2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

[happy_eagle]

Anyone else working from home tomorrow

 

[samFFC]

Shit, just realised (duh) that there's less than 24hrs left til unlimited trades gone.
Not that we haven't been waiting for this point but I better give my team one last going over.

got til Friday night?

 

[Cotchy9]

Hmm. Very interesting 24 hours ahead.

With Green named I'm tempted to go with a 4-0-4 setup in the midfield now...

I’ve gone this way. Allows me to have just 1 rookie in Defence and 1 up forward

 

[Rendaw]

Hmm. Very interesting 24 hours ahead.

With Green named I'm tempted to go with a 4-0-4 setup in the midfield now...

If Green has been told then Ash should have been told too...

 

[Butterz]

got til Friday night?

Panic has set in

 

[JADED]

Don't know what I'm doing with my side now.
Gone
English & Oliver to Naitanui & Dunkley.

 

[Quokka]

Less time for English to tire .

 

[Benjo_]

Not a mathematician but I think a lot of factors go into the BE formula for price changes. I believe that someone priced over 800k won't drop significantly in price or drop at all if they only score 100, if it's one of the largest scores of the week. We definitely need some clarity on this from Fanhub before the season starts!

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

I’m going all out, might as well have some fun

In- Naitanui and Martin
Out- Grundy

 

[VSTone]

valid point made on the plus 6 podcast...re- outside best 18 rookies priced players as they might not get as much game time with the reduced minutes and hence score proportionally less, making them less value creating ... will game styles change too? so many ifs and buts right now.
crystal ball stuff.

 

[Thetrader15]

Anyone else working from home tomorrow

I'd suggest most of us...well those with jobs left

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Not a mathematician but I think a lot of factors go into the BE formula for price changes. I believe that someone priced over 800k won't drop significantly in price or drop at all if they only score 100, if it's one of the largest scores of the week. We definitely need some clarity on this from Fanhub before the season starts!

Warnie on the Traders podcast the other day mentioned that BE is actually just an indication and that the actual formula is dependent upon a proportion of the total points scored by all players across the entire round. Its just that the BE is usally an accurate indicator because total points across 9 games of footy with almost 400 players is generally pretty standard.

So Grundy's BE of 122 is not actually 122 but merely [X]% of the total points scored in a round.

Accordingly, it should, fingers crossed, not impact those players to much.

But there is always the fact that the more time in the game the more time there is for players to score points, so everyone could come back to the mean a lot more, with the random breakout or explosion in scoring in 10 minute burts having a bigger impact given there is less time for consistent players to claw that back.

So many things to think about.

 

[Isthisnametaken]

Just thinking out loud here ...
Do players with limited preseasons and/or player that don't quite have the tank to be full midfielders suddenly come into consideration? Thinking Ziebell for the former and Rayner for the later example.
Or if they don't adjust the formula regarding shorter game times, should I pick a bunch of players no more than 300k. Hope like hell their price stays that same and the 170Kers go up and pounce on the premiums when they inevitably fail to reach their normal 20min/quarter scores?

 

[Beau_Waters for PM]

Question is, are the higher PPM players now more attractive?
Or are they always destined to have the same TOG% no matter how long the games, because relatively speaking they have lower fitness/capacity?

The players with historically low TOG may also find it challenging if the games schedule is thrown out of whack with some shorter turnaround games etc.

Hard to know which way it will fall.

 

[VSTone]

Just thinking out loud here ...
Do players with limited preseasons and/or player that don't quite have the tank to be full midfielders suddenly come into consideration? Thinking Ziebell for the former and Rayner for the later example.
Or if they don't adjust the formula regarding shorter game times, should I pick a bunch of players no more than 300k. Hope like hell their price stays that same and the 170Kers go up and pounce on the premiums when they inevitably fail to reach their normal 20min/quarter scores?

that's the biggy right now... if we don't know by lockout then being flexible might be the key to changing structure quickly? We will need to minimise the damage of the advantage those coaches with the good crystal balls might get? if the price changes do end up being significant one way or the other then the season might be blown out of the water in the first 3 rounds for coaches who misread the tea leaves. I hope we get some guidance.

 

[VSTone]

Question is, are the higher PPM players now more attractive?
Or are they always destined to have the same TOG% no matter how long the games, because relatively speaking they have lower fitness/capacity?

The players with historically low TOG may also find it challenging if the games schedule is thrown out of whack with some shorter turnaround games etc.

Hard to know which way it will fall.

I'm certainly favoring best 18 type players.

 

[freo_leo29]

Sturt named to debut

 

[YippeeYiYeo]

shit now im slightly panicking.

Sturt is debuting. No mention of Watson who was my D7.

If the AFL plays 5 rounds in 3 weeks, will older players be rested? Im shook!

 

[freo_leo29]

shit now im slightly panicking.

Sturt is debuting. No mention of Watson who was my D7.

If the AFL plays 5 rounds in 3 weeks, will older players be rested? Im shook!

Watson won't make the cut unfortunately

Aish is named to debut for Freo too, I expect Ryan to slot back into the team, trained today.

Longy said that a lot of players coming off impressive pre seasons will miss, probably targeted at the Watson, Crowden possibly Bewley types

Source: https://www.fremantlefc.com.au/news/578110/sturt-in-line-for-debut-as-longmuir-praises-depth

 

[Fitzey]

shit now im slightly panicking.

Sturt is debuting. No mention of Watson who was my D7.

If the AFL plays 5 rounds in 3 weeks, will older players be rested? Im shook!

I’m just rolling in with the side I has after the marsh and just adjusting rookies, no point stressing, it’s to hard now.

 

[Butterz]

Some high PPM stats from last year for people to consider:

Adam Treloar: 141 per 100% game time (22 games)
Matt Crouch: 141 per 100% game time (19 games)
Zach Merrett: 140 per 100% game time (22 games)
Dan Hannebery: 140 per 100% game time (5 Games)
Nic Naitanui: 139 per 100% game time (3 games)
Brodie Grundy: 139 per 100% game time (22 games)
Brad Crouch: 137 per 100% game time (22 games)
Josh Kelly: 136 per 100% game time (14 games)
Jackson Macrae: 136 per 100% game time (22 games)
Lachie Whitfield: 127 per 100% game time (16 games)
Max Gawn: 130 per 100% game time (21 games)
Andrew Gaff: 129 per 100% game time (20 games)
Taylor Adams: 125 per 100% game time (10 games)
Dylan Shiel: 125 per 100% game time (21 games)
Jarryd Lyons: 122 per 100% game time (22 games)
Jacob Hopper: 120 per 100% game time (19 games)


A mix of uber premiums and maybe some value picks who could really benefit from the shortened games.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Whoever wins this year deserves two cars, or even three

Wonder what the gf tickets will be changed to now that it appears they’ll be behind closed doors.

 

[Anzac16]

Some high PPM stats from last year for people to consider:

Adam Treloar: 141 per 100% game time (22 games)
Matt Crouch: 141 per 100% game time (19 games)
Zach Merrett: 140 per 100% game time (22 games)
Dan Hannebery: 140 per 100% game time (5 Games)
Nic Naitanui: 139 per 100% game time (3 games)
Brodie Grundy: 139 per 100% game time (22 games)
Brad Crouch: 137 per 100% game time (22 games)
Josh Kelly: 136 per 100% game time (14 games)
Jackson Macrae: 136 per 100% game time (22 games)
Lachie Whitfield: 127 per 100% game time (16 games)
Max Gawn: 130 per 100% game time (21 games)
Andrew Gaff: 129 per 100% game time (20 games)
Taylor Adams: 125 per 100% game time (10 games)
Dylan Shiel: 125 per 100% game time (21 games)
Jarryd Lyons: 122 per 100% game time (22 games)
Jacob Hopper: 120 per 100% game time (19 games)


A mix of uber premiums and maybe some value picks who could really benefit from the shortened games.

Hopper quite tempting with that.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Some high PPM stats from last year for people to consider:

Adam Treloar: 141 per 100% game time (22 games)
Matt Crouch: 141 per 100% game time (19 games)
Zach Merrett: 140 per 100% game time (22 games)
Dan Hannebery: 140 per 100% game time (5 Games)
Nic Naitanui: 139 per 100% game time (3 games)
Brodie Grundy: 139 per 100% game time (22 games)
Brad Crouch: 137 per 100% game time (22 games)
Josh Kelly: 136 per 100% game time (14 games)
Jackson Macrae: 136 per 100% game time (22 games)
Lachie Whitfield: 127 per 100% game time (16 games)
Max Gawn: 130 per 100% game time (21 games)
Andrew Gaff: 129 per 100% game time (20 games)
Taylor Adams: 125 per 100% game time (10 games)
Dylan Shiel: 125 per 100% game time (21 games)
Jarryd Lyons: 122 per 100% game time (22 games)
Jacob Hopper: 120 per 100% game time (19 games)


A mix of uber premiums and maybe some value picks who could really benefit from the shortened games.

Where did you find this info? Is there a way to get data from 2018?

 

[Butterz]

I'm currently sitting with quite a few rooks on field, although I think a major concern could be if we come back from a mid season break and a huge chunk of rookies are dropped and our team is destroyed. Obviously at this point no one really knows which strategy will reign supreme, I feel as though I need a guns and rooks team and a mid priced madness team.