2020 Non-Crows AFL Discussion

[jackster83]

Hopefully we can keep it that way.

Isolation and hygiene the only way to do it.

Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

Isolation it is then.

 

[jenny61_99]

I’m a practising optimist as you know. Between Missus and I, we know of only 1 person who is presently crook in any way at all. Your experience among the people that you know may be different, but apart from these confirmed cases, I’m not aware of any anecdotal evidence suggesting that there’s uncounted enormous numbers of ill people across the country. Of course, all the people I know are in SA and NT, neither state having recorded a confirmed community transmission yet.

Yesterday we had 2 people critically ill. Today there are 16. This will unfortunately climb exponentially as the infection rate does. According to figures I’ve seen, there has been community transmission. I don’t know who keeps reporting that there is no community transmission. There is plenty we know of and plenty more we don’t. You’ve been reading in here of people suffering symptoms and turned away from testing. There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence out there if you look.

 

[1970crow]

Yesterday we had 2 people critically ill. Today there are 16. This will unfortunately climb exponentially as the infection rate does. According to figures I’ve seen, there has been community transmission. I don’t know who keeps reporting that there is no community transmission. There is plenty we know of and plenty more we don’t. You’ve been reading in here of people suffering symptoms and turned away from testing. There’s plenty of anecdotal evidence out there if you look.

I mentioned only 2 states that hadn’t had any community transmission. Noting SA no longer in that boat. Just breath and read.

 

[jenny61_99]

I mentioned only 2 states that hadn’t had any community transmission. Noting SA no longer in that boat. Just breath and read.

I know that’s what you said and appreciate that’s what has been reported. But if there is community transmission here, it’s everywhere. This virus is unbelievably contagious.

 

[mistylake]

ArcGIS Dashboards

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www.arcgis.com

we have exponential growth (our number of infections is doubling about every 2.5 days currently)

https://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/03/covid-19-cases-in-australia-by-state-and-source-of-transmission-covid-19-cases-in-australia-by-state-and-source-of-transmission_3.png

we have community transmission

stop listening to 'experts' and start listening to experts. So stop listening to politicians and radio shock jocks and start listening to scientists and doctors.

Some experts I guess aren’t quite so expert then. And the doctors don’t know shit in that case. Who to trust hmmm. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Jack is Back]

I mentioned only 2 states that hadn’t had any community transmission. Noting SA no longer in that boat. Just breath and read.

We have not been testing for community transmission.

The testing shows there is no evidence of community transmission.

Hmmm does anyone see a problem here?

What do you call it when the virus races through a cruise ship. Are there mass orgies on these cruises (possibly, perhaps Vader can inform us) or is it due to people sharing spaces (restaurants), sneezing, touching door knobs? Sounds like community transmission to me.

There are now 2,136 X ??? people in Australia who have been carrying covid 19 on planes, train, buses, sitting in restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffee shops, gyms, work places, schools, sporting events. I am pretty confident that we will discover a butt load of community transmissions in the next few weeks.

 

[hey shorty]

We have not been testing for community transmission.

The testing shows there is no evidence of community transmission.

Hmmm does anyone see a problem here?

What do you call it when the virus races through a cruise ship. Are there mass orgies on these cruises (possibly, perhaps Vader can inform us) or is it due to people sharing spaces (restaurants), sneezing, touching door knobs? Sounds like community transmission to me.

There are now 2,136 X ??? people in Australia who have been carrying covid 19 on planes, train, buses, sitting in restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffee shops, gyms, work places, schools, sporting events. I am pretty confident that we will discover a butt load of community transmissions in the next few weeks.

Next few days I'd say.

 

[FAITH]

I haven’t read that but saw him on footy classified last night, he chose to stay in Melbourne and work rather than go home to his family.

Weird hey.

 

[SaltPeter]

We have not been testing for community transmission.

The testing shows there is no evidence of community transmission.

Hmmm does anyone see a problem here?

What do you call it when the virus races through a cruise ship. Are there mass orgies on these cruises (possibly, perhaps Vader can inform us) or is it due to people sharing spaces (restaurants), sneezing, touching door knobs? Sounds like community transmission to me.

There are now 2,136 X ??? people in Australia who have been carrying covid 19 on planes, train, buses, sitting in restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffee shops, gyms, work places, schools, sporting events. I am pretty confident that we will discover a butt load of community transmissions in the next few weeks.

Recirculated air through the cabins.

Aircraft have air recirculation systems similar to hospital theatres. Cruise ships just recirculate the same dirty air

 

[GrommoT]

Recirculated air through the cabins.

Aircraft have air recirculation systems similar to hospital theatres. Cruise ships just recirculate the same dirty air

Don't be complacent re. aircraft and their filtered air recirculation systems...

In this paper we concentrate on droplet transmission, which occurs via respiratory droplets (≥5 microns) propelled short distances (mostly ≤ 1 meter) when an infectious traveler sneezes, coughs, talks, or breathes.19, 20, 21 Droplets are sufficiently large to be largely impervious to cabin airflow. Direct transmission occurs when pathogen-containing droplets fall onto a susceptible traveler’s conjunctiva or mucosa or are inhaled. ...
[ On the 2-Row Rule for Infectious Disease Transmission on Aircraft ]
[ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214999616307421 ]

 

[SaltPeter]

Don't be complacent re. aircraft and their filtered air recirculation systems...

In this paper we concentrate on droplet transmission, which occurs via respiratory droplets (≥5 microns) propelled short distances (mostly ≤ 1 meter) when an infectious traveler sneezes, coughs, talks, or breathes.19, 20, 21 Droplets are sufficiently large to be largely impervious to cabin airflow. Direct transmission occurs when pathogen-containing droplets fall onto a susceptible traveler’s conjunctiva or mucosa or are inhaled. ...
[ On the 2-Row Rule for Infectious Disease Transmission on Aircraft ]
[ https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214999616307421 ]

Trust me, I have no intention of getting on a plane anytime soon.

The point I was trying to make was that passengers on cruise ships, while isolated in their cabins were still dropping like flies.

Perhaps if isolated in their cabins with air circulation systems similar to aircraft the spread of the virus may have been better contained?

 

[GrommoT]

... Perhaps if isolated in their cabins with air circulation systems similar to aircraft the spread of the virus may have been better contained?

Most likely. But such systems are likely pretty expensive for dealing with a problem that sadly cruise operators and their punters probably wouldn't think about.

 

[SaltPeter]

Most likely. But such systems are likely pretty expensive for dealing with a problem that sadly cruise operators and their punters probably wouldn't think about.

I was really answering a post asking why the virus infected so many people on the cruise ships.

I don’t think the wrong decision was made to allow all the passengers to disembark. I think the problem is how it was managed.

 

[1970crow]

We have not been testing for community transmission.

The testing shows there is no evidence of community transmission.

Hmmm does anyone see a problem here?

What do you call it when the virus races through a cruise ship. Are there mass orgies on these cruises (possibly, perhaps Vader can inform us) or is it due to people sharing spaces (restaurants), sneezing, touching door knobs? Sounds like community transmission to me.

There are now 2,136 X ??? people in Australia who have been carrying covid 19 on planes, train, buses, sitting in restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffee shops, gyms, work places, schools, sporting events. I am pretty confident that we will discover a butt load of community transmissions in the next few weeks.

It’s not really mass infections though is it. Apart from a couple that had well reported poor practices once it looked like there was an issue, most cruises seem to have surprisingly low confirmed cases given the numbers on board and the nature of the cruise itself. I think you’re being a tad hysterical.

 

[Vhaluus]

We have not been testing for community transmission.

The testing shows there is no evidence of community transmission.

Hmmm does anyone see a problem here?

What do you call it when the virus races through a cruise ship. Are there mass orgies on these cruises (possibly, perhaps Vader can inform us) or is it due to people sharing spaces (restaurants), sneezing, touching door knobs? Sounds like community transmission to me.

There are now 2,136 X ??? people in Australia who have been carrying covid 19 on planes, train, buses, sitting in restaurants, pubs, clubs, coffee shops, gyms, work places, schools, sporting events. I am pretty confident that we will discover a butt load of community transmissions in the next few weeks.

We are absolutely testing for community transmission.

Anyone who has been identified as being in close contact with a confirmed case is being tested, symptomatic or not.

Please don't spread misinformation in a time of global crisis.

Eventually we will get to a point where that sort of contact tracing isn't feasible, but we aren't there yet.

 

[FR0GGY]

We are absolutely testing for community transmission.

Anyone who has been identified as being in close contact with a confirmed case is being tested, symptomatic or not.

Please don't spread misinformation in a time of global crisis.

No contact with us after being on a plane with confirmed cases.
We rang the hotline to tell them that we sat with and behind 2 ruby princess people from Sydney to Adelaide last Thursday (no idea if they have been tested since) and they didn’t want to know. Just said stay home and look after yourself.

 

[Vhaluus]

No contact with us after being on a plane with confirmed cases.
We rang the hotline to tell them that we sat with and behind 2 ruby princess people from Sydney to Adelaide last Thursday (no idea if they have been tested since) and they didn’t want to know. Just said stay home and look after yourself.

That's dissapointing to hear tbh. I work in a different state and everyone knows how each state likes to do things a bit different, but I was given to understand that all states were proactively persuing contact tracing and testing still.

 

[Jack is Back]

We are absolutely testing for community transmission.

Anyone who has been identified as being in close contact with a confirmed case is being tested, symptomatic or not.

According to the World Health Organisation
“Put simply, Community Transmission in say Ireland means a person who contracts Covid-19 in Ireland and they have not been to any of the Covid-19 affected areas overseas like China, Italy and Iran”

Most of the currently identified Covid-19 cases in Australia have travelled overseas. Interestly most of these cases have been from people travelling from the USA and Italy, not China as you might expect. All the remaining cases are community transmission according to the WHO (unless there has been another Covid-19 mutant formed in the wet markets of Manly).

Currently almost all of these “community transmissions” can be traced back to people coming from overseas. There were a heap of community transmissions from a wedding and similarly from the Sydney Uni Rugby Union piss up. Now prior to these people realising they had made contact with a person with Covid-19, these people went to the pubs, clubs, footy, etc. We will see the fruits of their labour in the next two weeks.

Then there are all the people returning from cruises who jumped on a plane, past the food tray to the person next to them and breathed Covid-19 droplets into the air.

I said a week ago that we were only a week behind the UK and less than three weeks behind the USA. Now we have stopped people entering Australia I guess we should expect the number of cases to start reducing since we have no “community transmission”.

 

[hey shorty]

According to the World Health Organisation
“Put simply, Community Transmission in say Ireland means a person who contracts Covid-19 in Ireland and they have not been to any of the Covid-19 affected areas overseas like China, Italy and Iran”

Most of the currently identified Covid-19 cases in Australia have travelled overseas. Interestly most of these cases have been from people travelling from the USA and Italy, not China as you might expect. All the remaining cases are community transmission according to the WHO (unless there has been another Covid-19 mutant formed in the wet markets of Manly).

Currently almost all of these “community transmissions” can be traced back to people coming from overseas. There were a heap of community transmissions from a wedding and similarly from the Sydney Uni Rugby Union piss up. Now prior to these people realising they had made contact with a person with Covid-19, these people went to the pubs, clubs, footy, etc. We will see the fruits of their labour in the next two weeks.

Then there are all the people returning from cruises who jumped on a plane, past the food tray to the person next to them and breathed Covid-19 droplets into the air.

I said a week ago that we were only a week behind the UK and less than three weeks behind the USA. Now we have stopped people entering Australia I guess we should expect the number of cases to start reducing since we have no “community transmission”.

Yeah we do, and no it wont reduce

 

[crows dude]

My wife has spoken to my sister in law who is high up with Genisis Care in Sydney. Shes spoken to Dr's that work for her. They expect this to peak mid April but start to slow down after that.

 

[hey shorty]

My wife has spoken to my sister in law who is high up with Genisis Care in Sydney. Shes spoken to Dr's that work for her. They expect this to peak mid April but start to slow down after that.

Its funny, the infectious disease guys I speak to say that late May/early June would be our peak.

Everyone has a different opinion.

 

[arrowman]

Its funny, the infectious disease guys I speak to say that late May/early June would be our peak.

Everyone has a different opinion.

No link, but I've been shown a piece from the Advertiser that says

And new modelling has revealed that the outbreak could be under control in Australia by the first week of July if we adopt strict social distancing measures.

Can't get to the source, paywalled.

But it seems to me that anywhere from mid May to mid July would be reasonable guesstimates, all going well. I doubt anyone can be more accurate than that. No need to be hopelessly optimistic, but hopefully we'll start to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[hey shorty]

July seems reasonable

 

[Mutineer]

We are absolutely testing for community transmission.

Anyone who has been identified as being in close contact with a confirmed case is being tested, symptomatic or not.

Please don't spread misinformation in a time of global crisis.

Eventually we will get to a point where that sort of contact tracing isn't feasible, but we aren't there yet.

Happening already locally at the Bendigo Hospital that I know of with 1 in 5 people reporting to their ED being tested even if asymptomatic to Covid-19 symptoms.

 

[FAITH]

Its funny, the infectious disease guys I speak to say that late May/early June would be our peak.

Everyone has a different opinion.

no one has a clue imo, they are all talking out of their backside.