (that is that Burtons stats don't read so well). So for the third time...SHOW ME THE CONTESTED MARKS/POSSIES.

 

[footyfan1978]

Ok. You seem to have all these stats at your fingertips. Why don't you show everyone the contested stats. You seem to be reluctant to do so.

The conspiracy theorists would say you're hiding something (that is that Burtons stats don't read so well). So for the third time...SHOW ME THE CONTESTED MARKS/POSSIES.

CONTESTED MARKS
Charlie Curnow 35
Ryan Burton 10

MARKS INSIDE 50
Charlie Curnow 10
Ryan Burton 0

CONTESTED POSSIES
Charlie Curnow 131 (about 46% of his possessions are contested)
Ryan Burton 101 (less than 25% of his possessions are contested, guess he playing loose a lot)

 

[Cynic]

CONTESTED MARKS
Charlie Curnow 35
Ryan Burton 10

MARKS INSIDE 50
Charlie Curnow 10
Ryan Burton 0

CONTESTED POSSIES
Charlie Curnow 131 (about 46% of his possessions are contested)
Ryan Burton 101 (less than 25% of his possessions are contested, guess he playing loose a lot)

Now for a Hawk supporter to attack your stats and continue the juvenile circle.

 

[footyfan1978]

Now for a Hawk supporter to attack your stats and continue the juvenile circle.

They are not my stats.
ha ha
They are Burton's and Curnow's from the afl.com.au site

 

[Procrastinator35]

CONTESTED MARKS
Charlie Curnow 35
Ryan Burton 10

MARKS INSIDE 50
Charlie Curnow 10
Ryan Burton 0

CONTESTED POSSIES
Charlie Curnow 131 (about 46% of his possessions are contested)
Ryan Burton 101 (less than 25% of his possessions are contested, guess he playing loose a lot)

Now this is a perfect example of how to present a competent alternative case for your candidate of choice.

 

[jake_h03]

Now this is a perfect example of how to present a competent alternative case for who has better stats, not who has had the better year or should win the rising star.

EFA

 

[Love the Drake]

I'll say it again. I don't really care who wins the award this year. Any one of 4-5 could win it. We all love our players so we hope they win, but it really means nothing in the long run.

As a Carlton supporter I would be absolutely rapt to take McGrath, Burton, SPP etc off your collective hands..but keep your hands off Curnow or SPS!!

Good luck to all the young fellas. I'm tipping a close count..MAY THE BEST PLAYER WIN and all the boys play over 200 games as 'one team players'

 

[Procrastinator35]

I think Burton will win the award.

No need for EFA.....44 posts in 10 years?.....Hmmm

How long you been holding on to this joker for?

 

[jake_h03]

No need for EFA.....44 posts in 10 years?.....Hmmm

How long you been holding on to this joker for?

Yeah I usually stay well away from bigfooty

 

[Procrastinator35]

Yeah I usually stay well away from bigfooty

And yet, you exhibit a familiarity with it's nomenclature all the same.

It's sweet that you have developed such a passion for all things Rising Star, to feel it necessary to regale us with your company.....Glad to have 'stoked' your interest.

 

[jake_h03]

And yet, you exhibit a familiarity with it's nomenclature all the same.

It's sweet that you have developed such a passion for all things Rising Star, to feel it necessary to regale us with your company.....Glad to have 'stoked' your interest.

Yup, I'm very interested in it, it's such an even year this year

 

[Suntory Boss Coffee]

I would say this stat is something that isn't measured as part of the player rankings but speaks volumes for his impact on games. When you look purely at his rebound and offensive play he is very impressive, but its the stats that aren't recorded in these rankings for McGrath which make him even more impressive.

I'd argue that it does reflect in the ratings. The whole point of the rankings is to show more than kicks and handballs, it shows one percenters, tackles, def 50 efficiency etc etc. When players are in McGrath they average a lot less than what they usually do. This wouldn't be because they just don't kick it to the player (although this would be the case some times as McGrath has amazing an read on the play so he positions himself so that his opponent won't get it kicked to him, but this would only be rarely). But anyway, what are the other reasons that they average less rating points? The ball goes to a one on one, McGrath's opponent has an easy mark but is spoiled by a fast closing McGrath. This spoil is a one percenter and would go to his AFL ranking point. On the next throw in McGrath's opponent has the opportunity to get the ball, McGrath positions himself between the ball and opponent, Heppell then comes in and kicks the ball away. These two acts are both defensive in nature and are actually used in he AFLPlayerRatings. These defensive acts that are measured are the reason I am such a fan of them as opposed to the Supercoach/Fantasy rankings where players can just rack up points (think Tom Mitchell)

 

[Le Archie]

I'd argue that it does reflect in the ratings. The whole point of the rankings is to show more than kicks and handballs, it shows one percenters, tackles, def 50 efficiency etc etc. When players are in McGrath they average a lot less than what they usually do. This wouldn't be because they just don't kick it to the player (although this would be the case some times as McGrath has amazing an read on the play so he positions himself so that his opponent won't get it kicked to him, but this would only be rarely). But anyway, what are the other reasons that they average less rating points? The ball goes to a one on one, McGrath's opponent has an easy mark but is spoiled by a fast closing McGrath. This spoil is a one percenter and would go to his AFL ranking point. On the next throw in McGrath's opponent has the opportunity to get the ball, McGrath positions himself between the ball and opponent, Heppell then comes in and kicks the ball away. These two acts are both defensive in nature and are actually used in he AFLPlayerRatings. These defensive acts that are measured are the reason I am such a fan of them as opposed to the Supercoach/Fantasy rankings where players can just rack up points (think Tom Mitchell)

Can you show me how the ranking system points are measured because that's one hell of a calculation system if you can generate ranking points by standing in between your opponent and the ball allowing your teammate to gather a ball... how would the statisticians be able to decipher that his body positioning allows his teammate to collect and negates the opposition? how many points do you get for that?

Having now read how the points are calculated, there is still greater weighting to more of the traditional statistics and the above example is absolutely not taken into consideration. My original point still stands that as a whole, McGrath judged on both offensive and defensive output is a very worthy winner of the RS.

 

[Love the Drake]

I'd argue that it does reflect in the ratings. The whole point of the rankings is to show more than kicks and handballs, it shows one percenters, tackles, def 50 efficiency etc etc. When players are in McGrath they average a lot less than what they usually do. This wouldn't be because they just don't kick it to the player (although this would be the case some times as McGrath has amazing an read on the play so he positions himself so that his opponent won't get it kicked to him, but this would only be rarely). But anyway, what are the other reasons that they average less rating points? The ball goes to a one on one, McGrath's opponent has an easy mark but is spoiled by a fast closing McGrath. This spoil is a one percenter and would go to his AFL ranking point. On the next throw in McGrath's opponent has the opportunity to get the ball, McGrath positions himself between the ball and opponent, Heppell then comes in and kicks the ball away. These two acts are both defensive in nature and are actually used in he AFLPlayerRatings. These defensive acts that are measured are the reason I am such a fan of them as opposed to the Supercoach/Fantasy rankings where players can just rack up points (think Tom Mitchell)

Yawn..

 

[Procrastinator35]

Now for a Hawk supporter to attack your stats and continue the juvenile circle.

It would appear that the only juvenile circle-work in operation here....Is between you & the Jake.

 

[Sector 7G]

This popularity contest is named the Rising Star Award. Not the young player most consistently playing slightly above average football in their position award.

Charlie's stocks are rising like no other player in the league. Should win it in a canter.