Analysis 2021 trade thread
- Thread starter dlanod
- Start date
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I had a look yesterday at clubs that we could do a trade with to move our picks. There really was only a few - this is based on not using our '22 first rounder. The more I think about it would be better to use it next year, as we might get the most out of it.
Teams that would consider to trade picks with us
- ADEL (4,33,75,80), they might want to get more picks in between 33 and 75
> Trade 41 and 60 (558) for pick 33 (563)
Leaves ADEL with 4, 41, 60, 75 and us with 14, 18, 33, 54
We could even trade our pick 54 for their 2022 4th rounder
- COLL (27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79), they might want more points
> Trade 27 (703) for picks 41, 54 & 60 (778)
Leaves COLL with 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55, 58, 60, 78, 79 and us with 14, 18 & 27
If Daicos goes pick 2, they will require 2014 points (picks 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55 & part of 58.
- STK (9, 62, 66, 67), they might want a pick in between 9 and 62
> Trade 9 (1469) and possibly a 2022 4th rounder for 14 and 41 (1573)
Leaves STK with 14, 41, 62, 66 and us with 9, 18, 54, 60
We could then trade 54 & 60 (366) to Coll for 46 (311) or WB for 45 (345). Leaves us with 9, 18, 45/46.
- WB (23, 41, 43, 44, 45, 52)
> Trading for 23 (815) would require us to use a 2022 pick as our points for 41, 54 and 60 come up to 778 (37 pt shortfall).
Not sure they would entertain a trade pick if they will be getting less points.
Others
- CARL pick 25, more than likely to keep the pick than move down to 41
- SYD, pick 31 (606). Might be a chance if they would like to get another pick (41 & 54) before their pick 70.
- WCE, pick 29/35. Might be a chance with pick 35.
- Don't bother (HAW, MELB, ESS, FREM, RICH, PORT, GWS, NTH, GEEL, GC)
Teams that would consider to trade picks with us
- ADEL (4,33,75,80), they might want to get more picks in between 33 and 75
> Trade 41 and 60 (558) for pick 33 (563)
Leaves ADEL with 4, 41, 60, 75 and us with 14, 18, 33, 54
We could even trade our pick 54 for their 2022 4th rounder
- COLL (27, 36, 46, 48, 55, 58, 78, 79), they might want more points
> Trade 27 (703) for picks 41, 54 & 60 (778)
Leaves COLL with 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55, 58, 60, 78, 79 and us with 14, 18 & 27
If Daicos goes pick 2, they will require 2014 points (picks 36, 41, 46, 48, 54, 55 & part of 58.
- STK (9, 62, 66, 67), they might want a pick in between 9 and 62
> Trade 9 (1469) and possibly a 2022 4th rounder for 14 and 41 (1573)
Leaves STK with 14, 41, 62, 66 and us with 9, 18, 54, 60
We could then trade 54 & 60 (366) to Coll for 46 (311) or WB for 45 (345). Leaves us with 9, 18, 45/46.
- WB (23, 41, 43, 44, 45, 52)
> Trading for 23 (815) would require us to use a 2022 pick as our points for 41, 54 and 60 come up to 778 (37 pt shortfall).
Not sure they would entertain a trade pick if they will be getting less points.
Others
- CARL pick 25, more than likely to keep the pick than move down to 41
- SYD, pick 31 (606). Might be a chance if they would like to get another pick (41 & 54) before their pick 70.
- WCE, pick 29/35. Might be a chance with pick 35.
- Don't bother (HAW, MELB, ESS, FREM, RICH, PORT, GWS, NTH, GEEL, GC)
I don’t see any team possibly making any of those trades.
As I’ve mentioned before, Collingwood doesn’t have unlimited list spots available to take 5 or 6 picks to the draft. At this stage I believe they have 4 available list spots, so can only take 4 picks to the draft, so they need to be able to match any bid with 4 picks only. (This could change if they delist players and rookie draft them).
Why would Adelaide trade back just to get late picks? Adelaide don’t need points. And purely on where picks will end up after unwanted picks are taken away by the AFL, pick 60 is about as valuable as pick 75 is to Adelaide. There might only be 2 or 3 spots between them by the draft.
St Kilda don’t need extra picks. They have two nga kids rated as second round prospects, one who is bordering on being a late first round prospect. They’ll take 9 to the draft, and match bids on their two kids. Talk has been they want to trade their future first round pick to get a second first round pick in this year’s draft.
And again, the Bulldogs don’t have unlimited list spots to take a lot of late picks to the draft.
pulpdriver
Brownlow Medallist
St Kilda have an absolutely abysmal draft hand. They really need to downgrade that 9 to get anything before 62.
edit: oh right, they've got their NGA kids.
No they don’t. They’ll probably trade a future third round pick to a team who has excess third round picks in this year’s draft, and that will give them enough points to match their nga kids.
pulpdriver
Brownlow Medallist
legit edited that post like thirty seconds after posting. How did you reply to it before the edit?
mpal6
Norm Smith Medallist
Hawks were desperate for first rounders and willing to trade players for it. If we offer 14, we may be able to get 21 and 24 off them.
But other draft watchers have mentioned players available at 14 would be slightly higher rated than the mid 20s picks so I doubt we'll do that either. We might just draft 14 and 18, see whose available in 20s and if its someone we rate - might trade in our future first.
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Seems the only way to move up the draft or get another top 20 pick is to trade out our 2022 first. Don't see the club doing that so looks like 14 and 18 will be it. Still a pretty good draft hand in this draft
mattsmob
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Just on this, if they only take 4 picks to the draft can they live trade more in? Or will any excess picks they trade in just get removed?
Ok, yes they can live trade in picks. But they lose later picks.
So Collingwood take 4 picks to the draft. They match the bid on Daicos, so their highest pick moves up the order to where the bid was made, and their other 3 picks move to the end of the draft, giving them the last 3 picks in the draft (until the next team uses multiple picks to match a bid).
If Collingwood trade in a new pick at the beginning of the second round, they lose their last pick, so now only have two picks at the end of the draft (with maybe 2 or 3 bulldogs picks behind them now).
BRAB
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It's finally time to being Keefe and Thomas home.
I think the dogs would happily do a deal like that, but if 23 plus points is the best return you can get on your future first then you are probably better off holding it until next year.
So much water to go under the bridge in these scenarios - you guys could bomb, Ashcroft could bomb or get injured - it just seems to risky.
I'm sure Collingwood wish they held off future trading their first last year.
mattsmob
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Pick swap: pick 54 for Pt Adelaide's future 3rd via GWS.
A pick we weren't going to use for points next year seems like a fine deal for me, might indicate it's going to be tough trying to move our pick 41 up the board at this stage though.
A pick we weren't going to use for points next year seems like a fine deal for me, might indicate it's going to be tough trying to move our pick 41 up the board at this stage though.
mpal6
Norm Smith Medallist
And we are back in future 3rd round again which we had to trade for Fort earlier.
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I am happy to see this across the whole club. I said multiple times this year that I think we had an meh off season last year and it showed, our conditioning was average. I think it was mainly due to COVID and the short break but still - I hoped to see ‘extras’ again this year. A couple of years ago the guys were getting together in the park to play scratch matches and do training session on their own accord, if people recall?
I am massive on ‘extras’ in pro sports- I think it is what separates the best from the rest. It’s not enough of a thing in the AFL.
Forwards used to get hundreds of shots on goal in their own time, they can’t now because of sports science.
Kobe Bryant would hire a highschool gym or facility in most cities and get up shots on his day off when on the road. He also made sure he was always last in the gym. So if someone else stayed back, he would stay back with them. He is an extreme example of coarse.
I’m not saying they ‘should’ or it’s bad if they don’t, I know their is a huge focus on ‘down time’ and ‘golf’ these days but they only train like 2 hours a week - it’s hardly long enough to fully excel in your field.
I will likely get shot down for this haha but I do look at a guy like J Berry and think - imagine if he put half of the the 5 hours a week he puts into golf, into close hands work, 1 hour a week with a running coach and extra skills sessions.
Anyway, love seeing extras - it’ll be the difference.
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After having a season ruined by Osteitis Pubis I think Berry should be careful with the amount of extras he does
mattsmob
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After watching Robbo’s vlog the other week I don’t think he’s been putting too many hours into golf.
POBT
Brownlow Medallist
The "if it's not posted on social media, it didn't happen" mindset is far beyond my comprehension. I assume extras are being done. Why? Because we've been one of the best sides in the comp for 3 ****ing years!!!!
