AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[2006_Eagles]

Also FU Bont for skipping the last 4 weeks of the season. Absolute kent

 

[Gift]

Would absolutely love to know what was going on in the umpires minds with some of these decisions.

I joked to a mate that the AFL must have lost the real votes sending them to WA and let sportsbet do the votes lol

 

[Gift]

Also FU Bont for skipping the last 4 weeks of the season. Absolute kent

I blame Bevo for that by messing with our lineup so much. He can make up for it with another flag this weekend.

 

[LIONS15v]

The problem with betting on the brownlow is umpire bias. Hence why i generally hate betting on it. Most gambling comes down to your knowledge of the sport or being more skilled than the bookie/dealer. Umpires throw everything into dissaray. Ill stick to my same game multi’s and Thoroughbreds.

The beauty of Brownlow betting is that it is based on results that have already happened.
There is a certain science to it unlike other forms of betting where a team/player/horse can just play like shit or get injured.. there will always be outliers and umpire bias involved though (which also plays a part in a lot of sports results).

However, you should profit easily if you are conservative in the outcomes you choose to bet.
Of course you have to account for factors such as umpires and polling history.

The below multi-bet for example was quite close to guaranteed money and it cashed for me last night (I posted it here yesterday morning):

Oliver T5, Walsh/Trac T10, Boak/Merret/Parker T20

 

[Hellboy101]

The way I see it though, is if 5 blokes draw for 10th it’s actually unfair on the bookies having to now pay out for 14 blokes in a bet that was stated “top 10” instead I see the five blokes that finished 10th become a fraction of that last spot. Each bloke is worth 20% of that spot.

It’s the same as if 4 guys came third in the pub footy tips competition, no way in hell would you expect the pub to dish up the full cash prize to 4 blokes, it’d be split evenly.

On the topic of this, TAB paid out at full for Jack Steele top 5 in one of my multis. Wasn’t expecting it, and won’t be upset if they make adjustments.

It’s why there isn’t as much value in taking the top 10/20 picks IMO unless it’s as a single as there is always a group of guys tied for that final spot each year.

Also had Steele as the

The way I see it though, is if 5 blokes draw for 10th it’s actually unfair on the bookies having to now pay out for 14 blokes in a bet that was stated “top 10” instead I see the five blokes that finished 10th become a fraction of that last spot. Each bloke is worth 20% of that spot.

It’s the same as if 4 guys came third in the pub footy tips competition, no way in hell would you expect the pub to dish up the full cash prize to 4 blokes, it’d be split evenly.

On the topic of this, TAB paid out at full for Jack Steele top 5 in one of my multis. Wasn’t expecting it, and won’t be upset if they make adjustments.

It’s why there isn’t as much value in taking the top 10/20 picks IMO unless it’s as a single as there is always a group of guys tied for that final spot each year.

I had the exact same issue at TAB. My multi with Steele was first resulted in a loss and then paid out in full. Was waiting for the payment to be halved but just received all funds. Happy days! Will be placing brownlow multi's with the TAB with these rules. Interested to hear how you got on?

 

[Prochard123]

Also had Steele as the

I had the exact same issue at TAB. My multi with Steele was first resulted in a loss and then paid out in full. Was waiting for the payment to be halved but just received all funds. Happy days! Will be placing brownlow multi's with the TAB with these rules. Interested to hear how you got on?

Yeap definitely going with TAB instead of SB from next year, huge difference it can make.

 

[salaterra]

The beauty of Brownlow betting is that it is based on results that have already happened.
There is a certain science to it unlike other forms of betting where a team/player/horse can just play like sh*t or get injured.. there will always be outliers and umpire bias involved though (which also plays a part in a lot of sports results).

However, you should profit easily if you are conservative in the outcomes you choose to bet.
Of course you have to account for factors such as umpires and polling history.

The below multi-bet for example was quite close to guaranteed money and it cashed for me last night (I posted it here yesterday morning):

Oliver T5, Walsh/Trac T10, Boak/Merret/Parker T20

I mean although I agree, and I have only ever profited, you posting it yesterday would have helped a lot more people when those odds were twice as much 4 weeks ago haha. There is definitely a certain science to it, but when Macrae doesn't make the top 20, and players like Hopper do, it can ruin some "guaranteed bets" (you can tell I missed a huge chunk of profit because of Macrae as the last leg in heapppps)

 

[Hellboy101]

Yeap definitely going with TAB instead of SB from next year, huge difference it can make.

I had two multi's running and the price difference between TAB and sports was significant. 30% extra on both.

 

[salaterra]

View attachment 1240974

he robbbed me blind that guy, at least 30 bets with him the last leg, wouldn't made so so much

 

[NYRB]

Spoke to the TAB and Sportsbet in regards to Trifecta bets and was having a discussion with a group of guys also betting on Brownlow.


TAB mentioned that with Trifectas, they eg 1/2/3, they pay out on dead heat rules, whereas Sportsbet made it clear with a Trifecta, the players had to finish outright 1st, outright 2nd and outright 3rd with no ties involved. Rang them both up individually to get clear interpretations. I too will be using TAB in future for these markets.

 

[LIONS15v]

I mean although I agree, and I have only ever profited, you posting it yesterday would have helped a lot more people when those odds were twice as much 4 weeks ago haha. There is definitely a certain science to it, but when Macrae doesn't make the top 20, and players like Hopper do, it can ruin some "guaranteed bets" (you can tell I missed a huge chunk of profit because of Macrae as the last leg in heapppps)

For me there was enough reason to avoid Macrae in any bets this year.

You seem like a glass half-empty guy.
I post it when I post it, if it helps some people it's better than helping nobody at all.
You also assume that I would have betted it myself 4 weeks ago.
Not everyone does their research and bets that early.
Even if I did, there's no real onus on me to post it early.

And I'm pretty sure there was more than enough material from other posters here 4 weeks ago to help those people, "haha".

 

[Ohh Ok]

Also had Steele as the

I had the exact same issue at TAB. My multi with Steele was first resulted in a loss and then paid out in full. Was waiting for the payment to be halved but just received all funds. Happy days! Will be placing brownlow multi's with the TAB with these rules. Interested to hear how you got on?

I posted a bunch of bets Saturday morning, they only profited about half a unit.

I did clean up on the 3 vote game multis courtesy of someone that posted in here and then making some of my own. I’m not sure whether Topsport will give the same option next year as I can’t imagine them to have done too well on it. Will definitely go harder on it next year if it is available though.

I always find there’s value to be had if you’re prepared to take things in the $1.50-$1.70 mark. Whether that be Melbourne most votes, BYObets or really short team multis.

There are that many options to bet on though and the main undoing of many people is putting too many eggs in one basket, eg 5 multis with macrae top 20 etc.these are the people that end up losing on the night. I try to avoid that, I think my only duplicate bets were two multis that included Oliver top 5 and a “lock” 3 point vote multi which included a bunch of my picks inconsidered
Locks

 

[anabac]

Yes, but when you're combining multis and your odds of 20-1 become 10-1 due to a technicality... its a bit rough.
ie if you skipped the leg entirely, you'd get paid more than if you had it and it succeeded but in a tie with someone else.
Steel finishing top 5 but tie with someone else is a perfect example. He DID finish top 5..

Seems illogical to me. If nothing else it should just delete the leg from the earnings?

If you don't understand how this works you probably shouldn't be punting

 

[LIONS15v]

Yes, but when you're combining multis and your odds of 20-1 become 10-1 due to a technicality... its a bit rough.
ie if you skipped the leg entirely, you'd get paid more than if you had it and it succeeded but in a tie with someone else.
Steel finishing top 5 but tie with someone else is a perfect example. He DID finish top 5..

Seems illogical to me. If nothing else it should just delete the leg from the earnings?

Lol, you should become a bookie and use those rules...

It's the risk you take when you bet on a short-priced favourite.

 

[botswana42]

Cheers everyone for posting their counts, whether it be aggregates of websites, their manual counts or models and especially for the suggested bets. Got on a couple of massive value in Boak T10 & T20, Guthrie, Taranto in grps and BYO rorts thanks to people on here.

Also, I know lots of people including myself where greying up about Wines polling well due to impact after the seaon was over, and I am new to brownlow betting, but I reckon there is a lesson to trust the individual games and rounds and the leaderboard will look after and speak itself, proven by Wines duling saluting after being on top for most.

And probably a controversial opinion but I thought the umps did a great job. People are focusing on rough results and weird ones and I am not denying they exist or that the umpires or the voting was perfect nor is the system infallible, but complete spell to the people saying its rigged or that there should be an independent panel. 3 vote prices sub 1.3 went polled the three about 94% of time, indicating they did pretty ok compared to percieved opinions, again not saying Draper should have polled the 3 in Rd 1 or anything like that, and yes Macrae obviously should have polled in Rd 6, Henderson/Duncan Rd 6 etc. but anyway jusy my 2 cents, thanks again to everybody who posted and hopefully next year is good as well

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I can't remember which game but he definitely got a BOG in a game where he had only 24 touches or so and didn't kick any goals

I correctly predicted him getting 3 that game. Impact in game doesn't necessarily correlate with possession numbers. SB generously offered $15 on that game (rnd 6 v Bris)

 

[Prochard123]

I correctly predicted him getting 3 that game. Impact in game doesn't necessarily correlate with possession numbers. SB generously offered $15 on that game (rnd 6 v Bris)

He's talking about the 3 voter in round 4, not round 6.

Walsh had 33 touches and a goal in round 6 against Brisbane.

You had Walsh with 0 votes in round 4, where he collected 24 disposals and 0 goal.

 

[Prochard123]

On a different note, Pendlebury is currently the player with the most number of Brownlow votes in the history of AFL without winning the medal once himself.

 

[salaterra]

For me there was enough reason to avoid Macrae in any bets this year.

You seem like a glass half-empty guy.
I post it when I post it, if it helps some people it's better than helping nobody at all.
You also assume that I would have betted it myself 4 weeks ago.
Not everyone does their research and bets that early.
Even if I did, there's no real onus on me to post it early.

And I'm pretty sure there was more than enough material from other posters here 4 weeks ago to help those people, "haha".

Yeah good point, I just found it strange that people in general placed bets last week, instead of 3 weeks ago, when the season ended, and the odds were twice as high, piece of advice for next year I guess. Yeah I lost so much potential winnings because of all my mid season bets on macrae top 20, we are talking about a record breaking disposal season in a side that was top 4 for 90% of the season, completely robbed in 3-4 games of a vote or two in each, crazy!

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

He's talking about the 3 voter in round 4, not round 6.

Walsh had 33 touches and a goal in round 6 against Brisbane.

You had Walsh with 0 votes in round 4, where he collected 24 disposals and 0 goal.

You are correct on all counts there - my apologies.

 

[EFL Boy]

Hey all!

Just a heads up for next year, LucasParker, salaterra and whichever other alternate account he is using…

This guy made a discord a month or so ago, invited a few of us who shared our counts throughout the year on it. We shared our counts, team votes, halfway leaders etc. and he didn’t share a single piece of information and dodged the question whenever asked. Constantly refused to show any sense of accountability and ignored anything in relation to him sharing his own information. He has since deleted the discord.

Lesson learnt for myself next year, if someone is creating a discord, make sure they share their own info first and don’t leech/mooch off of others.

Just a heads up for next year

Been a hugely fun ride throughout the year, but this was a disappointing way to end it.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Hey all!

Just a heads up for next year, LucasParker, salaterra and whichever other alternate account he is using…

This guy made a discord a month or so ago, invited a few of us who shared our counts throughout the year on it. We shared our counts, team votes, halfway leaders etc. and he didn’t share a single piece of information and dodged the question whenever asked. Constantly refused to show any sense of accountability and ignored anything in relation to him sharing his own information. He has since deleted the discord.

Lesson learnt for myself next year, if someone is creating a discord, make sure they share their own info first and don’t leech/mooch off of others.

Just a heads up for next year

Been a hugely fun ride throughout the year, but this was a disappointing way to end it.

An unfortunate sidelight of things like this. Both of those accounts are fairly new which - in hindsight - is a warning point.

Hence why I was very reluctant to share any information over PM to a number of accounts who were only started very recently. This site has a great community of longer term members who have demonstrated their ability over the years to share things publicly in a thread like this which is what I like in many ways.

There was more than the odd PM to me which might as well have signed off with their employers name such was the giveaway of the wording/post history.

 

[Prochard123]

Also why is my question asking if Petracca was top 10 pinned to the thread lol

This happened seconds after brownlow finished when all the counts weren't updated. And the screenshot I replied to didn't show 11 - 20, so you couldn't tell if 11th was also on 23 votes

Very strange thing to do but ok

 

[NonPhixion]

Hey all!

Just a heads up for next year, LucasParker, salaterra and whichever other alternate account he is using…

This guy made a discord a month or so ago, invited a few of us who shared our counts throughout the year on it. We shared our counts, team votes, halfway leaders etc. and he didn’t share a single piece of information and dodged the question whenever asked. Constantly refused to show any sense of accountability and ignored anything in relation to him sharing his own information. He has since deleted the discord.

Lesson learnt for myself next year, if someone is creating a discord, make sure they share their own info first and don’t leech/mooch off of others.

Just a heads up for next year

Been a hugely fun ride throughout the year, but this was a disappointing way to end it.

Yep - fake prick

Balmain you know what to do here

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Yep - fake prick

Balmain you know what to do here

Yep was a dog act.