2020- reflecting on expectations

[Willo90]

Hi passionate Dogs fans,

I hope we’re all doing safe and well. Long time reader…minimal poster. Like most, I was the most frustrated I’ve been after a loss in ages, even though there was still an inevitable sense of dread when leading by 6 goals at quarter time.

Hence, I’ve been reflecting: have my expectations of this season been too high, and does our MC see us as a developing team, or a contending team? Judging by the tone and reactions on this forum, most of us supporters probably see this season as winnable; the competition is incredibly even, we have a superstar midfield and premiership players across every line. Hence, when we lose games like last night and reflect on this season, our first reaction is that we are grossly under-performing to expectations.

However, it’s my contention that the coaching staff still see our team as developing. Quote Bevo at the season launch, along the lines of ‘we thought we were closer than we are’ when reflecting on 2019 and other quotes this season, (paraphrasing) remarking that ‘we’re trying to compete against the contenders’. As supporters with high expectations in an even season we can debate whether this is the right approach. It also prompts the following questions being asked repeatedly in Autopsy threads after each frustrating loss:

• Why are we still developing when we won a flag with a young list only 4 years ago?
• Why have changed our game style so dramatically since 216?
• Are we throwing away the golden years of our midfield stars?
• How do we keep getting younger; why do we keep getting younger?!?
• Why do we persist with an incredibly left-field ruck strategy which undermines our midfield advantage?!?!?

I have 4 key hypothesises that seek to answer these questions, and why our club feels like it is still in development mode. If you have the time to read though, I'd love your thoughts and reflections too!

Hypothesis 1: I have grossly underestimated the impact key players had in winning the Preliminary Final and Grand Final. While we had a great midfield, our forwards and backs had phenomenal impacts:

• Firstly: Offensively, we kicked 26 goals over both wonderfully magical games. 5 players contributed 2+ goals over both games: Dicko with 7, 5 to Clay, 3 each to Tom Boyd, Picko, Zaine and 1 each to Bont, Jacko, Toby, Caleb and ‘the Package.’ Of those 26 goals, only 3 goals came from players who are still on our list, in their prime and still playing centre/forward (Bont, Jacko, Toby); 4 goals came from Zaine and Caleb who now play in our back half; while a massive 12 goals came from players who we all thought would be coming in to their prime, or still adding significant value (Clay, Tom Boyd, Picko, Stringer). Lastly, Dicko is past his prime as we sadly learnt last night.
• Key insight: while we were lauded for our stoppage supremacy, we all expected to have sustained/improved output from 3 of our 5 multiple goal-scorers + Jake Stringer well in to 2020
• Defensively, I don’t think our structure hasn’t changed significantly; today’s back 7 of Keath, Cordy, Crozier, Wood, Williams, Daniel and JJ seems comparable to a 2016 back 7 of Hamling, Roberts, Morris, Wood, Biggs, Matty Boyd and JJ. However, this is likely under selling 2016’s team- Morris and Moyd provided harden bodies and wise heads, Woody was in near career best form and Hamling has always been criminally under-rated. Further, with Biggs’ and Roberts’ age profile they should be career form now but only performed out of their skins for 2 weeks.
• Key insight: we also won the premiership due to the contribution of influential defenders who we haven’t successfully replace

Hypothesis 2: To manage our age profile and limit the impact of losing the aforementioned players, we have recruited mature players for mixed success.

• Firstly: tick to Keath and Crozier- both have made our team better.
• Secondly; question marks/ borderline pass against: Bruce (enough said about him in other threads), Lloyd- albeit for 1 year, Duryea- albeit for 1 year
• Thirdly: Crosses against Cloke, Trengove, Schache, Gowers
• Too early to tell (potentially too kind…): Hayes, Gardner, Cavarra, Sweet
• Key insight: we have attempted to fill the gap with mature players, which has been largely unsuccessful

Hypothesis 3: Because most of these mature recruits largely haven’t worked, we’ve been forced to fast-track our kids’ development despite short-term impacts, so they can become key contributors while our 2016 stars are still in their prime.

• Ruck: since 3rd man up was abolished the ruck position has become critically important. Hence, while most of us cringe seeing Timmy play exhausted each week, the MC recognize the importance of having a dominant ruck and are trying to fast track his development by maximizing his minutes
• Pressure smalls: I’d argue that both Richards and Cody have played more games deserving on their output, but players who can offer speed and pressure in front half are critical in the modern game
• Key Position players. Brucey is clearly out of form and we all continue to question Gardy’s selection, but we clearly see 2 KPF who can at least bring the ball to ground as our preferred structure. Further, our KPD depth is minimal but we must prefer Gardy’s contest work to Lewy Young and to his credit, Gardy has attacked the contest with more vigour although still has a way to go
• Key insight: due to broadly unsuccessful mature-aged recruits, we are replacing 2016’s important players with younger recruits and appear to be ‘favouring’ players in selection because we are favouring development. Further, our depth isn't talented enough to place adequate selection competition on these 'favoured' players

Hypothesis 4: Bevo has always said that our players will define our system and despite the criticism, he has remained true to his word.

• Firstly, forwards: in those 2x 2016 finals we scored most of our goals forward-half pressure players, none of whom we’ve successfully replaced. In the Grand Final we only had 6x marks inside 50 (only 3 resulted in goals!); we scored 5 goals from snaps and an additional 3 from intense forward-half pressure (Zaine’s tackle, Morris’ run down on Buddy, ‘Shane Biggs never forget’). Hence, our ‘system’ was to get it inside 50 no matter how, deploy big guys who could at least bring the ball to ground (Zaine and Tom) and trap it until Tory, Picko or Clay scored. Wally aside, who do we have at the moment who can provide the pressure these 3 brought? Conversely, our current main forwards (Wally, Brucey and Astro) generate most of their goals from marks, while we need to develop or bring in players who can provide intense forward pressure. Hence, we have changed our system to be more deliberate with how we bring the ball inside 50 and are persisting with younger players in the pressure roles despite their limited current impact.
• Secondly, the ruck position. I’ve under-estimated how reliant we were on 3rd man up; Bont was the highest rate ‘ruck’ with 9 hit outs on Grand Final day and his critical 3rd man up in the last quarter led to Jake’s goal. Consequently, we are now trying to organically develop a dominant ruck and have made a debatable decision to fast-track his development even if it costs us midfield dominance this year. Clearly Trengove isn’t in our plans and because the MC see us as a developing team, they have decided there is minimal justification to play him
• Lastly, our defensive structure, largely based around interceptors, is the most consistent since 2016, and has the potential to be better than 2016 when all players are in their prime. But they’re not all there yet.
• Key insight: we have changed our offensive and stoppage systems as our personnel and ruck rules have changed significantly. Ironically this is consistent with Bevo’s initial 2014 press conference where we explained that players’ strengths will determine the system. Again ironically, we celebrated this at the time and were critical of Macca for imposing a system that didn’t seem well suited to our playing list at the time!

Thanks to all who have read this far. I Don’t think I would have put so much thought in to this if we weren’t in iso!

In an even season where we’ve been competing for 2-3 quarters against the best teams, it has been incredibly frustrating. But on deeper reflection my hypothesizes go some way to answering why we’re still developing, why we’ve changed our game style, why we keep getting younger and why Timmy has been playing, despite being gassed the last few weeks.

While most of us doggie fans are usually pessimists (hands up if you knew at quarter time last night's game wasn’t over?), 2016 has made us deceptively optimistic: if young, fringe players can play in a premiership then, why can’t our 2020 fringe players enjoy the same fate now? If we could win it from 7th then, it is so romantic to dream that we could do it again with 4 solid weeks.

But, we don’t have all the pieces yet and despite having some superstars, our depth isn’t all that great. We may have some future stars, but this younger list needs to develop quickly so we don’t throw away Bont, Jacko and Dunks’ prime years. So rather than chucking your phone into the couch after every Geelong Q4 goal (me last night), try to enjoy the moments of brilliance and accept that our primary 2020 goal is to fast-track our youngsters’ development so our established guns can enjoy a moment on the dais again.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Great post. Needs to be more talk about what the reality of our situation is. Being idealistic about being a top side or upset that we're wasting 'prime years' is fine and I do it too but neither of those things are actually what's going on. We're on a fast tracked rebuild. To be near the 8 while doing that should be impressive but it just seems like it's raised our expectations too high. The list is probably 2 or 3 years away from being done. We're much better set up than any other rebuilding side, take the positives out of that.

 

[ScragCity]

Hi passionate Dogs fans,

I hope we’re all doing safe and well. Long time reader…minimal poster. Like most, I was the most frustrated I’ve been after a loss in ages, even though there was still an inevitable sense of dread when leading by 6 goals at quarter time.

Hence, I’ve been reflecting: have my expectations of this season been too high, and does our MC see us as a developing team, or a contending team? Judging by the tone and reactions on this forum, most of us supporters probably see this season as winnable; the competition is incredibly even, we have a superstar midfield and premiership players across every line. Hence, when we lose games like last night and reflect on this season, our first reaction is that we are grossly under-performing to expectations.

However, it’s my contention that the coaching staff still see our team as developing. Quote Bevo at the season launch, along the lines of ‘we thought we were closer than we are’ when reflecting on 2019 and other quotes this season, (paraphrasing) remarking that ‘we’re trying to compete against the contenders’. As supporters with high expectations in an even season we can debate whether this is the right approach. It also prompts the following questions being asked repeatedly in Autopsy threads after each frustrating loss:

• Why are we still developing when we won a flag with a young list only 4 years ago?
• Why have changed our game style so dramatically since 216?
• Are we throwing away the golden years of our midfield stars?
• How do we keep getting younger; why do we keep getting younger?!?
• Why do we persist with an incredibly left-field ruck strategy which undermines our midfield advantage?!?!?

I have 4 key hypothesises that seek to answer these questions, and why our club feels like it is still in development mode. If you have the time to read though, I'd love your thoughts and reflections too!

Hypothesis 1: I have grossly underestimated the impact key players had in winning the Preliminary Final and Grand Final. While we had a great midfield, our forwards and backs had phenomenal impacts:

• Firstly: Offensively, we kicked 26 goals over both wonderfully magical games. 5 players contributed 2+ goals over both games: Dicko with 7, 5 to Clay, 3 each to Tom Boyd, Picko, Zaine and 1 each to Bont, Jacko, Toby, Caleb and ‘the Package.’ Of those 26 goals, only 3 goals came from players who are still on our list, in their prime and still playing centre/forward (Bont, Jacko, Toby); 4 goals came from Zaine and Caleb who now play in our back half; while a massive 12 goals came from players who we all thought would be coming in to their prime, or still adding significant value (Clay, Tom Boyd, Picko, Stringer). Lastly, Dicko is past his prime as we sadly learnt last night.
• Key insight: while we were lauded for our stoppage supremacy, we all expected to have sustained/improved output from 3 of our 5 multiple goal-scorers + Jake Stringer well in to 2020
• Defensively, I don’t think our structure hasn’t changed significantly; today’s back 7 of Keath, Cordy, Crozier, Wood, Williams, Daniel and JJ seems comparable to a 2016 back 7 of Hamling, Roberts, Morris, Wood, Biggs, Matty Boyd and JJ. However, this is likely under selling 2016’s team- Morris and Moyd provided harden bodies and wise heads, Woody was in near career best form and Hamling has always been criminally under-rated. Further, with Biggs’ and Roberts’ age profile they should be career form now but only performed out of their skins for 2 weeks.
• Key insight: we also won the premiership due to the contribution of influential defenders who we haven’t successfully replace

Hypothesis 2: To manage our age profile and limit the impact of losing the aforementioned players, we have recruited mature players for mixed success.

• Firstly: tick to Keath and Crozier- both have made our team better.
• Secondly; question marks/ borderline pass against: Bruce (enough said about him in other threads), Lloyd- albeit for 1 year, Duryea- albeit for 1 year
• Thirdly: Crosses against Cloke, Trengove, Schache, Gowers
• Too early to tell (potentially too kind…): Hayes, Gardner, Cavarra, Sweet
• Key insight: we have attempted to fill the gap with mature players, which has been largely unsuccessful

Hypothesis 3: Because most of these mature recruits largely haven’t worked, we’ve been forced to fast-track our kids’ development despite short-term impacts, so they can become key contributors while our 2016 stars are still in their prime.

• Ruck: since 3rd man up was abolished the ruck position has become critically important. Hence, while most of us cringe seeing Timmy play exhausted each week, the MC recognize the importance of having a dominant ruck and are trying to fast track his development by maximizing his minutes
• Pressure smalls: I’d argue that both Richards and Cody have played more games deserving on their output, but players who can offer speed and pressure in front half are critical in the modern game
• Key Position players. Brucey is clearly out of form and we all continue to question Gardy’s selection, but we clearly see 2 KPF who can at least bring the ball to ground as our preferred structure. Further, our KPD depth is minimal but we must prefer Gardy’s contest work to Lewy Young and to his credit, Gardy has attacked the contest with more vigour although still has a way to go
• Key insight: due to broadly unsuccessful mature-aged recruits, we are replacing 2016’s important players with younger recruits and appear to be ‘favouring’ players in selection because we are favouring development. Further, our depth isn't talented enough to place adequate selection competition on these 'favoured' players

Hypothesis 4: Bevo has always said that our players will define our system and despite the criticism, he has remained true to his word.

• Firstly, forwards: in those 2x 2016 finals we scored most of our goals forward-half pressure players, none of whom we’ve successfully replaced. In the Grand Final we only had 6x marks inside 50 (only 3 resulted in goals!); we scored 5 goals from snaps and an additional 3 from intense forward-half pressure (Zaine’s tackle, Morris’ run down on Buddy, ‘Shane Biggs never forget’). Hence, our ‘system’ was to get it inside 50 no matter how, deploy big guys who could at least bring the ball to ground (Zaine and Tom) and trap it until Tory, Picko or Clay scored. Wally aside, who do we have at the moment who can provide the pressure these 3 brought? Conversely, our current main forwards (Wally, Brucey and Astro) generate most of their goals from marks, while we need to develop or bring in players who can provide intense forward pressure. Hence, we have changed our system to be more deliberate with how we bring the ball inside 50 and are persisting with younger players in the pressure roles despite their limited current impact.
• Secondly, the ruck position. I’ve under-estimated how reliant we were on 3rd man up; Bont was the highest rate ‘ruck’ with 9 hit outs on Grand Final day and his critical 3rd man up in the last quarter led to Jake’s goal. Consequently, we are now trying to organically develop a dominant ruck and have made a debatable decision to fast-track his development even if it costs us midfield dominance this year. Clearly Trengove isn’t in our plans and because the MC see us as a developing team, they have decided there is minimal justification to play him
• Lastly, our defensive structure, largely based around interceptors, is the most consistent since 2016, and has the potential to be better than 2016 when all players are in their prime. But they’re not all there yet.
• Key insight: we have changed our offensive and stoppage systems as our personnel and ruck rules have changed significantly. Ironically this is consistent with Bevo’s initial 2014 press conference where we explained that players’ strengths will determine the system. Again ironically, we celebrated this at the time and were critical of Macca for imposing a system that didn’t seem well suited to our playing list at the time!

Thanks to all who have read this far. I Don’t think I would have put so much thought in to this if we weren’t in iso!

In an even season where we’ve been competing for 2-3 quarters against the best teams, it has been incredibly frustrating. But on deeper reflection my hypothesizes go some way to answering why we’re still developing, why we’ve changed our game style, why we keep getting younger and why Timmy has been playing, despite being gassed the last few weeks.

While most of us doggie fans are usually pessimists (hands up if you knew at quarter time last night's game wasn’t over?), 2016 has made us deceptively optimistic: if young, fringe players can play in a premiership then, why can’t our 2020 fringe players enjoy the same fate now? If we could win it from 7th then, it is so romantic to dream that we could do it again with 4 solid weeks.

But, we don’t have all the pieces yet and despite having some superstars, our depth isn’t all that great. We may have some future stars, but this younger list needs to develop quickly so we don’t throw away Bont, Jacko and Dunks’ prime years. So rather than chucking your phone into the couch after every Geelong Q4 goal (me last night), try to enjoy the moments of brilliance and accept that our primary 2020 goal is to fast-track our youngsters’ development so our established guns can enjoy a moment on the dais again.

I believe the plural of 'hypothesis' is 'hypotheses'.

 

[Doggies9]

Good post Dogs will be fine have jamarra Bruce will be better in our system and have defiantly missed marvel coach is not the problem we have blooded a lot of young talent English is on the improve we willl be back probably need a small forward like Zac Langdon or jack Lonie

 

[fred cook]

Hi passionate Dogs fans,

I hope we’re all doing safe and well. Long time reader…minimal poster. Like most, I was the most frustrated I’ve been after a loss in ages, even though there was still an inevitable sense of dread when leading by 6 goals at quarter time.

Hence, I’ve been reflecting: have my expectations of this season been too high, and does our MC see us as a developing team, or a contending team? Judging by the tone and reactions on this forum, most of us supporters probably see this season as winnable; the competition is incredibly even, we have a superstar midfield and premiership players across every line. Hence, when we lose games like last night and reflect on this season, our first reaction is that we are grossly under-performing to expectations.

However, it’s my contention that the coaching staff still see our team as developing. Quote Bevo at the season launch, along the lines of ‘we thought we were closer than we are’ when reflecting on 2019 and other quotes this season, (paraphrasing) remarking that ‘we’re trying to compete against the contenders’. As supporters with high expectations in an even season we can debate whether this is the right approach. It also prompts the following questions being asked repeatedly in Autopsy threads after each frustrating loss:

• Why are we still developing when we won a flag with a young list only 4 years ago?
• Why have changed our game style so dramatically since 216?
• Are we throwing away the golden years of our midfield stars?
• How do we keep getting younger; why do we keep getting younger?!?
• Why do we persist with an incredibly left-field ruck strategy which undermines our midfield advantage?!?!?

I have 4 key hypothesises that seek to answer these questions, and why our club feels like it is still in development mode. If you have the time to read though, I'd love your thoughts and reflections too!

Hypothesis 1: I have grossly underestimated the impact key players had in winning the Preliminary Final and Grand Final. While we had a great midfield, our forwards and backs had phenomenal impacts:

• Firstly: Offensively, we kicked 26 goals over both wonderfully magical games. 5 players contributed 2+ goals over both games: Dicko with 7, 5 to Clay, 3 each to Tom Boyd, Picko, Zaine and 1 each to Bont, Jacko, Toby, Caleb and ‘the Package.’ Of those 26 goals, only 3 goals came from players who are still on our list, in their prime and still playing centre/forward (Bont, Jacko, Toby); 4 goals came from Zaine and Caleb who now play in our back half; while a massive 12 goals came from players who we all thought would be coming in to their prime, or still adding significant value (Clay, Tom Boyd, Picko, Stringer). Lastly, Dicko is past his prime as we sadly learnt last night.
• Key insight: while we were lauded for our stoppage supremacy, we all expected to have sustained/improved output from 3 of our 5 multiple goal-scorers + Jake Stringer well in to 2020
• Defensively, I don’t think our structure hasn’t changed significantly; today’s back 7 of Keath, Cordy, Crozier, Wood, Williams, Daniel and JJ seems comparable to a 2016 back 7 of Hamling, Roberts, Morris, Wood, Biggs, Matty Boyd and JJ. However, this is likely under selling 2016’s team- Morris and Moyd provided harden bodies and wise heads, Woody was in near career best form and Hamling has always been criminally under-rated. Further, with Biggs’ and Roberts’ age profile they should be career form now but only performed out of their skins for 2 weeks.
• Key insight: we also won the premiership due to the contribution of influential defenders who we haven’t successfully replace

Hypothesis 2: To manage our age profile and limit the impact of losing the aforementioned players, we have recruited mature players for mixed success.

• Firstly: tick to Keath and Crozier- both have made our team better.
• Secondly; question marks/ borderline pass against: Bruce (enough said about him in other threads), Lloyd- albeit for 1 year, Duryea- albeit for 1 year
• Thirdly: Crosses against Cloke, Trengove, Schache, Gowers
• Too early to tell (potentially too kind…): Hayes, Gardner, Cavarra, Sweet
• Key insight: we have attempted to fill the gap with mature players, which has been largely unsuccessful

Hypothesis 3: Because most of these mature recruits largely haven’t worked, we’ve been forced to fast-track our kids’ development despite short-term impacts, so they can become key contributors while our 2016 stars are still in their prime.

• Ruck: since 3rd man up was abolished the ruck position has become critically important. Hence, while most of us cringe seeing Timmy play exhausted each week, the MC recognize the importance of having a dominant ruck and are trying to fast track his development by maximizing his minutes
• Pressure smalls: I’d argue that both Richards and Cody have played more games deserving on their output, but players who can offer speed and pressure in front half are critical in the modern game
• Key Position players. Brucey is clearly out of form and we all continue to question Gardy’s selection, but we clearly see 2 KPF who can at least bring the ball to ground as our preferred structure. Further, our KPD depth is minimal but we must prefer Gardy’s contest work to Lewy Young and to his credit, Gardy has attacked the contest with more vigour although still has a way to go
• Key insight: due to broadly unsuccessful mature-aged recruits, we are replacing 2016’s important players with younger recruits and appear to be ‘favouring’ players in selection because we are favouring development. Further, our depth isn't talented enough to place adequate selection competition on these 'favoured' players

Hypothesis 4: Bevo has always said that our players will define our system and despite the criticism, he has remained true to his word.

• Firstly, forwards: in those 2x 2016 finals we scored most of our goals forward-half pressure players, none of whom we’ve successfully replaced. In the Grand Final we only had 6x marks inside 50 (only 3 resulted in goals!); we scored 5 goals from snaps and an additional 3 from intense forward-half pressure (Zaine’s tackle, Morris’ run down on Buddy, ‘Shane Biggs never forget’). Hence, our ‘system’ was to get it inside 50 no matter how, deploy big guys who could at least bring the ball to ground (Zaine and Tom) and trap it until Tory, Picko or Clay scored. Wally aside, who do we have at the moment who can provide the pressure these 3 brought? Conversely, our current main forwards (Wally, Brucey and Astro) generate most of their goals from marks, while we need to develop or bring in players who can provide intense forward pressure. Hence, we have changed our system to be more deliberate with how we bring the ball inside 50 and are persisting with younger players in the pressure roles despite their limited current impact.
• Secondly, the ruck position. I’ve under-estimated how reliant we were on 3rd man up; Bont was the highest rate ‘ruck’ with 9 hit outs on Grand Final day and his critical 3rd man up in the last quarter led to Jake’s goal. Consequently, we are now trying to organically develop a dominant ruck and have made a debatable decision to fast-track his development even if it costs us midfield dominance this year. Clearly Trengove isn’t in our plans and because the MC see us as a developing team, they have decided there is minimal justification to play him
• Lastly, our defensive structure, largely based around interceptors, is the most consistent since 2016, and has the potential to be better than 2016 when all players are in their prime. But they’re not all there yet.
• Key insight: we have changed our offensive and stoppage systems as our personnel and ruck rules have changed significantly. Ironically this is consistent with Bevo’s initial 2014 press conference where we explained that players’ strengths will determine the system. Again ironically, we celebrated this at the time and were critical of Macca for imposing a system that didn’t seem well suited to our playing list at the time!

Thanks to all who have read this far. I Don’t think I would have put so much thought in to this if we weren’t in iso!

In an even season where we’ve been competing for 2-3 quarters against the best teams, it has been incredibly frustrating. But on deeper reflection my hypothesizes go some way to answering why we’re still developing, why we’ve changed our game style, why we keep getting younger and why Timmy has been playing, despite being gassed the last few weeks.

While most of us doggie fans are usually pessimists (hands up if you knew at quarter time last night's game wasn’t over?), 2016 has made us
deceptively optimistic: if young, fringe players can play in a premiership then, why can’t our 2020 fringe players enjoy the same fate now? If we could win it from 7th then, it is so romantic to dream that we could do it again with 4 solid weeks.

But, we don’t have all the pieces yet and despite having some superstars, our depth isn’t all that great. We may have some future stars, but this younger list needs to develop quickly so we don’t throw away Bont, Jacko and Dunks’ prime years. So rather than chucking your phone into the couch after every Geelong Q4 goal (me last night), try to enjoy the moments of brilliance and accept that our primary 2020 goal is to fast-track our youngsters’ development so our established guns can enjoy a moment on the dais again.

Thank you Mr Gordon or Mr Baines or Mr Power or Mr Grant

 

[ScragCity]

Good post Dogs will be fine have jamarra Bruce will be better in our system and have defiantly missed marvel coach is not the problem we have blooded a lot of young talent English is on the improve we willl be back probably need a small forward like Zac Langdon or jack Lonie

Take a breath

 

[Yojimbo]

Sadly we will never know how the people who lived the 2016 experience were really affected by it because as we have all seen the
iron curtain has genuinely descended. What we achieved has never been done in the modern era although we were far from the
worst ever performing premier. Only three premiers have been what i call "Noble Premiers" 1st for scoring and 1st for conceding
proving there are many ways to skin a cat. In reality only a handful of sides have a chance to raise the cup in a given year, but
the feat cannot happen without a degree of fortune. I have watched more bad grand finals than good ones, but i tell you the
team that wins always thinks they were good if not great. Football is balance to me, our team is not balanced and has always
been a widget short nothing has changed.

 

[Bazzas Lovechild]

Interesting analysis. I’m not sure we’re doing the right thing with English though. I think playing him like we are is making him worse, not better.

 

[dogwatch]

Good write up Willo but I don't agree. Bevo would like it though!

A few mini thought bubbles in response:

• We ARE underperforming for the list we have.
• Underperformance is more related to roles and tactics, not so much to inconsistent effort, player unavailability, etc.
• Whether MC think it or not, there IS a role for mature players (like Trengove, Dickson, Suckling, etc) even if it may be true that they won't be playing in our next flag-winning side. Leadership is one aspect of it. Helping players develop and learn what it takes to win tough games is another. Making us good enough to last at least a couple of weeks into a finals series is yet another (thus earning valuable finals experience).
• "Putting more games into English" sounds good. He might also end up with far-reaching physical and mental (confidence) impacts which would not be so good. Either way I hope he is mentally resilient and getting lots of support. I reckon it would be a terrible place to be right now.
• Meanwhile Dunkley and co are having their own career development stunted by (a) spending time in another highly unsuited role and (b) having to switch to and fro between roles, which must really mess with their heads. Not only that but we are losing the contribution we should be getting from them right now as non-rucking midfielders.
• The bizarre and patently unsuccessful tactics Bevo is using (Mutt posted a chart showing his win ratio since 2016 is about 46%) will have ripples beyond our own inner sanctum and these could come back to us in future years. People will see how we recruited Trengove then ignored him even when there was a clear need for what he can offer. People will see how Bevo doesn't rate talls and rucks. So when we want to recruit a ready-made one, how many would rush for the opportunity to play under a coach who may well starve him of opportunities and ruin his career? And it's not just the talls. How many quality smalls/mid-size players will have qualms when they see the trashing of whole-of-list opportunities we've seen since 2016? If it was me I'd be looking for a more conventional and proven coach like Clarkson, Hardwick ... hell, even Scott.

Having said all that I do think we aren't far off a resurgence with this list. We just need 2-3 well-chosen imports and some changes in tactics and off-field personnel. I think the tactical switches (much discussed elsewhere) are the hard bit because Bevo is Bevo, but they could quickly transform the way the side plays and its effectiveness against the best sides in the comp. We can and should be a top 4 side in 2021.
Unfortunately, while I can see the possibilities I'm pessimistic because I don't think Bevo will change or permit change around him, and I think nobody at the club is strong enough to force it on him. That change includes a cleanout of his assistants among other things.

The best that I think I can hope for is that there will be some natural improvement from now to 2021 as players mature, and in particular that English can recover from 2020 and develop into a ruck who wins or halves more of his ruck contests. If those things happen we could still be an outside chance of a top 4 place, despite the bewildering coaching.

 

[BEaston]

I personally think we're over-performing with the list we have.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

It really has been a tale of two cities well 2 clubs and their culture. We win the 2016 flag and fall off the perch and the tigers win 2017 flag and keep performing.

In a way this reflects the history of the two clubs over the last 70 years. My father told me when we won the 1954 flag we had a team laden with talent and we were expected to create a dynasty. However he said the rumours were that Peter Box and Ted Whitten never got along and Jack Collins was all for himself. They became big heads being the first team to win flag for the club and never created sustained success.

Conversely the tigers win the flag in 1967 after big drought and have a period of sustained success.


Fast forward to 2016 we win the flag with a young team, we are expected to have sustained success and history repeats itself. The team gets ahead of itself and Jake Stringer becomes a disruptive force. The tigers win it 2017 after a long gap and become the benchmark creating a dynasty repeating their history.

We just cannot handle success to create sustained success like the tigers, cats and hawks. We needed more Dale Morris types and less Jake Stringer types on the playing field and a humble coaching and administration staff . I guess just to hard for us with the glory we got from the win.

.

 

[Dazb86]

I personally think we're over-performing with the list we have.

Really? I'd have us as a top 8 team on paper.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Really? I'd have us as a top 8 team on paper.

With our age and experience? We will be, but not yet.

 

[BEaston]

Really? I'd have us as a top 8 team on paper.

Sorry... I'll clarify. As the initial post was somewhat talking about our performances since 2016, I had that in mind. I think we've overperformed in the last few seasons after we mini-rebuilt by hitting the draft and having our experienced heads move on for various reasons.

This season, I see us in the 8-10th range with Melbourne and Carlton.

I look at the age/experience profile as well as structural deficiencies and positional make up of the list. I don't think we are certifiably top 8 material. I think we have good players and good strategies but we only really have a handful of players in their prime, some of which have been limited this year: Wallis, Crozier, Bruce, Duryea, Libba, JJ and Macrae.
Also after about the 15th most experienced guy it kinda drops off a cliff, so when injuries hit we get caught out pretty bad.

 

[conrad_437]

Great post. Needs to be more talk about what the reality of our situation is. Being idealistic about being a top side or upset that we're wasting 'prime years' is fine and I do it too but neither of those things are actually what's going on. We're on a fast tracked rebuild. To be near the 8 while doing that should be impressive but it just seems like it's raised our expectations too high. The list is probably 2 or 3 years away from being done. We're much better set up than any other rebuilding side, take the positives out of that.

Agreed. From a long term (3-7 years) perspective, there is no team I'd be more confident with having right now (maybe Gold Coast). We have to remember that experience across each line is invaluable, something we had in 2016 and something we just don't anymore. Woody is our most experienced regular player (171 games), but his best days are certainly behind him and often misses multiple weeks at a time for injury. We have 10 players among the 100-150 game level:

• Bont - leadership speaks for itself
• Bruce - not exactly leadership material in the traditional sense but is a good clubman and very involved with the other boys
• Daniel - potential leader
• Duryea - premiership experience, could have somewhat of an impact on-field
• Hunter - despite his misgivings, he is a leader and an on-field organiser
• JJ - in the leadership group
• Libba - similar to Bruce, the boys love him and he will fight tooth and nail for the club. Invaluable.
• Wallis - highly regarded leader and is the likely vice-captain
• Dickson - on his way out
• Crozier - haven't heard much about his leadership, but the way he plays suggests he can lead by example
• Macrae - He's on 155 games but he's essentially part of this nucleus. Isn't outspoken but will become a 2xAA and likely BnF, leads by example and his experience will only get better as he goes on.

We have no regular players apart from Easton Wood above this nucleus. That for me is the driving factor between our clear on-field inconsistency - there are limited cool heads to rely when we need them to. Bonti is the obvious one but even he hasn't reached his median number of games played. Now let's look at those under the 100 game mark who are clearly going to become part of this group:

• Cordy - has his moments but experience will allow him to grow into a defender that we can rely upon to deliver and limit his mistakes
• Dunkley - is clearly a leader amongst the younger boys and will probably become Bont's right hand man
• English - down in the dumps right now but his talent is obvious. Will be a slow burn but experience may allow him to become the ruckman we need within the next 3 years
• Keath - career started late, will likely have around 5 good years left in him. A steady hand in defence, it's difficult when he has next to no one to assist
• Lipinski - has some weaknesses, but he can make it as a footballer. Have no idea about his leadership
• Mclean - needs to be in the team, will provide some good experience and leadership despite his introversion
• Naughton - speaks for himself
• Richards - I'm 50/50 about
• Smith - speaks for himself
• Williams - will become a vital cog of the back 50 with more experience

With both of those groups, there is clearly massive amounts of improvement to come. Watching the team now, it is quite clear we are immature and when the heat is put on, more often than not we fail to counter, Friday night being a perfect example. But realistically, our most established players are still quite young in the grand scheme of things, and there is enough leadership potential across both groups to both curate this talent and establish a system which can hold up at the times we need to most. This isn't necessarily a Bevo problem, we were quite adept over 2015-2016 and even 2017 to close games out when we needed them to. The team has gotten younger and our most experienced players left/retired. Our best days are clearly long ahead of us, and whilst I am clearly disappointed with results such as the other night from a talent POV, when looking logically at our future there aren't many teams better placed than us for a flag tilt in the next 3-7 years. The fact that we are in the running for the 8 is more indicative of talent than anything else tbh.

 

[dogwatch]

It really has been a tale of two cities well 2 clubs and their culture. We win the 2016 flag and fall off the perch and the tigers win 2017 flag and keep performing.

In a way this reflects the history of the two clubs over the last 70 years. My father told me when we won the 1954 flag we had a team laden with talent and we were expected to create a dynasty. However he said the rumours were that Peter Box and Ted Whitten never got along and Jack Collins was all for himself. They became big heads being the first team to win flag for the club and never created sustained success.

Conversely the tigers win the flag in 1967 after big drought and have a period of sustained success.


Fast forward to 2016 we win the flag with a young team, we are expected to have sustained success and history repeats itself. The team gets ahead of itself and Jake Stringer becomes a disruptive force. The tigers win it 2017 after a long gap and become the benchmark creating a dynasty repeating their history.

We just cannot handle success to create sustained success like the tigers, cats and hawks. We needed more Dale Morris types and less Jake Stringer types on the playing field and a humble coaching and administration staff . I guess just to hard for us with the glory we got from the win.

.

The parallels may be accurate but the conclusion that we'll never be any good is too fatalistic and just plain flawed logic.

At any point in time we can make our own history. It's up to us, today, to do that.

Don't get trapped in gloomy DroopStreetDanny defeatism.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

The parallels may be accurate but the conclusion that we'll never be any good is too fatalistic and just plain flawed logic.

At any point in time we can make our own history. It's up to us, today, to do that.

Don't get trapped in gloomy DroopStreetDanny defeatism.

Yes I think you have jumped to a conclusion of doom and gloom or I should have included how we can change this probably the latter. We can change it but we must learn from our mistakes the next time we win a flag hopefully soon on the back of Astronaut and Juggernaut (JUH). We cannot celebrate like there is no tomorrow and get ahead of ourselves and become big heads if we want to build a sustained period of success.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Also should say we’re in a good position - we know what our problems are. As opposed to 2018 or the first half of 2019 or even the first two games of this year where absolutely everything was going wrong. There will be a lot of work put into the key deficiencies this off season

 

[Willo90]

Hi again all- good to read your comments, thoughts and builds.

dogwatch - i enjoyed reading your views and by and large i think we're coming from the same place. i think we both accept we are putting development first, but you raise some good points in regards to questioning we developing certain players we right way- especially in regards to Dunks and English. I suppose time will only tell, by framing these decisions in a development context adds a bit more logic to what would otherwise be very questionable tactics!

Re the ongoing discussion on do we over-rate our list vs what should this expectations be for 2020- think of this comparison. Which recent Dogs team would you pick if you had the choice; 2016, 2009 or 2020? I would take them in that order...but think if we can keep the current crop together and they stay healthy, then they will be best of the lot which should have us seriously challenging for the next few seasons. Given both 2009 and 2016 teams won 15/22 games; (equivalent of 11.5/17), if we all agree that the 2020 squad is talented but not at their level yet, then 9-10 wins seems a reasonable expectation, which is probably where we'll end up.

 

[Yojimbo]

Hi again all- good to read your comments, thoughts and builds.

dogwatch - i enjoyed reading your views and by and large i think we're coming from the same place. i think we both accept we are putting development first, but you raise some good points in regards to questioning we developing certain players we right way- especially in regards to Dunks and English. I suppose time will only tell, by framing these decisions in a development context adds a bit more logic to what would otherwise be very questionable tactics!

Re the ongoing discussion on do we over-rate our list vs what should this expectations be for 2020- think of this comparison. Which recent Dogs team would you pick if you had the choice; 2016, 2009 or 2020? I would take them in that order...but think if we can keep the current crop together and they stay healthy, then they will be best of the lot which should have us seriously challenging for the next few seasons. Given both 2009 and 2016 teams won 15/22 games; (equivalent of 11.5/17), if we all agree that the 2020 squad is talented but not at their level yet, then 9-10 wins seems a reasonable expectation, which is probably where we'll end up.

Don't underestimate 2015 more so in a points for sense, Bevo did not have time to bed in his defensive style which was why we won the flag.
You have to give to get, may be the most important quote in the years to come, but not before enlightenment.

 

[Brian Perrin]

Like all teams we would have started pre-season aiming to go deep in September - mission accomplished

My concern is that our season ending 3 games into September will make it feel like another ignominious preliminary final exit


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[murphy's twin]

I'm really happy that the club is taking the long game.

The club has a sharp focus on creating a environment which will lead to SUSTAINED SUCCESS.

Look at Richmond - until recently they held the record for most days without a finals win (now Essendon hold this title).
Even further back - look at Geelong, they had several years of struggle - until they held a full club review, then entered their golden years.

Look the club did a great job with jagging a premiership in 16.

Unfortunately that level of performance was never possible to sustain, since we historically really screwed up with the draft in the period of 05 through to 09 (in addition to what has been mentioned with losing players for various reasons)

In that period Richmond nailed all their picks and have really taken advantage of that - Cotchin, jack riewoldt (we took Everrit!!) and Martin (that draft we selected Christian Howard over Fyfe...)

Now we have changed this around 360 from 2010 onwards.

Bulldogs people - we WILL get there.

Have Faith.

See below my list analysis which shows how amazing our drafting has been recently. Since the premiership we now have 10 players who i believe will line up in our next big dance which is an amazing thought.

Then on the flip side, we don't have any players before 2010 who i think can help us on that day (possibly Wood if his body holds up)

Year drafted	Player	Age	Traded	Premiership 22?
20	JUH	17		1
19	Weightman	18		2
	Butler
18	West	19		3
	Smith			4
	La Young	20
	Cavarra	24
	Vandermeer	20		5
17	Richards	20		6
	Naughton			7
	Gowers	22
	Porter	20
16	Keath	27	T	8
	Lipinski	21		9
	English			10
	Le Young
15	Dunkley	22		11
	Schache		T
	Williams			12
14	Daniel	23		13
	Mclean			14
	Dale			E
	Cordy			15
13	Bont	24		16
	Lloyd	29	T
12	Macrae	25		17
	Hunter			18
11	Bruce	28	T	E
	Crozier	26	T	19
	Dickson	31
	Jong	26
10	Libba	27		20
	Wallis			21
	JJ			22
9	Suckling	31	T
	Duryea	29	T
8	Trengove	29	T
7	Wood	30