2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

[Spider Klein]

Looking for that sub 2% POD. I know they a a POD for a reason but I love having 1. It has had mixed results in the past.

Any love for Sidebottom or Rockliff this year. Looks like Ebert has that forward role given to him permanently which may mean more Rocky in the middle this year if he stays fit. Sidebottom just in a fantasy friendly team and always scores solidly.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Sidebottom a tag target.

Rocky is insanely high risk for ok reward. Didn't show enough in the first marsh to get me excited. Hasn't played 22games in a year in 7 years ie he WILL miss games so if you're locking him in from R1 you'll need to cover for him at some point with a rookie bench.

He's only averaged 101.22 in the past 5 years so his lows more than nullify his highs.

None of the numbers stack up high enough at this point. Needs a monster 2nd Marsh game to get me revved up now.

 

[TheRednWhite]

Looking for that sub 2% POD. I know they a a POD for a reason but I love having 1. It has had mixed results in the past.

Any love for Sidebottom or Rockliff this year. Looks like Ebert has that forward role given to him permanently which may mean more Rocky in the middle this year if he stays fit. Sidebottom just in a fantasy friendly team and always scores solidly.

I was big on Rocky but that Marsh game was so underwhelming. Although you don't expect a pig to try so hard in a preseason game. Everything changes if he drops a 150 in the second Marsh game though, I'm hoping it doesn't happen because I'm starting to get settled with my current side

 

[Piker]

Looking for that sub 2% POD. I know they a a POD for a reason but I love having 1. It has had mixed results in the past.

Any love for Sidebottom or Rockliff this year. Looks like Ebert has that forward role given to him permanently which may mean more Rocky in the middle this year if he stays fit. Sidebottom just in a fantasy friendly team and always scores solidly.

IIRC, there was a post upthread from someone who had some involvement in Rocky's shoulder surgery, to the effect that a) it was about as major a surgery as you can get, and b) long-term, people usually don't make a full recovery from that kind of surgery.

NFI how credible the post was, but it certainly aligns with what we saw in the game.

I'm staying well clear. There are better risk/reward options around that bracket.

 

[Spider Klein]

Sidebottom a tag target.

Rocky is insanely high risk for ok reward. Didn't show enough in the first marsh to get me excited. Hasn't played 22games in a year in 7 years ie he WILL miss games so if you're locking him in from R1 you'll need to cover for him at some point with a rookie bench.

He's only averaged 101.22 in the past 5 years so his lows more than nullify his highs.

None of the numbers stack up high enough at this point. Needs a monster 2nd Marsh game to get me revved up now.

Yeah all these reasons make a lot of sense. I guess looking for a really low owned option is tough. Espescially given u look around that price point often someone jumps out. Just something about having a 1% ownership guy makes things more interesting. Frustrating playing 22 v 22 and its basically 4 v 4 and maybe a captain choice.

Sidebottom and Rocky have done it in the past. Hunter, Zorko, Yeo others very lowly owned that have scored well in the past. Hmmm will have to see if the risk is worth it.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Yeah all these reasons make a lot of sense. I guess looking for a really low owned option is tough. Espescially given u look around that price point often someone jumps out. Just something about having a 1% ownership guy makes things more interesting. Frustrating playing 22 v 22 and its basically 4 v 4 and maybe a captain choice.

Sidebottom and Rocky have done it in the past. Hunter, Zorko, Yeo others very lowly owned that have scored well in the past. Hmmm will have to see if the risk is worth it.

Yep i think 1 or 2 PODs is a good thing but not many more than that or risk will outweigh reward.

 

[Thetrader15]

IIRC, there was a post upthread from someone who had some involvement in Rocky's shoulder surgery, to the effect that a) it was about as major a surgery as you can get, and b) long-term, people usually don't make a full recovery from that kind of surgery.

NFI how credible the post was, but it certainly aligns with what we saw in the game.

I'm staying well clear. There are better risk/reward options around that bracket.

IIRC, "someone's mum worked for the surgeon"

 

[TedDougChris]

Looking for that sub 2% POD. I know they a a POD for a reason but I love having 1. It has had mixed results in the past.

Any love for Sidebottom or Rockliff this year. Looks like Ebert has that forward role given to him permanently which may mean more Rocky in the middle this year if he stays fit. Sidebottom just in a fantasy friendly team and always scores solidly.

Pendles ??

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Yep i think 1 or 2 PODs is a good thing but not many more than that or risk will outweigh reward.

Oops I need to drink my own medicine. Just checked and I've got 7 players < 10% in my starting lineup.

 

[Spider Klein]

Pendles ??

Probably doesnt get the credit he deserves in the last few years. I keep expecting him to drop and he doesn't.

 

[Thetrader15]

Looking for that sub 2% POD. I know they a a POD for a reason but I love having 1. It has had mixed results in the past.

Any love for Sidebottom or Rockliff this year. Looks like Ebert has that forward role given to him permanently which may mean more Rocky in the middle this year if he stays fit. Sidebottom just in a fantasy friendly team and always scores solidly.

There's a few options with <1%

Dayne Beams - a great performer, really consistent...but...
Menagola - 'more midfield time' label
Henderson - not a tag target, worse options
Marc Murphy - solid 100 man
JPK - good 2nd half of 2019
Fiorini - not a bad POD, but JS is a concern for me
Jack Steele - lots of talk, but still low ownership
Billings, Lyons, Duncan, Boak, Sloane, Mouch, Pendles, Ross, Yo-yo...

Good luck.
If I had to pick 2, I'd look at Matt Crouch and Lyons (just for something different)

 

[Spider Klein]

There's a few options with <1%

Dayne Beams - a great performer, really consistent...but...
Menagola - 'more midfield time' label
Henderson - not a tag target, worse options
Marc Murphy - solid 100 man
JPK - good 2nd half of 2019
Fiorini - not a bad POD, but JS is a concern for me
Jack Steele - lots of talk, but still low ownership
Billings, Lyons, Duncan, Boak, Sloane, Mouch, Pendles, Ross, Yo-yo...

Good luck.
If I had to pick 2, I'd look at Matt Crouch and Lyons (just for something different)

Yeh there are a few there.

I have Ross

Beams, Menegola, JPK and Murphy don't really interest me.
Fiorini burned me last year and his role changed mid season. Sloane burned me a few seasons ago with the gun start > bring in > injury > trade out > gun return and price drop from injury game > bring back in > injury combo. Cant do it
Duncan i really like but at the higher end of the price range.

Others all in the mix as a smoky choice. Purely for my interest in the season.

 

[staffa002]

I was looking at him, but am steering clear ATM. Port are a risk of playing Ladhams at least in some games, and check out Lycett's first 6 weeks, they are pretty tough.
View attachment 829837
However, if you are one to take a risk (and seeing as you aren't going Grundy, you clearly are), then rock on with Lycett!

Thanks. Never even heard of this ladham and i will defiantely keep on eye out for him now. U might think its a risk but man over last 4 years everytime a player was over 900k its never gone well and they were also cant miss and safer than even grundy. Tichell got there, macrae , shaw , whitfield and soon as they got to that magic mark all stumbled a bit. I do plan on getting him but i am sure his price will drop a good 50-70k and thats when i will grab. First game against the doggies is my only concern as he will eat them alive. I am looking for value and when lycett was sole ruckman last year he banged out 95+ average easily regardless of his counterpart

 

[Dan12]

Lyons and Rowbottom my <1% guys. I'm not super confident though.

 

[JDWCE]

Looking for that sub 2% POD. I know they a a POD for a reason but I love having 1. It has had mixed results in the past.

Any love for Sidebottom or Rockliff this year. Looks like Ebert has that forward role given to him permanently which may mean more Rocky in the middle this year if he stays fit. Sidebottom just in a fantasy friendly team and always scores solidly.

Sidey isn't the worst option, look at his history - games played;average for the year

2012​	21​	104.7​
2013​	22​	96.5​
2014​	19​	108.1​
2015​	16​	102.0​
2016​	20​	103.3​
2017​	22​	105.8​
2018​	22​	103.4​
2019​	21​	98.5​

What that shows me is that he had a down year last year. No 1 tag target for sure. Adams coming back into the side (as he missed a lot of last year) could help alleviate pressure of the tag week in week out if he gets back to the old Adams as he will cop attention every now and then. Although big if I guess. No Beams as well. More ball for pies mids maybe?

Just spitballing but durable as all hell so is always going to be a solid option.

Also under 2% worth consideration:
Sloane
Berry - breakout contender
Lyons
M Murphy
Menagola - unsure on his role
JOM - I'm big on him this year but can't fit him in my side
Steele - also should improve
JPK - age is a worry
L Hunter - very outside

 

[Dan12]

Is anyone else really tempted by Brad Crouch? If he wasn't so injury prone he'd be a lock for me.

 

[staffa002]

Could big stef martin be an option? Started the year very slowly due to no pre season. Is on the wrong side of 30 (33 this year I think) but averaged 94 after the byes last year. Not the worst left field option

Also this is his last 6 years of footy - games played ; total average

2014​	12​	112.2​
2015​	20​	114.0​
2016​	20​	89.0​
2017​	22​	99.8​
2018​	22​	101.3​
2019​	22​	84.8​

Stef is getting too old and has burned me way way too many times. Anyone know a place we can see lycetts fantasy score round by round. Would love to compare how he fared against the big dogs while bei g sole ruckman.

 

[Thetrader15]

Thanks. Never even heard of this ladham and i will defiantely keep on eye out for him now. U might think its a risk but man over last 4 years everytime a player was over 900k its never gone well and they were also cant miss and safer than even grundy. Tichell got there, macrae , shaw , whitfield and soon as they got to that magic mark all stumbled a bit. I do plan on getting him but i am sure his price will drop a good 50-70k and thats when i will grab. First game against the doggies is my only concern as he will eat them alive. I am looking for value and when lycett was sole ruckman last year he banged out 95+ average easily regardless of his counterpart

I agree Grundy is maxed on price, I'm just keeping him so I have a captain option each week

 

[staffa002]

I agree Grundy is maxed on price, I'm just keeping him so I have a captain option each week

Against the dogs dont blame you. Has there ever been a time when a player got to 900k and stated there for a while. Seems like number is cursed. Its when they usually start getting injured lol.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

There's a few options with <1%

Dayne Beams - a great performer, really consistent...but...
Menagola - 'more midfield time' label
Henderson - not a tag target, worse options
Marc Murphy - solid 100 man
JPK - good 2nd half of 2019
Fiorini - not a bad POD, but JS is a concern for me
Jack Steele - lots of talk, but still low ownership
Billings, Lyons, Duncan, Boak, Sloane, Mouch, Pendles, Ross, Yo-yo...

Good luck.
If I had to pick 2, I'd look at Matt Crouch and Lyons (just for something different)

Ummm isn’t beams retiring?

 

[staffa002]

Ummm isn’t beams retiring?

Not 100% yet but looks like he will be due to mental issues and crash. Just not confirmed 100%

 

[Dupogi]

I hate to say this due to risking a "POD" option I've been keeping in the options bag..... but lets be honest, it'll be plain as day anyway if he has a good Marsh.

..............Tim Kelly gents.

Lets look at the list:
- Played 22 games in both of his two years in the system. TICK;
- His 87avg improved to 97avg in his 2nd year. Is there upside in that? TICK;
- Geelongs ruckman are/were aweful. Service will be infinitely better at the Eagles TICK;
- His 2019 scores also featured some time being rotated forward and a few quiet sub 60's. His role at the Eagles is without question and his only position on the ground other than the engine room is the bench to have a break. TICK;
- Priced at $719k and not alot more than an injury prone unknown in Taylor Adams. TICK;
- POD. TICK;
- Gaff/Shuey and the Eagles in general love link up play. The back and forth handballs will be flowing. TICK;
- Solid Preseason. TICK.

Lets not forget he dominated at the Cats despite having external pressure from the media/geelong/eagles for a contract and also internal stress from his family living away from their support base.

Personally I think he's unleashed this year and he's EASILY got 10ppg upside in him.

Im on Kelly for the Brownlow

 

[TedDougChris]

Im on Kelly for the Brownlow

Just on Kelly - statistically, WCE have had a fair run with the umpires (so have my side lately) in the West for a long time. There is potential for him to increase his scoring just due to this factor alone....

 

[DynamiteDons]

With each press snippet that comes out of GWS, makes me more anxious about the whole Jacobs situation. Thinking I may just restructure and get a better ruckman in so I’m not worrying about his selection each week.

Thoughts on the Jacobs situation?

 

[Thetrader15]

Im on Kelly for the Brownlow

Wasted money. His votes will drop 10% due to relocation. He was a Geelong poster boy and umps love that.

Check Dangerfield's votes increase after he went to Geleong, gained another 5 or so per year, and had very similar years in terms of output and wins