Analysis 2023 All Australian Team Awards Night

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Intoduction to a back pocket's (or even a back flanker who defends his defensive 50 often) heat map:

View attachment 1728638
Stacks of intercepting tall defenders fit this profile too.

Now a look at a couple of midfielders, along with super high half back/winger/midfielder Sinclair:

View attachment 1728640

Bont and Green having around double the amount of defensive 50 possessions as Sinclair, while the defensive/forward half ratios of the three are similar. If anything, I have a new back pocket candidate in Tom Green.

Hawkins 173rd in the comp for tackles inside 50.

Star forward pocket?

 

[Mr Meow]

Hawkins 173rd in the comp for tackles inside 50.

Star forward pocket?

This has to be one of the most pathetic concessions I've ever seen someone make.

We even had neutrals above stating that a third tall forward is perfectly reasonable (not so much on the Sinclair back pocket idea). I'd argue it's just as reasonable to only include 2 and for those to be Curnow and Walker. If there was another small forward knocking the door down (I already have C.Cameron, Greene and Rankine) then sure. It's still more logical to have a third tall forward than to shoe horn a mid onto the forward flank. I can't remember your team besides the hilarity of Sinclair in a back pocket but it seems like the type of move you'd go for.

 

[Mr Meow]

B: Sinclair Andrews Ballard
HB: Daicos Moore Houston
C: Daicos Petracca Gulden
HF: Greene Walker Petracca
FF: Cameron Curnow Hawkins
R: English Taranto Butters
I/C: Sicily Dawson Neale Bontempelli

Rozee, Merrett, Libba stiff

Mids mids mids

Two Petracca's! Can we squeeze a third one into a back pocket?

 

[rye]

sinclair has played enough backline to be picked on a half back flank

similar to daicos who will be picked as a half back despite playing significant minutes elsewhere

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

This has to be one of the most pathetic concessions I've ever seen someone make.

We even had neutrals above stating that a third tall forward is perfectly reasonable (not so much on the Sinclair back pocket idea). I'd argue it's just as reasonable to only include 2 and for those to be Curnow and Walker. If there was another small forward knocking the door down (I already have C.Cameron, Greene and Rankine) then sure. It's still more logical to have a third tall forward than to shoe horn a mid onto the forward flank. I can't remember your team besides the hilarity of Sinclair in a back pocket but it seems like the type of move you'd go for.

Why not pick a player who plays a traditional third tall forward role instead of shoving Hawkins into a forward pocket? Very contradictory.

Nothing hilarious about Sinclair in the back pocket, unless you're a salty Cats fan with a hard on for Stewart. No one else gets so cut at other people not picking their teams players.

 

[Mr Meow]

sinclair has played enough backline to be picked on a half back flank

similar to daicos who will be picked as a half back despite playing significant minutes elsewhere

Yeah this is fair enough, but different to Kreuuuuzerns position. Sinclair and Daicos are worthy back flankers because they still do a lot of work starting from slightly head of the D50 and pushing up to the wing (i.e transition between the arcs). Back pocket is just pushing it though. If you were going to do it, then why not push N.Daicos to a back pocket as well to make room for two new back flankers (Houston and...Rioli?).

The funny thing is I could still see them shoving Sinclair into a back pocket in the real team. Doesn't make it logical (same as including 10 mids).

 

[Mr Meow]

Why not pick a player who plays a traditional third tall forward role instead of shoving Hawkins into a forward pocket? Very contradictory.

Nothing hilarious about Sinclair in the back pocket, unless you're a salty Cats fan with a hard on for Stewart. No one else gets so cut at other people not picking their teams players.

I'm happy to do that. Who would you say are the leading third tall candidates?

Quite amusing that you said this about Stewart, who dropped out of my team after a couple of bad games. He responded with two good ones. He remains more of a back pocket than Sinclair but there are some alternatives. I don't find the idea of Stewart not being in the side ridiculous at all. I can post the other guys doing most of their work in D50 and you can decide which ones are more deserving. Statistically the best fit would be Ryan (Freo fans don't seem to agree though), or in your team picking a 4th tall defender.

You have to admit there is a small amount of humour in a back pocket selected who spends less time in the D50 than a midfielder like Tom Green.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Yeah this is fair enough, but different to Kreuuuuzerns position. Sinclair and Daicos are worthy back flankers because they still do a lot of work starting from slightly head of the D50 and pushing up to the wing (i.e transition between the arcs). Back pocket is just pushing it though. If you were going to do it, then why not push N.Daicos to a back pocket as well to make room for two new back flankers (Houston and...Rioli?).

The funny thing is I could still see them shoving Sinclair into a back pocket in the real team. Doesn't make it logical (same as including 10 mids).

But in past teams you have posted you have done this type of stuff plenty.

Houston and Wilkie in the back pocket
Dawson, Merrett, Butters on the wing
Petracca at half forward, and four mids on the bench in multiple iterations (despite hounding other posters for cramming in mids)

All examples of your work, yet you get so cut at others.

We all know how these teams are picked and we are all guilty of shoving in the best players and putting structure second. I don't want to see Hawkins, Curnow or Walker miss out because a player like Finlayson is having a decent year as a third tall/ruck and he is the best option in that specific role. I'm sure you don't either.

Will leave it there and let others have a go. Maybe you should too.

 

[Mr Meow]

But in past teams you have posted you have done this type of stuff plenty.

Houston and Wilkie in the back pocket
Dawson, Merrett, Butters on the wing
Petracca at half forward, and four mids on the bench in multiple iterations (despite hounding other posters for cramming in mids)

All examples of your work, yet you get so cut at others.

We all know how these teams are picked and we are all guilty of shoving in the best players and putting structure second. I don't want to see Hawkins, Curnow or Walker miss out because a player like Finlayson is having a decent year as a third tall/ruck and he is the best option in that specific role. I'm sure you don't either.

Will leave it there and let others have a go. Maybe you should too.

Houston I did once out of my 1000 teams, to force Stewart out minus a replacement. Since corrected as you'd have seen (Stewart back in, but that could only be bias of course). Wilkie has way more intercepts (1st in the league) and contested defensive 1v1s (8th in the league) while matched up against goal kicking talls. Seems a lot more back pocket than Sinclair.

Most of my teams have had two wingmen: J.Daicos + N.Martin, or J.Daicos + Gulden. An outside midfielder on a wing is still more appropriate than Sinclair in a back pocket.

As my teams have evolved Petracca was also moved to mids and mine is one of the only teams that has used 6 actual forwards. My average number of midfielders has been 6 or 7, has gone as low as 5. I have 6 at the moment and poke fun at myself when I dare include more.

And besides, I'm happy for my teams to be picked apart. People have done so. They offer their suggested replacements and why (sometimes). It's nothing to get really upset about. But sorry for having that affect on you from an off hand comment about Sinclair.

 

[longdonkey]

Kenny 4 coach though

Fortunately it's team who never plays because Kenny is a coach that never coaches.

 

[longdonkey]

Intoduction to a back pocket's (or even a back flanker who defends his defensive 50 often) heat map:

View attachment 1728638
Stacks of intercepting tall defenders fit this profile too.

Now a look at a couple of midfielders, along with super high half back/winger/midfielder Sinclair:

View attachment 1728640

Bont and Green having around double the amount of defensive 50 possessions as Sinclair, while the defensive/forward half ratios of the three are similar. If anything, I have a new back pocket candidate in Tom Green.

Looks like Stewart and Bont stand in one spot and wait for the ball to come to them.

 

[longdonkey]

Intoduction to a back pocket's (or even a back flanker who defends his defensive 50 often) heat map:

View attachment 1728638
Stacks of intercepting tall defenders fit this profile too.

Now a look at a couple of midfielders, along with super high half back/winger/midfielder Sinclair:

View attachment 1728640

Bont and Green having around double the amount of defensive 50 possessions as Sinclair, while the defensive/forward half ratios of the three are similar. If anything, I have a new back pocket candidate in Tom Green.

Nice chart usage by the way. Too bad you're not a Port supporter you'd be more than welcome on our board. We have a guy who comes up with the most inane rubbish stats and analysis you've ever seen. I've been a data analyst for years and occasionally take it seriously.

 

[longdonkey]

sinclair has played enough backline to be picked on a half back flank

similar to daicos who will be picked as a half back despite playing significant minutes elsewhere

No I think that is incorrect. I am not considering Sinclair or N Daicos as being defenders from this week and I named N Daicos in the centre this week.

 

[Lingsface]

Sinclair Andrews Houston
Stewart Moore Daicos
Serong Green Merrett
Petracca Curnow Rozee
Gulden Hawkins Greene

English Bontompelli Butters

J Cameron T Mitchell L Neale S Coniglio

Unlucky- Gulden Larkey Allen Ballard Marshall Liberatore Dawson Walker
Sicily Wilke Redman Walters Rankine Brayshaw Dunkley J Daicos

 

[Back One Out]

Intercepts (avg)
10 or more games

J. Sicily (Haw) 9.33
J. Lever (Melb) 8.93
C. Ballard (Gold) 8.87
C. Wilkie (St K) 8.80
D. Moore (Coll) 8.67
N. Balta (Rich) 8.40
N. Vlastuin (Rich) 8.15
A. Aliir (Port) 7.87
T. Stewart (Geel) 7.64
H. Andrews (Bris) 7.53
N. Blakey (Syd) 7.20
J. Buckley (GWS) 7.13
S. Collins (Gold) 7.13
N. Haynes (GWS) 7.08
B. Cox (Freo) 7.07
I. Quaynor (Coll) 7.07
J. Weitering (Carl) 7.00
T. Barrass (WCE) 7.00
T. Rivers (Melb) 6.87
L. Young (Carl) 6.77
S. Frost (Haw) 6.64
B. McKay (NM) 6.64
A. Saad (Carl) 6.57
N. Broad (Rich) 6.55
M. Redman (Ess) 6.53
L. Ryan (Freo) 6.53
C. Idun (GWS) 6.47
D. Macpherson (G.C) 6.47
A. Pearce (Freo) 6.47
R. Fox (Syd) 6.45
E. Richards (W.B) 6.42
D. Howard (St K) 6.40
N. Murphy (Coll) 6.36
B. Zerk-Thatcher (Ess) 6.36
J. Battle (St K) 6.33
N. Newman (Carl) 6.31
G. Logue (NM) 6.29
J. Ziebell (NM) 6.27
E. Ratugolea (Geel) 6.25
J. Bowey (Melb) 6.23
A. McGrath (Ess) 6.20
S. May (Melb) 6.15
J. Ridley (Ess) 6.07
M. Hinge (Adel) 6.00
T. Doedee (Adel) 6.00
L. Baker (Rich) 5.93
D. Grimes (Rich) 5.93
B. Dale (W.B) 5.87
B. Maynard (Coll) 5.87
J. Payne (Bris) 5.86
W. Powell (G.C) 5.85
L. Whitfield (GWS) 5.85
W. Milera (Adel) 5.79
D. Rioli (Rich) 5.73
L. Stocker (St K) 5.73
L. McDonald (NM) 5.67
D. Williams (Port) 5.67
L. Jones (W.B) 5.64
M. McGovern (Carl) 5.64
J. Clark (Freo) 5.60
D. Houston (Port) 5.60
A. Brayshaw (Melb) 5.40
H. Young (Freo) 5.40
J. Sinclair (St K) 5.33
B. Starcevich (Bris) 5.33
B. Hardwick (Haw) 5.27
J. McVee (Melb) 5.27
A. Keath (W.B) 5.27
J. Lloyd (Syd) 5.20
N. Wanganeen-Milera (St K) 5.20
B. Long (G.C) 5.15
M. Bergman (Port) 5.13
J. Kelly (Ess) 5.10
S. Mitchell (Haw) 5.10
S. De Koning (Geel) 5.09
J. Bews (Geel) 5.08
…..
H. Sheezel (NM) 4.60
…..
N. Daicos (Coll) 3.73


I’m not hanging shiit on Daicos. Just including his surprisingly low number because he is in everyone’s team at half back and “intercepts” is basically a defender-dominated stat (as shown by the list above)

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I prefer defenders actually defend.

Happy enough to have N Daicos cannot wear Sinclair.

Id have Blakey well ahead of Sinclair.

 

[manureid]

B: Sinclair Andrews Ballard
HB: Daicos Moore Houston
C: Daicos Petracca Gulden
HF: Greene Walker Petracca
FF: Cameron Curnow Hawkins
R: English Taranto Butters
I/C: Sicily Dawson Neale Bontempelli

Rozee, Merrett, Libba stiff

Mids mids mids

Certainly is after another good game....

Connor Rozee (23 disposals, three goals, nine tackles and eight score involvements)

 

[Back One Out]

Here are the 40 players who have been in the most Defensive 1 on 1 contests…

J. Buckley 81 (lost 19… 23.5%)
C. Ballard 64 (lost 15… 23.4%)
A. Aliir 60 (lost 17… 28.3%)
N. Balta 60 (lost 17… 28.3%)
H. Andrews 59 (lost 12… 20.3%)
A. Pearce 57 (lost 13… 22.8%)
J. Weitering 55 (lost 6… 10.9%)
C. Wilkie 54 (lost 16… 29.6%)
S. Collins 53 (lost 9… 17.0%)
S. May 51 (lost 9… 17.6%)
B. Zerk-Thatcher 51 (lost 19… 37.3%)
D. Howard 47 (lost 11… 23.4%)
N. Murray 47 (lost 7… 14.9%)
L. Jones 44 (lost 11… 25.0%)
T. Young 44 (lost 5… 11.4%)
T. Barrass 42 (lost 12… 28.6%)
J. Battle 42 (lost 12… 28.6%)
L. Young 41 (lost 12… 29.3%)
B. Cox 40 (lost 8… 20.0%)
D. Moore 40 (lost 7… 17.5%)
J. Butts 35 (lost 9… 25.7%)
J. Sicily 35 (lost 5… 14.3%)
N. Murphy 34 (lost 7… 20.6%)
E. Ratugolea 34 (lost 9… 26.5%)
J. Ridley 34 (lost 8… 23.5%)
T. McKenzie 33 (lost 12… 36.4%)
J. Payne 33 (lost 5… 15.2%)
C. Idun 31 (lost 3… 9.7%)
T. Doedee 30 (lost 8… 26.7%)
J. Lever 29 (lost 5… 17.2%)
D. Grimes 27 (lost 6… 22.2%)
A. Keath 27 (lost 9… 33.3%)
J. Blanck 26 (lost 7… 26.9%)
A. Corr 26 (lost 3… 11.5%)
S. Frost 25 (lost 8… 32.0%)
J. Ziebell 25 (lost 5… 20.0%)
T. McCartin 24 (lost 5… 20.8%)
L. Ryan 24 (lost 6… 25.0%)
B. Starcevich 24 (lost 6… 25.0%)
R. Fox 23 (lost 4… 17.4%)
B. McKay 23 (lost 8… 34.8%)

 

[Cringle]

Here are the 40 players who have been in the most Defensive 1 on 1 contests…

J. Buckley 81 (lost 19… 23.5%)
C. Ballard 64 (lost 15… 23.4%)
A. Aliir 60 (lost 17… 28.3%)
N. Balta 60 (lost 17… 28.3%)
H. Andrews 59 (lost 12… 20.3%)
A. Pearce 57 (lost 13… 22.8%)
J. Weitering 55 (lost 6… 10.9%)
C. Wilkie 54 (lost 16… 29.6%)
S. Collins 53 (lost 9… 17.0%)
S. May 51 (lost 9… 17.6%)
B. Zerk-Thatcher 51 (lost 19… 37.3%)
D. Howard 47 (lost 11… 23.4%)
N. Murray 47 (lost 7… 14.9%)
L. Jones 44 (lost 11… 25.0%)
T. Young 44 (lost 5… 11.4%)
T. Barrass 42 (lost 12… 28.6%)
J. Battle 42 (lost 12… 28.6%)
L. Young 41 (lost 12… 29.3%)
B. Cox 40 (lost 8… 20.0%)
D. Moore 40 (lost 7… 17.5%)
J. Butts 35 (lost 9… 25.7%)
J. Sicily 35 (lost 5… 14.3%)
N. Murphy 34 (lost 7… 20.6%)
E. Ratugolea 34 (lost 9… 26.5%)
J. Ridley 34 (lost 8… 23.5%)
T. McKenzie 33 (lost 12… 36.4%)
J. Payne 33 (lost 5… 15.2%)
C. Idun 31 (lost 3… 9.7%)
T. Doedee 30 (lost 8… 26.7%)
J. Lever 29 (lost 5… 17.2%)
D. Grimes 27 (lost 6… 22.2%)
A. Keath 27 (lost 9… 33.3%)
J. Blanck 26 (lost 7… 26.9%)
A. Corr 26 (lost 3… 11.5%)
S. Frost 25 (lost 8… 32.0%)
J. Ziebell 25 (lost 5… 20.0%)
T. McCartin 24 (lost 5… 20.8%)
L. Ryan 24 (lost 6… 25.0%)
B. Starcevich 24 (lost 6… 25.0%)
R. Fox 23 (lost 4… 17.4%)
B. McKay 23 (lost 8… 34.8%)

Jacob Weitering for FB AA it is.

 

[Back One Out]

Jacob Weitering for FB AA it is.

It’s just one aspect of being a defender

Weitering is very good at locking down on his opponent, but he doesn’t give his team as much rebound & drive out of defence like some of the other key defenders do.

AA selectors have generally been reluctant to pick the pure spoiling full backs in the past (e.g. Simon Prestigiacomo, Max Hudghton, Tom Lonergan, etc.)

I mainly posted those 1v1 stats because it’s interesting to compare the various AA contenders and see how they stack up alongside all the other AFL key backs

 

[Alvin Purple]

Round 16 2023 Western Bulldogs v Fremantle - FinalSiren.com

AFL football statistics on AFL teams, games and players.

finalsiren.com

Every team posted seems to have English as Ruck surely Darcy must get a look in.

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

Sinclair Andrews Houston
Stewart Moore Daicos
Serong Green Merrett
Petracca Curnow Rozee
Gulden Hawkins Greene

English Bontompelli Butters

J Cameron T Mitchell L Neale S Coniglio

Unlucky- Gulden Larkey Allen Ballard Marshall Liberatore Dawson Walker
Sicily Wilke Redman Walters Rankine Brayshaw Dunkley J Daicos

Coniglio? Mitchell? Over Dawson, Taranto and Daicos?

 

[Headless]

Coniglio? Mitchell? Over Dawson and Daicos?

Surely Dawson is about first picked.

 

[Mr Meow]

Here are the 40 players who have been in the most Defensive 1 on 1 contests…

J. Buckley 81 (lost 19… 23.5%)
C. Ballard 64 (lost 15… 23.4%)
A. Aliir 60 (lost 17… 28.3%)
N. Balta 60 (lost 17… 28.3%)
H. Andrews 59 (lost 12… 20.3%)
A. Pearce 57 (lost 13… 22.8%)
J. Weitering 55 (lost 6… 10.9%)
C. Wilkie 54 (lost 16… 29.6%)
S. Collins 53 (lost 9… 17.0%)
S. May 51 (lost 9… 17.6%)
B. Zerk-Thatcher 51 (lost 19… 37.3%)
D. Howard 47 (lost 11… 23.4%)
N. Murray 47 (lost 7… 14.9%)
L. Jones 44 (lost 11… 25.0%)
T. Young 44 (lost 5… 11.4%)
T. Barrass 42 (lost 12… 28.6%)
J. Battle 42 (lost 12… 28.6%)
L. Young 41 (lost 12… 29.3%)
B. Cox 40 (lost 8… 20.0%)
D. Moore 40 (lost 7… 17.5%)
J. Butts 35 (lost 9… 25.7%)
J. Sicily 35 (lost 5… 14.3%)
N. Murphy 34 (lost 7… 20.6%)
E. Ratugolea 34 (lost 9… 26.5%)
J. Ridley 34 (lost 8… 23.5%)
T. McKenzie 33 (lost 12… 36.4%)
J. Payne 33 (lost 5… 15.2%)
C. Idun 31 (lost 3… 9.7%)
T. Doedee 30 (lost 8… 26.7%)
J. Lever 29 (lost 5… 17.2%)
D. Grimes 27 (lost 6… 22.2%)
A. Keath 27 (lost 9… 33.3%)
J. Blanck 26 (lost 7… 26.9%)
A. Corr 26 (lost 3… 11.5%)
S. Frost 25 (lost 8… 32.0%)
J. Ziebell 25 (lost 5… 20.0%)
T. McCartin 24 (lost 5… 20.8%)
L. Ryan 24 (lost 6… 25.0%)
B. Starcevich 24 (lost 6… 25.0%)
R. Fox 23 (lost 4… 17.4%)
B. McKay 23 (lost 8… 34.8%)

Rebound 50s are another main one.

Stewart's averages for intercepts and rebound 50s are still hurt (about 0.5-0.6 per game for each) by his round 1 start of game injury.

Vlastuin and Blakey are having underrated seasons. And there's enough elite tall intercepting defenders that 3 probably deserve to get in.

I kind of like Sinclair as a bench option and therefore a genuine utility. Squeezes Houston onto the back flank.

 

[Mr Meow]

It’s just one aspect of being a defender

Weitering is very good at locking down on his opponent, but he doesn’t give his team as much rebound & drive out of defence like some of the other key defenders do.

AA selectors have generally been reluctant to pick the pure spoiling full backs in the past (e.g. Simon Prestigiacomo, Max Hudghton, Tom Lonergan, etc.)

I mainly posted those 1v1 stats because it’s interesting to compare the various AA contenders and see how they stack up alongside all the other AFL key backs

I think they're useful exercises. Sicily has done really well and been in my team again but we are back to the games missed argument. Stewart missing 5 games last year really pushed it. I guess that's right around the cut off mark.