Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[Crowman32]

We have to take a gun midfielder with pick one and that's why I would take Holland's. We haven't had a gun midfielder since Dangerfield.

Richmond probably wouldn't of won their premiership without dusty but did with out lynch and couldve without riewoldt.

 

[Max Cottaletta]

Agree tak

We have to take a gun midfielder with pick one and that's why I would take Holland's. We haven't had a gun midfielder since Dangerfield.

Richmond probably wouldn't of won their premiership without dusty but did with out lynch and couldve without riewoldt.

agree take Hollands 1 and do whatever is needed to get up to tilthorpe range

 

[slice]

Be great if Hawthorn want Treloar, they might be willing to slide 4 to 9 and use that to trade for him.

 

[Betts are off]

What's the Scuttlebutt on Braeden Campbell? Anyone heard if there is any interest on bidding on him from us? Seems like the kind of player that Hamish would love to bid on IMO.

 

[Disco Fox]

Yes they do .....probably McDonald moreso as the pure Key Forward

My preference is Hollands .....but I'll support whatever call we make, given Hamish and his team have an eye to not only the whole draft, and who will be available with our later picks ......but also next years Draft

Must admit, the thought of getting Hollands and one of the Talls had me salivating ......do we have the b....s to be aggressive as Port was to get Rozee .....doubt it, would be out of character

I agree the club will know which player to take, with input from Nicks. It's interesting to read the different opinions, but I lean a little to a KPF only because the good ones are rare, however the other school of thought is that Crows already have enough goal-kicking players as long as the ball gets down there enough. Proof of that was in those games at the end of the season when the mids got on top & Fogarty, McAdam etc kicked winning scores. But another factor is we need to replace Walker - do we have a true replacement on our list currently?

 

[arsene wenger1]

What's the Scuttlebutt on Braeden Campbell? Anyone heard if there is any interest on bidding on him from us? Seems like the kind of player that Hamish would love to bid on IMO.

If we do that would mean Sydney’s pick is up for grabs

 

[Spartacus_Aurelius]

Long, long time lurker here. The whole Crouch fiasco and frustration with the club finally got me into creating an account and getting involved.

I want Hollands at #1. He is exactly what we need and have been missing for a long time. High impact per possession mids who can hit scoreboard win flags.

Apart from JUH, there is no runaway #1 talent. The golden rule for high picks is always best available, but I feel this draft is going to be more strategic than ever.

IMO the perfect scenario is us to end up with two of Hollands and Tilthorpe. Without pick 2 - McDonald is out of the equation unless we take him first. I think there is a real chance we trade up on draft night if the cards fall right. I think the GC pick is gettable, but we should be moving hell and earth to get Hawthorn's pick.

Tilthorpe MIGHT slide. Hollands won't. Simple. This is why we need to take Hollands at 1. We won't get another chance.

I currently have it as follows
1) ADL- Hollands
2) WBD - JUH (NM Bid)
3) NM - McDonald
4) Sydney - Tilthorpe or DGB (Strong feeling they go key position as they have Campbell coming in as well)
5) Hawthorn - Tilthorpe, Phillips or DGB
6) GC - Phillips (the temptation to reunite him with Rowell and Anderson is strong)

DGB will shape the draft. He is the big domino to fall. If for whatever reason Tilly is still available at 5 or 6, i think we will bend over backwards to trade up.

 

[Mego Red]

For some reason 12 months ago we were desperate to keep our best midfielder while he was contracted and had currency.....

Was there any genuine interest in Crouch a year ago?

It went to GCS board, but they vetoed it, or were told to.

 

[Betts are off]

If we do that would mean Sydney’s pick is up for grabs

TBH its a fairly murky situation to get my head around. I'm trying to figure out what Sydney would want vs what they would desperately try to avoid. Realistically both of those scenario's seem to fall within a very narrow window, and is almost 100% reliant on whether or not we or North bid on Campbell.

You would assume what they want is to get a player before their Campbell NGA pick, so the threat of us picking him at 1 (or NM at 2) would be the thing they most want to avoid. But if they traded back to 9 then it dramatically increases the risk of them not getting a player before their pick (unless they trade back up again).

People talk a lot about us going after WB's pick, but for me leveraging Sydney over their NGA has the potential for the far greater payoff

 

[Thetrader15]

We have to take a gun midfielder with pick one and that's why I would take Holland's. We haven't had a gun midfielder since Dangerfield.

Richmond probably wouldn't of won their premiership without dusty but did with out lynch and couldve without riewoldt.

NOTE TO ALL...
it's "HOLLANDS, not "HOLLAND'S", unless you are talking about something that belongs to Ben HOLLAND

Ben Holland

Age

47

Ht

197cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.8

3star

K

6.3

2star

HB

4.5

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.6

2star

K

3.2

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.2

3star

 

[Mego Red]

TBH its a fairly murky situation to get my head around. I'm trying to figure out what Sydney would want vs what they would desperately try to avoid. Realistically both of those scenario's seem to fall within a very narrow window, and is almost 100% reliant on whether or not we or North bid on Campbell.

You would assume what they want is to get a player before their Campbell NGA pick, so the threat of us picking him at 1 (or NM at 2) would be the thing they most want to avoid. But if they traded back to 9 then it dramatically increases the risk of them not getting a player before their pick (unless they trade back up again).

People talk a lot about us going after WB's pick, but for me leveraging Sydney over their NGA has the potential for the far greater payoff

I presume they'll just trade that pick down to GWS, who'll overpay with their Williams compo and a Geelong pick they get for Cameron.

They'll get Campbell and a couple of later pieces, and still hold their first next year.

 

[Mego Red]

I wonder if we could get the GCS pick, by also helping them with a salary dump? That helped Port in 2018 get the Brisbane deal to happen.

I don't think Hawthorn trade.

Pick 6 seems gettable, especially if it ends up with WB. But it's outside the top tier.

 

[Betts are off]

I presume they'll just trade that pick down to GWS, who'll overpay with their Williams compo and a Geelong pick they get for Cameron.

They'll get Campbell and a couple of later pieces, and still hold their first next year.

It all comes down to how highly our team rates him though, cause you know we bid on players we rate (and something tells me Campbell would be firmly in that category).

If Sydney genuinely believes Campbell is a Ogilvie draft crush and a real risk of being bid on at #1 then trading down to GWS still means they are risking paying 2400 points for Campbell if that bid came in. So if my math checks out that would still eat through 90% of both the GWS compo and any traded pick they got from Geelong. Leaving them with pretty much nothing from that trade with their state rival club. Unless i'm missing something it seems like a pointless move under those circumstances.

Not saying I believe that would happen, just that Sydney's strategy must be ultra murky and completely at the mercy of us and North. I feel like its an opportunity that could be exploited.

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

With the talk of Dodoro only offering GWS a second rounder for Caldwell and then threatening they'll take him in the PSD.. I do wonder if somehow we can snag him with our 1st pick in the PSD if that does happen.

Now, I realise I'm overstating the capabilities of our list managers by making this happen but if they COULD make it happen that would be huge.

 

[Crow till I die]

With the talk of Dodoro only offering GWS a second rounder for Caldwell and then threatening they'll take him in the PSD.. I do wonder if somehow we can snag him with our 1st pick in the PSD if that does happen.

Now, I realise I'm overstating the capabilities of our list managers by making this happen but if they COULD make it happen that would be huge.

now the way to maybe do that would be to come out and say we are NOT going to take him if Essendon choose that path..then we pick him up when it happens

 

[Spartacus_Aurelius]

I wonder if we could get the GCS pick, by also helping them with a salary dump? That helped Port in 2018 get the Brisbane deal to happen.

I don't think Hawthorn trade.

Pick 6 seems gettable, especially if it ends up with WB. But it's outside the top tier.

I think the top tier goes to 6 deep easily. Everyone is sleeping on Phillips.
JUH, Hollands, McDonald, Tilthorpe, DGB & Phillips
Bruhn is no slouch either.

I dont think it is worth us potentially overpaying to trade up to 6 UNLESS Tilthorpe slides.

 

[Mego Red]

It all comes down to how highly our team rates him though, cause you know we bid on players we rate (and something tells me Campbell would be firmly in that category).

If Sydney genuinely believes Campbell is a Ogilvie draft crush and a real risk of being bid on at #1 then trading down to GWS still means they are risking paying 2400 points for Campbell if that bid came in. So if my math checks out that would still eat through 90% of both the GWS compo and any traded pick they got from Geelong. Leaving them with pretty much nothing from that trade with their state rival club. Unless i'm missing something it seems like a pointless move under those circumstances.

Not saying I believe that would happen, just that Sydney's strategy must be ultra murky and completely at the mercy of us and North. I feel like its an opportunity that could be exploited.

I think it is as simple as having a generous trade down option in play for that pick, which they pull the trigger on if a bid comes in.

I don't think they'll look to trade up, and I think they'll assume the risk of a bid isn't high enough to sacrifice a later or future pick to prevent it.

 

[Mego Red]

I think the top tier goes to 6 deep easily. Everyone is sleeping on Phillips.
JUH, Hollands, McDonald, Tilthorpe, DGB & Phillips
Bruhn is no slouch either.

I dont think it is worth us potentially overpaying to trade up to 6 UNLESS Tilthorpe slides.

I'm not counting JUH.

I think the clear top 5 is as you said, minus him. Bruhn is a pretty big step back, mostly because of injury issues and not playing for two years.

 

[Mego Red]

With the talk of Dodoro only offering GWS a second rounder for Caldwell and then threatening they'll take him in the PSD.. I do wonder if somehow we can snag him with our 1st pick in the PSD if that does happen.

Now, I realise I'm overstating the capabilities of our list managers by making this happen but if they COULD make it happen that would be huge.

You don't think they would take Caldwell if he was available in the PSD?

 

[CutAboveTheRest]

You don't think they would take Caldwell if he was available in the PSD?

They, as in the dons?

 

[Hodgy]

TBH its a fairly murky situation to get my head around. I'm trying to figure out what Sydney would want vs what they would desperately try to avoid. Realistically both of those scenario's seem to fall within a very narrow window, and is almost 100% reliant on whether or not we or North bid on Campbell.

You would assume what they want is to get a player before their Campbell NGA pick, so the threat of us picking him at 1 (or NM at 2) would be the thing they most want to avoid. But if they traded back to 9 then it dramatically increases the risk of them not getting a player before their pick (unless they trade back up again).

People talk a lot about us going after WB's pick, but for me leveraging Sydney over their NGA has the potential for the far greater payoff

Sydney is certainly interesting, and if we actually rate Campbell as highly as Hollands then it would certainly make sense to make that public knowledge. If Sydney were convinced that we were likely to bid on him at 1 then I could easily see them trading next years 1st and 3 to get up to 1. They would then walk away from this year with McDonald, Campbell and Goulden, which is a pretty spectacular haul to build a team around.

we would then still get Tillthorpe or Hollands at 3, and be well set for next year as well.

 

[Chase13]

They, as in the dons?

gws want top ten pick for Caldwell. Essendon only second. Psd Adelaide welcome caldwell

wat do they want for hately hmmm better not be one of our seconds. Rat compo pick or psd as well

 

[Hodgy]

I think the top tier goes to 6 deep easily. Everyone is sleeping on Phillips.
JUH, Hollands, McDonald, Tilthorpe, DGB & Phillips
Bruhn is no slouch either.

I dont think it is worth us potentially overpaying to trade up to 6 UNLESS Tilthorpe slides.

There is no point counting JUH in a top 6 as the Bullies will take him from outside the top 6 picks.

 

[Spartacus_Aurelius]

There is no point counting JUH in a top 6 as the Bullies will take him from outside the top 6 picks.

Yep. Fair call. Mego Red said similar above

Strategy wise its narrower than that - its only really a big '3' for us
Hollands, McDonald, Tilthorpe. I cant see us having a big interest in Phillips or DGB (assuming Hollands with 1). What we would pay to get back up the order for anyone BAR Tilthorpe is not worth it. Hold our other picks and go for Perkins, O'Driscoll, etc and look at Baldwin in the 20's.

 

[Betts are off]

Sydney is certainly interesting, and if we actually rate Campbell as highly as Hollands then it would certainly make sense to make that public knowledge. If Sydney were convinced that we were likely to bid on him at 1 then I could easily see them trading next years 1st and 3 to get up to 1. They would then walk away from this year with McDonald, Campbell and Goulden, which is a pretty spectacular haul to build a team around.

we would then still get Tillthorpe or Hollands at 3, and be well set for next year as well.

Yeah, I don't really know how the best version of that deal would look, or what Sydney would be willing to do. I just feel like having very 3 viable options for pick 1, and having Sydney with pick 3 and a NGA is too juicy an opportunity to ignore.