Traded 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

[1990crow]

Yep, Carlton didn't have injuries at all in 2018.

Please just stop.

Stop? I’m just trying to provide a little sensibility to the argument.
Carlton’s injury list isn’t the reason for finishing the worst any side has for a few decades. If they had a reasonable year injury wise they would’ve still likely been dead last.
Most of Adelaides A graders suffered injury this year, we shall see come end of next year but with the likes of Brodie Smith, Brad Crouch, Tom Lynch, Taylor Walker, Rory Sloane, Eddie Betts, Kyle Hartigan, Hugh Greenwood, Matt Crouch, Paul Seedsman, Riley Knight all missing large chunks of the year it’s not hard to see why Adelaide didn’t make the 8, and yet still won 12 games.

 

[Jeremias]

Stop? I’m just trying to provide a little sensibility to the argument.

No, you're really not. And you reinforced that in your very next sentence.

So yes, stop, because you don't know what you're talking about, and you've shown as much countless times over the past few months when posting about Carlton.

Be gone.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I mean, regardless of where Adelaide finish (you would think it wouldnt be worse than this year given their age profile) it would be very surprising for Carlton to finish outside the bottom 4.

They just won 2 games, 2...

Look how excited everyone is over Brisbane after finally showing something and they won 5 to finish 4th last.

Would be a truly incredible achievement to finish outside the bottom 4 for the Blues so you'd hope they rate Stocker something special

 

[Bearded Clam]

Pretty confident Carlton finish bottom 3 and Adelaide around 8ish.

Doesn't look good on paper

-Adelaide had 7 of its 2017 top 10 b&f players out for either the entire season (bcrouch and smith), half the season (sloane) or good chunks of the season (tex, betts, lynch, mcrouch, talia) in 2018.
It also had a multitude of injuries to its second tier players like hartigan, mcgovern, knight.. at one point i think they had about 10 players out with hamstring injuries.

-It had a ruckman who played with back issues all year in jacobs who had to keep toiling on because their second ruck was out for most of the season with a shoulder injury.

-It had one of the toughest draws of the comp due to making the grand final the year before.

-it had off field dramas with constant media speculation surrounding a stupid off season camp.

Seasons dont get much more crap than that... but knowing don pyke he wont let it happen again and they have already made big changes to their fitness staff incliding bringing in one of the best..

And yet they still won 12 games including beating the tigers and the premiers WC and just missed the 8. And they flogged the living hell out of carlton in the last round.

In 2019 they have a soft draw and, if they can stay injury free, I’m confident they can bounce back to their 2017 heights.

Those here claiming Adelaide wont make the 8 again next year are being slightly naive IMO... Guess we’ll just have to wait and see though..

 

[Monkey King]

Mines much more likely. Adelaide made a GF in 2017 and was ravaged by injury in 2018. Carlton have been shit the whole time.

Yeah. Carlton had a shocking run with injuries too; can’t consider one and just ignore the other.

The Crows made a GF with guys like Cameron, McGovern, Lever all contributing over the journey. They’re all now gone. Jacobs was in almost career best form and Betts up and about, now both into their 30’s seem to be slowing down. Key players in Sloane and Walker start next season at 29yo, not 27yo like in 2017. I mean good on supporters for being bullish about their team’s chances, but I’d caution this trade is far from a forgone result at this stage.

 

[Demon bhoy]

Definitely a risk, but I'd be surprised if the Crows finish top 4 next year. Top 8 is a possibility but I don't think they will get back there.

Either way pick 1-4 for ~10 and 19 is still a gamble by the blues

It’s a good move Crows are mediocre at best and the blues believe they got a kid who was worth a top 10 pick, definitely a chance worth taking for maybe 6 to 8 spots in a draft that is 12 months away

 

[dlb99]

Stop? I’m just trying to provide a little sensibility to the argument.
Carlton’s injury list isn’t the reason for finishing the worst any side has for a few decades. If they had a reasonable year injury wise they would’ve still likely been dead last.
Most of Adelaides A graders suffered injury this year, we shall see come end of next year but with the likes of Brodie Smith, Brad Crouch, Tom Lynch, Taylor Walker, Rory Sloane, Eddie Betts, Kyle Hartigan, Hugh Greenwood, Matt Crouch, Paul Seedsman, Riley Knight all missing large chunks of the year it’s not hard to see why Adelaide didn’t make the 8, and yet still won 12 games.

Melbourne in 2013 won 2 games with a percentage of 54% (Carlton's percentage this year was 59%).
They finished 2nd last that year, GWS won 1 game with a percentage of 50%.

Carlton had a crap year this year, no doubt. But it is not the worst of any side for a few decades.

 

[dlb99]

I mean, regardless of where Adelaide finish (you would think it wouldnt be worse than this year given their age profile) it would be very surprising for Carlton to finish outside the bottom 4.

They just won 2 games, 2...

Look how excited everyone is over Brisbane after finally showing something and they won 5 to finish 4th last.

Would be a truly incredible achievement to finish outside the bottom 4 for the Blues so you'd hope they rate Stocker something special

Year before 6, year before that 7.

Each year is a new chapter.

I am sure after 2017 the Crows for certain thought they would go back to the big dance after adding Gibbs (pssst, they missed the finals).
How many pencilled in West Coast and Collingwood in this years Grand Final?
Or Richmond winning in 17? Or Bulldogs in 16?

Carlton may win 2 games in 2019 if things go horribly wrong, but it may also win 9 wins if things go extremely well.

We don't know what will happen.

 

[Monkey King]

Stop? I’m just trying to provide a little sensibility to the argument.
Carlton’s injury list isn’t the reason for finishing the worst any side has for a few decades. If they had a reasonable year injury wise they would’ve still likely been dead last.

Carlton had two players in the AA squad in 2017. One didn’t get on the park at all last season and the other, along with the club 2017 BnF hardly got a run at it. Overall, Carlton had only two players play every game and lost more games to injury than any other club (I think, maybe one club it worse). But hey, yeah has nothing at all to do with Carlton’s performance, guys like Mullet, O’Shea and Rowe were adequate fill-ins right? Especially compared to the Crows missing their “A-graders” like Riley Knight, Hugh Greenwood and Kyle Hartigan.

And that’s you’re attempt at being sensible? Lol.

 

[Chism]

Crows supporters are like Jekyll and Hyde depending on where they post and it is hilarious!

On their own board they are not happy about the trade and points wise it is very marginal as illustrated by this...

Based on the AFL's Draft Value Index (DVI), the Blues will accrue more value from the deal should it finish 14th or above next year – regardless of the Crows' fortunes.

Even if Adelaide wins the flag – which is arguably a bigger 'if' than Carlton finishing 14th on the ladder – the Blues will have gained more DVI points than they will lose from the trade.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/the-blues-and-crows-trade-how-the-numbers-stack-up

Soon as the usual posters though hit public boards it is a full turn around as common logic exits their brains and the trolling kicks in as they immaturely forget that all boards are public on here!

Both teams have done ok from this trade IMO and nobody has a crystal ball in regards to next seasons results but even IF the Crows win the Flag which is pretty unlikely we still come out ok points wise IF we finish above 15th on the ladder.

Crows fans seem to be taking whatever they can from the draft in which they missed all the massive SA targets even with so many picks and now just resort to trolling others and working out ways to get the SA kids back after 2 years for massive unders!

 

[Elite Crow]

Melbourne in 2013 won 2 games with a percentage of 54% (Carlton's percentage this year was 59%).
They finished 2nd last that year, GWS won 1 game with a percentage of 50%.

Carlton had a crap year this year, no doubt. But it is not the worst of any side for a few decades.

Where did Melbourne finish the following year?

 

[Elite Crow]

Crows supporters are like Jekyll and Hyde depending on where they post and it is hilarious!

On their own board they are not happy about the trade and points wise it is very marginal as illustrated by this...



http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/the-blues-and-crows-trade-how-the-numbers-stack-up

Soon as the usual posters though hit public boards it is a full turn around as common logic exits their brains and the trolling kicks in as they immaturely forget that all boards are public on here!

Both teams have done ok from this trade IMO and nobody has a crystal ball in regards to next seasons results but even IF the Crows win the Flag which is pretty unlikely we still come out ok points wise IF we finish above 15th on the ladder.

Crows fans seem to be taking whatever they can from the draft in which they missed all the massive SA targets even with so many picks and now just resort to trolling others and working out ways to get the SA kids back after 2 years for massive unders!

Haven’t you just trolled Crows supporters with your last comment?

As for points, I do not understand why anyone brings this up when discussing trades. Points have no relevance except for father son and academy picks.

 

[King Elvis]

I see it very similarly.

Carlton could very easily finish above the likes of Gold Coast, St. Kilda and Fremantle, given a favourable injury run.

The likes of Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Port Adelaide are either declining from successful periods or in a state of limbo sitting around the 6-10th position. A few of these teams will have poor seasons, just going by the odds.

I’d say you’re right about the bottom 4, but I can’t see any of the teams listed in your second paragraph sliding that badly.

 

[Drewie11]

Carlton had two players in the AA squad in 2017. One didn’t get on the park at all last season and the other, along with the club 2017 BnF hardly got a run at it. Overall, Carlton had only two players play every game and lost more games to injury than any other club (I think, maybe one club it worse). But hey, yeah has nothing at all to do with Carlton’s performance, guys like Mullet, O’Shea and Rowe were adequate fill-ins right? Especially compared to the Crows missing their “A-graders” like Riley Knight, Hugh Greenwood and Kyle Hartigan.

And that’s you’re attempt at being sensible? Lol.

You had Docherty miss which is massive as he is a gun and I’ll give you that. We had Brodie Smith and Brad Crouch miss the whole season and Sloane miss 10 or so weeks.

We just have to wait and see how this pans out but at the moment I am super confident that we will come out well ahead in this trade

 

[juddanaught09]

Pretty confident Carlton finish bottom 3 and Adelaide around 8ish.

Doesn't look good when I ask my magic 8-ball to tell me the ladder positions in 2019

Fixed.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Crows supporters are like Jekyll and Hyde depending on where they post and it is hilarious!

On their own board they are not happy about the trade and points wise it is very marginal as illustrated by this...



http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/the-blues-and-crows-trade-how-the-numbers-stack-up

Soon as the usual posters though hit public boards it is a full turn around as common logic exits their brains and the trolling kicks in as they immaturely forget that all boards are public on here!

Both teams have done ok from this trade IMO and nobody has a crystal ball in regards to next seasons results but even IF the Crows win the Flag which is pretty unlikely we still come out ok points wise IF we finish above 15th on the ladder.

Crows fans seem to be taking whatever they can from the draft in which they missed all the massive SA targets even with so many picks and now just resort to trolling others and working out ways to get the SA kids back after 2 years for massive unders!

The vast majority of Crows supporters on the Adelaide Board are excited by this trade & only the few negative nellies who are complaining like they do regardless every year. Just look at our poll results in the thread.

Best not to be dishonest posting on behalf of other teams...

 

[Elite Crow]

Looking at the teams that finished above Carlton.

Gold Coast odds on to finish bottom.
Saints finished 2.5 wins ahead of Carlton, the unknown is if they slide further or improve.
Lions 3 wins ahead and appear on the up.
Then you get to Freo and Bulldogs 6 wins ahead. Freo have some important ins with Hogan and Lobb but lost Neale. I can’t see them going backwards.
Bulldogs who knows but are Carlton going to make up 6 wins?

Realistically the best Carlton can hope for is bottom 4.

The Crows had the year from hell and still had 12 wins and missed the finals by 1 game. We’ve lost Gov but he played **** all. We have a host of players to come back, we get an extra months training in and we have a soft draw. I will be shocked if we don’t finish top 8 and should be higher.

So that’s 13&19 for pick 4.

That’s a bargain for the Crows.

If Carlton pick well next year and Stocker turns out a quality player then they will be happy, but remember teams very rarely trade top 4 picks for a reason and the cost is normally a lot more than what we gave up.

 

[Chism]

You had Docherty miss which is massive as he is a gun and I’ll give you that. We had Brodie Smith and Brad Crouch miss the whole season and Sloane miss 10 or so weeks.

We just have to wait and see how this pans out but at the moment I am super confident that we will come out well ahead in this trade

You do realize to come out even marginally in front you need to win the Flag and we need to finish below 15th?

That is also just marginally as there is literally no scenario that has you " comfortably " winning the trade or being well in front points wise in what many people think is a weaker draft next season.

 

[Drewie11]

You do realize to come out even marginally in front you need to win the Flag and we need to finish below 15th?

That is also just marginally as there is literally no scenario that has you " comfortably " winning the trade or being well in front points wise in what many people think is a weaker draft next season.

He you got pick 19 which is valued at 948 points

If you finish 17th like on the betting at the moment then that is 2,571 points

That means we need to finish 11th for you to make up the points.

What am I missing?

 

[dlb99]

I’d say you’re right about the bottom 4, but I can’t see any of the teams listed in your second paragraph sliding that badly.

Crows made the Grand Final in 2017, then missed the finals in 2018. Bet you did not see that coming.

Pies missed finals for 4 straight years, then made the Grand Final this year. Most scribes would not have thought that possible.

You don't know what will happen here, period. In fairness neither do I.

That's the beauty of this deal, it's all before us. That's a fact.

 

[dlb99]

He you got pick 19 which is valued at 948 points

If you finish 17th like on the betting at the moment then that is 2,571 points

That means we need to finish 11th for you to make up the points.

What am I missing?

Quality of Stocker.
Quality of the player Blues and Crows select in 2019.

Jack Watts was a pick 1 once.

This deal won't have a conclusion for at least five years.

 

[Drewie11]

Quality of Stocker.
Quality of the player Blues and Crows select in 2019.

Jack Watts was a pick 1 once.

This deal won't have a conclusion for at least five years.

Nick Reiwoldt was pick 1 also. You are 100% correct we won’t know for years but I’m trying to figure out the points thing he was talking about which has zero relevance at all

 

[Cleric]

Far be it for me to defend SOS, but for their progression they are better off getting a quality in like Stocker a year earlier than waiting till next year. They still have a first next year anyway, so its no big deal.

 

[dlb99]

Far be it for me to defend SOS, but for their progression they are better off getting a quality in like Stocker a year earlier than waiting till next year. They still have a first next year anyway, so its no big deal.

Thank you. Someone who gets it.

It's a good for the Crows, high pick next year.
It's a calculated gamble by the Blues to get a kid we like in this year whilst still having a later 1st round pick next year.

Why are the Blues and Crows trading so often? I bet SOS and Reid get along well now.

 

[Monkey King]

He you got pick 19 which is valued at 948 points

If you finish 17th like on the betting at the moment then that is 2,571 points

That means we need to finish 11th for you to make up the points.

What am I missing?

Well you finished 12th last season so ...

If we’re gonna take last season’s results as a litmus for the trade, then points-wise it’s a minor win to Carlton. If you think 2017 is a better benchmark, then points-wise it’s a minor win to the Crows.

Ultimately though, live trading renders DV points a poor tool, as clubs aren’t trading for picks alone here, they’re trading players. Carlton didn’t trade for pick 19, they traded for Stocker, in accord with their own draft board. If he wasn’t there, they wouldn’t have sought the pick; and if a player was available that the Crows rated top 10 on their draft board, they probably wouldn’t have traded the pick either.

It certainly adds an interesting dimension, because while everyone else scrambles about trying to quantify the exchange, club’s themselves have traded according to a whole different scale of measurement. If a club’s draft board is spot on, the DV points system becomes utterly redundant. After all Cripps’ DV was 1,212 compared to Boyd’s 3000.