2025 Ladder Predictions

[hawkman]

No Victorian teams to make the 8, bookmark it.

It may have been possible except for the fact that it requires West Coast to make the 8

 

[hawkman]

Hawthorn finishing up in the top 6 this season means they're in the group that receives the hardest fixture for 2025. They won't get the leg-up of playing both Richmond and North twice like they did this year. Likely to still make top 8, but 5-8 range.

Some of the fixture stuff is pure luck. A hard draw in December can look like an easy draw after the season.

This season we got Collingwood, GWS, Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond and North. Last December it was rated one of the tougher fixtures. We got lucky that Collingwood and Adelaide dropped off and Richmond became awful while we were unlucky Geelong jumped up. In the end it was a much easier draw than what it looked originally.

 

[Fadge]

Some of the fixture stuff is pure luck. A hard draw in December can look like an easy draw after the season.

This season we got Collingwood, GWS, Adelaide, Geelong, Richmond and North. Last December it was rated one of the tougher fixtures. We got lucky that Collingwood and Adelaide dropped off and Richmond became awful while we were unlucky Geelong jumped up. In the end it was a much easier draw than what it looked originally.

Yep, exactly right.

But even more than that... how were the teams travelling when you played them?

Hawthorn were a different team in the first 5 rounds than they were for the rest of the season; Carlton were woeful for the last 9 rounds of the season; Brisbane were ordinary for the first 7 games of the season; What in game injuries did your opposition have when you played them?

To accurately analyse the difficulty of a draw, you really have to go into the minute detail of each team at each round, and I've never seen anyone do this.

Of course, there can be clear outliers, such as teams lucky enough to get double up games against the two clear worst teams in the competition, who were woeful for most of the season.

 

[NetworkNerd]

After the trade period there is a chance Geelong will go 23-0 and Richmond 0-23 and everyone else somewhere in between

 

[Mojo]

Hawthorn finishing up in the top 6 this season means they're in the group that receives the hardest fixture for 2025. They won't get the leg-up of playing both Richmond and North twice like they did this year. Likely to still make top 8, but 5-8 range.

There's several variables involved in hypothesising a team's future ladder position. i.e. is the team trending in a particular direction? Players/Coaches acquired or lost during the off-season, greater/fewer prime-time slots, fixture (hasn't been confirmed), list age, etc.

 

[wahawk]

Freo playing Freo second week of finals is gonna be a tough game

I’d vote for Jello_B to be on the AFLcommission.
They’ve finally got rid of Essendone from the AFL

 

[wahawk]

No Victorian teams to make the 8, bookmark it.

Do you really want anyone to bookmark this ?

 

[Blackhawk42]

1. Brisbane
2. Sydney
3. Collingwood
4. Geelong
5. Carlton
6. GWS
7. Hawks
8. Port

9. Freo
10. Bulldogs
11. Adelaide
12. Melbourne
13. North Melbourne
14. St Kilda
15. Gold Coast
16. Essendon
17. West Coast
18. Richmond

Gee that's a tough top 4 for neutral supporters. The same 4 teams from the last 3 years of Grand Finals.

 

[Jezzitizle]

Gee that's a tough top 4 for neutral supporters. The same 4 teams from the last 3 years of Grand Finals.

To be fair it would mean Pies are probably back to playing run and gun footy which is a good watch.

I could handle a Cats v Pies granny if Freo can’t get there, think it’d be a good watch.

 

[Blackhawk42]

To be fair it would mean Pies are probably back to playing run and gun footy which is a good watch.

I could handle a Cats v Pies granny if Freo can’t get there, think it’d be a good watch.

Don't reckon they'll be anywhere near it personally.
The older players who let them down this season are going to be a year older again.

Best chance they've got is De Goey playing 23 consistent games at his best level, and McStay, Membery and Mihochek all booting 35 goals +.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Port Adelaide
Gold Coast
Western Bulldogs
GWS
Melbourne
Hawthorn
Stkilda
Brisbane

Fremantle
Sydney
Geelong
Collingwood
Adelaide
Carlton
Essendon
West Coast
North Melbourne
Richmond

Gee whiz AP, some good money to had if this turns out to be true

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Gee whiz AP, some good money to had if this turns out to be true

There's always surprises

 

[kreuze_missile]

1. Carlton
-------
Daylight
-------
The rest

 

[Pistol Night]

1. Carlton
-------
Daylight
-------
The rest

Hopefully you don’t shit the bed playing daylight in a final

 

[hawkman]

1. Carlton
-------
Daylight
-------
The rest

So the same prediction you make every year. What is your success rate?

 

[bungalow_bill]

So the same prediction you make every year. What is your success rate?

Since '95 - Owen 28.

 

[Stax on the mill]

Carlton 15th

Yes, possibly a tad high.

 

[Orange crush]

Hopefully you don’t shit the bed playing daylight in a final

In a night final

 

[kreuze_missile]

So the same prediction you make every year. What is your success rate?

Smashed it out of the ****ing park back in 1995

 

[Jim Prideaux]

There's always surprises

On that, there is no doubt. I’ll be the first to offer you the title of Nostradamus if you are relatively correct. Having said that, the top 8/ bottom 10 aren’t outlandish by themselves, but the order is something.

 

[adammania9]

Don't reckon they'll be anywhere near it personally.
The older players who let them down this season are going to be a year older again.

Best chance they've got is De Goey playing 23 consistent games at his best level, and McStay, Membery and Mihochek all booting 35 goals +.

It wasn’t Collingwood veterans who let the side down this year. Prime players who should be reasonably expected to play better footy like De Goey, Quaynor and Moore all had poor years. The oldies held up their end of the deal.

 

[ImCheatingToWin]

Hawthorn finishing up in the top 6 this season means they're in the group that receives the hardest fixture for 2025. They won't get the leg-up of playing both Richmond and North twice like they did this year. Likely to still make top 8, but 5-8 range.

As long as they give us Collingwood twice that will even it out

 

[The Nostradamus]

On that, there is no doubt. I’ll be the first to offer you the title of Nostradamus if you are relatively correct. Having said that, the top 8/ bottom 10 aren’t outlandish by themselves, but the order is something.

No that’s me

 

[Jim Prideaux]

No that’s me

We’ll see

 

[Howard Littlejohn]

• Geelong - don't ask why, just a gut feel thing
• Brisbane - might start slow again, but hard to see not being thereabouts again - if the new forward structure works
• Greater Western Sydney - not exactly convinced, could take a huge dive if a few key players drop off
• Carlton - forward setup is too good not to win games, but the rest of the team (bar a couple) puts a big question over getting it done in finals when you have to be able to rely on everyone
• Collingwood - last hurrah before a (possibly short term) dive? showed enough when they came good later to be in the middle of finals
• Port Adelaide - "not quite" seems about their level
• Sydney - those two recent GFs have got to hurt, suspect an over-reaction in team makeup, which might take a while to come good
• Western Bulldogs - could easily be top two if everything clicks and some promising players really kick on, losing Bailey Smith
  3

  Bailey Smith

  Age

  24

  Ht

  185cm

  Wt

  86kg

  Pos.

  M/F

  Career

  Season

  Last 5

  D

  18.3

  5star

  K

  8.5

  3star

  HB

  9.8

  5star

  M

  2.3

  2star

  T

  3.8

  5star

  CL

  2.7

  4star

  D

  19.8

  5star

  K

  9.6

  4star

  HB

  10.2

  5star

  M

  1.8

  2star

  T

  3.2

  4star

  CL

  3.2

  4star

  D

  14.8

  4star

  K

  7.6

  3star

  HB

  7.2

  5star

  M

  2.0

  3star

  T

  3.4

  5star

  CL

  1.6

  4star

  an irritant but can be overcome

-------------

• Fremantle - I thought I would have them around the middle of the eight, but had to place others above them
• Hawthorn - expecting stagnation after 2-3 years worth of climb in one, combined with a likely hard draw could play just as well without getting as many wins; could equally be 4th or 5th
• Gold Coast - ho hum, learn to win away and climb a couple of spots
• Adelaide - might just be the hardest to place, anything (except 1st, 17th or 18th) could happen
• Essendon - surprised the hype train hasn't started yet, the arrogance is usually up front at this stage
• St Kilda - last of the realistic chances of the eight, but could be the big bolter of the year; I can't even say why, but there are times when there seems to be promise of more, just not expecting it to be fulfilled

gap

• West Coast - OK, am I over-rating them? I have no reason to rate them
• Melbourne - didn't lose all the players that were rumoured to be wanting out, but something seems wrong and imo not a great list. Obviously have a couple of stars and can get wins against most, but I can't see them winning consistently (which probably means they will).

yawning chasm

• North Melbourne - for 2024 I picked 0 wins, expcting 2-5 in 2025 assuming a better injury run in key positions. Really looking for the bad games not to be as bad (maybe just as bad against Brisbane, or in SA - seem to be 8 goals worse in either of those circumstances) and a percentage that's not quite the same joke levels.
• Richmond - will win a game or two somewhere, probably 1 v North, maybe GC in Melbourne, or St Kilda on a bad goalkicking day

And after all that bear in mind, we all get these badly wrong. And I get them badlier wronger than most, partly because I just don't pay the attention I used to.