Analysis Season 2024 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Nunez]

Browny wheeling out the big stats tonight on couch

View attachment 2069958

 

[Dalions]

From memory the last time we went on a 9 game winning streak was in our first year of being good again in 2019.
Starting after a pantsing at the hands of Carlton just before the bye and we got our 9th win in a row in the famous Lincoln McCarthy

11

Lincoln Mccarthy

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.9

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.1

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.3

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.0

1star

Mark and Goal at the Gabba against Geelong with a one point win. But then falling at the hands of eventual Premiers Richmond the next week at the G by 27 points.

This year our run started after a pantsing at the hands of the Hawks at Marvel before the bye (once again) and our 9th win with a trouncing of the Saints also at Marvel?

Can we succeed this time in getting our 10th straight win against GWS who gave us a walloping earlier in the year?

Just going off memory for this and can’t remember having gone 10 wins straight since?

 

[Nathan Barley]

From memory the last time we went on a 9 game winning streak was in our first year of being good again in 2019.
Starting after a pantsing at the hands of Carlton just before the bye and we got our 9th win in a row in the famous Lincoln McCarthy Mark and Goal at the Gabba against Geelong with a one point win. But then falling at the hands of eventual Premiers Richmond the next week at the G by 27 points.

This year our run started after a pantsing at the hands of the Hawks at Marvel before the bye (once again) and our 9th win with a trouncing of the Saints also at Marvel?

Can we succeed this time in getting our 10th straight win against GWS who gave us a walloping earlier in the year?

Just going off memory for this and can’t remember having gone 10 wins straight since?

There's an article on the Lions website. We did it twice under lethal including the 20 game streak from 2001 to 2002

 

[Section 5]

From memory the last time we went on a 9 game winning streak was in our first year of being good again in 2019.
Starting after a pantsing at the hands of Carlton just before the bye and we got our 9th win in a row in the famous Lincoln McCarthy Mark and Goal at the Gabba against Geelong with a one point win. But then falling at the hands of eventual Premiers Richmond the next week at the G by 27 points.

This year our run started after a pantsing at the hands of the Hawks at Marvel before the bye (once again) and our 9th win with a trouncing of the Saints also at Marvel?

Can we succeed this time in getting our 10th straight win against GWS who gave us a walloping earlier in the year?

Just going off memory for this and can’t remember having gone 10 wins straight since?

From AFL Tables

 

[Grasshopper17]

Convinced we are playing better away than home this year.

Thought this warranted an analysis.

Home scores this year:
85-86
72-92
37-63
79-45
163-44
126-106
86-81
97-86
79-77

That's 6 wins and 3 losses with a percentage of 121.2%.

Away scores this year:
70-93
112-42
82-60
59-113
90-90
75-100
114-71
152-73
106-93
93-65
124-39

That's 7.5 wins and 3.5 losses with a percentage of 128.4%.

So yes, looking at the scores we've actually performed better away than at home this season so far.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Thought this warranted an analysis.

Home scores this year:
85-86
72-92
37-63
79-45
163-44
126-106
86-81
97-86
79-77

That's 6 wins and 3 losses with a percentage of 121.2%.

Away scores this year:
70-93
112-42
82-60
59-113
90-90
75-100
114-71
152-73
106-93
93-65
124-39

That's 7.5 wins and 3.5 losses with a percentage of 128.4%.

So yes, looking at the scores we've actually performed better away than at home this season so far.

Quality of opposition?

Quick scan is probably even home and away

 

[Grasshopper17]

Quality of opposition?

Quick scan is probably even home and away

I actually reviewed this via my seedings model, which takes into account quality of opposition, and it was actually even more pronounced in favour of our away form.

So for simplicity I kept it out of the above analysis.

 

[Elixuh]

I actually reviewed this via my seedings model, which takes into account quality of opposition, and it was actually even more pronounced in favour of our away form.

So for simplicity I kept it out of the above analysis.

Can you breakdown your model. You had the Bulldogs as a top team when they looked like spuds and now they're probably equal favourites to win the flag. They called you a madman. I called you a witch. In different times you'd be in big trouble...

 

[M Malice]

I actually reviewed this via my seedings model, which takes into account quality of opposition, and it was actually even more pronounced in favour of our away form.

We can count our lucky starts the the Grand Final is at the MCG this year and not the Gabba.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Can you breakdown your model. You had the Bulldogs as a top team when they looked like spuds and now they're probably equal favourites to win the flag. They called you a madman. I called you a witch. In different times you'd be in big trouble...

View attachment 2071137

Detective BRAB already uncovered it as being fake so you're probably best going to him for further details on that

 

[KissKiss]

One-on-one? Good luck getting past this Lions marking machine

Harris Andrews has been almost impenetrable this season, conceding only two marks across 76 one-on-one contests

www.afl.com.au

Not the deepest analysis but Harris getting some love for his defensive stats

 

[Tom14]

One-on-one? Good luck getting past this Lions marking machine

Harris Andrews has been almost impenetrable this season, conceding only two marks across 76 one-on-one contests

www.afl.com.au

Not the deepest analysis but Harris getting some love for his defensive stats

Hmmmm no jacket Jacob weitering totally absent from the article in terms of intercept marks and intercept possessions.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Hmmmm no jacket Jacob weitering totally absent from the article in terms of intercept marks and intercept possessions.

He's listed in one of the tables.

 

[Tom14]

He's listed in one of the tables.

Yes for one on one loss percentage - which he’s always been good at. But I don’t think following Charlie Dixon around and shutting him out actually offers a heap of value to the blues.

Intercept marking and intercept possessions, he’s not doing as much as other top tier key defenders.

Thought this clip of Jordan Lewis from earlier this week was a good description of the issue with Carlton’s defence as a whole:

 

[BRAB]

Detective BRAB already uncovered it as being fake so you're probably best going to him for further details on that

I was just joking please stop getting angry at me

 

[Elixuh]

I was just joking please stop getting angry at me

Jokes hurt BRAB. Apologise to this good man and his model.

 

[BRAB]

Jokes hurt BRAB. Apologise to this good man and his model.

I only apologise to things that are real

 

[dlanod]

I only apologise to things that are real

And that's why I'm not apologising for the Lions killing the Suns' finals hopes.

 

[Dalions]

 

[M Malice]

IIRC only 1 Premier has been out of that window this century??

It would be good to see how that window is looking over the last 6 rounds or so, I'd assume we would still be right in it.

 

[Grasshopper17]

IIRC only 1 Premier has been out of that window this century??

It would be good to see how that window is looking over the last 6 rounds or so, I'd assume we would still be right in it.

My understanding is that all have been above the line, while 2 have been to the left of the window.

 

[Dalions]

My understanding is that all have been above the line, while 2 have been to the left of the window.

You mean the Saints still have a chance?

 

[Nathan Barley]

Daniher has now moved into first in the real Coleman, first for shots on goal

 

[Tom14]

Over 1.5 expected wins ahead of second place

 

[McIvor]