2020 Non-Crows AFL Discussion

[Canuck_Crow]

The poster said "Government" estimates as in OFFICIAL sources?

Just to clarify I'm not having a go at you but there's truckloads of misinformation circulating in the media and social media in particular so unless it comes from a medical practitioner or a reliable Government source you really don't know who to believe.

some what of a fair call, I didn't think you were having a crack at any one I just wanted to expand the conversation. medical practitioner is not who you want, you need a epidemiologist. the key point with all of this is what does the bell curve look like and how can we take what has occurred in South Korea, China, Japan and Hong kong and project that upon Australia's or Canada's situation. multiple different factors in play, culture, health care etc. but lots of comparables

the significant issue is how far along the curve Australia is and how close is the official testing is to the real number of people infected, most recent studies i have read that Australia is catching one in four cases. those numbers aren't bad but there not great Australia has preformed the 4th most test in the world but that is still less than 30% of what South Korea has done, Australia was slow on social distancing and locking everything down. given the disease path as noted by other countries Australia is in the first 15 days of 100 + day cycle. So given Australia is testing less people than the only democratic country to hamper this virus it would be fair to say it will be on par or worse than South Korea, considering South Korea locked shit down earlier and have been playing big brother with infected peoples phones. currently Australia's infection rate day on day increase is below where South Korea's was but not by much. I would recommend looking the two links below. and on the point of government data they will never given prediction info but the trends are easy to see. Stay safe.

Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19) - Statistics and Research

Country-by-country data and research on the pandemic. Updated daily.

ourworldindata.org

 

[hey shorty]

no one has a clue imo, they are all talking out of their backside.

I think the ID guys would have more of a clue than most, but it's very much calculated guess work.

Australia is better placed than most countries to deal with this, despite the population demographics and health care.

 

[FAITH]

I think the ID guys would have more of a clue than most, but it's very much calculated guess work.

Australia is better placed than most countries to deal with this, despite the population demographics and health care.

We're very blessed in Adelaide.

 

[Vhaluus]

I think the ID guys would have more of a clue than most, but it's very much calculated guess work.

Australia is better placed than most countries to deal with this, despite the population demographics and health care.

Agreed.

That being said one of the hardest things about doing any modelling at the moment is how hugely government policy could change it.

If we'd gone complete lockdown at the beginning of the week for example our trajectory would look very different from how it does at the moment. But the government might change it's policy again tomorrow.

Politicans are the one variable that is nearly impossible to estimate.

 

[hey shorty]

We're very blessed in Adelaide.

It has its downsides but I wouldnt want to live anywhere else

 

[FAITH]

It has its downsides but I wouldnt want to live anywhere else

Downsides?
2 Shite afl clubs, what else?

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Downsides?
2 Shite afl clubs, what else?

Sports teams are perennial chokers.

 

[GreyCrow]

I wouldnt mind a merger with Port

We use the AFC red gold blue colours and use the Adelaide from Port Adelaide

 

[hey shorty]

Downsides?
2 Shite afl clubs, what else?

Poor hospitals, average drivers.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

 

[FAITH]

Poor hospitals, average drivers.

Hospitals?
Compared to which countries?

 

[FAITH]

AFL has always had a bogan, incestual feel about it.
Probably because only half a country takes it seriously.

 

[Thetrader15]

I'm heading that way.

Overtaken tennis players as spoilt brats IMO

 

[Thetrader15]

I wouldnt mind a merger with Port

We use the AFC red gold blue colours and use the Adelaide from Port Adelaide

They can keep their coach and fans thanks

 

[cleanhands]

I wouldnt mind a merger with Port

We use the AFC red gold blue colours and use the Adelaide from Port Adelaide

150 year celebration

 

[GROTTO]

I wouldnt mind a merger with Port

We use the AFC red gold blue colours and use the Adelaide from Port Adelaide

Thats unfair its not enough. We should also play our home games at theirs as well and sing "Torn" before the opening bounce.

 

[GreyCrow]

Thats unfair its not enough. We should also play our home games at theirs as well and sing "Torn" before the opening bounce.

Sadly I have to agree about playing at their oval

But not sure about Torn, I hear there is an INXS song that some people like

Actually I wouldnt mind their Chairman.....

 

[cleanhands]

Sadly I have to agree about playing at their oval

But not sure about Torn, I hear there is an INXS song that some people like

Actually I wouldnt mind their Chairman.....

Play “now we can tear up the tarps”

 

[GROTTO]

Play “now we can tear up the tarps”

 

[Jack is Back]

We are absolutely testing for community transmission.

I spoke to a mate of mine today who lives in Adelaide and came down with the ”Flu” over the weekend. Since he also has asthma he saw a doctor today. He was told he could not be tested for Covid-19 because
1) He had not been overseas recently
2) He was not aware of having contact with a person who had recently returned from overseas.

The Australian definition of community transmission is a person who
1) Has not been overseas recently
2) Is not aware of any contact with a person who has recently returned from overseas.

Every case in Australia by its very definition will either be a person from overseas or from contact with a person who picked it up from overseas or someone who picked it up from the second, third or fourth person in the chain.

I appreciate that we can’t test every person in Australia at the moment but at the moment we are not picking up people further down the chain. There were 34 covid cases from a wedding on the NSW South Coast. It is assumed that the primary source was a person from overseas who flew in for the wedding. Under our definition these are not community transmissions even though four of the cases did not attend the wedding but had associated with one or more of the wedding guests.

NSW Health are now tracking down people who have had contact with the wedding guests but these people have already had contact with other people who have had contact with other people who had contact with other people....
This is how exponential growth occurs.

 

[Elite Crow]

I spoke to a mate of mine today who lives in Adelaide and came down with the ”Flu” over the weekend. Since he also has asthma he saw a doctor today. He was told he could not be tested for Covid-19 because
1) He had not been overseas recently
2) He was not aware of having contact with a person who had recently returned from overseas.

The Australian definition of community transmission is a person who
1) Has not been overseas recently
2) Is not aware of any contact with a person who has recently returned from overseas.

Every case in Australia by its very definition will either be a person from overseas or from contact with a person who picked it up from overseas or someone who picked it up from the second, third or fourth person in the chain.

I appreciate that we can’t test every person in Australia at the moment but at the moment we are not picking up people further down the chain. There were 34 covid cases from a wedding on the NSW South Coast. It is assumed that the primary source was a person from overseas who flew in for the wedding. Under our definition these are not community transmissions even though four of the cases did not attend the wedding but had associated with one or more of the wedding guests.

NSW Health are now tracking down people who have had contact with the wedding guests but these people have already had contact with other people who have had contact with other people who had contact with other people....
This is how exponential growth occurs.

That’s such bullshit.

Community transmission should be if you haven’t returned from overseas and you haven’t caught it from someone returning from overseas.

 

[Mutineer]

That’s such bullshit.

Community transmission should be if you haven’t returned from overseas and you haven’t caught it from someone returning from overseas.

There are new guidelines for testing passed tonight they just said on Sky, the reason it was restricted was because of the limit on test kits but as more are becoming available they are able to relax the testing guidelines somewhat.

 

[Jack is Back]

No criticism of the testing policy, it makes perfect sense to test (and subsequently follow up) people more likely to be infected. My concern is the trumpeting by our health authorities that there has been very little community transmission.

I don’t know how many people have entered Australia in the last month but in 2018/19 there were 9.3 million short term visitors/tourists plus more than 10 million Australian returning from O/S. So conservatively there has been at least a million people hitting our shores in the last month and then moving around Australia. Even if a tiny fraction of these people were asymptomatic carriers, they have been shaking hands with people all over the place.

It gives me very little comfort that “there have been very few community transmissions” according to our health authorities, based on modelling from other countries we will have 30,000+ cases in two weeks time.I really hope the modelling is wrong.

 

[hey shorty]

Hospitals?
Compared to which countries?

I meant in terms of our country, compared to most of the world we are flying.

 

[FR0GGY]

No criticism of the testing policy, it makes perfect sense to test (and subsequently follow up) people more likely to be infected. My concern is the trumpeting by our health authorities that there has been very little community transmission.

I don’t know how many people have entered Australia in the last month but in 2018/19 there were 9.3 million short term visitors/tourists plus more than 10 million Australian returning from O/S. So conservatively there has been at least a million people hitting our shores in the last month and then moving around Australia. Even if a tiny fraction of these people were asymptomatic carriers, they have been shaking hands with people all over the place.

It gives me very little comfort that “there have been very few community transmissions” according to our health authorities, based on modelling from other countries we will have 30,000+ cases in two weeks time.I really hope the modelling is wrong.

You can get tested if you’ve come from interstate.
My wife got tested yesterday at flinders.