Autopsy 2022 Grand Final

[zyzzbruh]

Watching the first few minutes again, it really is a case of men vs boys.

If you look at the way Geelong has developed over the years I wouldn't be surprised if our prime comes later rather than sooner.

I think the following players can eventually emulate what Geelong have -

Gulden - Selwood
Warner - Dangerfield
Rowbum - Guthrie
McInerney - Smith
McDonald - Hawkins

It's taken those Geelong players until the back end of their careers to produce yesterday. It may take our boys the same to become men.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

If you look at the way Geelong has developed over the years I wouldn't be surprised if our prime comes later rather than sooner.

I think the following players can eventually emulate what Geelong have -

Gulden - Selwood
Warner - Dangerfield
Rowbum - Guthrie
McInerney - Smith
McDonald - Hawkins

It's taken those Geelong players until the back end of their careers to produce yesterday. It may take our boys the same.

Their fitness and conditioning staff are to be commended literally the oldest list every year for the last part of a decade.

 

[Swansujelly]

It certainly looked like men vs boys at times

 

[ShireSwan]

Can't see us keeping Taylor, unless he's resigned about not playing AFL again, and we keep him as a rookie for VFL.

Drafting a KPD is crucial. Gould is next in line. I'd be taking what we can get for Melican tbh.

Is he signed on for one more year? In anycase it was more about a willingness to play any good fringe player and rest a star every now and again.
We need some depth that can contribute, not just rookies who will get 4 possessions a game. Taylor prob could have.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

It certainly looked like men vs boys at times

Ive thought about this for a while and i just dont understand the phase or meaning.

Its literally the same teams that played in round 2.

Did we just shrink back to Boys and they grew into Adults in the space of a few months?

If anything Melbourne midfield on paper should of posed a far more difficult task than Geelong midfield.

 

[Deccas]

to think we had prepared for that…..others around the stoppage as well, not on the ball….

You listen to Longmires and Calum's interview and it's clear we did prepare for it, and then fail to do what we prepared! I think we we really were overawed.

 

[ShireSwan]

Has any more video came out of post game?

 

[RedBloodBlackSwan]

I agree, the wing role is a better setup I think, his tank is still OK, the high hf role he didn’t really play preferring to stay mostly in the fwd line. He will be more often rotated on the wing as well I reckon. I can’t really imagine him playing FF or HF with the pressure he cops there now. What will be of most interest is how many games, and what the expectations are of him?

If he can’t earn his place in the team, then he can’t.

But is he fast or agile enough to play on a wing?

I’m worried there is no role for him, and I’d be concerned if we were trying to invent roles for a fading star.

 

[sherb]

Having lived here for nearly 40 years, the Swans are in my heart as much as the Blues are (who I started following as a boy in Tassie).

The result yesterday was shattering. The players just didn't turn up.

A few comments I've seen around the traps are worth a mention.

"They got blitzed early" (or words to that effect).
The Swans kicked their first goal at the 16 minute mark of the opening term, putting them 7 points down. That's hardly a blitzkrieg after half a term - even if only on the scoreboard. By then the players and coaches had time to settle the nerves, get used to the atmosphere/conditions, assess the opposition and game momentum, etc. But they couldn't and didn't do it, because the real damage was done in the second half of the opening term.

They were up against a bigger, stronger, team.
Well, yes, but they were in Round 2 as well and won that. Many things can change over the course of a season (eg form), but not the comparative body sizes of sides. So I'm not sure that works as an explanation for yesterday.

They were up a Geelong side at its best.
Well, yes again, but that's precisely what you need to do in a grand final - be at your very best. Geelong were - question is, why weren't the Swans? (If anything, they were at the opposite end of the scale - heading towards their worst).

I sincerely hope for the players' sake they get another shot at a GF win, because GFs don't come around that often (and for many players, never). If they learn anything from yesterday it's that you cannot afford to go into a GF anything less than being completely primed to perform at your very best.

Longmire has proven himself to be a great coach in terms of getting the best out of recycled players, consistent performance, avoiding bottoming out and making finals. But this is three Grand Final losses in a row now, two of which saw very poor performances, so at the very least questions need to be asked about how he prepares the side for Grand Finals. (Eg I've read about the players being "overwhelmed" - not sure that is helpful going into a GF).

 

[Borgan]

So half way through the last, managed to see the one s**t Geelong supporter in the whole stadium who drunkenly walked up to the back of Q52 yelling abuse at swans supporters and telling them to go home. I deserve a medal for not 'accidentally' bumping into him, sending him tumbling down about 50 steps.

Can confirm definitely not the only shit Geelong supporter at the game yesterday. I was in Q55 a predominately Geelong bay except for the top couple rows of swans fans, 1 absolute campaigner gave it to us all game from the start unprovoked, he kept going even when we were down 10 goals. Also copped a bit from a few younger Geelong fans when we left when the game finished. Pretty shit form from a few of them which I wouldn’t expect from that club

 

[ShireSwan]

Okay so being the absolute nuffy that I am, I looked back (rather torturously) at our centre bounces throughout the game, and broke them down into three categories: the pairings that did (and didn't) work for us, the culprits behind that 0-6 run of centre clearances in the 3rd, and the success rate of centre clearances based on a mids centre bounce attendances.

Our five most used centre bounce combinations in order of success rate at winning centre clearance:
1. Isaac Heeney, Luke Parker & James Rowbottom (four times with a strike rate of 75%)
2. Tom Papley, Luke Parker & James Rowbottom (four times with a strike rate of 50%)
3. Tom Papley, Luke Parker & Chad Warner (eight times with a strike rate of 37.5%*)
4. Errol Gulden, Luke Parker & Chad Warner (three times with a strike rate of 33.3%)
5. Callum Mills, Luke Parker & Chad Warner (four times with a strike rate of 25%)

*This figure is extremely flattered by two late centre clearances won in the last two minutes of the game.

Our mids by number of centre bounces attended in the run of six straight clearance losses in the 3rd term:
Luke Parker/Chad Warner - 5/6
Callum Mills - 3/6
Tom Papley - 2/6
Errol Gulden/Isaac Heeney/James Rowbottom - 1/6

(yes the game was most likely already out of reach by this point, but coming out after HT and losing the first six centre breaks all but killed any hope of a comeback.)

Our mids in order of success rate at centre bounces with a winning centre clearance:
1. Isaac Heeney (62.5%)
2. James Rowbottom (58.3%)
3. Tom Papley (46.7%)
4. Callum Mills (42.9%)
5. Chad Warner (40.9%)
6. Luke Parker (40.7%)
7. Errol Gulden (25%)

Based on all of the above, I think there's a few conclusions to draw (noting that it's not as clear cut as x did y and then we won or lost a clearance.)

The centre bounces functioned significantly better when Heeney and/or Rowbottom were involved, yet neither featured that heavily throughout the day (Rowbottom had the 5th-most CBAs with 12, way behind other mids like Parker (29) and Warner (22), whilst Heeney only had 8.) Instead, we heavily relied on the Papley-Parker-Warner trio (double the next most-featured combination) that bore very little results until Geelong were already partying on the boundary line.

I think we most likely tried to use that combination (Parker's contested work and evolving defensive game mixed with Papley and Warner's bursts) to try and generate the kind of fast, fancy centre breaks that could rival Geelong's, when what we probably needed was just more grunt in there and imperfect, territory-gaining centre clearances. I feel like we often actually lost possession of the ball and coughed it up by trying to get those fast, clean centre breaks.

Again, it's easy to say this looking at them as a whole when really each individual centre bounce is different and there are other factors involved like the rucks winning clearances off their own boot, the need to rest players on the interchange/in different positions etc. But I think maybe we went in with the wrong strategy for our centre clearances. Probably wouldn't have made much of a difference given how flat we were but maybe those dynamics are something we need to look at over the summer.

So Chad to forward line and Heeney to mids next year.

 

[SeanM]

It certainly looked like men vs boys at times

I hope we don't get carried away by this match and focus on bulking everyone up. We have been competitive this season. We can play to our own strengths rather than shape ourselves into the Geelong midfield.

I think there will be more to winning contested ball than being older and bigger.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Having lived here for nearly 40 years, the Swans are in my heart as much as the Blues are (who I started following as a boy in Tassie).

The result yesterday was shattering. The players just didn't turn up.

A few comments I've seen around the traps are worth a mention.

"They got blitzed early" (or words to that effect).
The Swans kicked their first goal at the 16 minute mark of the opening term, putting them 7 points down. That's hardly a blitzkrieg after half a term - even if only on the scoreboard. By then the players and coaches had time to settle the nerves, get used to the atmosphere/conditions, assess the opposition and game momentum, etc. But they couldn't and didn't do it, because the real damage was done in the second half of the opening term.

They were up against a bigger, stronger, team.
Well, yes, but they were in Round 2 as well and won that. Many things can change over the course of a season (eg form), but not the comparative body sizes of sides. So I'm not sure that works as an explanation for yesterday.

They were up a Geelong side at its best.
Well, yes again, but that's precisely what you need to do in a grand final - be at your very best. Geelong were - question is, why weren't the Swans? (If anything, they were at the opposite end of the scale - heading towards their worst).

I sincerely hope for the players' sake they get another shot at a GF win, because GFs don't come around that often (and for many players, never). If they learn anything from yesterday it's that you cannot afford to go into a GF anything less than being completely primed to perform at your very best.

Longmire has proven himself to be a great coach in terms of getting the best out of recycled players, consistent performance, avoiding bottoming out and making finals. But this is three Grand Final losses in a row now, two of which saw very poor performances, so at the very least questions need to be asked about how he prepares the side for Grand Finals. (Eg I've read about the players being "overwhelmed" - not sure that is helpful going into a GF).

Great post mate.

For some just admitting we didn't show up again is incredibily difficult so rationale and thought process about what could of happened takes place.

Where the simple unfortunate fact is we just didn't show up.

 

[DavyRed]

Having lived here for nearly 40 years, the Swans are in my heart as much as the Blues are (who I started following as a boy in Tassie).

The result yesterday was shattering. The players just didn't turn up.

A few comments I've seen around the traps are worth a mention.

"They got blitzed early" (or words to that effect).
The Swans kicked their first goal at the 16 minute mark of the opening term, putting them 7 points down. That's hardly a blitzkrieg after half a term - even if only on the scoreboard. By then the players and coaches had time to settle the nerves, get used to the atmosphere/conditions, assess the opposition and game momentum, etc. But they couldn't and didn't do it, because the real damage was done in the second half of the opening term.

They were up against a bigger, stronger, team.
Well, yes, but they were in Round 2 as well and won that. Many things can change over the course of a season (eg form), but not the comparative body sizes of sides. So I'm not sure that works as an explanation for yesterday.

They were up a Geelong side at its best.
Well, yes again, but that's precisely what you need to do in a grand final - be at your very best. Geelong were - question is, why weren't the Swans? (If anything, they were at the opposite end of the scale - heading towards their worst).

I sincerely hope for the players' sake they get another shot at a GF win, because GFs don't come around that often (and for many players, never). If they learn anything from yesterday it's that you cannot afford to go into a GF anything less than being completely primed to perform at your very best.

Longmire has proven himself to be a great coach in terms of getting the best out of recycled players, consistent performance, avoiding bottoming out and making finals. But this is three Grand Final losses in a row now, two of which saw very poor performances, so at the very least questions need to be asked about how he prepares the side for Grand Finals. (Eg I've read about the players being "overwhelmed" - not sure that is helpful going into a GF).

Thanks, mate. Being very familiar with your posting I can say you’ve always been very supportive of the Swans and have regularly fought in our corner on the Main Board. Appreciate the comments.

 

[sherb]

Can confirm definitely not the only s**t Geelong supporter at the game yesterday. I was in Q55 a predominately Geelong bay except for the top couple rows of swans fans, 1 absolute campaigner gave it to us all game from the start unprovoked, he kept going even when we were down 10 goals. Also copped a bit from a few younger Geelong fans when we left when the game finished. Pretty s**t form from a few of them which I wouldn’t expect from that club.

It's not actually that hard to be a classy winner. I've never been one for rubbing it into supporters of other clubs when they lose (except for some light hearted ribbing of close friends), it's poor form.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

So Chad to forward line and Heeney to mids next year.

caesar88 you deserve a masochist badge or title from the mods for going into detail regarding how we setup in the middle.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

It's not actually that hard to be a classy winner. I've never been one for rubbing it into supporters of other clubs when they lose (except for some light hearted ribbing of close friends), it's poor form.

Much less go to another board to rub it in like a few Pies supporters did.

Its a really tacky/classless act.

 

[Olian]

Ive thought about this for a while and i just dont understand the phase or meaning.

Its literally the same teams that played in round 2.

Did we just shrink back to Boys and they grew into Adults in the space of a few months?

If anything Melbourne midfield on paper should have posed a far more difficult task than Geelong midfield.

Older conditioned players don’t fade as the season wears along. The younger players don’t have the conditioning to handle all the bumps and bruises that occur in a season.

Happens every year that a young team jumps out of the gate in the first few rounds but as the season grinds along the younger team loses momentum.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

If only this were true...

 

[ShireSwan]

warner enhanced his reputation

Didn't you just post stats that show he got his arse handed to him at centre bounces?
He has great talent and athleticism, but obviously not there yet as a consistent midfielder but has great bursts which gains us lots of ground clearly.

 

[The King!]

Didn't you just post stats that show he got his arse handed to him at centre bounces?
He has great talent and athleticism, but obviously not there yet as a consistent midfielder but has great bursts which gains us lots of ground clearly.

I didn't, no

I thought he played well

least of the teams concerns

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

If only this were true...

LOL the edits!

 

[The King!]

If only this were true...

someone had an interesting day then

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

BT sounded as excited as usual for a Swans win that was the only legit thing.

 

[sherb]

Thanks, mate. Being very familiar with your posting I can say you’ve always been very supportive of the Swans and have regularly fought in our corner on the Main Board. Appreciate the comments.

Thanks mate in return.

30 year Swans member next season.