Fantasy 2021 - EMPIRE League - Discussion

[Exe Gesis]

What's not to understand? If GG can offer a conditional pick for Tua why can't I offer one for Kyle Pitts for eg? He hasn't played a down in the NFL and could end up a spud so why should I have to fork out 2 1sts or whatever the asking price might be if he turns to sh*t. I'm not saying it should be part of every trade, just available to everyone or not available to anyone.

Of course it would be available for everyone. Neednt worry about that.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

What's not to understand? If GG can offer a conditional pick for Tua why can't I offer one for Kyle Pitts for eg? He hasn't played a down in the NFL and could end up a spud so why should I have to fork out 2 1sts or whatever the asking price might be if he turns to sh*t. I'm not saying it should be part of every trade, just available to everyone or not available to anyone.

Trades should be gambles. It's a pussy like stipulation for those who can't handle the swings. I bet you buy insurance against the dealer having blackjack also.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Using Pitts in the example above, if owned Pitts and you wanted a conditional pick as protection you'll be paying far more up front for him than I'd sell for without, making the conditional pick you asked for absolutely pointless.

 

[LennyHayes77]

Trades should be gambles. It's a pussy like stipulation for those who can't handle the swings. I bet you buy insurance against the dealer having blackjack also.

Haha I don't even have car insurance!

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Haha I don't even have car insurance!

Wow , you're so risky Lenny!

 

[Dagless]

Perhaps your reputation served you well on this instance and that's why Dagless came in with a big offer.

While next year's class might be weaker, the positive being that scouts will have a far easier time identifying talent than this seasons.

My offer was based on my perspective of where I attribute value.

Next years draft class looks pretty meh like this year, and a few other recent years. So I’m not expecting much depth coming to mid-late 2nds, which are worth more as trade value rather than tangible assets.


Yes there is some value floating through there, but nothing I’m particularly interested in betting on consistently year to year.

Sermon, don’t love the player but I’m willing to bet on situation. And I think the relative depth I have across my 1-13 OP squad means multiple picks through there aren’t worth much offensively, and I’m terrible at drafting IDPs preferring auction or waivers.

Not saying I won the trade by any means, I just think it’s a matter of perspective. Assuming the three 2nds I have ‘average out’ to mid seconds, if it was a 12 team league, I gave up 3.02-3.05 or so for 2.04. In a year where I’m not expecting much and I still have two actual firsts, that’s fine by me.

Lastly, I think the league has proven that it’s pretty happy to move value around when push comes to shove, and a 2nd isn’t too hard to move back into.

All this is to show that no one knows anything at the end of the day, and I don’t think BPG asks for that much. Just has his own perspective.

I would say the grudge holders are the hardest to trade with…

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

My offer was based on my perspective of where I attribute value.

Next years draft class looks pretty meh like this year, and a few other recent years. So I’m not expecting much depth coming to mid-late 2nds, which are worth more as trade value rather than tangible assets.


Yes there is some value floating through there, but nothing I’m particularly interested in betting on consistently year to year.

Sermon, don’t love the player but I’m willing to bet on situation. And I think the relative depth I have across my 1-13 OP squad means multiple picks through there aren’t worth much offensively, and I’m terrible at drafting IDPs preferring auction or waivers.

Not saying I won the trade by any means, I just think it’s a matter of perspective. Assuming the three 2nds I have ‘average out’ to mid seconds, if it was a 12 team league, I gave up 3.02-3.05 or so for 2.04. In a year where I’m not expecting much and I still have two actual firsts, that’s fine by me.

Lastly, I think the league has proven that it’s pretty happy to move value around when push comes to shove, and a 2nd isn’t too hard to move back into.

All this is to show that no one knows anything at the end of the day, and I don’t think BPG asks for that much. Just has his own perspective.

I would say the grudge holders are the hardest to trade with…

My thoughts on the SF situation is different. When Lance becomes QB I wouldn't expect anything close to the same output that their RBs get now, could be more of a Allen w/Singletary & Moss situation with him stealing goal line carries from them. Maybe I'm wrong , but I could absolutely see that happening.

Im swimming against the tide on it , but I had Carter well ahead of Sermon in my RB ratings because of that fear.

 

[drd23]

Im swimming against the tide on it , but I had Carter well ahead of Sermon in my RB ratings because of that fear.

Carter is just as likely as Perine was to work out (i.e. not very)

 

[LennyHayes77]

Carter is just as likely as Perine was to work out (i.e. not very)

I think you mean he's the Kamara

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Carter is just as likely as Perine was to work out (i.e. not very)

Na, Carter is a better pass catcher so he has a nice safe floor in a Shanahan offense with Zach as QB.

 

[drd23]

These are the last 32 RBs drafted in the 4th round (not including 2021):

Spoiler

2020

	10​	4​	6​	112​	Joshua Kelley​	Chargers​	UCLA​
	11​	4​	14​	120​	Lamical Perine​	Jets​	Florida​
	12​	4​	18​	124​	Anthony McFarland​	Steelers​	Maryland​
	13​	4​	38​	144​	DeeJay Dallas​	Seahawks​	Miami (FL)​

2019

	8​	4​	10​	112​	Bryce Love​	Redskins​	Stanford​
	9​	4​	11​	113​	Justice Hill​	Ravens​	Oklahoma State​
	10​	4​	20​	122​	Benny Snell​	Steelers​	Kentucky​
	11​	4​	26​	128​	Tony Pollard​	Cowboys​	Memphis​

2018

	9​	4​	4​	104​	Nyheim Hines​	Colts​	North Carolina State​
	10​	4​	12​	112​	Mark Walton​	Bengals​	Miami (FL)​
	11​	4​	26​	126​	Ito Smith​	Falcons​	Southern Mississippi​
	12​	4​	31​	131​	Kalen Ballage​	Dolphins​	Arizona State​
	13​	4​	34​	134​	Chase Edmonds​	Cardinals​	Fordham​

2017

	9​	4​	7​	114​	Samaje Perine​	Redskins​	Oklahoma​
	10​	4​	13​	119​	Tarik Cohen​	Bears​	North Carolina A&T​
	11​	4​	15​	121​	Joe Williams​	49ers​	Utah​
	12​	4​	26​	132​	Donnel Pumphrey​	Eagles​	San Diego State​
	13​	4​	28​	134​	Jamaal Williams​	Packers​	Brigham Young​
	14​	4​	34​	140​	Wayne Gallman​	Giants​	Clemson​
	15​	4​	37​	143​	Marlon Mack​	Colts​	South Florida​

2016

	5​	4​	21​	119​	Tyler Ervin​	Texans​	San Jose State​
	6​	4​	36​	134​	Kenneth Dixon​	Ravens​	Louisiana Tech​
	7​	4​	38​	136​	Devontae Booker​	Broncos​	Utah​

2015

	9​	4​	7​	106​	Jeremy Langford​	Bears​	Michigan State​
	10​	4​	9​	108​	Jalston Fowler​	Titans​	Alabama​
	11​	4​	26​	125​	Javorius Allen​	Ravens​	USC​
	12​	4​	27​	126​	Mike Davis​	49ers​	South Carolina​

2014

	9​	4​	3​	103​	Devonta Freeman​	Falcons​	Florida State​
	10​	4​	13​	113​	Andre Williams​	Giants​	Boston College​
	11​	4​	17​	117​	Ka'Deem Carey​	Bears​	Arizona​
	12​	4​	24​	124​	De'Anthony Thomas​	Chiefs​	Oregon​
	13​	4​	30​	130​	James White​	Patriots​	Wisconsin​

Of that lot, I think there's 2 RBs (Devonta Freeman & Tarik Cohen) that have provided 3 RB1 level fantasy seasons, plus a handful of others that have been decent RBBC guys.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

These are the last 32 RBs drafted in the 4th round (not including 2021):

Spoiler

2020

​

	10​	4​	6​	112​	Joshua Kelley​	Chargers​	UCLA​
	11​	4​	14​	120​	Lamical Perine​	Jets​	Florida​
	12​	4​	18​	124​	Anthony McFarland​	Steelers​	Maryland​
	13​	4​	38​	144​	DeeJay Dallas​	Seahawks​	Miami (FL)​

2019

​

	8​	4​	10​	112​	Bryce Love​	Redskins​	Stanford​
	9​	4​	11​	113​	Justice Hill​	Ravens​	Oklahoma State​
	10​	4​	20​	122​	Benny Snell​	Steelers​	Kentucky​
	11​	4​	26​	128​	Tony Pollard​	Cowboys​	Memphis​

2018

​

	9​	4​	4​	104​	Nyheim Hines​	Colts​	North Carolina State​
	10​	4​	12​	112​	Mark Walton​	Bengals​	Miami (FL)​
	11​	4​	26​	126​	Ito Smith​	Falcons​	Southern Mississippi​
	12​	4​	31​	131​	Kalen Ballage​	Dolphins​	Arizona State​
	13​	4​	34​	134​	Chase Edmonds​	Cardinals​	Fordham​

2017

​

	9​	4​	7​	114​	Samaje Perine​	Redskins​	Oklahoma​
	10​	4​	13​	119​	Tarik Cohen​	Bears​	North Carolina A&T​
	11​	4​	15​	121​	Joe Williams​	49ers​	Utah​
	12​	4​	26​	132​	Donnel Pumphrey​	Eagles​	San Diego State​
	13​	4​	28​	134​	Jamaal Williams​	Packers​	Brigham Young​
	14​	4​	34​	140​	Wayne Gallman​	Giants​	Clemson​
	15​	4​	37​	143​	Marlon Mack​	Colts​	South Florida​

2016

​

	5​	4​	21​	119​	Tyler Ervin​	Texans​	San Jose State​
	6​	4​	36​	134​	Kenneth Dixon​	Ravens​	Louisiana Tech​
	7​	4​	38​	136​	Devontae Booker​	Broncos​	Utah​

2015

​

	9​	4​	7​	106​	Jeremy Langford​	Bears​	Michigan State​
	10​	4​	9​	108​	Jalston Fowler​	Titans​	Alabama​
	11​	4​	26​	125​	Javorius Allen​	Ravens​	USC​
	12​	4​	27​	126​	Mike Davis​	49ers​	South Carolina​

2014

​

	9​	4​	3​	103​	Devonta Freeman​	Falcons​	Florida State​
	10​	4​	13​	113​	Andre Williams​	Giants​	Boston College​
	11​	4​	17​	117​	Ka'Deem Carey​	Bears​	Arizona​
	12​	4​	24​	124​	De'Anthony Thomas​	Chiefs​	Oregon​
	13​	4​	30​	130​	James White​	Patriots​	Wisconsin​

Of that lot, I think there's 2 RBs (Devonta Freeman & Tarik Cohen) that have provided 3 RB1 level fantasy seasons, plus a handful of others that have been decent RBBC guys.

I never buy into this , reckon it's garbage honestly. Situation and type of offense far more important.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Carter's competition for touches and relevance is about as good as you can possibly get for a rookie taken in the fourth round.

 

[drd23]

I never buy into this , reckon it's garbage honestly. Situation and type of offense far more important.

I'd argue that talent is far more important

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I'd argue that talent is far more important

If you think Sermon has a clear talent edge on SFs mega squad of running backs I beg to differ. I think Carter has a far bigger edge on his competition than Sermon does

 

[drd23]

If you think Sermon has a clear talent edge on SFs mega squad of running backs I beg to differ. I think Carter has a far bigger edge on his competition than Sermon does

Where did I say anything about Sermon? I don't think he has any better of a chance of working out than Carter does.

I agree with the bolded, but in the off-chance they both come out on top of their position battles, its easier to project how Sermon will do than Carter, because nobody knows how successful the Jets offense will be, even with a LaFleur running things.

FWIW The track record of late 3rd round picks (like Sermon was) isn't much better.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Where did I say anything about Sermon? I don't think he has any better of a chance of working out than Carter does.

I agree with the bolded, but in the off-chance they both come out on top of their position battles, its easier to project how Sermon will do than Carter, because nobody knows how successful the Jets offense will be, even with a LaFleur running things.

FWIW The track record of late 3rd round picks (like Sermon was) isn't much better.

You initially quoted my post saying that I had Carter well ahead of Sermon. That's what I've been arguing about, just comparing the two.

 

[Dagless]

My thoughts on the SF situation is different. When Lance becomes QB I wouldn't expect anything close to the same output that their RBs get now, could be more of a Allen w/Singletary & Moss situation with him stealing goal line carries from them. Maybe I'm wrong , but I could absolutely see that happening.

Im swimming against the tide on it , but I had Carter well ahead of Sermon in my RB ratings because of that fear.

I think Shanny is far too invested in the zone to tank their value that much compared to Buffalos scheme which is still player dependent.

Ultimately, Im betting on Sermon holding that bucket within the next two years compared to Carter, who needs to produce this year to have any long term value. Otherwise a fourth is easy to replace in the draft when RBS fal to the 2nd/3rd. I think Sermon will be there at the start of next year in a good position in most situations.

And this is sort of proving my interpretation of 2nd round draft picks. It’s all well and good to want to roll dice, with one, two of a batch panning out. But they just don’t often enough to value them that highly for fantasy relevance.

 

[bgt2110]

Let’s switch discussion from RB to WR. Surely Nico Collins is the steal of the draft in the 3rd round. He, Lindsay and Tyrod/Mills going to drive the Texans offence to new heights this season.

 

[Dagless]

Let’s switch discussion from RB to WR. Surely Nico Collins is the steal of the draft in the 3rd round. He, Lindsay and Tyrod/Mills going to drive the Texans offence to new heights this season.

He was drafted by the Texans, removing all possible sleeper status he may have had 15 years ago.

Offensive picks for value per round in 3 plus years time;

Waddle
Toney
Palmer
Harris
Stevenson
No one

Fight me

 

[bgt2110]

He was drafted by the Texans, removing all possible sleeper status he may have had 15 years ago.

Offensive picks for value per round in 3 plus years time;

Waddle
Toney
Palmer
Harris
Stevenson
No one

Fight me

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I think Shanny is far too invested in the zone to tank their value that much compared to Buffalos scheme which is still player dependent.

Ultimately, Im betting on Sermon holding that bucket within the next two years compared to Carter, who needs to produce this year to have any long term value. Otherwise a fourth is easy to replace in the draft when RBS fal to the 2nd/3rd. I think Sermon will be there at the start of next year in a good position in most situations.

And this is sort of proving my interpretation of 2nd round draft picks. It’s all well and good to want to roll dice, with one, two of a batch panning out. But they just don’t often enough to value them that highly for fantasy relevance.

I wouldn't put anything past the ego of Kyle who hates predictability as is, he's never had a mobile QB like Lance before.Time will tell I guess.

 

[drd23]

He was drafted by the Texans, removing all possible sleeper status he may have had 15 years ago.

Offensive picks for value per round in 3 plus years time;

Waddle
Toney
Palmer
Harris
Stevenson
No one

Fight me

Had to slip in the homer pick

 

[Dagless]

Had to slip in the homer pick

More an indictment of what I think about the second round, so would prefer supreme burnout upside there.

But I also loved Harvin so what do I know.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

More an indictment of what I think about the second round, so would prefer supreme burnout upside there.

But I also loved Harvin so what do I know.

Shi Smith in round 6 is value city. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a bigger part of our offense this year than Marshall. Marshall the far better long term prospect however, just think Shi the better slot receiver so he should get opportunity in year 1 to prove he belongs, looking great in mini camp #minicamphypeisrealyhype