Traded 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

[Joey JoJo Jr Shabadoo]

This trade highlights the benefits of live trading for me and credit must be given to both Adelaide and Carlton for having a crack. Early days I know, but looks like a mutually beneficial trade to me. With a seemingly easy draw Crows have every chance to make a run at the top 4/8 and Carlton probably still a few years from a significant climb up the ladder to be fair. However, if Stocker turns out to be a decent player it's happy days for everyone.

 

[Monkey King]

Pretty confident Carlton finish bottom 3 and Adelaide around 8ish.

Doesn't look good on paper

Strange conclusion.

If Carlton finished 15th and Adelaide 8th, then on paper, Carlton are the ones left with a DV profit.

 

[frankstone]

If this trade has taught me anything, it's that about a quarter of BigFooty still can't count to 2.

So for all the clageaters down the back, remember that Carlton gets Adelaide's 2019 first round pick AND #19 this year.

Lucky you got that 2nd win this season so you can surely count to 2!

But no seriously, more depends on Stocker than the numbers. Draft picks can be overrated at times anyway. I would lov the #1 selection, but it Stocker plays 200 good games for Carlton, it really isn't a bad move in the long run. More the perception of fans who hate losing high draft picks!

 

[Chism]

What am I missing?

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/the-blues-and-crows-trade-how-the-numbers-stack-up

 

[Joey JoJo Jr Shabadoo]

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-22/the-blues-and-crows-trade-how-the-numbers-stack-up

If you read that article it's all based on the premise that Carlton finish 14th or higher. Which in all likelihood isn't going to happen, so the article is kind of pointless.

 

[Checkered]

Strange conclusion.

If Carlton finished 15th and Adelaide 8th, then on paper, Carlton are the ones left with a DV profit.

Yeah I guess that's a win on paper. I'd still rather a top 3 pick than pick 10 and 19 though tbf.

 

[Taylor]

Eight wins has finished fifth last for 2017 and 2018.
2015 - 4 wins
2016 - 7 wins
2017 - 6 wins
2018 - 2 wins

 

[Chism]

If you read that article it's all based on the premise that Carlton finish 14th or higher. Which in all likelihood isn't going to happen, so the article is kind of pointless.

Either is the Crows winning the flag.

On a normal most likely finish with the Crows finishing around 8th to 10th and us around the bottom 4 there is nothing in the trade points wise one way or the other with us even in that scenario happening will be coming out on top still.

That trade is heavily weighted in our favor and the Crows will need to win the flag next season for you guys to be even marginally ahead even if we finish 15th.

I am happy with that risk which gave us a 2nd 1st rd selection in a strong draft while next years is widely rated considerably weaker.

 

[Taylor]

I think you'd be lucky to find a club that would give it's top four draft pick up for a couple of later picks, no matter what the points are. They'd need to have the #1 or #2 pick player in their academy and then they would be trading their first for a pick next season.

Carlton need to lift sooner rather than later, the football department will get replaced if they don't start to show something soon. St Kilda did the same thing for the same reason, as did Fremantle.

Each club's supporters patience in a rebuild running out in 2019.

 

[Joey JoJo Jr Shabadoo]

Either is the Crows winning the flag.

On a normal most likely finish with the Crows finishing around 8th to 10th and us around the bottom 4 there is nothing in the trade points wise one way or the other with us even in that scenario happening will be coming out on top still.

That trade is heavily weighted in our favor and the Crows will need to win the flag next season for you guys to be even marginally ahead even if we finish 15th.

I am happy with that risk which gave us a 2nd 1st rd selection in a strong draft while next years is widely rated considerably weaker.

My point was that the article is completely redundant because it was based on different assumptions.

 

[Chism]

My point was that the article is completely redundant because it was based on different assumptions.

The scenario of where what team finishes where is fact not an assumption.

The article clearly states what is considered a win for both teams.

Crows need to win the Flag and we need to finish 15th or lower for you guys to be in front just on points wise let alone what Stocker will do which is largely unknown right now.

 

[Joey JoJo Jr Shabadoo]

The scenario of where what team finishes where is fact not an assumption.

The article clearly states what is considered a win for both teams.

Crows need to win the Flag and we need to finish 15th or lower for you guys to be in front just on points wise let alone what Stocker will do which is largely unknown right now.

The scenario of where each team finishes next year is pure assumption, how can that be a fact when it hasn't even happened? I don't think you've understood the article properly to be honest. It only looks at one hypothetical scenario where Carlton finishes 14th and we're premiers and you come out with more points. It then says if it were based on this years ladder positions we would come away with more points.

 

[Monkey King]

Yeah I guess that's a win on paper. I'd still rather a top 3 pick than pick 10 and 19 though tbf.

Yes. Just making sure the “on paper” part is properly understood.

Carlton don’t have pick 19. They have Liam Stocker. They had no interest in pick 19, they had an interest in securing what they deemed to be a top 10 player of the draft. This is where live trading is going to challenge those with a more static view of draft pick value, which I think is a great outcome. I didn’t expect it to be as dynamic as this trade has proven to be.

 

[Faz 2000]

It really doesn't matter very much once the picks turn into players. There was plenty of talk about whether the Blues would turn pick 1 into two other good draft picks, instead they've split next year's first into two.

We clearly liked Stocker, so we will see what he can do.

Whilst, yes, it's highly likely next year's picks will be a long way apart, both Adelaide and Carlton are locked on no wins for 2019. Could go a lot of ways. And even scoring it in retrospect doesn't matter very much. Picks ARE overrated.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Either is the Crows winning the flag.

On a normal most likely finish with the Crows finishing around 8th to 10th and us around the bottom 4 there is nothing in the trade points wise one way or the other with us even in that scenario happening will be coming out on top still.

That trade is heavily weighted in our favor and the Crows will need to win the flag next season for you guys to be even marginally ahead even if we finish 15th.

I am happy with that risk which gave us a 2nd 1st rd selection in a strong draft while next years is widely rated considerably weaker.

Delusional. We will get a top 3 pick.

 

[King Elvis]

Points don’t mean shit.

 

[Monkey King]

Delusional. We will get a top 3 pick.

This notion is the very carrot Carlton dangled your faces, so it’s no surprise that you and many others salivate at the thought of it. However, the only delusion is of course believing all this is fait accompli.

 

[Monkey King]

Points don’t mean shit.

Neither do picks. The only thing that matters is players. You could get pick one and draft Jack Watts.

 

[Shaz2012]

This genuinely is a win-win trade. It’s a take off the training wheels, throw them in the deep end kind of move that this playing group has needed for years.

SOS may get bagged for this if things don’t go Carlton’s way, but the cost will end up being the difference between two 18 year old kids rated top 20 in their age and an 18 year old kid rated top 5 in his age. The difference is just - who gives a shit. The chances they miss the next Dustin Martin or Nat Fyfe are just infinitesimally small.

I am not a fan of SOS, his GWS reject fixation in particular. But in terms of this trade, I take my hat off to him. It’s just what Carlton need and the worst case scenario is just nothing in the grand scheme of things. Well done to both clubs here. Play on.

 

[footyfan1978]

Points don’t mean shit.

They do when got a father-son prospect that highly rated or a highly rated academy player. But rest of time fairly meaningless in grand scheme of things.

 

[Freddy Bassett]

Neither do picks. The only thing that matters is players. You could get pick one and draft Jack Watts.

For a club that’s highest ever pick was 7, and yes we stuffed that pick up a decade ago, please excuse us for being very excited at the prospect of receiving your first round pick which over the years has been Number 1 frequently.

 

[blitzer]

Its way better for other clubs if Adelaide end up losing this trade. I'd love for Carlton to get another spoon and lose the number 1 pick because it would be hilarious but the risk of the AFL taking pity on them and giving them a priority pick is too high. Its probably a hidden form of hedging for this trade. At the very least I reckon the AFL would cough up a start of second rounder priority pick if Carlton won the spoon.

 

[Crow till I die]

The scenario of where each team finishes next year is pure assumption, how can that be a fact when it hasn't even happened? I don't think you've understood the article properly to be honest. It only looks at one hypothetical scenario where Carlton finishes 14th and we're premiers and you come out with more points. It then says if it were based on this years ladder positions we would come away with more points.

I cant believe the importance placed on points. If carlton finish 16th we get pick 3 and that is all that matters to us. If we finish 6th they get pick 13 and they got stocker...good luck to them heck even if we finish 9th which i think unlikely they get pick 9..i am happy to take the top 3 pick...even top 5 pick

 

[Vamos Juddamente]

This genuinely is a win-win trade. It’s a take off the training wheels, throw them in the deep end kind of move that this playing group has needed for years.

SOS may get bagged for this if things don’t go Carlton’s way, but the cost will end up being the difference between two 18 year old kids rated top 20 in their age and an 18 year old kid rated top 5 in his age. The difference is just - who gives a shit. The chances they miss the next Dustin Martin or Nat Fyfe are just infinitesimally small.

I am not a fan of SOS, his GWS reject fixation in particular. But in terms of this trade, I take my hat off to him. It’s just what Carlton need and the worst case scenario is just nothing in the grand scheme of things. Well done to both clubs here. Play on.

Well done you totally get it. This is a great trade for Adelaide because they will get a very high pick.

The Carlton playing group though are sitting back realising the recruiters, list managers, senior coaches and board all had to tick off this trade. It could not be a clearer message that you are totally out of excuses. Bolton in particular knows if Carlton don't improve he is gone at the end of the year so he would love this deal.

I think we will improve dramatically and win around 7 games but this still gives Adelaide a top 5 pick which makes it a clear win-win.

 

[CrowInFiji]

Blues fans can be in denial as much as they want but its quite unlikely Carlton just magically shoot up the ladder 6 or 7 places after being awful.

But Adelaide have a soft as butter draw next year, the majority of a side that played in the GF in 2017 and hopefully less injuries and no camp distractions.

Taking into account the draw and lists it is FAR more likely that Adelaide get back into the top 8 and top 4 than it is that Carlton get out of the bottom 4.

Name the teams you can finish above?

GCS

....and that's about it. You'llneed to find some othee club that is already shit andfinds a way to implode Carlton style to have any chance of 16th.

You didnt just suddenly fix your woes by trading in a couple of role players and draftinga couple of kids.

It takes years to get everyone going.