AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

[balmainforever]

ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Nick Daicos 13+ votes in first 5 rounds @ 5.50 worth a shout

 

[Suncraze]

Anyone know why the 3 vote markets at Sportsbetb were taken down?

 

[based]

razor ray logged in to his account

 

[pendlebury_10]

Coniglio, Greene and Green to combine for 50+ votes at $3.

I’ve got this clearing, as does Betfair, ESPN and AFL.com

Anyone else?

May have overpolled slightly, but my count has them landing on 55. Toby and Coniglio are traditonally great pollers. Tom Green is a bit of an unknown, but I feel like he is right in the Cripps mould and will attract votes for years to come.

The positive is that if one player underpolls in a game, the votes will likely go to the other two.

 

[sohohoho]

Coniglio, Greene and Green to combine for 50+ votes at $3.

I’ve got this clearing, as does Betfair, ESPN and AFL.com

Anyone else?

just under 50, way under Cogs compared to others it seems

 

[Johanpetro]

just under 50, way under Cogs compared to others it seems

I’ve got Cogs way under most people as well. On the flip side I’ve got Toby polling more than most hmm

 

[invisible_]

Serious lack of activity in the thread this year, probably not helped by lack of markets mid year but heaps of value to be found now. Too close to call for the winner according to my model, but now novelty markets out hope everyone has found some good bets

 

[Sausage Legs]

Serious lack of activity in the thread this year, probably not helped by lack of markets mid year but heaps of value to be found now. Too close to call for the winner according to my model, but now novelty markets out hope everyone has found some good bets

Not wrong, I was Gunna post me deepest darkest secrets in here knowing it'd be safe cos no one would read em

 

[Gazza Guru]

Serious lack of activity in the thread this year, probably not helped by lack of markets mid year but heaps of value to be found now. Too close to call for the winner according to my model, but now novelty markets out hope everyone has found some good bets

I was waiting for you to come back on here. I’ve done a count and reckon Bont wins the medal. Can’t wait for some of your tips on some of the other markets

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Serious lack of activity in the thread this year, probably not helped by lack of markets mid year but heaps of value to be found now. Too close to call for the winner according to my model, but now novelty markets out hope everyone has found some good bets

the king is back

 

[Reddd]

Dabble has 3 vote games out and you can multi them

Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

Rd16, Dan Houston

5

Dan Houston

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.2

5star

K

11.8

4star

HB

6.4

4star

M

4.9

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

289.2

4star

D

17.6

4star

K

11.6

4star

HB

6.0

3star

M

3.3

3star

T

3.4

4star

MG

319.9

5star

D

16.6

4star

K

12.4

5star

HB

4.2

4star

M

7.0

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

279.8

5star

Rd16, Daniel Rioli

17

Daniel Rioli

Age

27

Ht

179cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.2

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

2.7

3star

T

3.2

5star

MG

179.2

3star

D

8.1

2star

K

4.9

2star

HB

3.3

2star

M

2.0

2star

T

2.6

4star

MG

144.9

3star

D

9.0

3star

K

3.8

2star

HB

5.2

4star

M

0.8

1star

T

3.8

5star

MG

160.2

3star

Rd18 @4.11

 

[NYRB]

Are we buying into Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal tally?

 

[sohohoho]

Are we buying into Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal tally?

Their algo uses players polling history very heavily in its votes, is pretty damn average compared to other models out there

 

[invisible_]

Are we buying into Champion Data’s Brownlow Medal tally?

Historically CD haven't done that well - and looks like they've completely forgot Butters here.

Have attached the predictions from my model about the SB h2hs, will get some more markets in here over the weekend if anyone is interested. More info about method behind model / how it has gone in earlier seasons will be in my post history.

 

[sohohoho]

they have Butters on 14 I think

 

[invisible_]

Here's my final count - all the numbers on the right are % chance of win/top3/top5 etc occuring.
Because i simulate the season a bunch of times using probabilites of polling each game, its becomes easy to identify value in each market as you can just see how many simulations have each thing winning.
Not much value in the topX markets this year unfortunately

 

[Nacho4EVA]

You guys reckon SportsBet will sort it out and put the 3 votes markets back or is it worth signing up for Dabble or 365.

 

[Johanpetro]

Few trio markets on TAB atm

De Goey/Libba/Newcombe

De Goey at $2.30 looks nice to me

 

[Gazza Guru]

Serious lack of activity in the thread this year, probably not helped by lack of markets mid year but heaps of value to be found now. Too close to call for the winner according to my model, but now novelty markets out hope everyone has found some good bets

Hey mate, didn’t your model have some good simulations on the TAB team handicaps last year ? I hope you are happy to share some as I see they are up and I love the prices. Thanks

 

[invisible_]

Hey mate, didn’t your model have some good simulations on the TAB team handicaps last year ? I hope you are happy to share some as I see they are up and I love the prices. Thanks

Far out it looks like TAB just got some of these team handicaps completely wrong - some great options available according to the model simulations. I'll attach the model output here for each team, which basically shows on average how many votes I expect they'll end up on after the handicap is applied, percentage of simulations where they win, and then the implied fair odds that they should be priced at - anything over this price is a bet. Unfortunately the prices have moved a bit but since you can multi I've still found a few bets.

If you're willing to do the work and sift through the screenshots you'll find some others - but Gawn/English are as close at sure things over $2 i've seen, and Redman / Pendlebury / Finlayson / Wood are still decent value despite moving in.

 

[SuperDroppedBaggers]

Far out it looks like TAB just got some of these team handicaps completely wrong - some great options available according to the model simulations. I'll attach the model output here for each team, which basically shows on average how many votes I expect they'll end up on after the handicap is applied, percentage of simulations where they win, and then the implied fair odds that they should be priced at - anything over this price is a bet. Unfortunately the prices have moved a bit but since you can multi I've still found a few bets.

If you're willing to do the work and sift through the screenshots you'll find some others - but Gawn/English are as close at sure things over $2 i've seen, and Redman / Pendlebury / Finlayson / Wood are still decent value despite moving in.

Where are these markets? I can't find them

 

[Sausage Legs]

Where are these markets? I can't find them

Afl- Brownlow team votes- you'll see there's multiple markets now

 

[Geeves Train]

Far out it looks like TAB just got some of these team handicaps completely wrong - some great options available according to the model simulations. I'll attach the model output here for each team, which basically shows on average how many votes I expect they'll end up on after the handicap is applied, percentage of simulations where they win, and then the implied fair odds that they should be priced at - anything over this price is a bet. Unfortunately the prices have moved a bit but since you can multi I've still found a few bets.

If you're willing to do the work and sift through the screenshots you'll find some others - but Gawn/English are as close at sure things over $2 i've seen, and Redman / Pendlebury / Finlayson / Wood are still decent value despite moving in.

The handicaps are always great value, didn’t think we would get them this year.

I’ve played: Walsh, Wood, Heeney, Tim Kelly, Greene, Finlayson, Pendlebury and Martin. Really liked Gawn but price a bit low now.

 

[NonPhixion]

LDU, Dusty & Wood
$54
That seems insane to me

 

[Geeves Train]

LDU, Dusty & Wood
$54
That seems insane to me

I’ve hammered LDU ($2) in the trio vs Parker and Dangerfield. Have him 3 votes clear on 12.5 so I rekon double your money is great shopping!!