2021 Draft and Trade thread

[Clarkythelion]

For some fun I went through the AFL AA Squad to see where everyone was drafted

Adelaide Crows: Rory Laird (No. 5, 2011 rookie draft), Paul Seedsman (No. 76, 2010 national draft)
Brisbane Lions: Charlie Cameron (No. 7, 2013 rookie draft), Jarryd Lyons (No. 61, 2010 national draft), Hugh McCluggage (No. 3, 2016 national draft), Daniel Rich (No. 7, 2008 national draft), Dayne Zorko (2011 QLD Zone Selection, Gold Coast)
Carlton: Harry McKay (No. 10, 2015 national draft), Sam Walsh (No. 1, 2018 national draft), Jacob Weitering (No. 1, 2015 national draft)
Collingwood: Nil
Essendon: Zach Merrett (No. 26, 2013 national draft), Darcy Parish (No. 5, 2015 national draft), Jake Stringer (No. 5, 2012 national draft)
Fremantle: Sean Darcy (No. 38, 2016 national draft), David Mundy (No. 19, 2003 national draft)
Geelong Cats: Tom Stewart (No. 40, 2016 national draft), Tom Hawkins (No. 41 (F/S), 2006 national draft)
Gold Coast Suns: Touk Miller (No. 29 2014 AFL Draft)
GWS Giants: Toby Greene (No. 11, 2011 national draft), Jacob Hopper (No. 7, 2015 national draft)
Hawthorn: Tom Mitchell (No. 21 (F/S), 2011 national draft)
Melbourne: Bayley Fritsch (No. 31, 2017 national draft), Max Gawn (No. 34, 2009 national draft), Jake Lever (No. 14, 2014 national draft), Steven May (Priority zone selection, Gold Coast), Clayton Oliver (No. 4, 2015 national draft), Christian Petracca (No. 2, 2014 national draft), Christian Salem (No. 9, 2013 national draft)
North Melbourne: Nil
Port Adelaide: Aliir Aliir (No. 44, 2013 national draft), Karl Amon (No. 68, 2013 National Draft), Ollie Wines (No. 7, 2012 national draft)
Richmond: Nil
St Kilda: Jack Steele (No. 24, 2014 national draft)
Sydney Swans: Lance Franklin (No. 5, 2004 national draft), Callum Mills (No. 3, 2015 national draft), Tom Papley (14th selection 2016 Rookie Draft), Luke Parker (No. 40, 2010 National Draft)
West Coast Eagles: Nic Naitanui (No. 2, 2008 national draft)

Red bolded = top 10 picks = 14 all up out of 40.
If we assume that players are elite/at their peak in the 23-30 age bracket. There would be 70 eligible top 10 picks that are approximately somewhere at their peak performance. If you had a 50% shot at picking an All-Australian with a top 10 pick you should expect around 35 all australian players coming out of top 10 picks per year.

I personally think drafting and draft picks are over-rated (at least by fans).

I think drafting is invaluable in leagues like the NBA and NFL were players have fully matured, played college level professional sports against mature men and hence you can actually track their progress and likely output in the league. Drafting in the AFL is a massive crap shoot as you are drafting 18 year olds who have barely played against significant opposition, in minor rarely professional environments, and have had variable physical development. You get the Josh Schache types who physically dominate in their younger years but cannot bring that same game to the AFL level. You get the Nat Fyfe types who look like they are just coming out of primary school who then go on to actually physically develop in their late teens, early twenties.

The other value of drafting in sports like the NFL is the fixed contracts. You can draft a Patrick Mahomes type that seriously overproduces but only pay them rookie level wages for the first 5 years before stumping out the cash. We don't get that advantage in the AFL as the contracts run out after 2 years. If you draft a Cerra who is producing adequately, you end up having to pay a massive contract anyway after 2 years.

I think the biggest money-ball type moves to really accelerate a list is trading. Trading in a player that is willing to take less money for more opportunity or other externalities outside of the cap (medical care, privacy, playing under a certain coach, premierships etc) is how you keep winning. All out drafting (like GCS) or overpaying players (like Carlton) is a recipe for mediocrity. The Cats keep bringing in players like Dangerfield, Rowan, Touhey, Cameron for less than market salary enables them to have a dominant top 30 squad.

I would personally be happy if the Lions would trade in targeted players every year and then move their remaining picks to as high as possible to fill out the list with the best available talent.

great work

 

[dlanod]

Individual threads are now available given it's the off-season.

 

[ZoBlitz]

Could have saved 111 pages if we did things my way...

 

[dlanod]

Could have saved 111 pages if we did things my way...

All those electrons wasted?

Hey guys, you heard ZoBlitz - he's in charge of these threads next year. Any questions or complaints, make sure you message him. A lot.

 

[ZoBlitz]

All those electrons wasted?

Hey guys, you heard ZoBlitz - he's in charge of these threads next year. Any questions or complaints, make sure you message him. A lot.

Ah, dammit!