List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe94]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[MarcMaverick]

Dream scenario

Curtin @ #6

O'Sullivan @ #11

Alt

Curtin/ O'Sullivan @ #6

Shoenmaker @ #11

Kynan Brown sometime later in the Draft

Pick up Brodie Mclaughlan and Sam Hayes in the DFA

 

[Bluelegs]

No, no guarantees what next year brings or even if there is a player as good as Curtin in the top 3. I have Curtin as a top 3-5 talent in this year's draft. Would need to be more than just a future first.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. No guarantees that Eagles even have a pick as good as what we got from Freo. You'd want at least two first rounders for a pick 6 where Curtin is available.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. No guarantees that Eagles even have a pick as good as what we got from Freo. You'd want at least two first rounders for a pick 6 where Curtin is available.

Yeah, I dont see a world where a deal gets done. We have no interest in pick 23 and you cant trade future firsts two years down the track. If you could it might be doable, something like West Coast gave us a future first in 2024 & 2025 and a future second we gave them 6 and one of our future firsts.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Would much rather Curtin than what would likely be the offer of Curtin for 23 and a future first

 

[Demon 16]

I can’t see the club doing it, but I would.

It’s essentially pick 7 or 8 for almost certainly pick 1 or 2.

 

[Crusty Demon]

Dream scenario

Curtin @ #6

O'Sullivan @ #11

Alt

Curtin/ O'Sullivan @ #6

Shoenmaker @ #11

Kynan Brown sometime later in the Draft

Pick up Brodie Mclaughlan and Sam Hayes in the DFA

Yep, this would be ideal. Don't think O'Sullivan will be at our 2nd pick though. I think if we pass on Curtin it will be a massive mistake.

I got a feeling we're going Leake and Windsor. Both look decent, but I like the combo of Curtin/O'Sullivan. Sures up our defensive stocks.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

It’s essentially pick 7 or 8 for almost certainly pick 1 or 2.

Except its not, because you know who is on the board at the time of your pick and how highly you rate them. If you thought Curtin is a top 5 talent and he slid to pick 10 he isn't worth pick 10, hes worth far more than that.

 

[Topkent]

Except its not, because you know who is on the board at the time of your pick and how highly you rate them. If you thought Curtin is a top 5 talent and he slid to pick 10 he isn't worth pick 10, hes worth far more than that.

Yeah plus what if the top 5 next year is rucks and inside mids. It's a stupid risk for us to take if we're happy with Curtain

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Such a good question I’ve thought about that myself.

I reckon we take it - they are surely bottom 3 if not dead last next year.

Agree they could be last next year so won’t happen.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Yeah plus what if the top 5 next year is rucks and inside mids. It's a stupid risk for us to take if we're happy with Curtain

It’s stacked with great mids from all reports.

 

[Crusty Demon]

It’s stacked with great mids from all reports.

Good year to bottom out then

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

It’s stacked with great mids from all reports.

A lot can change in a year.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

A lot can change in a year.

It is completely irrelevant as WC are not offering their future first, they want pick 2/3 for it this year. It could just as easily be pick 1 next year. That’s why it’s a great deal for us, it’s a lottery but it is the cheapest gamble to move up to such a high spot. 1-2-3 is Reid/Mckercher/Dursuma quality. Worst case it is still a top 5 pick unless WC dramatically improve.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

It is completely irrelevant as WC are not offering their future first, they want pick 2/3 for it this year. It could just as easily be pick 1 next year. That’s why it’s a great deal for us, it’s a lottery but it is the cheapest gamble to move up to such a high spot. 1-2-3 is Reid/Mckercher/Dursuma quality. Worst case it is still a top 5 pick unless WC dramatically improve.

Again, youre not getting it, pick 6 can be worth more than pick 1 any given year. It all depends how highly you rate the players at 6. Current picks will always be worth more than futures because they are improving your list immediately, in the case of West Coast making you better, hence making it more likely your future pick is worse than the current one.

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Again, youre not getting it, pick 6 can be worth more than pick 1 any given year. It all depends how highly you rate the players at 6.

I get your point but pick 6 is the 6th best one year, it is optimistic to say it will be better than 1-3 the next. They are taken in this order for a reason.

 

[Topkent]

I get your point but pick 6 is the 6th best one year, it is optimistic to say it will be better than 1-3 the next. They are taken in this order for a reason.

Bad comparison. If you think Curtains gonna be an absolute gun why roll the dice on getting pick 2 next year maybe just to get a potential gun. Makes no sense

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Bad comparison. If you think Curtains gonna be an absolute gun why roll the dice on getting pick 2 next year maybe just to get a potential gun. Makes no sense

Can go around and round, I guess it comes down to 1 it isn’t an offer I see getting made from WC. 2 what Jason Taylor thinks of pick 6 value this year vs rolling the dice maybe higher or up to 1 next. I’m happy to trust JT both ways if he likes Curtain more fine, Curtain does look amazing.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I get your point but pick 6 is the 6th best one year, it is optimistic to say it will be better than 1-3 the next. They are taken in this order for a reason.

Its not though like I said, you get to see who is on the board come draft night, you might have players taken before 6 ranked below the players available. Different story if youre trading before the draft. Clubs never get draft order right and the top end talent fluctuates year to year. Imagine trading Curtin for pick 1 in the 2016 draft and taking Andrew McGrath.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Can go around and round, I guess it comes down to 1 it isn’t an offer I see getting made from WC. 2 what Jason Taylor thinks of pick 6 value this year vs rolling the dice maybe higher or up to 1 next. I’m happy to trust JT both ways if he likes Curtain more fine, Curtain does look amazing.

We have used the trade our future picks strategy well to build a list. See 2019 with Pickett. We were wiling to go balls deep on Humphrey last year at 6.

 

[mrmonkey]

I have a feeling the club aren't going to wait another year at pick 6, if not Curtin than whomever is the next off their list. (Leake imo). It's a waste of time you get a few years out of Curtin and if they really desperately want him they can pay at the trade table if not we have a gun player.

 

[Demon 16]

Except its not, because you know who is on the board at the time of your pick and how highly you rate them. If you thought Curtin is a top 5 talent and he slid to pick 10 he isn't worth pick 10, hes worth far more than that.

Conversely, what if we rated Curtin as not very high? Theoretically we could get to our pick and feel that the good ones are all gone.

Yeah plus what if the top 5 next year is rucks and inside mids. It's a stupid risk for us to take if we're happy with Curtain

Next years draft is looking like mids at the top end.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Conversely, what if we rated Curtin as not very high? Theoretically we could get to our pick and feel that the good ones are all gone.

Well of course, but you wait til it gets to your pick and assess things then.

I think the fact we traded up from 14 to 11 tells you we rate the players at the top end of this draft. Could have just traded out all together if we thought there was nobody decent and next years class was better.

I view this years draft very similar to last years. Some very good players ~ 1-12 , drop off after that.

 

[Tulip]

It is completely irrelevant as WC are not offering their future first, they want pick 2/3 for it this year. It could just as easily be pick 1 next year. That’s why it’s a great deal for us, it’s a lottery but it is the cheapest gamble to move up to such a high spot. 1-2-3 is Reid/Mckercher/Dursuma quality. Worst case it is still a top 5 pick unless WC dramatically improve.

Remember that this was pick 5, but will be pick 7 because of FA and academies. Why would that not happen again next year? We'd be, at best, trading a few spots up at the expense of a year's development.

 

[Demon 16]

Remember that this was pick 5, but will be pick 7 because of FA and academies. Why would that not happen again next year? We'd be, at best, trading a few spots up at the expense of a year's development.

It’ll probably be pick 8.

There aren’t any early signs of several top end academy picks next year and I can’t see the AFL handing out compensation again to anyone.

The only possibility might be if WCE don’t finish bottom and a club that finishes lower than them loses a big free agent. I’d suggest it’s unlikely.

It would most likely be pick 8 this year for pick 1 next year and you’d expect that we’d have to throw in something additional to get WCE onboard.

 

[Lord Nev]

It’ll probably be pick 8.

There aren’t any early signs of several top end academy picks next year and I can’t see the AFL handing out compensation again to anyone.

The only possibility might be if WCE don’t finish bottom and a club that finishes lower than them loses a big free agent. I’d suggest it’s unlikely.

It would most likely be pick 8 this year for pick 1 next year and you’d expect that we’d have to throw in something additional to get WCE onboard.

Just as a bit of a watch, free agent compo could potentially come into play again. The following players are free agents next year from potentially lower teams:

Andy McGrath, Sean Darcy, Cam Zurhaar, and Dion Prestia, along with Dusty, Grimes and Yeo who wouldn't be at that same level.

You'd expect WC to be rubbish again, but I mean most people thought the Pies were in for a world of hurt in 2022, so it's a pretty big gamble.