List Mgmt. 2023 Draft & Trade Hypotheticals

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Key Trade & Draft Dates
Key Dates:

Trade Period, October 6–18
  • Restricted & Unrestricted Free Agency Period: Friday, October 6, 9am – Friday October 13, 5pm (bid matching ends Monday October 16, 5pm)
  • Trade Period (1), picks & players: Monday, October 9, 9am – Wednesday October 18, 7.30pm
Quiet Period, October 19–November 20
  • Trade Period (2), picks only: Monday, October 23, 9am – Friday November 10, 5pm
  • List Lodgement 1*: Tuesday, October 31, 2pm
  • Delisted Free Agency Period (1): Wednesday, November 1, 9am – Wednesday November 8, 5pm
  • Delisted Free Agency Period (2): Friday, November 10, 9am–5pm
  • List Lodgement 2*: Tuesday, November 14, 2pm
Draft Period, November 20–22
  • Round 1 of the National Draft: Monday, November 20, time and venue TBA
  • Trade Period (3), picks only: Tuesday, November 21, 5.45pm–6.30pm
  • Round 2–end of the National Draft: Tuesday, November 21, 7pm until completion
  • Rookie Promotions: Tuesday, November 21, after the National Draft
  • Delisted Free Agency Period (3): Tuesday, November 21, after the National Draft
  • List Lodgement 3*: Wednesday, November 22, 10am (optional; required for those participating in the PSD)
  • Pre-Season Draft: Wednesday, November 22, 3pm
  • Rookie Draft: Wednesday, November 22, 3.20pm
  • Final List Lodgement*: Thursday, November 23, 4pm
* List lodgement dates are yet to be made public, so are approximate based on past history and the requirements of the AFL Rules. When lists are lodged, the number of players on the list must not exceed maximum list sizes. At the same time, clubs must provide the AFL with estimates of total player payments in the current and following year, which must prove the club is not and will not exceed the salary cap. (AFL Rules 5.3, 6.1, 6.8, 7.2, 7.9)
 
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Few reasons:

Grundy is not in best 22 for Dees and is tak8ng up a large amount of cap. We would be doing the dees a favour purely taking his wage from their cap.

Secondly, why pay pick 12 for someone who cost pick 27 a year ago. His value has not gone up and if he choses us, it would be around dame value.


Because the owner wants that price potentially and pick 12 isn't that great

Grundy would be our best ruck by a country mile, Melbourne have Gawn
 
Because the owner wants that price potentially and pick 12 isn't that great

Grundy would be our best ruck by a country mile, Melbourne have Gawn

They can ask, but if he wants to leave and they have hugely pricey ruck in their VFL well, that is on them.

Salary cap is an asset
 

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On Ben McKay.

McKay and McCartin have had to spend the majority of their careers playing on the number one key forward. In spite of this, they've both been effective intercept markers.

This season McKay was ranked equal first for intercept marks per game (I've filtered the below data to exclude anyone that played less than 6 games - a quarter of the season)
Tom sits in 21st, which I think is a bloody good effort from him given the issues he's had.

Put the two of them in the same backline, with one of them getting an easier match-up, and it's the best intercept marking combination in the competition this season.

As per above data (combined intercept marks per game):
McKay + McCartin: 6.5
Weitering + Kemp: 6.4
Barrass + McGovern: 6.3
Stewart + Ratugolea: 6.2
Lever + May: 5.7
And that's with both of them predominantly taking the best forward.

Think about what they could be capable of in the same backline. Could be our Lever and May, our Barrass and McGovern.
 
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And although some will inevitably say that stats don't tell the full story - how many other players are there on the above list who you wouldn't be keen to pick-up without having to give up a draft pick?
 
Mckay and McCartin sound like

a) Firm of solicitors
b) Folk duo
c) A pair of Mountain Ranges
Option C has a good aura to it for a pair of key defenders.
 
On Ben McKay.

McKay and McCartin have had to spend the majority of their careers playing on the number one key forward. In spite of this, they've both been effective intercept markers.

This season McKay was ranked equal first for intercept marks per game (I've filtered the below data to exclude anyone that played less than 6 games - a quarter of the season)

Tom sits in 21st, which I think is a bloody good effort from him given the issues he's had.

Put the two of them in the same backline, with one of them getting an easier match-up, and it's the best intercept marking combination in the competition this season.

As per above data (combined intercept marks per game):

And that's with both of them predominantly taking the best forward.

Think about what they could be capable of in the same backline. Could be our Lever and May, our Barrass and McGovern.
As someone with zero interest in watching North games and even less interest in following Ben McKay’s career, that chart makes me feel a hell of a lot better.
 
People also need to remember that Melbourne got Grundy in a fire sale by Collingwood. Good on them for taking the opportunity. Now it’s not a fire sale so you would expect Melbourne to get a better pick than they gave.

Which is not to say that we should accept overs, of course we should go for the best deal possible. Hiwever, I’d prefer we err by offering too much and securing Grundy’s services than offering too little and missing out.

I feel like Sydney has more to gain by getting Grundy than Melbourne has to gain by getting rid of him - I think the trade will reflect that.
Are there any other suitors for Grundy apart from us and Port? I'm not aware of any but I may be wrong. If we are the only two, then we are in a situation where we can offer Melbourne one of 11, 21 or 32. Port can't offer them anything better than 37.
It's almost like playing blind man's bluff with the PSD. Will we stand strong and risk getting nothing OR get the deal done. As much as we need a ruck, I'm sure that Melbourne don't want $700K of their cap being wasted playing VFL. Someone mentioned earlier that they have cap space this year but why waste it. That is even worse than paying McKay $200K more than he is worth in order to get the deal done.
As a result, I don't see that Melbourne are in a position to say no to whatever our offer is.
 
On Ben McKay.

McKay and McCartin have had to spend the majority of their careers playing on the number one key forward. In spite of this, they've both been effective intercept markers.

This season McKay was ranked equal first for intercept marks per game (I've filtered the below data to exclude anyone that played less than 6 games - a quarter of the season)

Tom sits in 21st, which I think is a bloody good effort from him given the issues he's had.

Put the two of them in the same backline, with one of them getting an easier match-up, and it's the best intercept marking combination in the competition this season.

As per above data (combined intercept marks per game):

And that's with both of them predominantly taking the best forward.

Think about what they could be capable of in the same backline. Could be our Lever and May, our Barrass and McGovern.
As encouraging as that is, and it is, I still suspect that we have not offered enough to get it done, if we have offered at all (knowing what appears to be the buy-in). To me, Melican staying is the biggest clue. Time will tell of course.
 
The GC pick 4 to bulldogs for there two first round 10 and 17 could work cause GC is open to trading 10 to maximise there options

That’s why many think Bulldogs are better placed then Sydney

Obviously that only works if no one bids on Croft until after bulldogs picks which is a possibility
 

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As encouraging as that is, and it is, I still suspect that we have not offered enough to get it done, if we have offered at all (knowing what appears to be the buy-in). To me, Melican staying is the biggest clue. Time will tell of course.
Even with Melican staying, Paddy's retired, it's likely Gould will get delisted, and Rampe doesn't have much time left. We still need more key defenders on the list, especially with Melican's durability (or lack thereof).

By all reports, he's pretty much already out the door, and we appear to be the frontrunner. It might depend on if we have the cap space to get him as a free agent as well as Grundy, assuming we are a legitimate chance of getting both of them.
 
Yes ,you are correct , so saying 12 means nothing at this stage . I'm hoping we go with Sweet instead of wasting our first pick
I don't see Sweet as any more of a speculative pick than Ladhams was. In fact probably even less. At least Ladhams was playing predominantly in the firsts.
Grundy is a proven quality ruck. For all those who want to say he's slow, can't get around the ground anymore and is past it, I say "you're wrong". If we want to be a serious contender over the next 3-4 years, Grundy is exactly what we need. Sweet MAY become a good ruckman in the future but there's an equal likelihood that he won't.
 
Our midfield isn’t really competitive against decent sides atm, particularly with Parker’s (and Mills’) seeming decline. I know most are blaming hobbled Hickey for our lack of clearances, but I think we struggle there with any ruck. An experienced in and under type should be an absolute priority. Instead we’re wooing a 30 year old ruck who can’t play forward and who’s been a fringe player at his last two clubs and a North Melbourne defender. It’s kinda ridiculous.

We ain’t challenging next year. There are big problems with our list management. Seems they can’t even identify what we need correctly
So pleased to hear your positivity. Think you are wrong on every level but I suppose you're entitled to your opinion as poor as it may be,
 
After the academy matches 12 will most likely be 15 (1112). 17 would be nice but 15 looks more likely, going out to 18 (985). That's 127 = pick 62. Won't happen.
Pick 15 with their 34 out to 37 (483) coming back 625 = pick 31 but we may as well give them our 31 out to 34
Or we give them our 22 out to 25.
Not sure steak knife picks are any use to them unless they are chasing GC pick 4.
Points are quite irrelevant to a team that does not have any academy selections unless, as you say, they are looking at using the pick for GC.
 
Not a good example the last 2 years.
They're both still very good players despite (McGovern especially) playing crippled. Replace the best 2 key defenders of at least half the teams in the top 8 with them and it's an upgrade assuming they're fit.

They were the best key defensive duo in the comp for a period not too long ago.
 
Absolutely, but Brodie went backwards this year and couldn't break into the team despite O'Meara being pretty average. Obviously, the Dockers also boast Brayshaw and Serong so it's not exactly the easiest midfield to break into but I'm not convinced he would solve all our problems either. He is also contracted until 2026 so the Dockers could play hard ball if they really wanted to and I don't think he's worth the fight/draft capital required to pry him out when we have other business to focus on.
Agreed. There are more important things to get done first but if we could get him for a third round pick, I think it could be to our advantage.
 
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