AFL 2018 - AFL Finals Week 1

[Jugada]

how can collingwood be $7 to win flag and $3 to make grand final and west coast be $8 to win the flag and $3 to make grand final when the odds for this week have west coast favourites.

is that saying collingwood are just as likely to make grand final and more likely to win grand final having to play richmond in prelim as west coast are hosting a prelim?

seems like it should be the other way

Because the match will be played at the MCG where Collingwood would start shorter than West Coast

 

[Vitalogy]

Anyone else thinking Geelong are huge value?! Experienced campaigners - can Melbourne perform?

 

[adammania9]

SportsBet are paying $20.75 for Richmond H-H and Roughead 3+ goals

Roughy slotted 4 the last time they met and he has always been a big game player so I am on that.

You bet I went off my **** when he kicked that ripper in the last minute

 

[mac23]

Kelly 30+ paying $6.50

Hit in 4 of the cats last 5 night games in Vic. Named at HF on Hibberd.

Thoughts?

 

[Jugada]

Kelly 30+ paying $6.50

Hit in 4 of the cats last 5 night games in Vic. Named at HF on Hibberd.

Thoughts?

First thoughts are you are cherry picking stats to talk yourself into backing it. 4 of the cats last 5 night matches in VIC is a pretty useless stat unless there are reasons for why the match being a VIC night game makes much difference

 

[puntking]

put all remaining games either team under 15

 

[mac23]

First thoughts are you are cherry picking stats to talk yourself into backing it. 4 of the cats last 5 night matches in VIC is a pretty useless stat unless there are reasons for why the match being a VIC night game makes much difference

Wouldn't say I'm talking myself into it mate just opening up for discussion and yeah it's not an overly important stat but at the very least it shows he is capable of a big game on recent form. He had 27 (MCG) and 32 (GMHBA) in the two matchups with the dees this year. $6.50 just seems like it could be overs is all I'm saying.

 

[Jugada]

Wouldn't say I'm talking myself into it mate just opening up for discussion and yeah it's not an overly important stat but at the very least it shows he is capable of a big game on recent form. He had 27 (MCG) and 32 (GMHBA) in the two matchups with the dees this year. $6.50 just seems like it could be overs is all I'm saying.

Yeah im just saying VIC night games aren't a good metric to say whether its a good bet or not so it looked like you were just searching for stats to support it.

Averages 23 touches a game and has gone 30+ four times this year so odds avg odds of $5.50 would be the break even to this point. Not a terrible bet

 

[adammania9]

Kelly reeks of 21-23 touches and a goal, which is a fine game but obviously not for betting.

 

[adammania9]

How about Oliver 30+ and Melbourne win for $3.50 on Ladbrokes promotions


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[chrisdon16]

Melbourne -3.5 ($2 Topsport)

Got the Dees winning by 4 goals. Think the midfield dominate tonight led by Gawn. Dees beat the cats in R18 convincingly for 3 quarters. Took a ridiculous last quarter to beat them. 8.0 in the 4th, 16.4 for the game vs 14.14. IMO they don't make the same mistake again. The only question mark is can they handle the pressure of an elimination final.

 

[andwhenitcomes]

Alex Neal-Bullen anytime goal @ 1.72, Alex Neal-Bullen to kick 2+ @ 5.00 (both Sportsbet).

Goaled in 15/22 and multiple goals in 7/22 this season.

 

[timster]

Melbourne -3.5 ($2 Topsport)

Got the Dees winning by 4 goals. Think the midfield dominate tonight led by Gawn. Dees beat the cats in R18 convincingly for 3 quarters. Took a ridiculous last quarter to beat them. 8.0 in the 4th, 16.4 for the game vs 14.14. IMO they don't make the same mistake again. The only question mark is can they handle the pressure of an elimination final.

I agree look at the form of both teams the last 5 rounds. Dees much better for mine. I think Dees will handle the pressure just fine

 

[andwhenitcomes]

I agree look at the form of both teams the last 5 rounds. Dees much better for mine. I think Dees will handle the pressure just fine

Could even go back a little further - Dees have covered 7/8 at the line since the St Kilda game, with the 1 against Sydney (6 more scoring shots + 17 more inside 50s).

 

[Robo87]

Alex Neal-Bullen anytime goal @ 1.72, Alex Neal-Bullen to kick 2+ @ 5.00 (both Sportsbet).
Goaled in 15/22 and multiple goals in 7/22 this season.

tailing. NB is listed forward pocket too. I also like Hannan btw.
0.5u Hannan ATGS @1.52 b365 (scored 1g+ in 10/12 games) cant find much value in odds tho.
0.5u Hannan 2g+ @5.5 b365 (2g+ in 6/12 games)
0.3u Hannan 3g+ @21 b365 (3g+ in 3/12 games)

 

[X_box_X]

FWIW, $61 was matched on Betfair at $44, $46 and $48 for Hannan to kick most goals. Good luck to that lucky punter (no, not me this time).

 

[demon_fanatic]

tailing. NB is listed forward pocket too. I also like Hannan btw.
0.5u Hannan ATGS @1.52 b365 (scored 1g+ in 10/12 games) cant find much value in odds tho.
0.5u Hannan 2g+ @5.5 b365 (2g+ in 6/12 games)
0.3u Hannan 3g+ @21 b365 (3g+ in 3/12 games)

Hannan great value

 

[X_box_X]

Petracca at $34 most goals with TAB

 

[adammania9]

Why not?

 

[Robo87]

Hannan great value

Hannan blowing his own chances twice early inside the dees 50. But at least the dees are getting their hands on the ball.

 

[chrisdon16]

Got a bad feeling Melbourne are going to throw this away. They're not choking just not taking their chances.

 

[ash_1050]

Half time bets:
Geelong 1-24 $100 @ $6
Melbourne 1-24 $100 @ $2.40

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Half time bets:
Geelong 1-24 $100 @ $6
Melbourne 1-24 $100 @ $2.40

Legendary

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ash_1050]

Legendary

Or not

 

[Browney2006]

Tough game to bet on tonight. Unless of course you were on the dees