AFL 2021 AFL Round 13

[Ohh Ok]

5u - Adelaide +5.5 - $1.85 - PointsBet

5u - St Kilda SU - $1.85 - 365
Not an ideal position, but covering myself on my earlier position on the crows. Not as keen on it anymore so hedging out. Up to lose 0.75 units, but still a small opening of 5 points to win on both sides. Bet 365 also offer an early pay out which could trigger. Crows away record isn’t anywhere up to scratch and this on is another season on the line match for the Saints.

 

[NYRB]

The player stat multiplier is a dangerous one. It relies heavily on goals scored

Rowell 128-150

Let's say you take under 128 and put $10 on it.

If Rowell has 15 kicks, 15 handballs he scores 0.1 you're laughing. He scores 0.
$1280

If he has 15 kicks, 15 handballs and he scores 1.0 you're crying.
He scores 225
128-225 = -97
-$970

Bets are usually capped, in this case its at 80 either way so you can win/lose up up $800 for a $10 bet

To counter that, PointsBet have an option where you can play the Kicks x Handballs market alone.

The spread for that is between
160-188 for Matt Rowell

If you think he has 14 kicks and 12 handballs, no matter what amount of goals he gets the bet is still in play.

14 x 12= 168.

Now if you bet on UNDER 160 or OVER 188, the punter would lose. That middle margin is where I assume PointsBet or Spread companies make that overlay or profit.

 

[NYRB]

The less riskiest option for spread betting for that stat multiplier is to BACK OVERs at low spreads.

eg I think of Ben King tonight at OVER 34, if you put $0.50 on that, the most you could lose is $17.00.

Backing OVERS on someone like a Dangerfield or a Rowell at triple figures spreads (Kicks x Handballs x Goals) means 1) you need a larger bankroll and 2) if they dont kicks goals you bet is screwed and 3) you need to expect them to perform on the day- there is no leeway for them underperforming in all aspects . Finally, even if they score the goal, they still to have a decent game to cover whatever line they need to cover.

 

[chrisdon16]

Maybe for both teams combined, for a quarter, not an entire half!

I don't think full time scores of 50 each has ever been normal.

I think he means the accuracy on goal, not the total number of scoring shots. Hawks are the worst team in the league in regards to goal efficiency & def I50 against, they've been terrible all season then come out and play like that. It was a weird night of footy that's for sure.

 

[Robo87]

Does anyone like lonie - fwd pocket for saints?
ags @1.92 lads
2g+ @5.75 lads

 

[chrisdon16]

Fremantle Win

$1.95 Bet365

 

[Ohh Ok]

Fremantle Win

$1.95 Bet365

Reasoning?
I got the early line on the suns, but still like them h2h

 

[Coach Bombay]

Does anyone know which bookies have a good sign up bonus going at the minute? Already with SB and Ladbrokes

 

[tangolikelama]

 

[baby pluto]

All aboard the ****ing battle train.

 

[benji21]

Henry AGS 1.85 and 2+ 5. Been lively lately but playing higher up the ground, with walters playing mid I think they will have him closer to goal.

 

[mac23]

Freo 1-39/Under 157.5
$5 Lads Boosted

 

[benji21]

Collins late out.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Treacy/King 3+
$16.10 TS

 

[Ohh Ok]

Serong 20+ disposals is $2.25 in bet365 et builder. Next best is $1.75 on TAB and TopSport.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Serong 20+ disposals is $2.25 in bet365 et builder. Next best is $1.75 on TAB and TopSport.

$1.85?

 

[Ohh Ok]

$1.85?

Sorry, must’ve moved already. Thought it was worth sharing. Backed him at $2 earlier in the week with SB and that came in too.

 

[jikost]

Collins late out.

Gold Coast backline looks fragile.

Lobb/Treacy 4+ @ $2.6 tab

 

[5 Bucks]

Rowell $6 2 goals
Rowell $29 3 goals

 

[TryAnHit]

On Burgess 2+ 3.8$ / 3+ 11$

Weak freo def. Played all fwd last week

 

[chrisdon16]

Reasoning?
I got the early line on the suns, but still like them h2h

Model based. Also, like Freo even with the outs. Suns are being a little overrated. Two home games in a row for Freo so no travel.

 

[Hak94]

 

[benji21]

Toppy Lobb 2.44 for 2+ and treacy 2.82. Think one of them should kick 2.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

 

[Prochard123]

Freo vs GC

1. Brayshaw to beat the 28.5 disposal line (included Brayshaw to reach 25 touches in a multi)
2. Cerra to beat the 24.5 disposal line (included Cerra to reach 20 touches in a multi)
3. Serong to reach 20 touches