2019 Trade thread

[BangyBangy]

Don’t forget to gamblediddly 'responsibly diddely' childerinos!

Edited for responsibility

Diddely

 

[BangyBangy]

Lol. Seriously Sydney, if the Bombres won't accept pick 5 & a second rounder, just hold tight for a year.

AFL trade whispers: Dons ask Swans for several stars - but Daniher delay puts four-way trade on hold

Trade Whispers: Dons ask Swans for stars - but Daniher delay holds up four-way trade

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Nunez]

But the Q is how high and what are they willing to give up, damn you Nunez!

Sorrryyy

 

[Dodongo]

Dodongo thinks we should latch onto that Sydney/Essendon saga. Essendon want a player. We give Cutler. 5 and Cutler will do it. We get 9 they get for Papley and give Sydney 16. Keep 21. Something like that could work. Hell, Sydney want Taylor. Dodongo is sure we are going to get involved somehow in one complicated 3 way trade. It's pointing that way with both teams wanting a player from us. Maybe we can pull in 5 and 9 somehow.

 

[Berrygood]

Dodongo really doesn't understand why people make a thing of a pick being later. Dodongo sees it all the time.

If you look at it normally. Lets say we have pick 16 and it ends up being pick 20, it is still effectively pick 16 because the chances of picking up someones academy kid or father son is next to none.

For example. This is something Dodongo has made.

Lets say we had pick 16 and Adelaide had pick 12. In a normal draft, player A, player B, player C and player D will be available that we want - one of them will be there and its not an academy pick or father son.

Adelaide bid on a father son, they still have player A, B, C, D there. They take player D. Another team bids and its matched then they take Player B. Our pick is 2 away and we still have Player A and C that we will get. Even if a team doesnt match and the academy/fs, the same players will be there.

Draft is only compromised and pick being pushed back is only a big deal if the team at that pick wanted an academy/fs selection and who would? Apart from Dunkley, what hasn't been matched in the first or second round.

Dodongo's tl;dr part.

Unless your targeted list is someones academy or fs selection, your pick is still the same pick regardless of how far it is pushed back.

And i guess as well that if another team has to match a bid for their academy/fs player and they have to bundle some later picks to do it, our later picks move up the order and into a better position. Is that right? Is that a win?

 

[lionshine]

Dodongo thinks we should latch onto that Sydney/Essendon saga. Essendon want a player. We give Cutler. 5 and Cutler will do it. We get 9 they get for Papley and give Sydney 16. Keep 21. Something like that could work. Hell, Sydney want Taylor. Dodongo is sure we are going to get involved somehow in one complicated 3 way trade. It's pointing that way with both teams wanting a player from us. Maybe we can pull in 5 and 9 somehow.

You could be right actually. Let's say hypothetically the Swans traded Papley for pick 9.

Essendon Gain: Picks 9, 16 Tom Cutler.
Essendon Lose: Joe Daniher.

Sydney Gain: Joe Daniher, Lewis Taylor pick 21.
Sydney Lose: Picks 5, 9.

Brisbane Gain: Pick 5
Brisbane Lose: Tom Cutler, Lewis Taylor, picks 16, 21.

 

[theteamtobeat]

You could be right actually. Let's say hypothetically the Swans traded Papley for pick 9.

Essendon Gain: Picks 9, 16 Tom Cutler.
Essendon Lose: Joe Daniher.

Sydney Gain: Joe Daniher, Lewis Taylor pick 21.
Sydney Lose: Picks 5, 9.

Brisbane Gain: Pick 5
Brisbane Lose: Tom Cutler, Lewis Taylor, picks 16, 21.

Pick 5 would be enough to get Rory Larid .

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

As 34 is prob going to GC for Ah Chee, we would need something back.

 

[irish]

Archie smith's name being thrown around today !

 

[Mighty Lions]

Archie smith's name being thrown around today !

Swans?

 

[Fagenslions36]

Can’t see us throwing smith out : Martin goes down that’s McInerney to muster load for whole season

 

[Fagenslions36]

Suppose ballandeen could play ruck forward

 

[Fagenslions36]

Pick 5 would be enough to get Rory Larid .

Think I’d rather take Lachlan ash at 5

 

[Dalions]

Think I’d rather take Lachlan ash at 5

He would want to be bloody good?
In that deal, to lose 16,21, Lewy Taylor and Tom Cutler for an unknown at AFL level Lachlan Ash?

 

[Dodongo]

Can’t see us throwing smith out : Martin goes down that’s McInerney to muster load for whole season

Dodongo can see Smith going if we have lined up another ruck like Pittonet. Pittonet would be a massive upgrade. Hell, any ruck in the 23-26 age bracket will be better than Smith. If a club wants him, we sell and bring someone else in. Smith will never be a top ruckman.

 

[Clarkythelion]

Nick Dal Santo did some number crunching during the week, it's not his opinion he just sorted records. He looked at picks from the top 40 in each draft and how many from that year went on to have an outstanding career ( he meant, and I didn't quite get all the things they used) but made All Australian and had played most games ......

From 2008 there was 22 players who had substantial careers
2009 - 19
2010 - 15
2011 - 19
2012 - 10
2013 - 18
2014 - 15
2015 - 21
2016 - 19

Then he cut it further of those whom were pick 16 or later
2008 - 5
2009 - 4
2010 - 5
2011 - 4
2012 - 2
Missed a few he read too quick
2016 - 0

The point he was making in trading is that there are first round picks then there are first round picks and clubs can over value picks. If your not in the top of the draft it falls away quickly and clubs play hard ball to get a pick in the top 10. He also made the point that after pick 35 the odds are 1 in 100 of getting that rough diamond.

 

[Dalions]

Talking a pick in the 60’s for Lewy Taylor?
I would be offering him another contract rather than give him up for that.

 

[Berrygood]

Id think 16 and next years first would be enough to get laird, maybe throw in a pick in the 50s or next yrs third or maybe even hinge if they played hard ball. We gave 12 for charlie, also with one year left on his contract. Laird has a deeper resume and been an A grader for a while, worth the extra.

34 is certainly reasonable for ah chee, if we need to throw in next yrs 4th ok. Just get it done.

That leaves us with 21 and those picks in the 50s + what we can get in the likely trades for cutler, n robbo and taylor. Hopefully jag mid second to early third round picks for them. We could then bundle up any combination of picks to hopefully move up. If we could wrangle a late first round, a mid to late 2nd rnd and a few later picks for academy lads, i think we have ended up in a good place.

With laird, cey, ah chee and birch in and still a handy shot in the draft, its a very good result for the club. Certainly a stronger best 22 and depth, capable of holding our current spot on the table if not improving. Sure we go into next yr without a 1st n 4th round draft picks but we never know how 2020 trade period will play out. We may only need a ruckman and a good tall fwd to comlete the team.

 

[BangyBangy]

Talking a pick in the 60’s for Lewy Taylor?
I would be offering him another contract rather than give him up for that.

Our players aren't worth diddly squat, we should be honoured another team is prepared to take them at all. Daniner is worth pick 5, 9 & a player too. You know how it works.

 

[John_Proctor]

Interestingly from a points perspective 16+21=5. So cutler and Taylor are given away but represent the value of those higher picks dal santo was talking about.

Some simpler variations on that theme.

Cutler and 55 for essendons 31. That pick increase is about 300 points or pick 45 which seems about right for cutler. We’d on trade 31 for ah chee as a slight compromise to Gold Coast instead of pick 34 we are currently offfering.

Taylor and 34 for Sydney’s 25. Again about a 300 point upgrade. Although swans likely need 25 to get Daniher so this seems less likely.

As I mentioned a few pages ago we need to do a lot of 2 for 1 trades or future pick trades to manage our list spots this year.

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

I would think Cutler, Taylor and Smith would all be value in getting other deals over the line, but very little in isolation.
EDIT: I doubt they would achieve much if anything of an upgrade in picks either.

 

[John_Proctor]

Surely the arrival of Birchall only happened because we 100% know that laird (And smith) are off the table? Why get Birchall (so early in trade period) if you think there is any chance of getting laird as an experienced running half back?

 

[Surly Boy]

Surely the arrival of Birchall only happened because we 100% know that laird (And smith) are off the table? Why get Birchall (so early in trade period) if you think there is any chance of getting laird as an experienced running half back?

This. Reckon there is very little chance of anything happening with Laird this time around. Noble has said it is basically Ah Chee and then we are done from a player perspective.

 

[SizeMatters]

Don't be surprised if we deal with the Cats this off season.

 

[snooplions]

Talk on the Sydney board that Harry Cunningham is going to be traded to Brisbane.