List Mgmt. 2022 Trade, Draft, etc thread

[Scythe94]

Dory_77 – might be worth pinning this? Gets updated after every move.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Going off the scale that is even enough, ~ 450 points, the equivalent of us overpaying by pick 44

Which is a junk pick, I would think I want to come out a second ahead of I’m doing a deal like this

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Which is a junk pick, I would think I want to come out a second ahead of I’m doing a deal like this

You probably would if you were Essendon, id do that deal if I was us also.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Pick 13 and Freo's 2023 first is probably more what they'd be asking for given that has a very good chance of being top 10 imo.

Id be on the fence with that, which probably means it is a fair trade.

 

[pjfairbairn]

I hope we are looking to trade even one, if not two, of our 2024 1st Round picks. We're in the window now, and regardless as to whether next year is a 'super draft' (the next one seemingly always is), I want to keep building now. We have exciting players in Laurie, JVR, Howes who haven't even played AFL footy yet. Let's keep loading up year on year, and allow them time to develop. 14 and 17 are apparently on the table from Sydney - imagine if we offered them one of next year's first round picks and say 37, and then we would have 13, 14 and 17. I'd rate that, either to use, or to try and trade into the top 10.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Pick 13 and Freo's 2023 first is probably more what they'd be asking for given that has a very good chance of being top 10 imo.

Id be on the fence with that, which probably means it is a fair trade.

I agree, I would do both our first and a second before giving up fremantles first. even if it falls at 10 it is a great pick next year.

 

[Topkent]

I hope we are looking to trade even one, if not two, of our 2024 1st Round picks. We're in the window now, and regardless as to whether next year is a 'super draft' (the next one seemingly always is), I want to keep building now. We have exciting players in Laurie, JVR, Howes who haven't even played AFL footy yet. Let's keep loading up year on year, and allow them time to develop. 14 and 17 are apparently on the table from Sydney - imagine if we offered them one of next year's first round picks and say 37, and then we would have 13, 14 and 17. I'd rate that, either to use, or to try and trade into the top 10.

Can't touch 2024 yet mate

 

[pjfairbairn]

Can't touch 2024 yet mate

Whoops. Meant 2023. Done that plenty this week at work, for some reason feels like we're already in 2023.

 

[schmuttt]

Anyway, back on topic. Are people hoping that we trade up or trade down (and strengthen our hand in next years draft) or keep our current picks? What are peoples preferences.

Depends what the recruiting team think. I’m happy to back their judgement. Very sitting on fence answer but they deserve benefit of the doubt.

One thing I will say though is if we trade into next years draft we could go really hard at Ben king.

 

[Down the throat]

Just for shits and giggles, using the NFL Draft pick value/trade chart for that proposed trade:

Melbourne Get: Pick 4 = 1800, Pick 22 = 780 Total: 2580

Essendon Get: Pick 13 = 1150, Pick 37 = 530, Future Firsts of Melb & Freo (Approximating going off this years results) = 2250 Total: 3930

Essendon win that trade by 1350 points , the equivalent of Melbourne overpaying by pick 9

Seems like a legit Dodoro Bigfooty account

Points are a garbage metric. Pick 4 is statistically more likely to be a very high quality (if not star) than three teens picks.

Quality over quantity every time.

But I agree - the Freo pick is the risk. I'd try for one of our seconds before giving it up.

I'd definitely give up all three for pick 2 (Sheezel) though.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Pick 4 is statistically more likely to be a very high quality (if not star) than three teens picks.

Are you sure about that?

Picks in the teens have turned up plenty of stars, and you get three swings to find one. (with a recruiter like Taylor there is every chance you could find 2)

 

[Topkent]

Points are a garbage metric. Pick 4 is statistically more likely to be a very high quality (if not star) than three teens picks.

Quality over quantity every time.

But I agree - the Freo pick is the risk. I'd try for one of our seconds before giving it up.

I'd definitely give up all three for pick 2 (Sheezel) though.

Completely ignoring the fact that if we do that deal and the the pick 4 is a bust we've completely ruined our future by training away 2 years worth of decent picks. Youd wanna be sure that you're taking a Petracca or Daicos before you completely crippled the clubs hand for 2 years

 

[Topkent]

Are you sure about that?

Of course not. Pick 10, 17 and 19 in the right recruiters hands are still great picks

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Of course not. Pick 10, 17 and 19 in the right recruiters hands are still great picks

Jimmy Toumpas was pick 4.

 

[Topkent]

Jimmy Toumpas was pick 4.

For a pick ~4 I'd do a 10 and 15 type trade. 3 is just insane to me that's your whole draft from 2 years invested into one bloke, it's a 22 man sport

 

[Down the throat]

Completely ignoring the fact that if we do that deal and the the pick 4 is a bust we've completely ruined our future by training away 2 years worth of decent picks. Youd wanna be sure that you're taking a Petracca or Daicos before you completely crippled the clubs hand for 2 years

There is risk in every decision TK - I would have thought with your likeness for the punt wouldn't need that explained. And you can never be sure of a Track or Daicos.

Would you do it for Oliver? He was a 4th pick.

No one is giving up a top 5 pick for two teens picks. You have to pay high to get them for a reason.

I'm not a recruiter nor a list manager - but if our guys thought the guy we could get with that top 5 pick had those elite attributes I'd be more than comfortable.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Would you do it for Oliver? He was a 4th pick.

Cripps was pick 13

 

[Topkent]

There is risk in every decision TK - I would have thought with your likeness for the punt wouldn't need that explained. And you can never be sure of a Track or Daicos.

Would you do it for Oliver? He was a 4th pick.

No one is giving up a top 5 pick for two teens picks. You have to pay high to get them for a reason.

I'm not a recruiter nor a list manager - but if our guys thought the guy we could get with that top 5 pick had those elite attributes I'd be more than comfortable.

We gave up pick 2 for 9 and a later pick.

There's maybe 5 players in the league at Oliver's level as a mid, would I give up Kozzy, Rivers and Bowey for him? Probably not. You need a team not just 3 good players doing it all.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Lets just use the last couple of drafts as an example of what we have done, JVR, Bowey, Laurie picked in the late teens/early twenties. Pretty confident that 2/3 of them will be guns.

Would you trade JVR, Bowey and Laurie for Logan McDonald? I wouldnt. And I like Logan a lot.

 

[danster168]

Depends what the recruiting team think. I’m happy to back their judgement. Very sitting on fence answer but they deserve benefit of the doubt.

One thing I will say though is if we trade into next years draft we could go really hard at Ben king.

I totally agree with this answer. I back the recruiting team because they've earned it. So the draft is really a win win in my opinion. If we take Jefferson, I'll be happy because we get a key forward to shut me up but if we don't it means Taylor didn't rate him which I'll back. If we trade up, then it's a win because Jason obviously rates the guys in the top 5 or 6 really high but if we trade down I think it's also a win because it means Taylor believes we're getting value.

So either way, I'm looking forward to it. I just wish they didn't split it over 2 days. It's a boring watch.

 

[danster168]

Points are a garbage metric. Pick 4 is statistically more likely to be a very high quality (if not star) than three teens picks.

Quality over quantity every time.

But I agree - the Freo pick is the risk. I'd try for one of our seconds before giving it up.

I'd definitely give up all three for pick 2 (Sheezel) though.

I probably would too.

10 years of data of pick 4's is: Max King, L.Davies-Uniacke, Ainsworth, Oliver, Jarrod Pickett, Bont, Toumpas, Hoskin-Elliott, Gaff, Morabito.

So that's 5 stars (King, Oliver, Bont, Gaff and LDU), 2 best 22 player (Ainsworth and Hoskin-Elliott), 2 spuds (Toumpas and Pickett) and 1 guy cut down with injury.

So 50% hit rate over the last 10 years with pick 4.

 

[Topkent]

The same guy who says we need 6 key forwards thinks we should trade all of our picks for a midfielder taken at 4. Ok

 

[markm106]

I can see why clubs wouldn’t accept this years and even Freo first 2023 for a top 5 pick. Seems the top 5 will get you a close to guaranteed gun. Harder to find guns with what those kicks could be. We’ll be Hoping Freo finish low but realistically they could make finals again. I do expect a slight regression though.

 

[danster168]

The same guy who says we need 6 key forwards thinks we should trade all of our picks for a midfielder taken at 4. Ok

we do need key forwards. 2 good ones we need. u disagree with this?

you can't pick what isn't there. Jefferson and phoenix foster would be ideal for me

 

[tomcruise]

Phillipou sounds like he's gonna be a gun. Probably end up at the bombers, which upsets me.

Would love him learning his craft off Trac.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Phillipou sounds like he's gonna be a gun. Probably end up at the bombers, which upsets me.

Would love him learning his craft off Trac.

Hes a winger more than a mid imo and reminds me of Issac Smith. I like him but he's not a certainty to be a gun i don't reckon. Got some tools but he isn't an amazing kick or anything. Can kick it long but also kicks a lot of mungs.

The type of player id be happy to get at 13, I sure wouldnt be trading 3 first round picks for him.