Prediction 2020 Ladder Predictions

[Capriati]

Yep and Ross Lyon is blamed for it. Blame the recruitment staff

I don't know who to blame and don't really care.

More than happy for Freo to continue with current strategy and trajectory if that means turning their nose up and passing on players like Elliot Yeo and Oscar Allen.

 

[Lsta062]

I'm a neutral at this as it cuts both ways. There's a positive and negative.

Yes you got the MCG advantage on GF day. However when it comes to gun local talent, Richmond has to fight against 9 other state teams for a Dustin Martin type player.

I'm a Freo fan and we only get west coast as competitive opponent to fight for local kids.

So in theory, west coast should easily make finals winning 10 of their 12 games. At home and beating 2-4 away teams away.

Again...... Cuts both ways

Thank you, yes that is what I mean. Both Victorian and Non-Victorian teams have their advantages and disadvantages. That’s why you generally see quite an even amount of Victorians and non-Victorians making the top 8.

 

[Jez1974]

Thank you, yes that is what I mean. Both Victorian and Non-Victorian teams have their advantages and disadvantages. That’s why you generally see quite an even amount of Victorians and non-Victorians making the top 8.

Totally agree, although all 18 teams have access to all talent!

 

[ParapMarkets]

My prediction:

West Coast
Richmond
Bulldogs
GWS
Collingwood
Brisbane
Geelong
Melbourne
St Kilda
Essendon
Fremantle
Port Adelaide
Carlton
Adelaide
Sydney
North Melbourne
Hawthorn
Gold Coast

The only way Hawthorn finish second last is with a major injury crisis. Teams that field a team as experienced as Hawthorn will this year very rarely finish in the bottom 4.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Thank you, yes that is what I mean. Both Victorian and Non-Victorian teams have their advantages and disadvantages. That’s why you generally see quite an even amount of Victorians and non-Victorians making the top 8.

And every grand final since 2011 been a Vic v non Vic affair

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Of course that's true. Why would anyone zero in on the advantages of a team that was almost entirely absent from finals during that time? The reason why no one was talking about the Tigers is because the simply weren't worth talking about.

However, the argument about Grand Finals at MCG has been an argument for many years since the competition went national. As a flag contender who is is also an MCG tennant, it's logical that the conversation would include Richmond since 2017, but not between 1982 and 2016.

Also- In terms of banter, this is a two way street. I have seen many Tigers supporters refer to Optus (and KP) as "cheat grounds", whatever that means.



Now you get it. It isn't about Richmond at all. Instead it is about the structure of our national competition. In the eyes of those who believe the fixture and structure still benefits Victorian teams, they see Richmond as the most recent beneficiary of AFL's Vic-centric structure. People have views on it, one way or the other.



I disagree with your description of some of those games, but I'll ignore that and engage with the broader idea.

Who ever wins the flag in any given year has "sliding door" moments, and either things go your way or they don't. In 2018 we were able to seize the moment when the opportunity presented itself (wins against Port, Pies x2,) and in 2019 we weren't (at home v Pies, Round 22 v Tigers , and SF v Cats). We led in all 3 of those matches at 3/4 time and ended up losing. To my mind, those three games were the difference.

Eagles fans all know that we weren't as good in 2019 as we were in 2018. We also know we will need to be better in 2020 if we want to win the flag.

As an Eagles fan the improvement expected in 2020 with fit NicNat, TK11 etc puts us in good stead for 2020. The sense is we will be in it up to our eye balls again next year, so I guess we will have to see how it eventuates.

Finally someone has responded and more so being honest!

I agree its extremely hard to win back to back. Even with us shitting the bed in the 2018 PF and allowing Cox to have a one hit blinder!

Eagles are my flag favourites especially with adding a hopefully fully fit NN and Kelly.

In response to the Vic advantages in GF I agree it is huge. However as Geelong and all non Vic sides have is 10 pure home games (not including cross town rivalries) however still score a neutral away game agaisnt them. With that amount of pure home games you already have a leg into the finals. Once there yes different story with GF being at MCG.

So I believe it's harder for Rich, Coll ect to make finals as we have seen in the last 40 years. But if big "if" make GF have the advantage over non MCG tenants.

So if simple terms its all swings and roundabouts and evens out across entire season.

 

[CrimsonButterfly]

1. North Melbourne
2. Nobody
3. Else
4. Matters
5. Only
6. Blue
7. And
8. White

9. Plus
10. Football
11. Is
12. Still
13. Five
14. Whole
15. Weeks
16. Away
17. Sadly
18. The other team with "Melbourne" in its name.

 

[Gavin Excell]

1. North Melbourne
2. Nobody
3. Else
4. Matters
5. Only
6. Blue
7. And
8. White

9. Plus
10. Football
11. Is
12. Still
13. Five
14. Whole
15. Weeks
16. Away
17. Sadly
18. The other team with "Melbourne" in its name.

North suck

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

I'm a neutral at this as it cuts both ways. There's a positive and negative.

Yes you got the MCG advantage on GF day. However when it comes to gun local talent, Richmond has to fight against 9 other state teams for a Dustin Martin type player.

I'm a Freo fan and we only get west coast as competitive opponent to fight for local kids.

So in theory, west coast should easily make finals winning 10 of their 12 games. At home and beating 2-4 away teams away.

Again...... Cuts both ways

Couldn't write it anymore perfectly myself. Someone with unbias sense!

 

[ParapMarkets]

I just think things have fallen Richmond’s way a lot more than other Victorian premiers. Home finals, lack of injuries for a couple of seasons. Getting Tom Lynch when you did, helpful fixturing etc. Teams like Hawthorn and Geelong terrorised the competition in all circumstances year round and I can’t put Richmond along side them, but the competition is more even these days so it’s a lot harder to dominate. You’re one of the front runners this season for sure, I’m just backing a few to catch you this year

nuetral

Personally, I don’t think you are giving credit where it’s due. Richmond have been excellent for 3 years now, their record isn’t really that far off Hawthorn’s (though obviously 3 premierships is better than 2) and they were actually more dominant in finals in 2017 and 2019 compared to Hawthorn through 2013-15.

I also wouldn’t put the Richmond team in the same bracket as Hawthorn and Geelong yet, but they aren’t far off. If they win another premiership in the next 2-3 years, which they are every chance of doing, they will be hard to ignore.

The question for me is whether they can keep their hunger, it only takes a very small difference to be brought back to the pack. I don’t see them diving down the ladder until age catches up to Dusty, which you would think is still at least 2-3 years away.

 

[ParapMarkets]

Oh dear? First six or 7 weeks?

Rance missed the season
Cotchin missed 11 games
Reiwodlt missed 12
Namkervis 14
Short 10


and a variety of others as well including stack at the end.They had two players play every game- lowest in the league.

Why are you pretending to be a Geelong fan when you are quite clearly a Richmond fan?

 

[Captain chaos]

Why are you pretending to be a Geelong fan when you are quite clearly a Richmond fan?

lol..stick to the topoc.

 

[RonnieRaven]

Carlton would have won the flag last year if they had of won more games

Blues have only won more games then they’ve lost in HnA 3 times since 2001 they’ve had some rotten luck
Its just the bounce of the ball sometime

 

[Freomaniac]

Couldn't write it anymore perfectly myself. Someone with unbias sense!

Thank you, yes that is what I mean. Both Victorian and Non-Victorian teams have their advantages and disadvantages. That’s why you generally see quite an even amount of Victorians and non-Victorians making the top 8.

Again cuts both ways to be honest.

See, you didnt get a lot of complaints from freo supporters after the 2013 Grand final as it was a close game and freo sprayed some shots. Plus the Swans beat the hawks Narrowly the previous years grand final too.

The issue reared its ugly head after a lot of Crows fans complained about it after the 2017 GF.

the Ironic thing of the situation was an Eagles fan started a thread in Early 2018 about no Non-Victorian side has beaten a Victorian side in a grand final with out Salary Cap or Draft concessions. Ironic thing was West coast beat Collingwood by under a goal in the Grand final and killed off that bastardization myth.

Prior to that, Again the last Non Vic side to beat a Vic side in the Grand final was Swans beating the hawks in 2012 grand final but Swans had the COLA at the time and everyone bitched and moaned about that. Well.... the main issue is when you win a flag, you either stay the same or be weaker due to key players retiring.

Swans got Kurt Tippett after the 2012 GF win to make their team stronger and People on here Blame the COLA bull**** on it. People forget that the swans paid for an ageing KPF Daniel Bradshaw a 3 year contract from 2010-12. Bradshaw retired in mid 2011 due to injuries. So they still paid his final year in 2012. The COLA was phased out. Each side has a maximum salary cap of $13,000,000 or $250,000 a week.

So you got 40 players at an Average of $325,000 a year or $6,250 a week. Decent wage for a fringe player.

Essentially they replaced Bradshaw spot and his wages with kurt tippett.

 

[Freomaniac]

I don't know who to blame and don't really care.

More than happy for Freo to continue with current strategy and trajectory if that means turning their nose up and passing on players like Elliot Yeo and Oscar Allen.

Of course you dont care. If Freo ever improve their recruiting staff and medical staff, we would be better than your mob.

But your happy to turn down Michael Walters and Nathan fyfe?

I dont mind Cam McCarthy, Lobb, Joel Hamling and Nathan Wilson in our trades

 

[Capriati]

Of course you dont care. If Freo ever improve their recruiting staff and medical staff, we would be better than your mob.

But your happy to turn down Michael Walters and Nathan fyfe?

I dont mind Cam McCarthy, Lobb, Joel Hamling and Nathan Wilson in our trades

Keep dreaming, mate.

We achieved more in the worst decade of our clubs history than your useless mob has since they joined the comp.

 

[Freomaniac]

Keep dreaming, mate.

We achieved more in the worst decade of our clubs history than your useless mob has since they joined the comp.

you might have.

But Freo has made a Grand final. History shows that once you make a Grand final, even if you lose it the 1st time, you eventually win a flag.

 

[Capriati]

you might have.

But Freo has made a Grand final. History shows that once you make a Grand final, even if you lose it the 1st time, you eventually win a flag.

Good luck with that, my money is on GWS winning a flag before Freo do.


Probably Gold Coast, too.

 

[Freomaniac]

Good luck with that, my money is on GWS winning a flag before Freo do.


Probably Gold Coast, too.

Gold coast has to make finals 1st before they make a Grand final.

GWS might win a flag or 2 before freo. Might even win it this year.

 

[WCE Wizard]

Finally someone has responded and more so being honest!

I agree its extremely hard to win back to back. Even with us shitting the bed in the 2018 PF and allowing Cox to have a one hit blinder!

Eagles are my flag favourites especially with adding a hopefully fully fit NN and Kelly.

In response to the Vic advantages in GF I agree it is huge. However as Geelong and all non Vic sides have is 10 pure home games (not including cross town rivalries) however still score a neutral away game agaisnt them. With that amount of pure home games you already have a leg into the finals. Once there yes different story with GF being at MCG.

So I believe it's harder for Rich, Coll ect to make finals as we have seen in the last 40 years. But if big "if" make GF have the advantage over non MCG tenants.

So if simple terms its all swings and roundabouts and evens out across entire season.

This is all some good content instead some of the garbage i have been seeing, no one complained when Richmond was not doing well till 2016. This Vicbias thing is a bit mad to be honest. We were not good enough in 2019. We dropped games against the Pies, Tigers, Hawks that the 2018 Eagles would not have done it cost us a top 2 spot and that is it. 2020 we have a fully fit NN, Josh Kennnedy, Tim Kelly and fire in the belly. Lets see how it plays out

 

[WCE Wizard]

Couldn't write it anymore perfectly myself. Someone with unbias sense!

Boom, this, we have a massive home ground advantage at Optus if we win 11 games that means we really only need to win half our away games for a top 4 spot. Richmond did well to win 12 games in a row last year. They also beat all the top 5 teams and well deserve their premiership. Some say they had some luck, but this competition is brutal and you need some luck to win a flag.

 

[VicBased]

Of course that's true. Why would anyone zero in on the advantages of a team that was almost entirely absent from finals during that time? The reason why no one was talking about the Tigers is because the simply weren't worth talking about.

However, the argument about Grand Finals at MCG has been an argument for many years since the competition went national. As a flag contender who is is also an MCG tennant, it's logical that the conversation would include Richmond since 2017, but not between 1982 and 2016.

Also- In terms of banter, this is a two way street. I have seen many Tigers supporters refer to Optus (and KP) as "cheat grounds", whatever that means.



Now you get it. It isn't about Richmond at all. Instead it is about the structure of our national competition. In the eyes of those who believe the fixture and structure still benefits Victorian teams, they see Richmond as the most recent beneficiary of AFL's Vic-centric structure. People have views on it, one way or the other.



I disagree with your description of some of those games, but I'll ignore that and engage with the broader idea.

Who ever wins the flag in any given year has "sliding door" moments, and either things go your way or they don't. In 2018 we were able to seize the moment when the opportunity presented itself (wins against Port, Pies x2,) and in 2019 we weren't (at home v Pies, Round 22 v Tigers , and SF v Cats). We led in all 3 of those matches at 3/4 time and ended up losing. To my mind, those three games were the difference.

Eagles fans all know that we weren't as good in 2019 as we were in 2018. We also know we will need to be better in 2020 if we want to win the flag.

As an Eagles fan the improvement expected in 2020 with fit NicNat, TK11 etc puts us in good stead for 2020. The sense is we will be in it up to our eye balls again next year, so I guess we will have to see how it eventuates.

Excellent answer. Precise and non bias.

 

[WestCoast05]

...

I'm with you on a lot of points.
No point going on about Richmond's lack of travel, it's just the nature of a league that has 10 Victorian teams. We are where we are as a league and it is not Richmond's fault.
Richmond's lack of true Away games in various games is nullified by interstate teams having true Home games - but we have more true Away games also. It all equals out.

I think the greatest unfairness in the league is when certain teams, eg Us, West Coast (and others) are the one who always have to play in Tasmania, GBHLGBITQ Stadium and the SCG year in and year out.
Playing West Coast in Perth is hard right?
Imagine if only certain teams had to play in Perth every year and others didn't? That's what it is like being the team constantly sent to Tasmania and Geelong. Bit unfair when usually percentage (let alone points) is what can get you into the top 4 or even the 8.

As for the Grand Final, despite its natural advantage for Victorian teams, I can understand the Grand Final being held at the MCG every year - it is frikkin huge.
But I think if any other state is willing to build a 80k+ stadium then I think the topic should be revisited - until then there is no point point the finger at Victorian winners for something that they cannot help. That doesnt make it a neutral ground though - but it is what it is.
As a West Coast supporter it just makes beating a Victorian team there all the more sweeter.


But to speak as to the most frustrating thing us non-Victorian AFL supporters have to put up with - it is the NATIONAL AFL media.
Try being an interstate supporter and putting up with the biased, blind dickheadery of Mark Robinson, Gerard Whatley, Gary Lyon, Derm, Eddie Maguire, Nick Riewoldt etc
Not just the media narrative but the commentary also, if there was one single area as an interstate supporter I think is broken it is in the commentary box and the media narrative.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

I'm with you on a lot of points.
No point going on about Richmond's lack of travel, it's just the nature of a league that has 10 Victorian teams. We are where we are as a league and it is not Richmond's fault.
Richmond's lack of true Away games in various games is nullified by interstate teams having true Home games - but we have more true Away games also. It all equals out.

I think the greatest unfairness in the league is when certain teams, eg Us, West Coast (and others) are the one who always have to play in Tasmania, GBHLGBITQ Stadium and the SCG year in and year out.
Playing West Coast in Perth is hard right?
Imagine if only certain teams had to play in Perth every year and others didn't? That's what it is like being the team constantly sent to Tasmania and Geelong. Bit unfair when usually percentage (let alone points) is what can get you into the top 4 or even the 8.

As for the Grand Final, despite its natural advantage for Victorian teams, I can understand the Grand Final being held at the MCG every year - it is frikkin huge.
But I think if any other state is willing to build a 80k+ stadium then I think the topic should be revisited - until then there is no point point the finger at Victorian winners for something that they cannot help. That doesnt make it a neutral ground though - but it is what it is.
As a West Coast supporter it just makes beating a Victorian team there all the more sweeter.


But to speak as to the most frustrating thing us non-Victorian AFL supporters have to put up with - it is the NATIONAL AFL media.
Try being an interstate supporter and putting up with the biased, blind dickheadery of Mark Robinson, Gerard Whatley, Gary Lyon, Derm, Eddie Maguire, Nick Riewoldt etc
Not just the media narrative but the commentary also, if there was one single area as an interstate supporter I think is broken it is in the commentary box and the media narrative.

Haha yeah all those named are exaclty that!
Also i don't blame you about being frustrated with having to play at the shithole GMBGLBAGLBLQ or whatever it is! Also agree with the Tasmania thing. Nth and Hawks have a strong hold there and seem to bank easy points. This is why I hope we get a Tassie team so those two can stop benefiting from it.
As for the GF being at the MCG yes it is what it is and NRL is the same. Just look at Melb Storm for an e.g, how many times did they have to play the GF in Sydney after finishing premiers. To be honest if other states built bigger stadiums I think it would be awesome to have a weekend away in another state for a GF. The build up and pre game beers would be way more exciting. I'm from Perth myself so in 17 & 19, I travelled to Melb but wasn't the same feeling.

 

[WCE Wizard]

Haha yeah all those named are exaclty that!
Also i don't blame you about being frustrated with having to play at the shithole GMBGLBAGLBLQ or whatever it is! Also agree with the Tasmania thing. Nth and Hawks have a strong hold there and seem to bank easy points. This is why I hope we get a Tassie team so those two can stop benefiting from it.
As for the GF being at the MCG yes it is what it is and NRL is the same. Just look at Melb Storm for an e.g, how many times did they have to play the GF in Sydney after finishing premiers. To be honest if other states built bigger stadiums I think it would be awesome to have a weekend away in another state for a GF. The build up and pre game beers would be way more exciting. I'm from Perth myself so in 17 & 19, I travelled to Melb but wasn't the same feeling.

Sadly we would love to play more at the MCG but get stuck playing the Hawks in some suburban ground in Tassie and that awful GMHBAGW ground against Geelong. You think good sides like West Coast with a big supporter base in Melbourne would get to play most of its games in Melbourne at the MCG. We would love 5 games a year at the MCG.