AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

[balmainforever]

ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[pendlebury_10]

Top 3/5/10 markets available to multi at TAB, as well as BYO markets at SB (only peanuts to begin with).

 

[Johanpetro]

Rozee, Gulden, Taranto, Greene Top 10
Neale top 5

$7.16

Where do we have Greene? I've got him polling well

 

[sohohoho]

Top 3/5/10 markets available to multi at TAB, as well as BYO markets at SB (only peanuts to begin with).

1600%+ in the top 10 market, good luck

 

[NYRB]

1600%+ in the top 10 market, good luck

I just went back and calculated that for myself and got the same number you got. But what is an appropriate margin you feel for Margins for Place betting for a Top 10 market? (for the punter)

If we exclude Nick Daicos, there are 80 listed players where TAB are offering odds. The minimum odds is $1.01 and the maximum odds is $34. Should we in an 'ideal ' world see some runners being priced at least > $80 in a hypothetical field where there are eighty runners?

 

[NonPhixion]

SB have player vote lines, can multi them too.

 

[Johanpetro]

SB have player vote lines, can multi them too.

Daicos over 29.5
Neale over 26.5
Cripps over 16.5
Sinclair over 16.5
Dawson under 20.5
$21

PS: this thread is dead. I know bookies have offered absolute dog shtt markets, but the last few years the Brownlow Thread was pumping

 

[sohohoho]

I just went back and calculated that for myself and got the same number you got. But what is an appropriate margin you feel for Margins for Place betting for a Top 10 market? (for the punter)

If we exclude Nick Daicos, there are 80 listed players where TAB are offering odds. The minimum odds is $1.01 and the maximum odds is $34. Should we in an 'ideal ' world see some runners being priced at least > $80 in a hypothetical field where there are eighty runners?

Fair price on some of these players is four figures really.
Given 10 players can win it then 1000% is the starting point then margin can then be put into the market for books to get their cut.

What it a fair % I don't know but finding value here for 99% of players is impossible

 

[Suncraze]

Daicos over 29.5
Neale over 26.5
Cripps over 16.5
Sinclair over 16.5
Dawson under 20.5
$21

PS: this thread is dead. I know bookies have offered absolute dog shtt markets, but the last few years the Brownlow Thread was pumping

Everyone just waiting for TJM

 

[NYRB]

air price on some of these players is four figures really.
Given 10 players can win it then 1000% is the starting point then margin can then be put into the market for books to get their cut.

What it a fair % I don't know but finding value here for 99% of players is impossible

In an equal player world, given 10 places (assuming that only 80 players), $80/10= $8.00 , I thought would be a fair price for a Player X polling in the Top 10. A the time of writing there are 31 players priced less than $8.00 to finish in the Top 10 on TAB- thats not including N.Daicos as well, which shows the odds as a bit of a rip off as your suggesting.

 

[Spooka]

Everyone just waiting for TJM

Did similar!

Neale over
Butters under
Cripps over
Gulden under
Anderson under

$24.32

 

[Spooka]

Did similar!

Neale over
Butters under
Cripps over
Gulden under
Anderson under

$24.32

Sorry wrong reply haha

 

[NonPhixion]

B365 have released a top 20 market. Odds are actually pretty good too

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Where TJM?

 

[pendlebury_10]

Did similar!

Neale over
Butters under
Cripps over
Gulden under
Anderson under

$24.32

Yep I like similar
Neale over
Butters under
Cripps over
Gulden over
Serong over
$22

 

[Spooka]

Yep I like similar
Neale over
Butters under
Cripps over
Gulden over
Serong over
$22

I like! Only one is Gulden scares’s me a little bit!

 

[Johanpetro]

Anyone else think Butters line of 28.5 is very high?

 

[pendlebury_10]

Interesting that this year there's a couple of players high in the count who are ineligible and shouldn't be included in Top 5/10/20 markets, but books are allowing you to bet on them ie. Serong and Merrett

Surely makes the price of some players around them even juicier, if you're effectively moving two spots up the leaderboard.

 

[sohohoho]

Interesting that this year there's a couple of players high in the count who are ineligible and shouldn't be included in Top 5/10/20 markets, but books are allowing you to bet on them ie. Serong and Merrett

Surely makes the price of some players around them even juicier, if you're effectively moving two spots up the leaderboard.

they are included in this market though.

this is 365's rule regarding it


Other sites should say this but don't seem to this year but given the players are available to bet on who are ineligible to win the medal it is pretty self explanatory that their votes count.

Outside of the winner market a players eligibility has no impact on other markets

 

[burge13]

Anyone else think Butters line of 28.5 is very high?

Does seem high. 5 winners since 2010 have been under that figure (+ 1x 29) and he isn't expected to win

Recent years where the winner was > 28.5 there was (last year Cripps was 29 votes and obviously everyone else beneath it)

4 above 28.5 in 2021
Only Neale who won it in 2020
Only Fyfe in 2019 who won
2018 Titch won with 28
2017 had 2 players above 28.5 - Dusty who won on 36 and Danger on 33)
2016 only Danger was above who won on 35

Assuming Bont and Daicos are top 2 which would leave anyone else being an outlier to go > 28.5

 

[NonPhixion]

Does seem high. 5 winners since 2010 have been under that figure (+ 1x 29) and he isn't expected to win

Recent years where the winner was > 28.5 there was (last year Cripps was 29 votes and obviously everyone else beneath it)

4 above 28.5 in 2021
Only Neale who won it in 2020
Only Fyfe in 2019 who won
2018 Titch won with 28
2017 had 2 players above 28.5 - Dusty who won on 36 and Danger on 33)
2016 only Danger was above who won on 35

Assuming Bont and Daicos are top 2 which would leave anyone else being an outlier to go > 28.5

the only thing to note is being an extra game this season will bump the average vote line by about 1.5 at the top end

 

[pendlebury_10]

they are included in this market though.

this is 365's rule regarding it
View attachment 1795179

Other sites should say this but don't seem to this year but given the players are available to bet on who are ineligible to win the medal it is pretty self explanatory that their votes count.

Outside of the winner market a players eligibility has no impact on other markets

Thanks for clarifying. TAB Top 5 market states 'Suspended Players Ineligible' but doesn't show anything for Top 3 and Top 10.

 

[burge13]

the only thing to note is being an extra game this season will bump the average vote line by about 1.5 at the top end

Completely forgot the extra game!

 

[sohohoho]

Thanks for clarifying. TAB Top 5 market states 'Suspended Players Ineligible' but doesn't show anything for Top 3 and Top 10.

Where abouts does it say this?

 

[Substance]

Daicos over 29.5
Neale over 26.5
Cripps over 16.5
Sinclair over 16.5
Dawson under 20.5
$21

PS: this thread is dead. I know bookies have offered absolute dog shtt markets, but the last few years the Brownlow Thread was pumping

That's because the brownlow was a license the print money. DAE remember 2012? The team leader multis were broken. The value has been taken right out of it.

 

[sohohoho]

That's because the brownlow was a license the print money. DAE remember 2012? The team leader multis were broken. The value has been taken right out of it.

after 2010 it was when it started to go to shit when TAB lost millions, everything changed from then.

Markets been ruined since everyone decided sharing public counts was a good thing.