Bont
Libba
Trac
Dawson
Daicos
De goey
Neale
Dunkley
Rozee
Butters
Viney
Cripps
Cerra
Sinclair
Day
Green
Anderson
Serong
Taranto
Merrett
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AFLW 2024 - Round 9 - Indigenous Round - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Analysis 2023 All Australian Team Awards Night
- Thread starter Cringle
- Start date
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Libba
Trac
Dawson
Daicos
De goey
Neale
Dunkley
Rozee
Butters
Viney
Cripps
Cerra
Sinclair
Day
Green
Anderson
Serong
Taranto
Merrett
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To be honest I could name at least another 10
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My AA
FB: Sicily - Weitering - Houston
HB: N.Daicos - Moore - Sinclair
C: J.Daicos - Dawson - Gulden
OB: English - Bontempelli - Butters
HF: Petrecca - Walker - Langford
FF: Greene - Curnow - C.Cameron
Interchange: Rozee, Bolton, Neale & Stewart
Adelaide: 2
Brisbane: 2
Carlton: 2
Collingwood: 3
Essendon: 1
Fremantle: 0
Geelong: 1
Gold Coast: 0
GWS: 1
Hawthorn: 1
Melbourne: 1
North Melbourne: 0
Port Adelaide: 3
Richmond: 1
St Kilda: 1
Sydney: 1
West Coast: 0
Western Bulldogs: 2
FB: Sicily - Weitering - Houston
HB: N.Daicos - Moore - Sinclair
C: J.Daicos - Dawson - Gulden
OB: English - Bontempelli - Butters
HF: Petrecca - Walker - Langford
FF: Greene - Curnow - C.Cameron
Interchange: Rozee, Bolton, Neale & Stewart
Adelaide: 2
Brisbane: 2
Carlton: 2
Collingwood: 3
Essendon: 1
Fremantle: 0
Geelong: 1
Gold Coast: 0
GWS: 1
Hawthorn: 1
Melbourne: 1
North Melbourne: 0
Port Adelaide: 3
Richmond: 1
St Kilda: 1
Sydney: 1
West Coast: 0
Western Bulldogs: 2
Yea that was just off the top of my head. I agree he's a good player and will be but the original post stands. In a year or two time I can see him being a top 20 mid for sure
Round 22 Update
I've added Kyle Langford as despite his medium forward status I could see him competing with key forwards for a forward pocket spot (some years they select 3, sometimes they don't.
Excluding games against the 3 easiest teams to score against (WCE, Hawthorn and NM - sorted by %. With each win I'm getting tempted to remove Hawthorn from this list. Their points against is edging closer to the sides above them rather than NM/WCE), the averages for the main tall forwards are:
1. Walker: 17 games, 48 goals (2.82 pg), 12 assists (0.71 pg) = 3.53 goal contributions per game
2. Hawkins: 14 games, 34 goals (2.43 pg), 14 assists (1.00 pg) = 3.43 goal contributions per game
3. Curnow: 16 games, 39 goals (2.44 pg), 11 assists (0.69 pg) = 3.13 goal contributions per game
4. Cameron: 17 games, 42 goals (2.47 pg), 11 assists (0.65 pg) = 3.12 goal contributions per game
4. Langford: 16 games, 33 goals (2.06 pg), 17 assists (1.06) = 3.12 goal contributions per game
6. Larkey: 16 games, 42 goals (2.63 pg), 4 assists (0.25 pg) = 2.88 goal contributions per game
7. Lewis: 13 games, 27 goals (2.08 pg), 9 assists (0.69 pg) = 2.77 goal contributions per game
8. Naughton: 18 games, 32 goals (1.77 pg), 17 assists (0.94 pg) = 2.71 goal contributions per game
9. Jack Lukosius: 18 games, 33 goals (1.83 pg), 12 assists (0.67 pg) = 2.50 goal contributions per game
9. Allen: 18 games, 40 goals (2.22 pg), 5 assists (0.28 pg) = 2.50 goal contributions per game
11. Miochek: 15 games, 33 goals (2.20 pg), 2 assists (0.06 pg) = 2.26 goal contributions per game
12. Hipwood: 18 games, 24 goals (1.33 pg), 16 assists (0.89 pg) = 2.22 goal contributions per game
13. Daniher: 17 games, 36 goals (1.78 pg), 7 assists (0.41 pg) = 2.19 goal contributions per game
14. Finlayson: 17 games, 22 goals (1.29 pg), 12 assists (0.71 pg) = 2.00 goal contributions per game
Walker has continued his climb and is now in top place. Cameron's overdue bag after a couple of months of wayward kicking has seen him climb too. Exclude his game against Melbourne with the early injury (12% game time) and he'd be in 3rd place. Curnow's bag against the Pies did his average good - he is also adding more assists as the season has gone on. Langford has cleaned up against the bottom sides but also has a good record against the rest. Hawkins will obviously miss out due to injury-missed games and that's fair enough. Daniher has fallen way down.
I've added Kyle Langford as despite his medium forward status I could see him competing with key forwards for a forward pocket spot (some years they select 3, sometimes they don't.
Excluding games against the 3 easiest teams to score against (WCE, Hawthorn and NM - sorted by %. With each win I'm getting tempted to remove Hawthorn from this list. Their points against is edging closer to the sides above them rather than NM/WCE), the averages for the main tall forwards are:
1. Walker: 17 games, 48 goals (2.82 pg), 12 assists (0.71 pg) = 3.53 goal contributions per game
2. Hawkins: 14 games, 34 goals (2.43 pg), 14 assists (1.00 pg) = 3.43 goal contributions per game
3. Curnow: 16 games, 39 goals (2.44 pg), 11 assists (0.69 pg) = 3.13 goal contributions per game
4. Cameron: 17 games, 42 goals (2.47 pg), 11 assists (0.65 pg) = 3.12 goal contributions per game
4. Langford: 16 games, 33 goals (2.06 pg), 17 assists (1.06) = 3.12 goal contributions per game
6. Larkey: 16 games, 42 goals (2.63 pg), 4 assists (0.25 pg) = 2.88 goal contributions per game
7. Lewis: 13 games, 27 goals (2.08 pg), 9 assists (0.69 pg) = 2.77 goal contributions per game
8. Naughton: 18 games, 32 goals (1.77 pg), 17 assists (0.94 pg) = 2.71 goal contributions per game
9. Jack Lukosius: 18 games, 33 goals (1.83 pg), 12 assists (0.67 pg) = 2.50 goal contributions per game
9. Allen: 18 games, 40 goals (2.22 pg), 5 assists (0.28 pg) = 2.50 goal contributions per game
11. Miochek: 15 games, 33 goals (2.20 pg), 2 assists (0.06 pg) = 2.26 goal contributions per game
12. Hipwood: 18 games, 24 goals (1.33 pg), 16 assists (0.89 pg) = 2.22 goal contributions per game
13. Daniher: 17 games, 36 goals (1.78 pg), 7 assists (0.41 pg) = 2.19 goal contributions per game
14. Finlayson: 17 games, 22 goals (1.29 pg), 12 assists (0.71 pg) = 2.00 goal contributions per game
Walker has continued his climb and is now in top place. Cameron's overdue bag after a couple of months of wayward kicking has seen him climb too. Exclude his game against Melbourne with the early injury (12% game time) and he'd be in 3rd place. Curnow's bag against the Pies did his average good - he is also adding more assists as the season has gone on. Langford has cleaned up against the bottom sides but also has a good record against the rest. Hawkins will obviously miss out due to injury-missed games and that's fair enough. Daniher has fallen way down.
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Goals and assists round 22:
1. Charlie Curnow 85 (70/15)
2. Taylor Walker 80 (65/15)
3. Toby Greene 73 (54/19)
4. Kyle Langford 67 (48/19)
5. Jeremy Cameron 66 (53/13)
6. Tom Hawkins 65 (47/18)
7. Charlie Cameron 63 (43/16)
8. Nick Larkey 61 (56/5)
9. Aaron Naughton 59 (40/19)
10. Joe Daniher 58 (46/12)
1. Charlie Curnow 85 (70/15)
2. Taylor Walker 80 (65/15)
3. Toby Greene 73 (54/19)
4. Kyle Langford 67 (48/19)
5. Jeremy Cameron 66 (53/13)
6. Tom Hawkins 65 (47/18)
7. Charlie Cameron 63 (43/16)
8. Nick Larkey 61 (56/5)
9. Aaron Naughton 59 (40/19)
10. Joe Daniher 58 (46/12)
Yet port are #1 overall for centre clearances… Rozee Butters JHF Drew Wines Boak Finlayson and lycett can all win their own Centre clearances so port rotate their setup a lot
Josh Daicos is and should be a certainty. Made the squad last year and was unlucky to miss , has gone to another level again this year and has been elite. Averages 26.2 touches a game, Gulden also averages 26.1. Both been outstanding. Both need to be in.
KissKiss
Norm Smith Medallist
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Would be very happy to see two proper wings selected. Its well overdue and both players have had great years
Would be very disappointing to not have Langford and C.Cameron in the team, given they will probably both finish in the top 7 on this table and aren't even key forwards.
If J.Cameron's kicking hadn't fallen off a cliff round 10 onwards he'd be pretty close to Walker's tally. I am curious as to whether a big final two rounds is enough to get him in as a third tall - but his patchy form for a couple of months probably wouldn't warrant it.
eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Top 3 should be locks. You probably have two spots for the rest, which I think will end up as Langford and Jeremy Cameron. Petracca the other flank
Some of those are clearly incorrect on 2023 form (which was the question and what this thread is about).
Take it from a Hawthorn supporter that Newcombe is clearly ahead of Day.
To pick another example, Newcombe averages more of the ball, more contested ball, more marks, more clearances, more centre clearances, more tackles and has a much higher efficiency that Jordan DeGoey. He also has more coaches votes by a margin and has played 4 more games, meaning whilst he is ahead on averages he is miles ahead in total output (obviously relevant for AA squad discussion).
It is clear from your list that you have underrated Newcombe's season.
- Feb 5, 2018
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Not sure a player like Jezza Cameron should be anywhere near the All Australian side considering how long his run of poor form was.
First 7 weeks he was a lock, then really failed to fire a shot until this past Friday night.
Although, Tom Papley made the squad last year despite not playing until round 7, so consistency over the entire season isn't necessarily a priority for the selectors.
First 7 weeks he was a lock, then really failed to fire a shot until this past Friday night.
Although, Tom Papley made the squad last year despite not playing until round 7, so consistency over the entire season isn't necessarily a priority for the selectors.
Agreed. Has been struggling with injury and beaten by some poor defenders. Should be nowhere near the team
- Mar 2, 2015
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Recency bias was an issue back in the 1990's. The team back in those days was chosen after one single meeting at the end of the year. Very few stats. Most people forgetting about what happened in April and May.
It's actually the opposite nowadays with "Rolling All Australian team" discussions and the selection committee meeting 2-3 times during the year. People lock in on certain players by the halfway mark. Those "locks" hang onto their spots in the AA team even as their form tails off slightly in the second half of the season.
Players' form over the final month of the home & away games has almost become irrelevant in AA discussions. People's minds are already made up based on what they've seen (and from stats) in the first 18 games.
Tom Lynch are Charlie Curnow are good examples from last year of this August "irrelevancy".
Carlton lost their last 4 games in 2022 and fell out of the top 8. In those 4 games, Curnow kicked 2.1, 2.0, 1.4, 2.5
He missed a soda late in the game vs Collingwood that would've given his team victory. He was one of the chief culprits why the Blues missed the finals.
Richmond won their last 4 games and climbed from 10th to 7th. In those 4 games Lynch kicked 4.1, 4.1, 8.0, 5.2
Lynch finished 2nd in the Coleman Medal race ahead of Hawkins and Cameron. He finished with (clearly) the highest goals per game average in the AFL.
However, the AA selectors had already decided it would be Cameron and Hawkins in the key positions with Curnow in the forward pocket. It didn't matter how many goals Lynch kicked in the final month. He was no chance. It had already been decided.
The last 4 weeks of the season are just important as the first 4 weeks, maybe even more vital. Less margin for error. Fewer remaining games to make up for poor performances.
IMO, players who start the year slowly shouldn't be out of calculations for the AA team. But this is pretty much what everyone does with the "rolling" discussion format.
Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore's recent injuries and subsequent missed games won't count against them. They'll both be selected. It's already been decided. Funny how Sicily missing 4 games in June because of suspension was seen by many people as a reason why he shouldn't be in.
Daicos was invisible vs the Hawks and Moore was a liability. Moore then got hurt early vs the Cats and was a non-entity... Both players will have made zero contribution in the final month of the season... Will that be held against them in AA discussions? Nope... Not an issue. Both in.
They are both deserving, but don't give me that about "recency bias". I'm betting they would've found it tougher to work their way into AA calculations if they had started the season with injuries and been non-entities in the first 4 rounds.
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I kind of agree this, although he picked up coaches votes in round 8 too. Surprisingly he's still managed 3 or more combined goals/assists in 6 of his last 8 completed games, but inaccurate kicking meant the bags dried up.
Bizarrely he's only 6 goals away from his 2022 H&A total though so if he kicked two more bags who knows.
Jezza hasn’t been shocking he just has lost his kicking boots, fremantle he had 1 goal 5 and 10 marks and other games 2 goals 3 behinds if you didn’t watch the matches it’s easy to look at the results and get that opinion because it’s only 1 or 2 goals. The first 1/3 of they year he was rated the best player in the competition with no questions. If he plays 1 more good game he is in I would say.
Noidnadroj
Norm Smith Medallist
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Let me start by saying I do NOT think Shai Bolton should be in the AA team (he should make squad)… but here are season stats from guys playing similar roles (Bolton a little more forward):
Bolton / Rozee :
Disposals: 21.9 / 25.8
Goals: 1.2 / 0.9
GA: 0.9 / 0.7
Contested: 10.0 / 8.6
DE%: 68% / 70.2%
Clangers : 3.7 / 3.8
Clearances: 4.3 / 3.8
SI’s : 6.8 / 6.8
Metres: 451 / 504
Turnovers: 4.5 / 5.7
Tackles : 3.0 / 5.0
AFL player ratings: 15.55 / 15.81
So despite less midfield time Bolton gets more clearances and more contested possessions. And 2.1 goals + goal assists to 1.6 and the same SI’s in a team that has scored nearly 300 points less.
So I don’t think Bolton should or will make it. But statistically at least his year has been every bit as good as Rozee’s, if not better, and Rozee is considered a lock.
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I certainly haven't watched that many Cats games this season, so I'll take you at your word on a few of those observations.
I'm just wondering if there have been more consistent players up forward who possibly deserve the spot a bit more.
Just to expand my point further - as you have suggested that these are "just the first 20" and you agreed there are at least another 10 more that have had a better season, I would suspect that Newcombe would rate 20th for most metrics against that list of names for season 2023.
Of that list of 20, he has the following rank for total output in 2023:
Equal 1st for disposal efficiency (with Sinclair; impressive give he is much more inside than half that list)
4th for centre clearances
6th for score involvements (impressive in a team that scores much less)
8th for goals
Equal 8th for goals + assists
9th for general clearances
9th for marks
10th for inside 50's
11th for contested possessions
11th for tackles
15th for disposals
and by tonight will be top 12 for coaches votes.
As it is time consuming, these are the 'only' stats I've checked. There were perhaps only 1 or 2 players that were relatively consistently ahead across most of those categories (e.g. Bontempelli). If the reality was that he was the 30th (or worse) best mid as you've suggested, Newcombe should only be top 15 for perhaps 1 of these categories and 20th (or very close to) for the rest. As I said, I think you have underrated his season somewhat.
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Jezza is quite selfless if he is having a great day he works up the field and I think him Curnow and Daniher offer more than guys like Walker Larkey Hawkins in terms of versatility and this shows in there inside 50s per game as well.
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- Super Tottenham....from the Lane.
