2019 planning

[TheRednWhite]

Newnes vs Worpel is doing my head in. Feel like I have to back in Newnes as the safer pick, he was average last year but the 3 years prior he was around that 85-90 mark. Worpel I feel has a better role but it would still be a big ask for him to reach a 95 avg. Newnes 2% ownership vs Worpel 20% is interesting, looks like people are going for the breakout contender rather than the more proven performer

 

[Rendaw]

Kelly vs Boak is something I just cannot figure out.. my projections say Boak but my head says Kelly

Kelly for me. He has a fantasy game with more mid time this year. Boak is over 30 so will only get back to his 2013/14 peak at best

 

[TheRednWhite]

Kelly vs Boak is something I just cannot figure out.. my projections say Boak but my head says Kelly

I have both currently but if I had to pick one it would be Boak by a nose. Kelly finished last year really well and it's hard to see him dropping off this year but I feel Boak is slightly better value. I was surprised at Boak's average last year, he did well considering his role. If this year he gets more midfield time, I think he can even push a 105 avg

 

[Jozzy]

Kelly vs Boak is something I just cannot figure out.. my projections say Boak but my head says Kelly

I don't normally touch second year players but I just love the upside of Kelly.

I think Boak is at he ceiling, he'll be a consistent player but I just don't think he'll ever be a top six defender. I think Kelly does have that potential to become a top six forward.

 

[happy_eagle]

After the Traders talked about team structure, interested to see what everyone else's team structures are:

Rookies- $0-$270K
Mid Pricers $270K-600K
Premiums- $600K +

My on ground team structure is:

Def: 1,2,3.
Mid: 4,2,2.
Ruck: 2 (Goldy, Gawn)
Fwd: 3,1,2.

Def: 3-1-2
Mid: 4-1-3
Ruc: 2-0-0
Fwd: 3-1-2
Old school Guns and Rookies

Haven't changed this structure since the first JLT game. Lets hope I don't panic on Thursday and change

 

[Benjo_]

Newnes vs Worpel is doing my head in. Feel like I have to back in Newnes as the safer pick, he was average last year but the 3 years prior he was around that 85-90 mark. Worpel I feel has a better role but it would still be a big ask for him to reach a 95 avg. Newnes 2% ownership vs Worpel 20% is interesting, looks like people are going for the breakout contender rather than the more proven performer

Worpel is a lock for me. Averaged 83 returning from the VFL side from his last 6 games. This is without a full pre season and Titch out, leaving a gaping hole in their midfield. His JLT scores off limited TOG are very promising as well.

Newnes is an interesting one for me. Been set on Snags Higgins for awhile now but Newnes has crept right up to take his spot. Looks like he's playing wing/mid as opposed to forward last year (surely Steven and Acres out helps this). Once again very solid JLT scores. His past averages however are very intriguing, having averaged 88, 88, 85 and 81 before last year's stinker. If he can get back to this form then he'll be a very solid pick.

I still think I prefer Worpel as I can see him comfortably going low 80s minimum, whereas Newnes could be anywhere from 75-90 IMO.

 

[samFFC]

After the Traders talked about team structure, interested to see what everyone else's team structures are:

Rookies- $0-$270K
Mid Pricers $270K-600K
Premiums- $600K +

My on ground team structure is:

Def: 1,2,3.
Mid: 4,2,2.
Ruck: 2 (Goldy, Gawn)
Fwd: 3,1,2.

For me currently:

Def: 2 premo, 2 midpricers , 2 rookies
Mid: 3, 3, 2
Ruc: 2
Fwd: 3, 1, 2

Similar

 

[samFFC]

Bewley or Bailey Scott?

Butters or Bailey Smith?

 

[Elroy67]

After the Traders talked about team structure, interested to see what everyone else's team structures are:

My on ground team structure is:

Def: 1,3,2.
Mid: 5,1,2.
Ruck: 1,1,0 (No Grundy or Gawn)
Fwd: 3,1,2.

 

[adonski]

D: 2,2,2
M: 4,2,2
R: 1,1
F: 3,1,2

 

[Ohh Ok]

After the Traders talked about team structure, interested to see what everyone else's team structures are:

Rookies- $0-$270K
Mid Pricers $270K-600K
Premiums- $600K +

My on ground team structure is:

Def: 1,2,3.
Mid: 4,2,2.
Ruck: 2 (Goldy, Gawn)
Fwd: 3,1,2.

DEF: 1, 3, 2
MID: 5, 2, 1
RUCK: 1, 1
FWD: 3, 1, 2

 

[PAFC27]

I don't normally touch second year players but I just love the upside of Kelly.

I think Boak is at he ceiling, he'll be a consistent player but I just don't think he'll ever be a top six defender. I think Kelly does have that potential to become a top six forward.

Can't argue with this. I don't think Boak will be a top 6 defender either

 

[PAFC27]

Is Big O injured? Or out of favour?

 

[MinistryOfMajak]

After the Traders talked about team structure, interested to see what everyone else's team structures are:

Rookies- $0-$270K
Mid Pricers $270K-600K
Premiums- $600K +

My on ground team structure is:

Def: 1,2,3.
Mid: 4,2,2.
Ruck: 2 (Goldy, Gawn)
Fwd: 3,1,2.

DEF: 2, 2, 2
MID: 4,2,2
RUC: 2
FWD: 3,1,2


Sent from my SM-G955F using Tapatalk

 

[Jozzy]

Can't argue with this. I don't think Boak will be a top 6 defender either

Our top six listed forwards all averaged 95ppg or more last year.

Across Boak’s entire 12 year career he’s only gone over that three times (100 in 2013, 95 is 2014 & 96 in 2015). That’s also when he was playing as his teams best midfielder, to ask him to get back to the form several years ago is a massive ask.

I’d have no concerns that he’ll still score 85-90 but that doesn’t really improve his average, value or get him any closer to the top six. I’d be all over him for draft league if he’s available and if you want a safe option just to have for the meantime he’d be a good option but I don’t think he’s anything more than “good”.

Everyone has different aspirations though, if you’re wanting a safe team to win your league then go got it but if you want yo be up there in the rankings I think you’ve always got to aim for the top players in in each position.

 

[Rion]

Our top six listed forwards all averaged 95ppg or more last year.

Across Boak’s entire 12 year career he’s only gone over that three times (100 in 2013, 95 is 2014 & 96 in 2015). That’s also when he was playing as his teams best midfielder, to ask him to get back to the form several years ago is a massive ask.

I’d have no concerns that he’ll still score 85-90 but that doesn’t really improve his average, value or get him any closer to the top six. I’d be all over him for draft league if he’s available and if you want a safe option just to have for the meantime he’d be a good option but I don’t think he’s anything more than “good”.

Everyone has different aspirations though, if you’re wanting a safe team to win your league then go got it but if you want yo be up there in the rankings I think you’ve always got to aim for the top players in in each position.

I mean he scored 87 last year playing a ton of forward time so considering he's apparently moved full-time in the midfield I can't see him not improving his average. Pretty safe 95ish for mine. I think midfield fantasy scoring has increased dramatically since 13/14 as well so those stats might be a bit outdated.

In saying that he's a bit out of left-field and Port are Port so I can see why some wouldn't want him.

 

[guero]

I mean he scored 87 last year playing a ton of forward time so considering he's apparently moved full-time in the midfield I can't see him not improving his average. Pretty safe 95ish for mine. I think midfield fantasy scoring has increased dramatically since 13/14 as well so those stats might be a bit outdated.

In saying that he's a bit out of left-field and Port are Port so I can see why some wouldn't want him.

Yeah but will he be a top 6 defender?

 

[replicant]

I will post my final statistical projections based on the information we have to date. The data used to pump out these projections take into account 2018 Averages, 2017 Averages, a variety of 2018 sub-set averages such as 1st Half, 2nd Half, Last 5 and Outlier, 2019 JLT Form "normalised" for historical time on ground statistics as well as AFL Fantasy "Elite" projections for the first three rounds (which includes factors such as historical averages against teams and at certain grounds) - all given different weighting based on personal preference (i.e weighting recent performance higher than past performance) etc.

The utility in doing so is so that this may be used as a public comparison point where I can come back and we can debate the value of this type of analysis with reference to how the players - actually - did. But anyway, on to my top players

Defence: Rory Larid (107) Jake Lloyd (106) Jack Crisp (104) Lachie Whitfield (99) James Sicily (94) Heath Shaw (94) - Zac Williams (92) Shannon Hurn (90) Brodie Smith (90)

Midfield: Angus Brayshaw (121) Stephen Coniglio (121) Jack Macrae (117) Adam Treloar (112) Clayton Oliver (112) Matt Crouch (110) Steel Sidebottom (109) Dayne Beams (108) - Patrick Cripps (107) Bryce Gibs (107) Elliot Yeo (106) Joel Selwood (106)

Ruck: Brodie Grundy (110) Max Gawn (106) - Stef Martin (104) Todd Goldstein (101)

Forward: Patrick Dangerfield (113) Sam Menegola (102) Josh Dunkley (100) Justin Westhoff (96) Travis Boak (95) Isaac Heeney (94) - Devon Smith (94) Jack Billings (92) Mitch Robinson (90)

I will note that the above analysis is NOT GOOD at projecting breakouts. The weighted averages I have used are weighted conservatiely to attempt to get the most uniform results for consistency sake (i.e picking a solid premium who should be top tier). it is almos timpossible to use statistics to project a breakout.

For example, look at Dom Sheed. You would think when picking a breakout player that you would probably exclusively look to the second half, last 5 and JLT scores. On that metric, someone like a Dom Sheed would project for roughly a 96.3 average. However, using my total weighted average analysis, he is still projected for a 94.85 average, meaning even ignoring other statistical inputs like his past two season averages (74 and 78) he barely gets a bump in his projection.

Another example is James Worpel - to take his "break out stats" he would be project to average 83.6. That's slightly higher than the 77.57 average projected by the overall analysis but not astrononmically higher.

Effectively, when picking breakout players, it is a lot more about gut.

This post has decided me to keep the guns (Brayshaw, Selwood, Macrae, Treloar, Coniglio, Walsh, rookie) in the midfield. While i'm aware it doesn't predict breakouts, i estimate i currently have 11 keepers with up to 14 if Brodie Smith, Zac Williams and/or Brad Crouch work out. In previous seasons i've always been tempted by midpricers, so i'm going a different way this season. I'll use any cash i generate to build a better forward line, once i know who the good forwards are this year.

 

[VSTone]

I'm going against the grain here by the looks.
Def: 0, 4, 2
Mid: 4, 4, 0
Ruc: 2, 0
Fwd: 1, 3, 2
at 697.1 combined ownership %

 

[Thetrader15]

I'm going against the grain here by the looks.
Def: 0, 4, 2
Mid: 4, 4, 0
Ruc: 2, 0
Fwd: 1, 3, 2
at 697.1 combined ownership %

No Sam Walsh (or does he just go above the rookie bracket)?

 

[VSTone]

No Sam Walsh (or does he just go above the rookie bracket)?

M9 (E).

 

[Ohh Ok]

I'm going against the grain here by the looks.
Def: 0, 4, 2
Mid: 4, 4, 0
Ruc: 2, 0
Fwd: 1, 3, 2
at 697.1 combined ownership %

Am at 557.9 % ownership (on field only) could be a bad thing though

 

[atlas1]

This is one structure that I'm looking at right now, due to me not rating the defensive or forward rookies.

Def: 3-3-0 (Lloyd, Crisp, Shaw, Savage, B.Smith, Z.Williams) - might not have to touch this line for a while. Hore and Joyce on the bench.
Mid: 2-2-4 (Macrae, Cogs, B.Crouch, Libba, Setterfield, Constable, Atkins, Drew) - Gibbons and Hind on the bench. I feel most confident about the mid rooks.
Ruck: 2-0 (Goldy, Gawn) - Archie and Fort on the bench.
Fwd: 3-2-1 (Danger, Boak, Kelly, Newnes, McCarthy, Balta) - Parker and Petruccelle on the bench. McCarthy could make a quick buck and would be an early upgrade.

 

[Butterz]

Cripps/Treloar + Goldy VS Rocky + Gawn and some cash?

Can't really do much with the cash, but could leave it in the kitty for early trading.

 

[JADED]

Cripps/Treloar + Goldy VS Rocky + Gawn and some cash?

Be good to have Cripps for Thursday.
He went 130 round 1 last year.