AFL 2023 - AFL Round 1

[balmainforever]

 

[anabac]

Taking the early $2.45 for the crows H2H vs Richmond next week at TAB.

can only find $2.20 elsewhere and reckon should start closer to even money. Cant have the tiges at $1.55 at Adelaide oval

 

[X_box_X]

Taking the early $2.45 for the crows H2H vs Richmond next week at TAB.

can only find $2.20 elsewhere and reckon should start closer to even money. Cant have the tiges at $1.55 at Adelaide oval

I'm not suggesting you've done the wrong thing, but from my experience some books are often a bit slower than others to update odds/lines for the following round. The point I'm making is others may have an opportunity to place the same bet as you while the Crows/GWS match is in progress. This gives them an opportunity to better assess if the round two odds are value.

I.e. If GWS end up winning by a healthy margin, you'll most likely get better odds than $2.45 for Adelaide next week. But if the Crows are leading by a healthy margin during the second half, there is a likelihood that some books will still have Adelaide at $2.45 for their round two match which you know is likely to shorten.

The other thing to consider by placing a round two bet before both teams have played their round one match is the chance of injuries/suspension. I.e. Your bet won't look too great if Laird gets injured during tomorrow's match.

 

[sohohoho]

world would be a better place if they didn't offer lookahead prices at all.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Cupl I like, missed the early juice with Flanders disposals but 6+ marks on tab is 8 bucks. He cleared this last week and looks to be getting plenty of it in new role having 30.

Another one I like Liam Jones

19

Liam Jones

Age

34

Ht

199cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.0

4star

MG

134.5

2star

D

7.6

2star

K

6.1

3star

HB

1.4

1star

M

4.1

4star

T

1.4

2star

MG

116.3

2star

D

9.4

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

10+ clunks at 9s. Pick off king can also be used as cheap switch. 11 last week and the talls for Dee's are fragile.

Our day.

 

[jikost]

Gulden 4+ tackles @ $2.15 tab - Sure, it's not the $101 of a couple of years ago, but think this gets up. Finished last year clearing 4+ in 7 of his last 8 matches (only 3 tackles in the grand final) and with more responsibility on-ball this year (18 CB's in the practice match) and hot, humid, slippery Gold Coast conditions that will lead to contest after contest, I could see him hitting 4 before half-time.

 

[TryAnHit]

Stephenson 2+ 3.50 3+ 9.75

Spent the tog majority inside F50.
Vs eagles and know he can go big

 

[burge13]

Witts isnt much of a ball getter but hes only up against Ladhams. 15+ at 2.30 a goer?

 

[GROTTO]

So I just had a wonderful breakfast in the city this morning and had Harris Andrews

31

Harris Andrews

Age

28

Ht

200cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.6

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

151.7

2star

D

17.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

3star

D

9.8

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.4

4star

T

1.6

4star

MG

94.0

2star

and a few defenders with him sitting at a table near me.

Is it inappropriate for me to have offered to pay for their brekky if they looked the other way when Fantasia has the ball inside 50m?

Asking for a friend.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Happy Cunningham Day boys

 

[kicksome]

does anyone else just see brisbane murdering port?
I think they have recruited well and are full steam ahead

 

[gordo2016]

Cupl I like, missed the early juice with Flanders disposals but 6+ marks on tab is 8 bucks. He cleared this last week and looks to be getting plenty of it in new role having 30.

Another one I like Liam Jones 10+ clunks at 9s. Pick off king can also be used as cheap switch. 11 last week and the talls for Dee's are fragile.

Our day.

Where do i find number of marks on Bet 365? Or is that on Sportsbet? I can't see it.

 

[X_box_X]

does anyone else just see brisbane murdering port?
I think they have recruited well and are full steam ahead

I think they'll win and I'm surprised they aren't trading less than $1.80 w BF.

 

[GROTTO]

I think they'll win and I'm surprised they aren't trading less than $1.80 w BF.

Lost to Eagles and Lost to Freo, they knew after their 0-5 start in 2022 they had to begin the summer and the season well.

Definitely agree, Im surprised.

 

[GROTTO]

Fun Facts with Grotto

Port have a 2-10 record against top 8 sides from 2022.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Lincoln McCarthy

11

Lincoln Mccarthy

Age

31

Ht

176cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.6

3star

K

6.8

3star

HB

4.9

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.2

5star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.1

2star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.7

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

3.3

4star

G

0.9

4star

D

9.2

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.6

2star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.0

1star

kicked 2 goals in the official practice match, also kicked 2.2 against Port last year.

0.5u each 2+ 3+ 4+ ($3.15, $8.75, $29, sb)

For some reason pb don't list him.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Alex Davies 0.5u each 2+ 3+ ($15, $67, pb)

Apparently playing as a mid/forward.

Warner 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($23, $81, pb)

I just want somebody to cheer for.

 

[Selim]

Would Charlie Combon be playing forward today?

 

[Ohh Ok]

May add more to this throughout the day. Follow the post if interested.

North Melbourne vs West Coast
2.5u - Ryan Most Goals (Vs Sheezel) - $1.80 - TAB
Liam Ryan

1

Liam Ryan

Age

28

Ht

181cm

Wt

76kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.3

3star

K

8.6

3star

HB

2.7

2star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.0

4star

G

1.3

5star

D

9.9

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

1.6

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

11.4

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

4star

G

1.6

5star

is the player with obvious runs on the board in this one. Has potential to light it up today as the 2nd/3rd best forward against an undermanned North backline. The draw point in going against Sheezel here is the potential likelihood that he may play down back. Started forward in their practice match and was then swung down back as the game progressed. Reportedly trained down throughout the week, and look like they may be defender short on team lists. Makes sense to use him down back for short term development of his game.

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane
2u - Brisbane - $2.10 - Betr (Posted Early)

3u - Bailey AGS - $1.72 - 365
17/24 in 2022 and 17/24 in 2021. 1.1, 1.1, 1.0 in his last 3 against Port. Expecting him to play a lot more forward this year with Ashcroft and Dunkley in the side. Great play based on the numbers.

3u - McCarthy AGS - $1.72 - 365
Another one that is based on strong numbers. 20/25 in 2022 and 19/24 in 2021. 2.2, 1.2, and 2.2 in his last 3 games against Port.

2.25u - Daniher 2+ goals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes/SB/TAB
0.75u - Daniher 3+ goals - $3.50 - SB/TAB
Kicked 2+ in 13/19, and 3+ in 9/19 last season giving both of these bets value. As a Lion he has kicked 4.3 and 2.0 against Port. Currently Port don't have an answer for Daniher as they don't have a player with the height and strength to go with him. With Hipwood, Cameron, and now Gunston in the forward line, it opens the door for Daniher to dominate in a game where the opposition doesn't have a clear answer for him.

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
4u - Bontempelli 25+ disposals - $1.73 - Betr (Posted Early)

2u - Bowey 20+ disposals - $2.45 - Ladbrokes
Situational spot for Bowey today with Hibberd, May, and Salem all missing from the side. Should get a few cheap disposals from kick ins and expecting him to match up well against the Dogs forward line (in terms of gaining disposals).

3u - Pickett Most Goals (Vs Bruce) - $1.50 - TAB
Bruce has trained down back all preseason so would be mental for the Dogs and Beveridge to give up this experiment before the season even begins. Essentially getting $1.50 for Kozi to kick a goal if the Dogs hold true to Bruce's preseason.

 

[burge13]

Alex Davies 0.5u each 2+ 3+ ($15, $67, pb)

Apparently playing as a mid/forward.

Warner 0.5u each 3+ 4+ ($23, $81, pb)

I just want somebody to cheer for.

I like your posts but id appreciate you not making players up! Its too early in the season for that

 

[burge13]

May add more to this throughout the day. Follow the post if interested.

North Melbourne vs West Coast
2.5u - Ryan Most Goals (Vs Sheezel) - $1.80 - TAB
Liam Ryan is the player with obvious runs on the board in this one. Has potential to light it up today as the 2nd/3rd best forward against an undermanned North backline. The draw point in going against Sheezel here is the potential likelihood that he may play down back. Started forward in their practice match and was then swung down back as the game progressed. Reportedly trained down throughout the week, and look like they may be defender short on team lists. Makes sense to use him down back for short term development of his game.

Port Adelaide vs Brisbane
2u - Brisbane - $2.10 - Betr (Posted Early)

3u - Bailey AGS - $1.72 - 365
17/24 in 2022 and 17/24 in 2021. 1.1, 1.1, 1.0 in his last 3 against Port. Expecting him to play a lot more forward this year with Ashcroft and Dunkley in the side. Great play based on the numbers.

3u - McCarthy AGS - $1.72 - 365
Another one that is based on strong numbers. 20/25 in 2022 and 19/24 in 2021. 2.2, 1.2, and 2.2 in his last 3 games against Port.

2.25u - Daniher 2+ goals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes/SB/TAB
0.75u - Daniher 3+ goals - $3.50 - SB/TAB
Kicked 2+ in 13/19, and 3+ in 9/19 last season giving both of these bets value. As a Lion he has kicked 4.3 and 2.0 against Port. Currently Port don't have an answer for Daniher as they don't have a player with the height and strength to go with him. With Hipwood, Cameron, and now Gunston in the forward line, it opens the door for Daniher to dominate in a game where the opposition doesn't have a clear answer for him.

Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
4u - Bontempelli 25+ disposals - $1.73 - Betr (Posted Early)

2u - Bowey 20+ disposals - $2.45 - Ladbrokes
Situational spot for Bowey today with Hibberd, May, and Salem all missing from the side. Should get a few cheap disposals from kick ins and expecting him to match up well against the Dogs forward line (in terms of gaining disposals).

3u - Pickett Most Goals (Vs Bruce) - $1.50 - TAB
Bruce has trained down back all preseason so would be mental for the Dogs and Beveridge to give up this experiment before the season even begins. Essentially getting $1.50 for Kozi to kick a goal if the Dogs hold true to Bruce's preseason.

Love the Pickett one. Surprised you havent gone harder at that tbh... sorry for jinxing

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Bailey Laurie apparently going to play forward.

0.5u each AGS 2+ ($3.30, $17, sb)

 

[Selim]

Let’s get it

Curtis 2,3 @2.85, 7.50

Combon 2,3 @3.25, 9

Long 2,3 @4.40, 14

Ryan 2-5 @1.90, 3.90, 9.50, 23

Sheezel 2-5 @2.65, 6.50, 19, 81

 

[Its not the coach]

Curtis 2+
Hipwood 2+
Rachelle 2+ @26.40 SB

Curtis 2+
Allen 2+
Stephenson ATG @6.50 SB

 

[GROTTO]

Let’s get it

Curtis 2,3 @2.85, 7.50

Combon 2,3 @3.25, 9

Long 2,3 @4.40, 14

Ryan 2-5 @1.90, 3.90, 9.50, 23

Sheezel 2-5 @2.65, 6.50, 19, 81

Accidentally purchased a packet of Cripps when I was meant to go Sheezels.

I got junk food mixed up. Im on both.

 

[kicksome]

Alex Davies 0.5u each 2+ 3+ ($15, $67, pb)

Tailed