Preview 2018 Hawthorn war-chest of awesomeness and envy!

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I am going to remain very skeptical about him. The AFL just can't afford to him to leave the little child of the AFL... Even though it is a delinquent child
The AFL couldn't afford Jaeger to leave either, but he turned his back on the GC and left.

Ultimately, if the player wants out, they will go, regardless of what secret deals the AFL offer.
 
Has news come out of the Lynch camp that I haven't seen yet? Why the optimism?

I did hear him interviewed a couple of months ago and he didn't sound like he wanted to stay at all
Read the posts above mine.
 

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We all thought we would land a player as a FA last year to. I’ll believe it when I see it.

We’ve only landed Frawley as a FA and we’d just come off two flags.

Time to deliver a big name FA
 
We all thought we would land a player as a FA last year to. I’ll believe it when I see it.

We’ve only landed Frawley as a FA and we’d just come off two flags.

Time to deliver a big name FA
It is only worth bringing in an expensive free agent if they are really going to add value on the field. I believe Lynch would and would love to have him, especially at his age and the role we need to replace (Roughy both as a key forward and as a leader). If we failed to nab Lynch, I'd be stoked if we could get McGovern.

Wouldn't be keen on the club bringing a Rory Sloane type FA in though and not because he isn't an excellent footballer but we got manage the age profile of our list strategically as we have a large # of players between 26 & 30 and he's on the 30 side of things these days not the 26 side.
 
Personally I think he'll land elsewhere unless we finish 2018 looking like the team most likely to win a flag in 2019. To get Lynch would be a complete reversal of everything Hawthorn has done at the trade table in the last decade unless he comes at a bargain basement price. All our trades have been "value trades" for players who were seen at the time as very good, but not elite (Gibson, McEvoy, Hale), or if they were seen as elite, were seen to have injury (Burgoyne, O'Meara) or longevity/beyond their best concerns (Lake). Gunston and T.Mitchell probably the exceptions, but T.Mitchell had question marks on how he'd go when he got attention as the #1 mid and Gunston was obviously talented , but still somewhat unproven when he moved back east. We've certainly not been shy to throw picks around, but while Lynch might be moving for success, his manager will not be keen to let him move without maximising Lynch's value, and I don't think Lynch will consider a bargain price unless he thinks we are his best chance of a flag, and paying massive overs in terms of cap space doesn't seem to be something we've been keen to do (Vickery seems an exception, but I think his numbers would have looked much lower if he was actually paid for 3 years instead of his initial 2, and that this was the plan from the start).

I'm not sure how much you can believe the 'down to Hawthorn and Pies' rumours either. Way too early, and if I was him, I'd be keeping a close eye on how 2018 unfolds before getting anywhere near a final decision if I was moving clubs to hunt flags given the 2017 performance of both mentioned teams.

This all ignores how we went after Frawley who was the prized recruit at the end of 2014. We didn’t pay overs, granted, but it’s not completely unlike us to go for a big target.
 
I don’t think we need to show we are capable of winning the flag in 2019 necessarily. Realistically we’ll just need to show that we’re not going to be dropping off a cliff and that the young list under Clarko’s hand is going places over the next 3-5 years. Very achievable with our returning players.

I didn't mean from Hawthorn's point in terms of justifying chasing him, I meant from Lynch's point of view in terms of choosing us. While I think we'll do ok next year, "ok" might not be enough for Lynch who is apparently chasing short term flags. While I agree we can try to sell a Clarko-led climb up the ladder, selling futures is harder than selling the right now, which is what some other clubs are in a better position to do than - event if we did finish well in 2017. If we can't do well enough in 2018 to do more than sell a "what the team could become in the future with you in the forward line in a few years time" story, I think we'll struggle to convince him.

We've still got a fairly old age profile, so while I think we have some good young players, if we can't sell the idea of a flag in 2019, based on what happens in 2018, there is a real risk we'll have another dip while we find replacements for the other guys reaching the end before another tilt, and I'm not sure if Lynch wants to risk that. It would still make sense for us to want Lynch who is only 25 right now, but I'm not sure Lynch would reciprocate those feelings given he's been sucked in to the "we'll be good soon" mantra for his entire career, and appears to have had enough of it.
 
This all ignores how we went after Frawley who was the prized recruit at the end of 2014. We didn’t pay overs, granted, but it’s not completely unlike us to go for a big target.

I still didn't see Frawley as a "big fish" at the time. He was AA in 2010, and we didn't get him until 2015. I'd say he was a well above average defender, and I'm happy he's on our list, but I'm not sure anyone could call him elite. I see him as another of our "value for money" deals for players considered just under the elite level by the rest of the competition, but filling essential roles in our structure.
 
This all ignores how we went after Frawley who was the prized recruit at the end of 2014. We didn’t pay overs, granted, but it’s not completely unlike us to go for a big target.
Also when it’s part of a succession plan. In that case as a KPD replacement for Lake.

We are now faced with the same requirement with our KPF. We need a successor for Roughy in the near future. We currently have a lot of flanker/3rd tall types (eg. Gunston, Burton, Sicily, O’Brien and Ross) but our only “big bodied” KPFs on the list are Schoenmakers (195cm, 93kg) and Lewis (198cm, 92kg). Handy depth and a project player. We need someone who has the presence and ability to be the key target up forward.

That someone could be Tom Lynch in 2018.

Or we try and trade for someone like Sam Weideman from Melbourne, or Rory Lobb from GWS in 2019. Either would still be expensive acquisitions and probably not as good.
 
I didn't mean from Hawthorn's point in terms of justifying chasing him, I meant from Lynch's point of view in terms of choosing us.
So did I.

We’ve got some older players for sure, but I see that as a plus. They’re playing mostly supporting roles and have heaps of premiership experience. The new core of young players (O’Meara, Mitchell, Sicily, Burton, Hardwick, Lovell, O’Brien, Brand, etc) - despite what a few Essendon supporters will try to convince you of - are really promising. The improvement from that group is what he’ll be more interested in I reckon than whether or not guys like Stratton, Birchall, Rioli, Roughead, etc will still be firing for years to come.

No doubt Clarko will be sharing with him the vision and what we’re doing to achieve it. We can only guess.
 
I think lynch is getting talked up beyond his career output.

I like the way the guy plays but it’s not like you tune in every week to watch Tom Lynch tear apart.

We are talking about paying two million dollars per year to a guy who kicked 44 goals in a season.

Reckon the hype is extending beyond his output
 
I think lynch is getting talked up beyond his career output.

I like the way the guy plays but it’s not like you tune in every week to watch Tom Lynch tear apart.

We are talking about paying two million dollars per year to a guy who kicked 44 goals in a season.

Reckon the hype is extending beyond his output
Probably. But then he’s playing for Gold Coast and getting the delivery you’d expect from a rubbish side with no direction.
 

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I think lynch is getting talked up beyond his career output.

I like the way the guy plays but it’s not like you tune in every week to watch Tom Lynch tear apart.

We are talking about paying two million dollars per year to a guy who kicked 44 goals in a season.

Reckon the hype is extending beyond his output
his 2016 was pretty decent, the question really is always, what if he was in a better team

He's not quite Josh Kennedy but he's ahead of where Josh was at the same time in their careers as far as best season
 
I still didn't see Frawley as a "big fish" at the time. He was AA in 2010, and we didn't get him until 2015. I'd say he was a well above average defender, and I'm happy he's on our list, but I'm not sure anyone could call him elite. I see him as another of our "value for money" deals for players considered just under the elite level by the rest of the competition, but filling essential roles in our structure.

Don’t disagree with your points - but there was an article almost a few times a week talking about where Frawley was going. He may not be a Franklin or Dangerfield - but he was definitely the prized recruit from that offseason.
 
Does restricted free agency mean that if GC match our offer (which they will) we will have to trade for him?

From the AFL website...

RESTRICTED FREE AGENTS

Players who are in the top 25 per cent of salaries at their club (that is, in the club’s top nine-10 paid players) are eligible for restricted free agency the first time they are out of contract, if they have served at least eight years with the club.

For example, a player who is contracted after his seventh year for one, two, three, four or five years will be eligible for restricted free agency when next out of contract having completed either eight, nine, 10, 11 or 12 seasons respectively.

A top 25 per cent player is eligible for unrestricted free agency when next out of contract, provided a player can never be an unrestricted free agent until completing at least 10 years’ service at one club.

For example, a player who signs a one-year contract after his eighth season is not eligible for unrestricted free agency until he has completed at least 10 years’ service.

Restricted free agents have the right to move to a club of their choice, subject to the current club’s right of first refusal over their services. That is, if the current club can ‘match’ the offer from a suitor club, the player must stay or enter the draft. The tabled offer includes only football payments and Additional Service Agreements (ASA) amounts.
 
his 2016 was pretty decent, the question really is always, what if he was in a better team

He's not quite Josh Kennedy but he's ahead of where Josh was at the same time in their careers as far as best season
Wel I don’t thubk josh Kennedy is worth 1-2m per year either.

Can we force collingwood to pay too much then get one of our better value pickups like burger, Gibbo or omeara?
 
Wel I don’t thubk josh Kennedy is worth 1-2m per year either.

Can we force collingwood to pay too much then get one of our better value pickups like burger, Gibbo or omeara?
not suggesting he is, just that Lynch is tracking as well or better than Kennedy, and the cap is going up which means guys will make more than those that came before even if they are only as good or not even as good.

It will be interesting to see where the market sets his price, as opposed to BF and the Media
 
So did I.

We’ve got some older players for sure, but I see that as a plus. They’re playing mostly supporting roles and have heaps of premiership experience. The new core of young players (O’Meara, Mitchell, Sicily, Burton, Hardwick, Lovell, O’Brien, Brand, etc) - despite what a few Essendon supporters will try to convince you of - are really promising. The improvement from that group is what he’ll be more interested in I reckon than whether or not guys like Stratton, Birchall, Rioli, Roughead, etc will still be firing for years to come.

No doubt Clarko will be sharing with him the vision and what we’re doing to achieve it. We can only guess.

I agree with everything you say, but I still think we need to back it up with a convincing 2018. If we factor in further improvement from youth, getting a bunch of players back from injury, and our post-bye form, we might even make top 4 this year if everything goes well. However, if we have another down year, I think it becomes harder to sell the "come to us to win a flag" story.

Yes, we'll still get improvement from the kids you've named after this year, but 2019 we'll start to see some of that improvement offset by the departure or slowing down of some very very good players. We may be able to cover all of that by bringing in Lynch, relying on improvement from the kids and some judicious parting with draft picks in trade period, but the story is starting to rest a lot on possibilities rather than concrete performance at that stage. I just can't see Lynch choosing us over other options if we don't play finals this year, no matter what story we lay out about the bright future.
 
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I think lynch is getting talked up beyond his career output.

I like the way the guy plays but it’s not like you tune in every week to watch Tom Lynch tear apart.

We are talking about paying two million dollars per year to a guy who kicked 44 goals in a season.

Reckon the hype is extending beyond his output

He would be better in a better side and he is something we don’t have a play who can take a strong mark in the forward line. We haven’t had for years Roughy has never been a strong mark or Buddy never was.
 
I think lynch is getting talked up beyond his career output.

I like the way the guy plays but it’s not like you tune in every week to watch Tom Lynch tear apart.

We are talking about paying two million dollars per year to a guy who kicked 44 goals in a season.

Reckon the hype is extending beyond his output
Tom Boyd was handed $6m as a 19 year old who'd achieved nothing. Dominant KPF's don't grow on trees, I'm not saying Lynch is worth it but clearly its a seller's market.

Unfortunately if the AFL has any brains they'll make him an offer he can't refuse and he'll stay at GC. Would be another nail in the franchise's coffin if he left.
 
Tom Boyd was handed $6m as a 19 year old who'd achieved nothing. Dominant KPF's don't grow on trees, I'm not saying Lynch is worth it but clearly its a seller's market.

Unfortunately if the AFL has any brains they'll make him an offer he can't refuse and he'll stay at GC. Would be another nail in the franchise's coffin if he left.
Yea that was ridiculous. Since then they've traded in Cloke and Schache, trying to fill the hole that Boyd hasn't been able to. Bad move by the dogs and I think that was a rare moment-in-time thing that could happen because of their cap situation and the exodus of senior players that was happening.

Lynch - yeah he's good. He would make us better - but we gotta consider who deserves 10% of our salary cap. That's a big piece of the pie. I know everyone is saying he'd perform better in a better team - but great KPFs in dud teams can sometimes become the only focal point and do quite well. e.g. Mark Williams when we were crap, Fev, Jeremy Cameron before GWS were making finals, Ben Brown this year, etc.

Call me tight, but if we're going to spend up I want to be absolutely sure of it.
 
How the free agency rules are written on the AFL site is pretty ambiguous.

They way I read it, once an offer is matched then the only options are the draft or to stay.
 
Yea that was ridiculous. Since then they've traded in Cloke and Schache, trying to fill the hole that Boyd hasn't been able to. Bad move by the dogs and I think that was a rare moment-in-time thing that could happen because of their cap situation and the exodus of senior players that was happening.

Lynch - yeah he's good. He would make us better - but we gotta consider who deserves 10% of our salary cap. That's a big piece of the pie. I know everyone is saying he'd perform better in a better team - but great KPFs in dud teams can sometimes become the only focal point and do quite well. e.g. Mark Williams when we were crap, Fev, Jeremy Cameron before GWS were making finals, Ben Brown this year, etc.

Call me tight, but if we're going to spend up I want to be absolutely sure of it.
I agree completely about Boyd, and wouldn't want to see the Hawks dump $1.5m+ on Lynch either since one of the keys to our 3peat was signing a list of stars at below-market rates. Not only does it allow more talent to be squeezed onto the list but also mitigates fringe-player resentment of the megabuck salaries of the stars.

However there's no doubt a number of Victorian clubs will be willing to offer Lynch $1.5m+ a year (Carlton & Collingwood for starters) and I find it difficult to believe he'd sign with us for significantly less due to Clarko and the club's reputation for success when the last two flags have been won by teams who came out of left field. The competition's so even that very few Victorian teams wouldn't be a genuine Premiership threat in a year or so if you added a Coleman-level forward to their list. Norf & Carlton perhaps, the rest would all be pretty scary with Lynch at FF.
 

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