Live Event 2023 Brownlow medal live chat

[hutchy31]

At the game I had Cripps and Kelly as best on, with Allen not far off. Bont our best but when the game needed to be won it was the WC guys that stepped up (no shade on Bont, he did everything he could but nobody really went with him).

I'd personally be pretty surprised if he got more than 1 vote.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Reckon Treloar gets the 3 tonight. How many for Bont?

 

[Snarls Barkley]

Reckon Treloar gets the 3 tonight. How many for Bont?

I would have thought 3 personally

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Two for Bont.

 

[dogwatch]

I've been a supporter of Adz but I didn't have Treloar in my best three tonight.

While his stats look OK I put a fair bit of weight on those who do the heavy lifting like CPs and Tackles. He's not bad in that regard as he plays a bit of the inside role as well as the receiver role. However he's not up there with the likes of Bont and Liberatore.

What clinches it for me (and what I love watching) is how Bont wins about 90% of what you might call the "running contested ball" (when no-one has clean possession and he keeps paddling it out of the stoppage). He almost always gets a quality disposal away once he takes possession in those situations. Neither Libba nor Treloar are on that level.

Big chance of 3 votes tonight IMO.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

3. The Bont.

2. I. Smith

1. Libba

The Bont was instrumental in getting us back in it and voting is weighted in favour of the winner.

 

[The Inbetweener]

He was huge in that third quarter. He’s still favs with all the bookies

 

[doggies ftw]

Yep gotta be 3 for Bont, it wasn’t a typical Bont 3 where he’s out and out the best player on the ground, much more even spread, but I can’t think of anyone better - definitely not Treloar, he was good though

 

[Golden_6]

I’m reasonably optimistic after the last two weeks. These last couple of games count as much as anything and despite not putting in dominant performances, Bont should end up with anything from 3-6 crucial votes.

 

[bobs head soup]

FWIW ESPN do a Brownlow tracker where they allocate points each game.

They do a slightly different system whereby they'll give 0.5 votes when they can't split players in a game (eg, if they think 2 players are clear standouts and equally likely to get the 3, they will give each player 2.5 votes).

Coming into the final round, their leaderboard was;

30.5 - Bont
30 - Daicos
28.5 - Butters, Petracca

So if Bont gets any more than 1 vote (near certain) they'll have him as the winner.

 

[The Inbetweener]

FWIW ESPN do a Brownlow tracker where they allocate points each game.

They do a slightly different system whereby they'll give 0.5 votes when they can't split players in a game (eg, if they think 2 players are clear standouts and equally likely to get the 3, they will give each player 2.5 votes).

Coming into the final round, their leaderboard was;

30.5 - Bont
30 - Daicos
28.5 - Butters, Petracca

So if Bont gets any more than 1 vote (near certain) they'll have him as the winner.

It’s a good guide.

A few swings either way are:
They have him getting 2.5 against the Lions and Tigers in rounds 3 & 4. I thought he was clearly best on both of those games so overall could have an extra vote.

They have him getting 2 votes v Port in Round 5. This game will be crucial. I have him down for 1 but he could easily get 0. He was easily best on at half time then got tagged.

They have him getting 2.5 v Giants in Round 8. I reckon he gets 2 and Greene 3.

They have him getting 2 v Suns in Round 11. I’ve got him on 1 but could easily get 0. Happy to be wrong here if someone remembers him being more dominant than I remember.

They have him getting 1 v Port in R13. I think he gets 0.

They have him getting 2.5 in R18 & R19 v Sydney and Essendon. I suspect he’ll only get the 2 v Swans (Gulden) and potentially same v Essendon (Libba was huge).

They have him for 1 v Eagles. He could easily get the 2 here.

So heading into last night I think it’s:
Best case - already on 30 votes
My estimation - 28 votes
Worst case - 25

The crucial games for him are:
R5 v Port
R10 v Crows
R11 v Suns
Getting 3s not 2s in R8 v Giants, R14 v Roos (Cody kicked 6), R18 v Sydney & R19 v Essendon
R23 v Eagles
R24 v Cats

 

[Next Waiting]

Butters at $21 is the danger IMO.

Could be a tie though. Even a 3 way one .... or 4.

Exciting times.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Butters at $21 is the danger IMO.

Could be a tie though. Even a 3 way one .... or 4.

Exciting times.

Where are you seeing $21?

 

[Next Waiting]

Where are you seeing $21?

My mistake. I meant to say (just) 2 weeks ago ... when I got on.

 

[The Inbetweener]

My mistake. I meant to say (just) 2 weeks ago ... when I got on.

Nice one. He’s a genuine Chance. Will come down to if he polls a few 1st early. He’ll come flying home

 

[coxman]

Hopefully Bont for 3 votes, that jump in the pack when he crashed down in the last quarter just in our forward 50 typifies the timeless and courageous attacks on the footy he had done all year. You would think that stands out in an umpire’s eyes. Pretty sure he is number 1 for contested possessions this year so he has been under the umpires noses all year doing the hard stuff

 

[Next Waiting]

Didn't watch the Port game. How many votes for Butters in this one?

 

[The Inbetweener]

Didn't watch the Port game. How many votes for Butters in this one?

1 I think. Maybe 0. Rozee best on and Dusty too. Butters was quiet in the first half but really good in the second

 

[Mojorisin]

Gulden will be getting the 3 votes, 42 touches and 2 goals.
Petracca would be lucky to be amongst the Votes.

 

[StringyDog]

Gulden will be getting the 3 votes, 42 touches and 2 goals.
Petracca would be lucky to be amongst the Votes.

He was big in last half getting Melbourne over line, Gulden gets the three and Fritz gets 2 or 1, Trac gets the other 1 or 2

 

[Mojorisin]

He was big in last half getting Melbourne over line, Gulden gets the three and Fritz gets 2 or 1, Trac gets the other 1 or 2

I think Mills could pinch a vote.

 

[The Inbetweener]

I think Mills could pinch a vote.

Gulden gets the 3 but I reckon the Dees split the 2 & 1 given they won.

Expecting Petracca to get the 2. Going to be a tight finish

 

[ossie_21]

Absolutely criminal if Bont does not win it this year. Possibly even a bigger robbery than 2021.

 

[hutchy31]

Gulden gets the 3 but I reckon the Dees split the 2 & 1 given they won.

Expecting Petracca to get the 2. Going to be a tight finish

Petracca is still around $7. Seems like a decent bet imo. He's flashy and will pick up the odd 1 or 2 votes even in games where the stats might support someone else getting them. Bont probably gets a few of those as well though tbf.

My guess is that Daicos got to 30 before his injury, and I'm not sure Bont or Petracca got to him. That WC loss might not only have cost us a finals spot, but also his Brownlow (I have him getting one vote for that game, after Kelly and Cripps, but I hope I'm wrong).

 

[House_of_Dahl]

I can cope with our season if Bont wins it, he so deserves it. Even the neutrals (mostly) want him to.