Trades 2021 Round 4 Fantasy Trades

[JDWCE]

Notice you mentioned Williams and Scrimshaw there. Cumming is outdoing both of those atm for a far cheaper price point. Is it possible this is Cummings breakout year? I just want to do whatever possible to not have to field a rookie in the backline as I already have Webster at D6 who’s not great. Don’t want him at D5 and a rookie at D6

Keep in mind scrimshaw has a sub affected game in his average

 

[Thetrader15]

Not knowing if Robertson is going be playing is a bit of a pain in the ass, as my preferred fallback is Hind.
Hold the line I guess?

The only issue is you won't know if Robo is playing until after Hind has played...don't we love rolling lockouts!

 

[Milo Cyrus]

The only issue is you won't know if Robo is playing until after Hind has played...don't we love rolling lockouts!

Yep, I'm just gonna roll with Witts > Hind and see what presents.

 

[forlols]

Young to Cumming or Zac Williams?

 

[TedDougChris]

Young to Cumming or Zac Williams?

Williams is likely to be a keeper, so I’d be stretching to there if you can

 

[Quazza]

Hi Gaiz.

I'm completely at a loss this week trade wise. Nothing jumping out at me outside of Scholl (trap I fell for ) to Lukoscious (best I can afford) Any ideas welcome (D5-6 definitely needs addressing )

169k in bank

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Ridley or Mills?

Am leaning Ridley because he seems to be a bit underpriced, but I also recognise that the Swans have been hard to score against. I guess Bowes is another option there too? But worried that as the Suns' season derails they'll try a few more things out that could impact his role?

I chose Ridley last week and getting Mills this week.

Ridley is awesome takes every kick out and plays on. Gets the switch kicks and no chance of a tag.

Mills should be getting DPP so good for flex, he is playing full time mid now so averaging a bit more ball and is always going to be around it.

If you don't care about DPP go Ridley

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Ridley or Mills?

Am leaning Ridley because he seems to be a bit underpriced, but I also recognise that the Swans have been hard to score against. I guess Bowes is another option there too? But worried that as the Suns' season derails they'll try a few more things out that could impact his role?

With Jack Bowes, great player will play half back all year. He love his composure with the football and will be our main kick-out specialist. We so far aren't a good enough team to get junk so i feel his ceiling may be capped.

 

[Milo Cyrus]

Hi Gaiz.

I'm completely at a loss this week trade wise. Nothing jumping out at me outside of Scholl (trap I fell for ) to Lukoscious (best I can afford) Any ideas welcome (D5-6 definitely needs addressing )

169k in bank

View attachment 1096644View attachment 1096645

Sholl plays the Roos this week, so should score ok you'd think? Couple of rookie swaps at D5-D8 as teams get named - Parks, Burgess, Richmond rook announced. or hang tough for a couple of weeks and Hind will be able to slot back at D6. Where are you ranked ? It looks like you've made a good start.

 

[Rion]

Really hope Highmore is named. Probably still gonna have to get Burgess but getting a bit antsy over the talk of him sharing the ruck role/just pinch hitting with Graham around. Him on field even for the two weeks before I can shift Hind back there might be pretty gross.

 

[samFFC]

Ridley or Mills?

Am leaning Ridley because he seems to be a bit underpriced, but I also recognise that the Swans have been hard to score against. I guess Bowes is another option there too? But worried that as the Suns' season derails they'll try a few more things out that could impact his role?

Ridley for the season long points
Bowes a nice POD

Have up to 720k to bring in a defender for young. Who?
At the moment i'm leaning cumming, BE of 19 and should still make some cash while averaging 80ish

Get a premo. Ridley?

 

[Shadow89]

Advise a lot of peeps here not to trade in any Swans/Dons/ players, this week, if at all possible.

Team sheets will be very interesting I'd say, so if you can wait 'til 6:30 or so on Friday night, you'll at least have all the Saturday teams and the Friday game won't have started yet - that's the strategy I've been going with anyway

 

[Shadow89]

The guy who won it last year just wrote a great article on DT talk with some very sage advice. Reaffirmed much of my usual trading strategy which has been partly lost with all the mid priced madness of late.

- Mid pricers stuck on no man’s land are first priority to move on. De Goey, Clark etc
- Don’t bring in more mid pricers that will just require more trades later on - Cumming etc
- Trade in keepers & rooks almost exclusively

It’s pretty simple and fundamentally correct. Ultimately he puts a line through the stockmarket game of chasing those mid pricers with low BE’s - people forget about the 2nd part of being tied to future trades. Essentially the goal is finishing your team with keepers faster than everyone else, not chasing the short term points and price increases.

Direct example which I found for me this week: While I still think Tex is a good option, I’ve gone with Hind instead who I missed. Hind I can see becoming a F6 keeper and will hopefully not require a future trade. Whilst Tex likely scores and gains more $ in the next 2 weeks, you’re locking yourself into future trade/s when he inevitably needs to be moved on. Trades that could be used for upgrading elsewhere if you already managed to secure a keeper there in the first place.

I do find this all so interesting, as to be fair, these are the exact same people that advised against having Flynn as your R2 to start the season. Also the same peeps who said not to pick up Tex because 'key forwards are too sporadic.'

Reminds me of those super ads - 'past performance may not be a good indicator of future performance.'

While it is 100% correct a bad idea to be trading in midpricer after midpricer, it's also just as bad - if not worse - an idea to trade in sketchy rooks with questionable JS - especially if you're playing them on field. This is why I'm taking my time with trades this week, as there is an element of 'not wasting trades' that comes into it by trying not to pick the wrong rook that just sits on my pine, makes me no money, and is another wasted trade whenever I want to get a better rook in.

While there are certain things we can rely on, I'm not sure that taking prior year's winners as gospel this year, is the way to go. Selby, the Traders and all and sundry warned against having a rookie in Flynn on your ground - now pretty everyone in the Top 100, if not the top 1000, is doing it.

I gotta say, with the lack of JS for rooks due to the absolute plethora of injuries to Best 22 players during pre-season, returning every week and then kicking them out, it comes back to the age old question in fantasy - what's the value of a trade?

Do you prioritize JS in your rook and pay more, ala Nik Cox in defence...or do you pay less and hope they score better on your ground for a bit, and then can eventually be moved to your bench making slow burning cash increases. Do you use midpricers to 'bridge' the gap, knowing they have solid JS, or do you bite the bullet and trade out those midpricers to a gun/rook and hope that rook doesn't get dropped?

It's tough, and it's an answer I don't have yet, however as a guide, these are the rooks that have already been dropped or injured/will be dropped moving forward/have solid js:

Dropped/injured:

Sharp
Hunter
Highmore
Bergman (should hopefully return this week)
Idun (recalled due to injury)
Evans
Bruhn
Bytel
X. O'Neill (will be recalled this week)


Shaky:

Scott
Kozi
McNeill
Meek
Waterman
Robertson
Lazarro
Berry
Holmes
Brockman
Fullarton
Chapman
Shipley
Parks
T. Berry
W. Phillips
O'Halloran
Martyn


Solid:

Flynn
Jones
Cox
Rowe
Gulden
Warner
Jordon
Powell
Burgess
S. Taylor
Butts
L. McDonald
B. Campbell
L. Young

*****************************

Would you rather pick a rook from that 'shaky' list, or would you rather pick an already inflated rook that you don't have from the 'solid' list, who might only be 100K less now than that midpricer with solid JS and might score terribly too? Or, do you spend that extra 100K, knowing that'll be a forced trade in the future too, but at least making some cash and probably scoring higher in the meantime?

I honestly don't think it's as clear cut as it was in previous seasons - given all the different machinations surrounding the rules, the dearth of rooks with solid JS, and the insane injury list during pre-season that makes it hard to pencil in any rookies, as there's just so many good players coming back.

As with everything fantasy, time will tell, haha

 

[Shadow89]

Urgh lads I'm really stuck between a couple of options and could really do with some thoughts!

I've been hit by the Witts/Young double and can't see a path to get both out this week AND get Witts to Gawn (I already own Grundy). Because I don't trust Highmore and Kosi to cover Young, I see him as must trade this week. Flynn can cover as R2 for the week. So:

1) Young to Chapman; Kosi to Burgess.
This seems to be relatively safe. It nets about 100k and I think Chapman has decent JS and can match Young's output, while generating cash. I'm pretty meh about the Kosi to Burgess trade. I'd have enough cash to then upgrade Witts to Marshall next week... but again not to Gawn.

2) Witts to Hickey; Young to Cumming/Chapman.
I feel particularly meh about this. I really don't love the Witts to Hickey move, but if I do this and the Young to Chapman I have about $250k to get some upgrades going next week.

3) Young to Chapman; JDG to Waterman/Robertson.
This would give me $475k for a double upgrade next week. So Witts to Gawn and maybe like a Stephenson to a Zorko or something. I guess if Highmore/Kosi is named, I could just do Witts to Gawn this week and keep Young on the bench.

Any advice would be much appreciated!

As others have said, get a premo def, and just trade Witts down to Treacy on your bench and play Flynn on field.

A hugely unique option could be to bring in Lloyd, as not a lot of top players have him and he's likely to be Top 6 by season's end. Mills a safe bet with his mid time, or Ridley with his nice role. Docherty if you don't have him could be another good shout, or Bowes.

Just depends on if you want to lock your trades in tomorrow, or if you want to wait til Saturday teams are named and bring in non Swans/Dons premos - which as cruel luck would have it, are the best ones to pick at this time.

 

[joedanihermademecry]

As others have said, get a premo def, and just trade Witts down to Treacy on your bench and play Flynn on field.

A hugely unique option could be to bring in Lloyd, as not a lot of top players have him and he's likely to be Top 6 by season's end. Mills a safe bet with his mid time, or Ridley with his nice role. Docherty if you don't have him could be another good shout, or Bowes.

Just depends on if you want to lock your trades in tomorrow, or if you want to wait til Saturday teams are named and bring in non Swans/Dons premos - which as cruel luck would have it, are the best ones to pick at this time.

Yeah it's really tough with this Thursday fixture. I'm tempted by Bowes, both as a POD and due to the game time. But I probably rate them in order (in terms of season-long output) as Ridley, Mills, Bowes. So I'm basically having the fixture for one round forcing me into picking my least preferred option...

 

[joedanihermademecry]

I do find this all so interesting, as to be fair, these are the exact same people that advised against having Flynn as your R2 to start the season. Also the same peeps who said not to pick up Tex because 'key forwards are too sporadic.'

These are fair criticisms, but I'm still not sure that they were/are entirely wrong. I don't think even the rookie ruck advocates could say that they expected Flynn to have been so reliable. The strategy at the start was basically to rotate between Flynn and Hunter/Meek according to match-up and then jump off when both stopped scoring. And Tex... well it's still only been three rounds! And you wouldn't be jumping on any other key forward right now so I think the general rule still applies.

But on the mid-pricer thing, it's a bit hard to say either way. There is a clear danger in switching between mid-pricers, albeit slightly mitigated because we've got more data on which mid-pricers are actually firing (Hind, Cumming basically). I think the best approach is somewhere in the middle - if you still don't have the midpricers that are clearly showing somethiing then you could safely jump on them over a rookie, but if you're going for a more unproven/one with more inconsistent scoring already then it's not worth the risk.

 

[Quazza]

Sholl plays the Roos this week, so should score ok you'd think? Couple of rookie swaps at D5-D8 as teams get named - Parks, Burgess, Richmond rook announced. or hang tough for a couple of weeks and Hind will be able to slot back at D6. Where are you ranked ? It looks like you've made a good start.

Started terribly but had a good week last week and now around 3k

 

[Thetrader15]

I do find this all so interesting, as to be fair, these are the exact same people that advised against having Flynn as your R2 to start the season. Also the same peeps who said not to pick up Tex because 'key forwards are too sporadic.'

Reminds me of those super ads - 'past performance may not be a good indicator of future performance.'

While it is 100% correct a bad idea to be trading in midpricer after midpricer, it's also just as bad - if not worse - an idea to trade in sketchy rooks with questionable JS - especially if you're playing them on field. This is why I'm taking my time with trades this week, as there is an element of 'not wasting trades' that comes into it by trying not to pick the wrong rook that just sits on my pine, makes me no money, and is another wasted trade whenever I want to get a better rook in.

While there are certain things we can rely on, I'm not sure that taking prior year's winners as gospel this year, is the way to go. Selby, the Traders and all and sundry warned against having a rookie in Flynn on your ground - now pretty everyone in the Top 100, if not the top 1000, is doing it.

I gotta say, with the lack of JS for rooks due to the absolute plethora of injuries to Best 22 players during pre-season, returning every week and then kicking them out, it comes back to the age old question in fantasy - what's the value of a trade?

Do you prioritize JS in your rook and pay more, ala Nik Cox in defence...or do you pay less and hope they score better on your ground for a bit, and then can eventually be moved to your bench making slow burning cash increases. Do you use midpricers to 'bridge' the gap, knowing they have solid JS, or do you bite the bullet and trade out those midpricers to a gun/rook and hope that rook doesn't get dropped?

It's tough, and it's an answer I don't have yet, however as a guide, these are the rooks that have already been dropped or injured/will be dropped moving forward/have solid js:

Dropped/injured:

Sharp
Hunter
Highmore
Bergman (should hopefully return this week)
Idun (recalled due to injury)
Evans
Bruhn
Bytel
X. O'Neill (will be recalled this week)


Shaky:

Scott
Kozi
McNeill
Meek
Waterman
Robertson
Lazarro
Berry
Holmes
Brockman
Fullarton
Chapman
Shipley
Parks
T. Berry
W. Phillips
O'Halloran
Martyn


Solid:

Flynn
Jones
Cox
Rowe
Gulden
Warner
Jordon
Powell
Burgess
S. Taylor
Butts
L. McDonald
B. Campbell
L. Young

*****************************

Would you rather pick a rook from that 'shaky' list, or would you rather pick an already inflated rook that you don't have from the 'solid' list, who might only be 100K less now than that midpricer with solid JS and might score terribly too? Or, do you spend that extra 100K, knowing that'll be a forced trade in the future too, but at least making some cash and probably scoring higher in the meantime?

I honestly don't think it's as clear cut as it was in previous seasons - given all the different machinations surrounding the rules, the dearth of rooks with solid JS, and the insane injury list during pre-season that makes it hard to pencil in any rookies, as there's just so many good players coming back.

As with everything fantasy, time will tell, haha

"Machinations"?...you're Damien Barrett aren't you.

 

[Shadow89]

"Machinations"?...you're Damien Barrett aren't you.

Oh that's such a low blow

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

As a side note - who the hell scheduled swans v bombers for a prime time Thursday night slot after where they were both positioned last year. I thought the messaging had always been teams have to earn those spots not finish bottom 4

 

[Quazza]

Sholl plays the Roos this week, so should score ok you'd think? Couple of rookie swaps at D5-D8 as teams get named - Parks, Burgess, Richmond rook announced. or hang tough for a couple of weeks and Hind will be able to slot back at D6. Where are you ranked ? It looks like you've made a good start.

Started terribly but had a good week last week and now around 3000

As a side note - who the hell scheduled swans v bombers for a prime time Thursday night slot after where they were both positioned last year. I thought the messaging had always been teams have to earn those spots not finish bottom 4

*Laughs in Carlton*

 

[RowellAnderson12]

Advise a lot of peeps here not to trade in any Swans/Dons/ players, this week, if at all possible.

Team sheets will be very interesting I'd say, so if you can wait 'til 6:30 or so on Friday night, you'll at least have all the Saturday teams and the Friday game won't have started yet - that's the strategy I've been going with anyway

Haha whoops i have 8 playing tonight

 

[PAFC27]

Great post Shadow89

 

[Shadow89]

Great post Shadow89

Cheers mate Good to see ya pop your head in, where have you been??

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Really hope Highmore is named. Probably still gonna have to get Burgess but getting a bit antsy over the talk of him sharing the ruck role/just pinch hitting with Graham around. Him on field even for the two weeks before I can shift Hind back there might be pretty gross.

For some reason I'm not as nervous about Burgess at D6. I think I'll risk it on a weekly basis. Gold Coast are going alright this year as well.

Scored 22 as ruck role last week. That means he got 55 from 3 quarters in his forward role!
The burgess of years gone by was a defender spud. So long as he doesn't somehow slot back into that role he might be ok.