2019 planning

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Elroy67 said:
Well, thank you for that insight. Would you like a list of players that over the course of the next 10 days may not play round 1. I think it is about 800 odd players long.....
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Was implying he doesn't have the best JS which you'd definitely want if you're forking out over 300k for a rookie. Anyway it seems like you've already made your mind up and don't want to listen to anyone elses opinion so no point discussing it
 

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FlowersByIrene said:
So taking into account a weighted average analysis (including normalised JLT scores and various broken down 2018 averages) my spreadsheet has spat out the following "Rolling Best 22" to compete with the Roy-actionary 22 - by the way you will not be seeing Rocky in this 22 I can tell you that.

DEFENCE: Laird, Lloyd, Whitfield, Crisp, Hurn, Shaw - Fringe, Sicily, Williams, Smith

MIDFIELD: Macrae, Coniglio, Brayshaw, Oliver, Treloar, M. Crouch, Sidebottom, Cripps, Selwood - Fringe, Beams, Yeo, Gibbs

RUCK: Grundy, Gawn - Fringe, Martin, Goldstein

FORWARD: Dangerfield, Menegola, Westhoff, Dunkley, Heeney, Smith - Fringe, Boak, Billings, Robinson

I think the most important thing in the Pre-season is to ensure you have any many "best 22" as possible. In that vein, my side currently has:

DEF: 2 B22, 2 Fringe
MID: 3 B22
RUC: 1 B22
FWD: 3 B22

Totalling, 9 potential keepers out of a total 22, close to half the side. I'm not unhappy with that. Obviously I could very easily trun my three mid priced midfielders into a premium and rookies and probably grab another MB22 and FB22 but the value is hard to pass up and with rookies this season, probably necessary.
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Witho not even fringe in defence?
 
bl4ke said:
Was implying he doesn't have the best JS which you'd definitely want if you're forking out over 300k for a rookie. Anyway it seems like you've already made your mind up and don't want to listen to anyone elses opinion so no point discussing it
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No. I have not made up my mind, hence my initial question. Call me crazy but I tend to only ask questions when I'm interested in other opinions.

I have played Fantasy before, and don't tend to pick players that are not selected for round 1. But your helpful comment about his JS will be taken into account when the teams are announced.
 
Elroy67 said:
No. I have not made up my mind, hence my initial question. Call me crazy but I tend to only ask questions when I'm interested in other opinions.

I have played Fantasy before, and don't tend to pick players that are not selected for round 1. But your helpful comment about his JS will be taken into account when the teams are announced.
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You're welcome
 
bl4ke said:
Witho not even fringe in defence?
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He's literally the next cab off the rank, it's making me second guess selecting him. He was in my side all season and Crisp has currently replaced him off the back of this analysis.

By way of reference, my spreadsheet currently has Witho's predicted average at 86.3 - which is taking into account a roughly 84 'normalised' average over the JLT, an 88 point average last season and an 87 point project average based off of a 2018 weighted average analysis.

In comparison, Jack Crisp's projected average is 104 with an 88 2018 average, roughly a 130 JLT 'normalised' average and an 87 point projected average based off of a 2018 weighted average analysis.

Obviously Crisps' huge JLT scores give that projected average a real burst, but it's hard to ignore those performances.
 
FlowersByIrene said:
So taking into account a weighted average analysis (including normalised JLT scores and various broken down 2018 averages) my spreadsheet has spat out the following "Rolling Best 22" to compete with the Roy-actionary 22 - by the way you will not be seeing Rocky in this 22 I can tell you that.

DEFENCE: Laird, Lloyd, Whitfield, Crisp, Hurn, Shaw - Fringe, Sicily, Williams, Smith

MIDFIELD: Macrae, Coniglio, Brayshaw, Oliver, Treloar, M. Crouch, Sidebottom, Cripps, Selwood - Fringe, Beams, Yeo, Gibbs

RUCK: Grundy, Gawn - Fringe, Martin, Goldstein

FORWARD: Dangerfield, Menegola, Westhoff, Dunkley, Heeney, Smith - Fringe, Boak, Billings, Robinson

I think the most important thing in the Pre-season is to ensure you have any many "best 22" as possible. In that vein, my side currently has:

DEF: 2 B22, 2 Fringe
MID: 3 B22
RUC: 1 B22
FWD: 3 B22

Totalling, 9 potential keepers out of a total 22, close to half the side. I'm not unhappy with that. Obviously I could very easily trun my three mid priced midfielders into a premium and rookies and probably grab another MB22 and FB22 but the value is hard to pass up and with rookies this season, probably necessary.
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Interesting. Great analysis mate. Think a lot of people can get sucked into chasing value with every one of their picks and not looking at the bigger picture sometimes.

Also interesting to note you're going in with a midpriced ruck. Kruez?
 
JDWCE said:
Interesting. Great analysis mate. Think a lot of people can get sucked into chasing value with every one of their picks and not looking at the bigger picture sometimes.

Also interesting to note you're going in with a midpriced ruck. Kruez?
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My apologies, good pick up, I am actually going Goldy so it should be Best22 R1 and Fringe22 R2
 

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FlowersByIrene said:
Obviously Crisps' huge JLT scores give that projected average a real burst, but it's hard to ignore those performances.
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I promise I'm not trying to be difficult, and I appreciate the work you put into your opinions.

Why do you not consider Rocky (to be clear, i'm not convinced either and don't have him in my side)?

He did have a 60 from 60% game time and a Darts score in his last effort. It is a little hard to ignore.
 
Elroy67 said:
I promise I'm not trying to be difficult, and I appreciate the work you put into your opinions.

Why do you not consider Rocky (to be clear, i'm not convinced either and don't have him in my side)?

He did have a 60 from 60% game time and a Darts score in his last effort. It is a little hard to ignore.
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Rockliff currenlty projected for a 91 point average, should increase in price by about $60,000 over the early rounds. Scored 71 and 145 on a 'normalised' basis across the JLT. Averaged 83 last season and was given an 86 point projected average prior to the start of the season absed on a weighted analysis of previous stats (including 2017 Avg, 2018 Avg, 2nd Half Avg, Last 5 Average and Outlier Average (minus lowest score).)
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Rockliff currenlty projected for a 91 point average, should increase in price by about $60,000 over the early rounds. Scored 71 and 145 on a 'normalised' basis across the JLT. Averaged 83 last season and was given an 86 point projected average prior to the start of the season absed on a weighted analysis of previous stats (including 2017 Avg, 2018 Avg, 2nd Half Avg, Last 5 Average and Outlier Average (minus lowest score).)
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Averages are only as good as the conditions that support them. He's in his second year with the club (knows the system better), he's had a full pre-season, dropped a few kgs apparently, and seems to have the tank to play the full mid role that they're paying him 750K a year for. Think it was only injury last season that forced him into the forward line.

I'll leave you with this though: listened to The Traders podcast last night and apparently Roy called Rocky after his 178 and was greeted with an 'oink oink' when he answered the phone. He knows he pigged out, which means he enjoyed it and has got his swag back. When a player does that, it's enough to know that they're in a better place
 
Shadow89 said:
Averages are only as good as the conditions that support them. He's in his second year with the club (knows the system better), he's had a full pre-season, dropped a few kgs apparently, and seems to have the tank to play the full mid role that they're paying him 750K a year for. Think it was only injury last season that forced him into the forward line.

I'll leave you with this though: listened to The Traders podcast last night and apparently Roy called Rocky after his 178 and was greeted with an 'oink oink' when he answered the phone. He knows he pigged out, which means he enjoyed it and has got his swag back. When a player does that, it's enough to know that they're in a better place
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Yep I listened to the Pod too, of course the analysis I have done is only as good as the data that is in it. 91 is what it is spitting out now and it will continue to change as he goes along.

Currently it's not good enough for me and I find it hard to trust him after last season.

Others are welcome to dive in though
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Rockliff currenlty projected for a 91 point average, should increase in price by about $60,000 over the early rounds. Scored 71 and 145 on a 'normalised' basis across the JLT. Averaged 83 last season and was given an 86 point projected average prior to the start of the season absed on a weighted analysis of previous stats (including 2017 Avg, 2018 Avg, 2nd Half Avg, Last 5 Average and Outlier Average (minus lowest score).)
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Quite like the analysis. Probably doesn't work as well for those guys you expect to increase their average (because stats can't really take into account all the extenuating factors that goes into a player's performance) but I think it does give a good reality check on the 'safer' players that we should try to have at least a few. I do agree people get caught up on searching for value too often (often just off the back of JLT performances) and once we hit the season and a few of those guys inevitably falter the strategy starts to fall apart.

Not sure I'd have Hurn/Shaw/Crisp ahead of Witho though considering if you exclude the 15 in round 23 he outscored em all and presumably has much greater potential for growth considering he's younger and improving. Didn't have a stand-out JLT but didn't do anything to disappoint so I'd argue picking Shaw/Hurn/Crisp over him is mostly just chasing JLT scores.
 
Rion said:
Quite like the analysis. Probably doesn't work as well for those guys you expect to increase their average (because stats can't really take into account all the extenuating factors that goes into a player's performance) but I think it does give a good reality check on the 'safer' players that we should try to have at least a few. I do agree people get caught up on searching for value too often (often just off the back of JLT performances) and once we hit the season and a few of those guys inevitably falter the strategy starts to fall apart.

Not sure I'd have Hurn/Shaw/Crisp ahead of Witho though considering if you exclude the 15 in round 23 he outscored em all and presumably has much greater potential for growth considering he's younger and improving. Didn't have a stand-out JLT but didn't do anything to disappoint so I'd argue picking Shaw/Hurn/Crisp over him is mostly just chasing JLT scores.
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Few things to keep in mind with Hurn/Shaw/Crisp ahead of Witho may be the kick in rule? Rich seems to be taking Lions kick ins whereas Hurn/Shaw have been taking kick ins (unsure on Crisp to be honest). Not sure if Flowers weights that in his calcs though so I could just be spinning nonsense
 
FlowersByIrene said:
So taking into account a weighted average analysis (including normalised JLT scores and various broken down 2018 averages) my spreadsheet has spat out the following "Rolling Best 22" to compete with the Roy-actionary 22 - by the way you will not be seeing Rocky in this 22 I can tell you that.

DEFENCE: Laird, Lloyd, Whitfield, Crisp, Hurn, Shaw - Fringe, Sicily, Williams, Smith

MIDFIELD: Macrae, Coniglio, Brayshaw, Oliver, Treloar, M. Crouch, Sidebottom, Cripps, Selwood - Fringe, Beams, Yeo, Gibbs

RUCK: Grundy, Gawn - Fringe, Martin, Goldstein

FORWARD: Dangerfield, Menegola, Westhoff, Dunkley, Heeney, Smith - Fringe, Boak, Billings, Robinson

I think the most important thing in the Pre-season is to ensure you have any many "best 22" as possible. In that vein, my side currently has:

DEF: 2 B22, 2 Fringe
MID: 3 B22
RUC: 1 B22, 1 Fringe
FWD: 3 B22

Totalling, 10 potential keepers out of a total 22, close to half the side. I'm not unhappy with that. Obviously I could very easily trun my three mid priced midfielders into a premium and rookies and probably grab another MB22 and FB22 but the value is hard to pass up and with rookies this season, probably necessary.
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Tim Kelly? What do you have him at?
 

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