Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

which mythological creature you think would win in a fight, Bigfoot or Santa?

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Deaneus!

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​


As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.
 
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Next year is the draft we need to hit hard, not this one.
Take pick 1 in the draft this year, trade out for a couple of firsts next year with pick 9 and a couple of seconds.
The thing to understand is that alot of the kids who would have bolted this year arnt going to get drafted.
So next year we have a better talent pool, who will most likely play the full season.
On top of that the U18s is changing to the U19s, so those that don't make it this year for various reasons will be able to smash the U19s the following year.
This is going to make the 2021 draft deep.
 

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CrowCro said:
I think they won’t get past 14, everyone in need of fwds
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Callow I can't see going 1st round and Baldwin would probably need an excellent medical report to go 1st round in my opinion.

Shannon Neale might be the KPF/Ruck that is the bolter.
 
Any word yet if Lake is actually being Pre-Listed by Gold Coast for their NT zone? He is definitely a player we should look into and be interested in
 
The AFL are saying there will be 3 periods where players can be signed mid season next year, after 4, 8 and 12 rounds.

Any idea how this will work? Will there be a draft order?

Deciding a draft order based on 4 games, even 8 and 12 seems ridiculous. Will it be based off 2020 ladder position? Will there be no order and players are just signed like free agents?
 
The crows need to pull a rabbit out of the hat ASAP to change supporter sentiment. Just something positive to hang our hats on. Surely a pick swap is achievable. Can’t see any players from left field being traded in.

If there is any chance Caldwell walks to PSD Nicks has to be reaching out surely.
 
Max Cottaletta said:
The crows need to pull a rabbit out of the hat ASAP to change supporter sentiment. Just something positive to hang our hats on. Surely a pick swap is achievable. Can’t see any players from left field being traded in.

If there is any chance Caldwell walks to PSD Nicks has to be reaching out surely.
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yep, if caldwell somehow makes it to the psd nicks should definitely give him a call.
 
Peter Doherty said:
The AFL are saying there will be 3 periods where players can be signed mid season next year, after 4, 8 and 12 rounds.

Any idea how this will work? Will there be a draft order?

Deciding a draft order based on 4 games, even 8 and 12 seems ridiculous. Will it be based off 2020 ladder position? Will there be no order and players are just signed like free agents?
Click to expand...

News - Proposed Changes to the Mid-Season Draft for 2021

https://www.afl.com.au/news/523629/statement-update-on-nga-concessions-pre-season-supplementary-selection-period-nab-afl-mid-season-rookie-draft NAB AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft The AFL today proposed an alternative model to the NAB AFL Mid-Season Rookie Draft for 2021 that would allow Clubs to...
www.bigfooty.com www.bigfooty.com
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
I can see this... forgetting JUH, and .....ESS with potentially 3 straight picks will cause a concern with their mix of players (2 mids and a tall), Davies the big bodied mid

1. Adelaide - Hollands
2. North - McDonald
3. Sydney - Thilthorpe
4. Hawthorn - Grainger-Barrass
5. Gold Coast - Phillips
6. Essendon - Tanner Bruhn
7. Essendon - Davies
8. Essendon - Zack Reid
9. Adelaide - Perkins
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Isn't Davies a GC academy?
 

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Hope you guys don't mind me coming onto your board but if I were you I would want Adelaide to bid on JUH with pick 1, not to hurt the Bulldogs points wise but because it means whoever you pick will then be pick 2 and he will have so much less pressure on him as a result. History shows that pick 1 comes with a pressure and scrutiny that other players don't face, and many players can't handle that pressure. Quite a lot of pick 1 players never become what they should become because of that. Sure Adelaide would lose the ability to market the fact you guys have the number 1 player in the draft, and whoever you draft would lose $10,000 that the number 1 pick gets, but overall taking the pressure off whoever you draft feels like it would be a good thing in the long run.
 
RUNVS said:
Hope you guys don't mind me coming onto your board but if I were you I would want Adelaide to bid on JUH with pick 1, not to hurt the Bulldogs points wise but because it means whoever you pick will then be pick 2 and he will have so much less pressure on him as a result. History shows that pick 1 comes with a pressure and scrutiny that other players don't face, and many players can't handle that pressure. Quite a lot of pick 1 players never become what they should become because of that. Sure Adelaide would lose the ability to market the fact you guys have the number 1 player in the draft, and whoever you draft would lose $10,000 that the number 1 pick gets, but overall taking the pressure off whoever you draft feels like it would be a good thing in the long run.
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Pretty sure we just call out the guy we rate as the best
 
Cleric said:
Next year is the draft we need to hit hard, not this one.
Take pick 1 in the draft this year, trade out for a couple of firsts next year with pick 9 and a couple of seconds.
The thing to understand is that alot of the kids who would have bolted this year arnt going to get drafted.
So next year we have a better talent pool, who will most likely play the full season.
On top of that the U18s is changing to the U19s, so those that don't make it this year for various reasons will be able to smash the U19s the following year.
This is going to make the 2021 draft deep.
Click to expand...
They are talking about doing multiple mid season drafts next year. This will take out a lot of those undrafted kids that were missed this year. I think we need to spread our top end picks over the 2 years. 3 first rounders this year and then aim to do the same next year (with another top 3 pick) and we will be well placed moving forward with our rebuild.
 
Interesting read on Key Forwards Draft History

footylover18 said:
Hi guys, my latest post is below. Check it other posts at: https://breakinglines.substack.com/



Around 2013 Indiana Pacers centre Roy Hibbert was anchoring one of the NBA’s best defences. He was making All-Star teams and in contention for Defensive Player of the Year awards. Barely a few seasons later he was consigned to the role of a bench warmer and was soon out of the league. Hibbert’s fall from grace was unique in that it was not due to any decline in ability or injury but that the league had redefined itself.

The 3 point shot was taking over. Teams were going smaller. Centres and forwards were spacing out. The offense now revolved around outside shots and the “pick’n’roll”. This shift in game play diminished Hibbert’s greatest strength and highlighted his inability to switch in the pick’n’roll action. Offensively he was not flexible enough to adapt to the new requirements of the centre position. Just like that, Hibbert went from being a star centre to borderline unplayable.

With the AFL Draft approaching, attention has turned to who the Crows may select with the first pick. The top end of the draft is dominated by key position forward talent. In recent years there has been a trend against taking forwards at the top of the draft. I looked back at the top 10 selections of each draft from 1997 to 2019. For 19 straight years at least one key position forward was taken top 10. Three times in the last four years, none were taken top 10.

I ran a Twitter Poll asking people to vote on why they thought less key forwards had been drafted at the top of the draft in the last few years:






The majority view is that list managers are wary of the high risk associated with key forwards and that taking a midfielder represents a safer option. Looking back through the last 23 drafts the top end is littered with tall forwards that did not pan out.

On the other hand, most of the dominant key forwards of the last 20 years were taken at the top end of the draft. To obtain a gun forward chances are a top pick will be required, even if they carry significant risk.

Why is it that for 19 years in a row a key forward was taken top 10 and then in 2016, 2017 and 2019, none were taken?

Some have suggested that the disappointing careers of Patton, Boyd, Schache and McCartin led to risk aversion from list managers. I do not believe this is the reason. Recruiters are aware that tall forwards take more time to develop. Schache was drafted in 2015 so I’d be surprised if the reflex to avoid forwards occurred that quickly. Furthermore, Tom Boyd’s dominant 2016 Finals series would’ve highlighted the benefit of having an elite tall forward.

I posit that the reason why we have seen fewer key forwards drafted at the top end is because the type of forward recruiters are now looking for is simply harder to find.

The role of a tall forward has changed significantly over the past 5 years or so. It is no longer sufficient to be a 200cm behemoth that is able to take a contested mark. Tall forwards are now required to get to more contests, take contested marks, compete at ground level and importantly apply significant defensive pressure. We now need our forwards to be extraordinary athletes. Perhaps the reason why tall forwards have not appeared at the top in three of the last 4 drafts is not because recruiters are afraid of drafting them but because this contemporary archetype is far rarer than the old-fashioned power forward type?

Boyd, Schache, McCartin and Patton may have entered the league in the wrong era. Health issues aside, it is not a stretch to envisage each of them dominating the comp a decade earlier.

2018 bucked the recent trend of tall forwards being absent at the top of the draft. Jack Lukosius, Max King and Ben King all were taken early. The difference in stature between these forwards and the four that were taken in the years before them are plainly obvious:



Josh Schache: 199cm, 98kg

Patrick McCartin: 194cm, 94kg

Tom Boyd: 201cm, 102kg

Jonathon Patton: 197cm, 100kg

————————————————————

Jack Lukosius: 195cm, 85kg

Matthew King: 204cm, 90kg

Ben King: 202 cm, 87kg



The prior quartet were built differently. Thick and strong through the core. Strong chest and shoulders. The 2018 crop are not built like that. They are leaner and far more athletic in their movement. They are the true modern day forward that is able to crash a pack, take a contested mark, roam up the ground, compete when the ball hits the deck and pressure the opposition when the ball is turned over. The days of the key forward being able to sit in the goal square and lead into open spaces and then catch their breath when the opposition take possession is no longer. But this is the type of game that Schache, McCartin, Boyd and Patton were built for. Just like Roy Hibbert suffered with a changing game, these tall forwards were blessed with a skillset that was no longer as effective.

One must be careful about reasoning by analogy. It is better to reason by first principles. Why did Boyd et al fail to live up to expectations and how do those reasons pertain to this current crop we are trying to project? It is difficult to assess a player who is of enormous stature and playing against school kids most of whom will not sniff state level standard let alone the AFL. How much of a prospect’s dominance is simply due to their advanced physical stature? A response to my Twitter poll made an excellent point about the anti-congestion TAC Cup rules and how this may be artificially opening up the game which is not representative of how the game is played at AFL level.

It is anomalous that the Patton, Boyd, Schache, McCartin quartet all failed to live up to expectations. All except Schache (pick 2) were taken at pick 1. The fact that they all entered the league in short succession and each struggled to have consistent impact to me suggests external factors. Injuries certainly played a part. The changing expectations of what teams needed their tall forwards to do however also likely played a significant role. Recruiters remain on the lookout for elite forwards, but it is no longer the power forward that they are seeking.
Click to expand...
 
Disco Fox said:
Fascinating - thanks for that. Do both Thilthorpe & McDonald fit that revised tall forward profile? From the footage I've seen they both do. Therefore they may be rare beasts!!
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Yes they do .....probably McDonald moreso as the pure Key Forward

My preference is Hollands .....but I'll support whatever call we make, given Hamish and his team have an eye to not only the whole draft, and who will be available with our later picks ......but also next years Draft

Must admit, the thought of getting Hollands and one of the Talls had me salivating ......do we have the b....s to be aggressive as Port was to get Rozee .....doubt it, would be out of character
 
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