Trades 2021 Round 4 Fantasy Trades

[JDWCE]

Think I might give Burgess one more game to watch his role especially with the Graham news. Still have the predicament of Young.

I can move him to Scrimshaw which I think is a good move considering his price. Already have Cumming.

To do that I need to make about 100k off a trade. Which move do people think makes more sense:
Rowe down to waterman
Or Powell down to Robertson
Or Powell down to waterman

Leaning to waterman purely because I think his JS is better. Leaning towards the latter option as well as I think Rowe could go well against kangas this week

 

[One Dimensional]

Think I might give Burgess one more game to watch his role especially with the Graham news. Still have the predicament of Young.

I can move him to Scrimshaw which I think is a good move considering his price. Already have Cumming.

To do that I need to make about 100k off a trade. Which move do people think makes more sense:
Rowe down to waterman
Or Powell down to Robertson
Or Powell down to waterman

Leaning to waterman purely because I think his JS is better. Leaning towards the latter option as well as I think Rowe could go well against kangas this week

It’s a tricky one! I’m in a similar boat where I need to downgrade a rookie who probably still has more money to make to be able to go Young to Cumming.

Despite the match up I actually like Rowe down, rather than Powell. He will probably make more money and is an on field option.

My predicament is:

Rowe to Robertson
Or Berry to Robertson
Or Brockman to Waterman?

 

[PAFC27]

Cheers mate Good to see ya pop your head in, where have you been??

Busting my gut to catch you

 

[TedDougChris]

I do find this all so interesting, as to be fair, these are the exact same people that advised against having Flynn as your R2 to start the season. Also the same peeps who said not to pick up Tex because 'key forwards are too sporadic.'

Reminds me of those super ads - 'past performance may not be a good indicator of future performance.'

While it is 100% correct a bad idea to be trading in midpricer after midpricer, it's also just as bad - if not worse - an idea to trade in sketchy rooks with questionable JS - especially if you're playing them on field. This is why I'm taking my time with trades this week, as there is an element of 'not wasting trades' that comes into it by trying not to pick the wrong rook that just sits on my pine, makes me no money, and is another wasted trade whenever I want to get a better rook in.

While there are certain things we can rely on, I'm not sure that taking prior year's winners as gospel this year, is the way to go. Selby, the Traders and all and sundry warned against having a rookie in Flynn on your ground - now pretty everyone in the Top 100, if not the top 1000, is doing it.

I gotta say, with the lack of JS for rooks due to the absolute plethora of injuries to Best 22 players during pre-season, returning every week and then kicking them out, it comes back to the age old question in fantasy - what's the value of a trade?

Do you prioritize JS in your rook and pay more, ala Nik Cox in defence...or do you pay less and hope they score better on your ground for a bit, and then can eventually be moved to your bench making slow burning cash increases. Do you use midpricers to 'bridge' the gap, knowing they have solid JS, or do you bite the bullet and trade out those midpricers to a gun/rook and hope that rook doesn't get dropped?

It's tough, and it's an answer I don't have yet, however as a guide, these are the rooks that have already been dropped or injured/will be dropped moving forward/have solid js:

Dropped/injured:

Sharp
Hunter
Highmore
Bergman (should hopefully return this week)
Idun (recalled due to injury)
Evans
Bruhn
Bytel
X. O'Neill (will be recalled this week)


Shaky:

Scott
Kozi
McNeill
Meek
Waterman
Robertson
Lazarro
Berry
Holmes
Brockman
Fullarton
Chapman
Shipley
Parks
T. Berry
W. Phillips
O'Halloran
Martyn


Solid:

Flynn
Jones
Cox
Rowe
Gulden
Warner
Jordon
Powell
Burgess
S. Taylor
Butts
L. McDonald
B. Campbell
L. Young

*****************************

Would you rather pick a rook from that 'shaky' list, or would you rather pick an already inflated rook that you don't have from the 'solid' list, who might only be 100K less now than that midpricer with solid JS and might score terribly too? Or, do you spend that extra 100K, knowing that'll be a forced trade in the future too, but at least making some cash and probably scoring higher in the meantime?

I honestly don't think it's as clear cut as it was in previous seasons - given all the different machinations surrounding the rules, the dearth of rooks with solid JS, and the insane injury list during pre-season that makes it hard to pencil in any rookies, as there's just so many good players coming back.

As with everything fantasy, time will tell, haha

Really good post mate !! I was going to write something similar (probably not as well worded and with more gifs - but anyway)....

From my perspective, while I agree with the general idea - dont just endlessly swap midpricers around, I have the following rookies in my side:

Chapman, Idun, Kozi, Sharp, Gulden, Jordan, Campbell, Berry, Powell, Flynn, Warner, Scott, Brockman, Meek

Of these - which of these have peaked in value ?? You could argue that potentially Sharp and Kozi might have, perhaps Meek.

Which breathtakingly good rookies do we have to replace them ? Possibly Waterman, Robertson, Park, Burgess ? If I had three trades and ignoring position - trading Sharp, Kosi, Meek -> Waterman, Roberston, Park nets me the grand total of $42k...

How the hell do I upgrade from that ???

I don't tend to argue with people who have won the whole bloody thing - but the timing of trades and downgrades is critical. If Brisbane were going through an injury crisis - and Robertson was likely guaranteed a game for a month - I'd go Powell to Robertson and net me $100K. To do a nice upgrade, I'm looking at culling a well performing rookie (not peaked yet) or a player like Wicks - who just went 90-odd then 120-odd - for a rookie who might score 40 ??

Timing is everything....

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Really good post mate !! I was going to write something similar (probably not as well worded and with more gifs - but anyway)....

From my perspective, while I agree with the general idea - dont just endlessly swap midpricers around, I have the following rookies in my side:

Chapman, Idun, Kozi, Sharp, Gulden, Jordan, Campbell, Berry, Powell, Flynn, Warner, Scott, Brockman, Meek

Of these - which of these have peaked in value ?? You could argue that potentially Sharp and Kozi might have, perhaps Meek.

Which breathtakingly good rookies do we have to replace them ? Possibly Waterman, Robertson, Park, Burgess ? If I had three trades and ignoring position - trading Sharp, Kosi, Meek -> Waterman, Roberston, Park nets me the grand total of $42k...

How the hell do I upgrade from that ???

I don't tend to argue with people who have won the whole bloody thing - but the timing of trades and downgrades is critical. If Brisbane were going through an injury crisis - and Robertson was likely guaranteed a game for a month - I'd go Powell to Robertson and net me $100K. To do a nice upgrade, I'm looking at culling a well performing rookie (not peaked yet) or a player like Wicks - who just went 90-odd then 120-odd - for a rookie who might score 40 ??

Timing is everything....

Yeah not the biggest of fans of swapping deck chairs around on the titanic so to speak.
Trading Kosi or Highmore as soon as they're dropped accomplishes nothing when the new rookies you're trading to aren't really world beaters. And we make no cash from it. I'm prepared to give them both 2,3 maybe even 4 weeks to get back unless an absolute world beater in defense shows up.

I think trades are too valuable to immediately cull a rookie who's still at a basement price. I almost always give them a couple to get back before burning them.

At the end of the day, with 2x trades it's probably less important to have a full set of 30 green lights week to week as it was with 3x trades. With only 2x trades you can only really average maybe 1x money making money per week. How many weeks can it take for rookies to fatten? Sometimes only 5 or 6 weeks. So rookies you grab now, might be the one you cash in a months time. The turnover is not massive.

I think 1, maybe 2 bench rookie donuts per week is going to be ok this year. We can't chase that as the main focus of our trades, or we'll just be paddling in circles.

In the interim Young -> Burgess is my move as it at least makes some coin. D6 could blow up in my face but even if he scores a 20 this week I can make adjustments next week and bite the bullet and upgrade one of Highmore/Kosi (Probably Highmore if he's out for a second consecutive week).

 

[Neale4brownlow]

I wonder if Downie is a chance? The annoying thing is we probably won't get a "Debut" announcement for him given he's technically already played.

If I knew he were playing I'd almost pick him over Roberston this week.

 

[TedDougChris]

Yeah not the biggest of fans of swapping deck chairs around on the titanic so to speak.
Trading Kosi or Highmore as soon as they're dropped accomplishes nothing when the new rookies you're trading to aren't really world beaters. And we make no cash from it. I'm prepared to give them both 2,3 maybe even 4 weeks to get back unless an absolute world beater in defense shows up.

I think trades are too valuable to immediately cull a rookie who's still at a basement price. I almost always give them a couple to get back before burning them.

At the end of the day, with 2x trades it's probably less important to have a full set of 30 green lights week to week as it was with 3x trades. With only 2x trades you can only really average maybe 1x money making money per week. How many weeks can it take for rookies to fatten? Sometimes only 5 or 6 weeks. So rookies you grab now, might be the one you cash in a months time. The turnover is not massive.

I think 1, maybe 2 bench rookie donuts per week is going to be ok this year. We can't chase that as the main focus of our trades, or we'll just be paddling in circles.

In the interim Young -> Burgess is my move as it at least makes some coin. D6 could blow up in my face but even if he scores a 20 this week I can make adjustments next week and bite the bullet and upgrade one of Highmore/Kosi (Probably Highmore if he's out for a second consecutive week).

That's what I am looking at now.

do I go - Clark to Cumming - more output, more cash generation, less shit OR
do I go - Kosi to Parks - gives me bench cover, small cash generation

 

[Sixpence]

With the Witts injury and forgetting to replace Caldwell last week both my trades are taken up with replacing them.

Tex for Caldwell (really should have done this last week)
Hickey for Witts (might reverse this, it makes me want to throw up a little, but he has a good BE and there isn't any standout better choices for the price)

 

[JDWCE]

It’s a tricky one! I’m in a similar boat where I need to downgrade a rookie who probably still has more money to make to be able to go Young to Cumming.

Despite the match up I actually like Rowe down, rather than Powell. He will probably make more money and is an on field option.

My predicament is:

Rowe to Robertson
Or Berry to Robertson
Or Brockman to Waterman?

I've toyed with getting rid of Brockman as well and it doesn't get me enough coin. He puts up some putrid scores which sort of halts his price rises a lot more than the others. Although I don't mind his match up this week... but to be fair I feel like all the rookies you just mentioned have favourable match ups for a change

 

[Neale4brownlow]

That's what I am looking at now.

do I go - Clark to Cumming - more output, more cash generation, less sh*t OR
do I go - Kosi to Parks - gives me bench cover, small cash generation

Whats the situation with Parks? I know next to nothing about the guy? Never heard of him.

I've currently got Clark (M5), Young (D6), Kosi/Highmore (D7+D8).

Clarko may not even end up dropping Kosi. So I think I might just sit on him for a little bit. If he's dropped I might give him 2 weeks or so to get back unless an obvious choice pops up.

My rough plan until team sheets or injuries throw it out the window:
1) Young -> Burgess for cash. Burgess at D6 for a week (or Highmore if named, but I'd probably still go burgess tbh).
2) Clark -> Robertson (or possibly Downie if there's a post guaranteeing he'll play).

Next week if Burgess spuds, Kosi or Highmore become Williams or Scrimshaw.

Otherwise I'll keep playing him D6 till it fails and keep upgrading some mid pricers instead (DeGoey, Steph, Drew, Sholl, Fantasia etc).

 

[TedDougChris]

Whats the situation with Parks? I know next to nothing about the guy? Never heard of him.

I've currently got Clark (M5), Young (D6), Kosi/Highmore (D7+D8).

Clarko may not even end up dropping Kosi. So I think I might just sit on him for a little bit. If he's dropped I might give him 2 weeks or so to get back unless an obvious choice pops up.

My rough plan until team sheets or injuries throw it out the window:
1) Young -> Burgess for cash. Burgess at D6 for a week (or Highmore if named, but I'd probably still go burgess tbh).
2) Clark -> Robertson (or possibly Downie if there's a post guaranteeing he'll play).

Next week if Burgess spuds, Kosi or Highmore become Williams or Scrimshaw.

Otherwise I'll keep playing him D6 till it fails and keep upgrading some mid pricers instead (DeGoey, Steph, Drew, Sholl, Fantasia etc).

I knew nothing about him, but apparently a mature age player - runs hard, works hard - got 50-odd on the weekend. If he's named, it's something I am considering. Even though I ****ing hate having Clark in my side.....

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I knew nothing about him, but apparently a mature age player - runs hard, works hard - got 50-odd on the weekend. If he's named, it's something I am considering. Even though I ******* hate having Clark in my side.....

When they say "mature" i'm pretty sure he's only 19.

Was in the Swans Academy, not selected in his Under18 draft (i.e 2020) played SANFL seniors, selected by Carlton with a rookie selection this year. He's a jet though, only problem is he could lose his spot to Marchbank in 3-4 weeks, but until then, i think the Blues like the tenancity and defensive nature he brings.

 

[TedDougChris]

When they say "mature" i'm pretty sure he's only 19.

Was in the Swans Academy, not selected in his Under18 draft (i.e 2020) played SANFL seniors, selected by Carlton with a rookie selection this year.

I now know more than I did !!!

(I will happily admit he looked like a young kid from what I saw on the weekend !!)

 

[TedDougChris]

When they say "mature" i'm pretty sure he's only 19.

Was in the Swans Academy, not selected in his Under18 draft (i.e 2020) played SANFL seniors, selected by Carlton with a rookie selection this year. He's a jet though, only problem is he could lose his spot to Marchbank in 3-4 weeks, but until then, i think the Blues like the tenancity and defensive nature he brings.

Is he likely to stay in for a few weeks mate ??

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Surely Devon Robertson cannot be dropped after laying 7 tackles. News flash to the Lions, they're not actually that good and can't be turning their nose up at players like Roberston when they have absolute spuds in their team like T. Berry and Ah Chee in their side.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Surely Devon Robertson cannot be dropped after laying 7 tackles. News flash to the Lions, they're not actually that good and can't be turning their nose up at players like Roberston when they have absolute spuds in their team like T. Berry and Ah Chee in their side.

Agree. Doesn't send an overly good message to the squad when players are being gifted spots. But I guess players all play specific roles this say, you're not trying to find a spot inthe best 22, you're trying to find a spot in the 2-4 positions you play.
Robertson shares his spot with berry who's back. So either its a slight role change/timeshare on the role or dropped?

I think he's almost guaranteed to get a gig this round. My concern is they tweak his role to a point that he's much quieter.. then drop him next week haha.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Is he likely to stay in for a few weeks mate ??

I did a sneeky edit above.

He replaced Williamson in the side, with the Blues preferring a more tall/defensive setup with Parks playing an interpceting role as opposed to Williamson playing a dashing half back role. We looked really good in defence on the weekend with that and arguably it's a more balanced lineup, with four pure defensive positions (Jones, Weitering, Plowman and Parks) and three half backs (Docherty, Saad and SPS). I think they stay that way moving forward, with Plowman playing on small forwards and Parks taking the third tall types.

The only concern is Caleb Marchbank plays the exact same role as Parks, is more mature and arguably more talented. Marchbank is a test to play this week.. in the past we've rushed him straight back into the side without any VFL games. I don't think that will be the case here, as he's missed a lot of footy, but if he gets up for a reserves game this week. He could be sniffing around Parks' spot in the 22 within 3 weeks maybe.

Of course if Parks' begins to faulter we could always also revert to Williamson and playing a four half back structure.

 

[Corby_4]

Hmmm given it goes to shit for Dev, who looks the next best option?
Parks or Burgess are the only candidates I'm seeing.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Agree. Doesn't send an overly good message to the squad when players are being gifted spots. But I guess players all play specific roles this say, you're not trying to find a spot inthe best 22, you're trying to find a spot in the 2-4 positions you play.
Robertson shares his spot with berry who's back. So either its a slight role change/timeshare on the role or dropped?

I think he's almost guaranteed to get a gig this round. My concern is they tweak his role to a point that he's much quieter.. then drop him next week haha.

Agreed, i'm struggling to figure out if he's worth the risk or not.

 

[TedDougChris]

I did a sneeky edit above.

He replaced Williamson in the side, with the Blues preferring a more tall/defensive setup with Parks playing an interpceting role as opposed to Williamson playing a dashing half back role. We looked really good in defence on the weekend with that and arguably it's a more balanced lineup, with four pure defensive positions (Jones, Weitering, Plowman and Parks) and three half backs (Docherty, Saad and SPS). I think they stay that way moving forward, with Plowman playing on small forwards and Parks taking the third tall types.

The only concern is Caleb Marchbank plays the exact same role as Parks, is more mature and arguably more talented. Marchbank is a test to play this week.. in the past we've rushed him straight back into the side without any VFL games. I don't think that will be the case here, as he's missed a lot of footy, but if he gets up for a reserves game this week. He could be sniffing around Parks' spot in the 22 within 3 weeks maybe.

Of course if Parks' begins to faulter we could always also revert to Williamson and playing a four half back structure.

Cheers mate !!

 

[Balsam]

Hmmm given it goes to sh*t for Dev, who looks the next best option?
Parks or Burgess are the only candidates I'm seeing.

I'm looking at Chapman... with Young out for a while, it must help his JS.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Agreed, i'm struggling to figure out if he's worth the risk or not.

I guess we'll always have job security concerns over any rookie who wasn't in the team first up in the year. Those who come in later are obviously only there through injury or have temporarily pushed someone out based on form.

So we'll have to take the plunge regardless on whoevever we're picking.

If Robbo is named, he's got a 93 on the books so I think you basically have to pick him regardless of any concerns.

 

[JDWCE]

I guess we'll always have job security concerns over any rookie who wasn't in the team first up in the year. Those who come in later are obviously only there through injury or have temporarily pushed someone out based on form.

So we'll have to take the plunge regardless on whoevever we're picking.

If Robbo is named, he's got a 93 on the books so I think you basically have to pick him regardless of any concerns.

**** this 24 hour team announcement bullshit! For forward rookies it's either Rob or Waterman but we won't know if Rob is named prior to Waterman being locked out.... campaigners

 

[One Dimensional]

I've toyed with getting rid of Brockman as well and it doesn't get me enough coin. He puts up some putrid scores which sort of halts his price rises a lot more than the others. Although I don't mind his match up this week... but to be fair I feel like all the rookies you just mentioned have favourable match ups for a change

Agreed, getting rid of Brockman is my preferred option.
Although, I’d be price out of Robertson if I want to bring in Cumming and would then be forced to bring in Waterman.
Bringing in someone on a Thursday during a rolling lockout doesn’t sit comfortably with me.

 

[Hillsy13]

Lachie Jones to debut for port, wonder if that means Bergman won’t play

Edit: Hinkley said Bergman is in contention to be sub
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