Analysis 2023 All Australian Team Awards Night

[Pomsta]

Agreed. Has been struggling with injury and beaten by some poor defenders. Should be nowhere near the team

He'll probably be in because his good games are so good and that is all the media and selectors can remember.

 

[jakson68]

Don't rate Houston or Rozee at all.

Have many ahead of Butters.

Do you try to look stupid?
Though I think at times Port supporters overrate their team, comments like this just strengthens your lack of credibility.

 

[mcgrath_truther]

realistically i think that newcombe will make the squad if he ends the season strongly, but since there's such a high amount of good midfielders, picking 4 + the 1 or 2 invariably placed on the forward flank/wing will make it hard to have in place of the bontempelli's, dawson's and rozzee's (for example). while i think that zac merrett has had a remarkable year i can't see him getting a spot in the side over any of those 3, maybe on the bench? but certainly nowhere else. (<--- this was meant for a comparison)

he's been impressive this year & it'd be good to see him get picked, it's just that there's been so many other well performing midfielders that the race for those spots is tough and very close

 

[Back One Out]

Just to expand my point further - as you have suggested that these are "just the first 20" and you agreed there are at least another 10 more that have had a better season, I would suspect that Newcombe would rate 20th for most metrics against that list of names for season 2023.

Of that list of 20, he has the following rank for total output in 2023:

Equal 1st for disposal efficiency (with Sinclair; impressive give he is much more inside than half that list)
4th for centre clearances
6th for score involvements (impressive in a team that scores much less)
8th for goals
Equal 8th for goals + assists
9th for general clearances
9th for marks
10th for inside 50's
11th for contested possessions
11th for tackles
15th for disposals
and by tonight will be top 12 for coaches votes.

As it is time consuming, these are the 'only' stats I've checked. There were perhaps only 1 or 2 players that were relatively consistently ahead across most of those categories (e.g. Bontempelli). If the reality was that he was the 30th (or worse) best mid as you've suggested, Newcombe should only be top 15 for perhaps 1 of these categories and 20th (or very close to) for the rest. As I said, I think you have underrated his season somewhat.

People will use stats, ratings and the coaches votes to confirm the greatness of gun midfielders like Bont, Petracca, Daicos, Butters, Rozee, etc
But when you use those same metrics to show that Newcombe is one of the top 15 midfielders, the cognitive dissonance sets in and they'll gloss over it.

In a nutshell, most of the top midfielders were 1st round draft picks for teams who are currently in the top 8... Rolls-Royces, they are... Whereas Newcombe was a mid-season draft pick-up for the struggling Hawks. So he can't be that great... Can he?

"Geez, he looks pretty good, though... Give him a year or two and he might work his way up to being a top 20 midfielder."

I remember having this exact same argument last year with people about Newcombe's place in the All Australian Under 22 team.
He was lucky to be the last player picked and get a spot on the bench!!! LMAO!!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Bont
Libba
Trac
Dawson
Daicos
De goey
Neale
Dunkley
Rozee
Butters
Viney
Cripps
Cerra
Sinclair
Day
Green
Anderson
Serong
Taranto
Merrett

How is he so high in the AFLCA in a side that’s only won 7 games if this is true?

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t he makes the AA side, and he might not even make the squad, but he’s had a belter of a season which the coaches have clearly identified.

 

[Warhorse]

People will use stats, ratings and the coaches votes to confirm the greatness of gun midfielders like Bont, Petracca, Daicos, Butters, Rozee, etc
But when you use those same metrics to show that Newcombe is one of the top 15 midfielders, the cognitive dissonance sets in and they'll gloss over it.

In a nutshell, most of the top midfielders were 1st round draft picks for teams who are currently in the top 8... Rolls-Royces, they are... Whereas Newcombe was a mid-season draft pick-up for the struggling Hawks. So he can't be that great... Can he?

"Geez, he looks pretty good, though... Give him a year or two and he might work his way up to being a top 20 midfielder."

I remember having this exact same argument last year with people about Newcombe's place in the All Australian Under 22 team.
He was lucky to be the last player picked and get a spot on the bench!!! LMAO!!

Top 15 mid means he is nowhere near AA

 

[Juddernaut08]

Recency bias was an issue back in the 1990's. The team back in those days was chosen after one single meeting at the end of the year. Very few stats. Most people forgetting about what happened in April and May.

It's actually the opposite nowadays with "Rolling All Australian team" discussions and the selection committee meeting 2-3 times during the year. People lock in on certain players by the halfway mark. Those "locks" hang onto their spots in the AA team even as their form tails off slightly in the second half of the season.

Players' form over the final month of the home & away games has almost become irrelevant in AA discussions. People's minds are already made up based on what they've seen (and from stats) in the first 18 games.



Tom Lynch are Charlie Curnow are good examples from last year of this August "irrelevancy".

Carlton lost their last 4 games in 2022 and fell out of the top 8. In those 4 games, Curnow kicked 2.1, 2.0, 1.4, 2.5
He missed a soda late in the game vs Collingwood that would've given his team victory. He was one of the chief culprits why the Blues missed the finals.

Richmond won their last 4 games and climbed from 10th to 7th. In those 4 games Lynch kicked 4.1, 4.1, 8.0, 5.2
Lynch finished 2nd in the Coleman Medal race ahead of Hawkins and Cameron. He finished with (clearly) the highest goals per game average in the AFL.

However, the AA selectors had already decided it would be Cameron and Hawkins in the key positions with Curnow in the forward pocket. It didn't matter how many goals Lynch kicked in the final month. He was no chance. It had already been decided.

The last 4 weeks of the season are just important as the first 4 weeks, maybe even more vital. Less margin for error. Fewer remaining games to make up for poor performances.

IMO, players who start the year slowly shouldn't be out of calculations for the AA team. But this is pretty much what everyone does with the "rolling" discussion format.




Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore's recent injuries and subsequent missed games won't count against them. They'll both be selected. It's already been decided. Funny how Sicily missing 4 games in June because of suspension was seen by many people as a reason why he shouldn't be in.

Daicos was invisible vs the Hawks and Moore was a liability. Moore then got hurt early vs the Cats and was a non-entity... Both players will have made zero contribution in the final month of the season... Will that be held against them in AA discussions? Nope... Not an issue. Both in.

They are both deserving, but don't give me that about "recency bias". I'm betting they would've found it tougher to work their way into AA calculations if they had started the season with injuries and been non-entities in the first 4 rounds.

great post.

I think last year was always going to be Curnow because he kicked the most goals.

But this year can definitely see how Cripps' and Weitering's slow starts will be counted against them.

 

[Blue and Silver]

great post.

I think last year was always going to be Curnow because he kicked the most goals.

But this year can definitely see how Cripps' and Weitering's slow starts will be counted against them.

Cripps is down on his best across the season. Reasonable that he misses the squad.

Weitering should make squad. His form during our streak has been outstanding.

Charlie is the best key forward in the league ATM, teams now structure their defences around stopping him

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Juddernaut08]

Cripps is down on his best across the season. Reasonable that he misses the squad.

Weitering should make squad. His form during our streak has been outstanding.

Charlie is the best key forward in the league ATM, teams now structure their defences around stopping him

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yes, although as much as I love Charlie, I'd say Cameron is the better overall player...just.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Top 15 mid means he is nowhere near AA

We were discussing the squad and there have been at least 15 mids in every squad since the squad was a thing.

He may still not make the squad (and I'm not really fussed if he does) but just addressing some of the posts here that underrate him further (by suggesting he is outside the top 30 and suggesting mids that have clearly been inferior as better this season).

 

[HairyO]

I certainly haven't watched that many Cats games this season, so I'll take you at your word on a few of those observations.
I'm just wondering if there have been more consistent players up forward who possibly deserve the spot a bit more.

Breust

 

[Juddernaut08]

We were discussing the squad and there have been at least 15 mids in every squad since the squad was a thing.

He may still not make the squad (and I'm not really fussed if he does) but just addressing some of the posts here that underrate him further (by suggesting he is outside the top 30 and suggesting mids that have clearly been inferior as better this season).

Usually those at the fringe of the squad are decided by ladder position.

Hawks will be very very good in 2024, but at the end of the day they're the 16th ranked side of 2023.

 

[Partridge]

So this bit I don't quite understand then; Stewart does not play CHB except in emergencies.

Yep I really hope not, he's not a key defender for starters.

Shows how little notice the commentators take; it was against Richmond when Riewoldt outmarked him and the commentators acted with disbelief - instead of it being completely reasonable that a half back flanker got outbodied by a bigger, stronger key forward.

 

[mattwa]

How is he so high in the AFLCA in a side that’s only won 7 games if this is true?

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t he makes the AA side, and he might not even make the squad, but he’s had a belter of a season which the coaches have clearly identified.

Mate read that list. It's a great list of players. It's not a knock on him at all and he's coming hard for it. I don't see an issue with him just being outside it. On the last few weeks form if he carries over into next year he will be moving through that. Like I said good player and outstanding yesterday

 

[mattwa]

Just to expand my point further - as you have suggested that these are "just the first 20" and you agreed there are at least another 10 more that have had a better season, I would suspect that Newcombe would rate 20th for most metrics against that list of names for season 2023.

Of that list of 20, he has the following rank for total output in 2023:

Equal 1st for disposal efficiency (with Sinclair; impressive give he is much more inside than half that list)
4th for centre clearances
6th for score involvements (impressive in a team that scores much less)
8th for goals
Equal 8th for goals + assists
9th for general clearances
9th for marks
10th for inside 50's
11th for contested possessions
11th for tackles
15th for disposals
and by tonight will be top 12 for coaches votes.

As it is time consuming, these are the 'only' stats I've checked. There were perhaps only 1 or 2 players that were relatively consistently ahead across most of those categories (e.g. Bontempelli). If the reality was that he was the 30th (or worse) best mid as you've suggested, Newcombe should only be top 15 for perhaps 1 of these categories and 20th (or very close to) for the rest. As I said, I think you have underrated his season somewhat.

I never said 10 others that was another poster. My comments was off the top of my head they were the names that came to mind. I don't see the issue we all have different opinions that's what makes footy and the AA selection in general a debate. No issue with newk as a player I just think the other 20 are better currently. In a year's time who knows but he's a player trending upwards so I see why you are all excited by him

 

[Partridge]

With all that said, I abosultely rate Stewart (and believe he is deserving of multiple AA's). I don't care that he was selected in 2022 but am disappointed that Sicily was not (again). I also think Stewart was very fortunate to be selected last year given he effectively missed 30% of the season. Typically for a player to be selected after missing that much football, they need to be clearly head and shoulders above everyone else in their position (only Franklin at his best, Ablett Jnr at his best and Stevie J in his crazy year have ever been selected after missing 5 games, when they were miles clear of their competitors when on the park). The standard for defenders last year was very high and Stewart was not clearly better than his competitors at all. IN fact, his average performacne was probably slightly less than others who played every game (including Sicily). I think selectors feel the pressure to select more players from dominant teams or else they are relentlessly criticised for having no idea, with "X team finished 3 games clear on top, how can they have less AA than X team - the selectors have no clue". This doesn't just apply to Stewart either. Tom Papley, for example, made the squad last year and I am certain he would not be picked if not for Sydney finishing top 4 and having a lack of candidates. Papley missed 6 games and finished 39th! in the COleman as an exclusive small forward. He averaged 15 touches and less than 2 tackles. A lot of small forwards missed out that kicked a lot more goals, more of the ball, etc.

Really good post overall.

On the part above that I selected, it just underlines that AA has become more and more a popularity contest with players the commentators and other footy media have amorous feelings for. Evidence doesn't really come into it. Form certainly doesn't. Every year now there are absolute howlers. As long as your profile is high, unless you've missed a huge chunk of the season you're still a good chance. Then it becomes circular which justifies it:

"<Player name> wasn't at his best, but still good enough to get his 5th / 6th / 7th / 8th nomination. Incredible."
"I don't think <player name> dropped form at all, because he was still good enough to win All-Australian nomination."

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Mate read that list. It's a great list of players. It's not a knock on him at all and he's coming hard for it. I don't see an issue with him just being outside it. On the last few weeks form if he carries over into next year he will be moving through that. Like I said good player and outstanding yesterday

But how has he not had a better year than half those players if the coaches have given him enough votes to prove as much?

 

[Back One Out]

Top 15 mid means he is nowhere near AA

How many in the AA squad? Last year it was 44.


Defenders
Taylor, May, Maynard, Stewart, Saad, Sicily, Weitering, B.Cox, Barrass, Wilkie

Midfield/HB
Sinclair, Brayshaw, Rioli

Midfielders
Oliver, Cripps, Neale, Brayshaw, Miller, Mills, Warner, Laird, Crisp, Macrae, Kelly, Walsh, McCluggage, J Daicos

Midfield/HF
Petracca, Rozee, Bolton, Bontempelli

Forwards
J.Cameron, Hawkins, Curnow, Lynch, Walker, Fritsch, C.Cameron, Stengle, Papley, Heeney

Ruckmen
Gawn, Witts... and Blicavs (2nd ruck/midfielder)



That's approximately 18 midfielders (including the mid-HFs, but not counting the mid-HBs or Blicavs)
If Jai Newcombe is rated as a top 15 mid by the AA selectors, then he will be in the squad.

I wouldn't say anyone in the AA squad is "nowhere near" AA

That's the whole point of the selectors naming their AA44 squad: to let people know who was near, but not quite AA.

 

[HarryBeef]

Recency bias was an issue back in the 1990's. The team back in those days was chosen after one single meeting at the end of the year. Very few stats. Most people forgetting about what happened in April and May.

It's actually the opposite nowadays with "Rolling All Australian team" discussions and the selection committee meeting 2-3 times during the year. People lock in on certain players by the halfway mark. Those "locks" hang onto their spots in the AA team even as their form tails off slightly in the second half of the season.

Players' form over the final month of the home & away games has almost become irrelevant in AA discussions. People's minds are already made up based on what they've seen (and from stats) in the first 18 games.



Tom Lynch are Charlie Curnow are good examples from last year of this August "irrelevancy".

Carlton lost their last 4 games in 2022 and fell out of the top 8. In those 4 games, Curnow kicked 2.1, 2.0, 1.4, 2.5
He missed a soda late in the game vs Collingwood that would've given his team victory. He was one of the chief culprits why the Blues missed the finals.

Richmond won their last 4 games and climbed from 10th to 7th. In those 4 games Lynch kicked 4.1, 4.1, 8.0, 5.2
Lynch finished 2nd in the Coleman Medal race ahead of Hawkins and Cameron. He finished with (clearly) the highest goals per game average in the AFL.

However, the AA selectors had already decided it would be Cameron and Hawkins in the key positions with Curnow in the forward pocket. It didn't matter how many goals Lynch kicked in the final month. He was no chance. It had already been decided.

The last 4 weeks of the season are just important as the first 4 weeks, maybe even more vital. Less margin for error. Fewer remaining games to make up for poor performances.

IMO, players who start the year slowly shouldn't be out of calculations for the AA team. But this is pretty much what everyone does with the "rolling" discussion format.




Nick Daicos and Darcy Moore's recent injuries and subsequent missed games won't count against them. They'll both be selected. It's already been decided. Funny how Sicily missing 4 games in June because of suspension was seen by many people as a reason why he shouldn't be in.

Daicos was invisible vs the Hawks and Moore was a liability. Moore then got hurt early vs the Cats and was a non-entity... Both players will have made zero contribution in the final month of the season... Will that be held against them in AA discussions? Nope... Not an issue. Both in.

They are both deserving, but don't give me that about "recency bias". I'm betting they would've found it tougher to work their way into AA calculations if they had started the season with injuries and been non-entities in the first 4 rounds.

Pretty sure Curnow got in because he won the Coleman...

 

[jakson68]

There is a fair bit of discussion on here regarding Newk from Hawthorn.

Whilst he is coming along well, I can't see him getting in the team and should struggle to get in the squad.
If he continues to track in the direction he is going, then next year he will be knocking on the door.

There would be maybe a dozen places to stretch midfielders in the team.
HB-2
C-3
HF-2
Foll-2
Int-3

Daicos Bros
Neale
Dunkley
Butters
Rozee
Trac
Viney
Cerra
Cripps
Sinclair
Gulden
Bont
Libba
Merrett
Greene
Dawson
Taranto
Serong
Anderson

That is 20 players that would be ahead of Newk this year.
As much as he is having a great season, history tells us he needs a collective (at least 2-3) good years for them to recognize him.

Is it right? Probably not but that is how it is.
Daicos was worthy of AA squad last year but lacked the body of work to cement his place.

Don't be discouraged Hawks fans, you have found one and a good one at that but stats can tell you whatever you want them to say, history will tell you different.

Unfortunately the best midfielder in the 16th ranked team, is rarely rated as high as the top couple of mids from the higher ranked teams.

 

[mcgrath_truther]

Cripps is down on his best across the season. Reasonable that he misses the squad.

Weitering should make squad. His form during our streak has been outstanding.

Charlie is the best key forward in the league ATM, teams now structure their defences around stopping him

On Pixel 7 using BigFooty.com mobile app

he's certainly a spectacle but i think against the pies the other weekend it highlighted just how many free kicks he ends up receiving that many other forwards don't, who're similarly sized. not to say he's bad but it's very apparent

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

People will use stats, ratings and the coaches votes to confirm the greatness of gun midfielders like Bont, Petracca, Daicos, Butters, Rozee, etc
But when you use those same metrics to show that Newcombe is one of the top 15 midfielders, the cognitive dissonance sets in and they'll gloss over it.

In a nutshell, most of the top midfielders were 1st round draft picks for teams who are currently in the top 8... Rolls-Royces, they are... Whereas Newcombe was a mid-season draft pick-up for the struggling Hawks. So he can't be that great... Can he?

"Geez, he looks pretty good, though... Give him a year or two and he might work his way up to being a top 20 midfielder."

I remember having this exact same argument last year with people about Newcombe's place in the All Australian Under 22 team.
He was lucky to be the last player picked and get a spot on the bench!!! LMAO!!

They all said the same thing when Sam Mitchell was plucked from nowhere 20 years ago. Too small, too fat, too slow, etc.

He ended his career as a legendary midfielder who still never got his due plaudits because he was small, fat and slow. Even in his AA years he was an afterthought, jagging a spot on the bench because the media darlings were in the actual team. He won a Brownlow and a Crimmins in 2012 yet was overlooked for an AA spot.

 

[mcgrath_truther]

They all said the same thing when Sam Mitchell was plucked from nowhere 20 years ago. Too small, too fat, too slow, etc.

He ended his career as a legendary midfielder who still never got his due plaudits because he was small, fat and slow. Even in his AA years he was an afterthought, jagging a spot on the bench because the media darlings were in the actual team. He won a Brownlow and a Crimmins in 2012 yet was overlooked for an AA spot.

i personally treat shit like this as exactly as that- an extension of the afl media's views and opinions and favourites, instead of a genuine look at what players played the roles best. it's why the team is full of midfielders playing outside of their position.

 

[The Cryptkeeper]

i personally treat s**t like this as exactly as that- an extension of the afl media's views and opinions and favourites, instead of a genuine look at what players played the roles best. it's why the team is full of midfielders playing outside of their position.

Zach Merrett will probably be overlooked this year based on the same premise. If you don't look flashy you have to do twice as much as the guy who does.

Merrett should be a walk up starter. His season has been immense.

 

[Sector 7G]

Some of those are clearly incorrect on 2023 form (which was the question and what this thread is about).

Take it from a Hawthorn supporter that Newcombe is clearly ahead of Day.

To pick another example, Newcombe averages more of the ball, more contested ball, more marks, more clearances, more centre clearances, more tackles and has a much higher efficiency that Jordan DeGoey. He also has more coaches votes by a margin and has played 4 more games, meaning whilst he is ahead on averages he is miles ahead in total output (obviously relevant for AA squad discussion).

It is clear from your list that you have underrated Newcombe's season.

Newcomb has had too many average games to be anywhere near the team. Plays 2 ripping game and people are putting his name up for selection. How were his 3 prior to that?